LPPF Penurunan Tipis Kinerja 3Q18 20181102 NHKS Company Report (Bahasa)

Matahari Department Store (LPPF) Tbk

  Penurunan Tipis Kinerja 3Q18 Company Report | Nov 2, 2018 Sumbangsih Kenaikan Segmen Penjualan Ritel

  Secara tahunan, kinerja LPPF pada 3Q18 menurun tipis. Kinerja pendapatan

Hold

  3Q18 tumbuh menjadi Rp1,86 triliun (+2,9% y-y) yang disumbang oleh pertumbuhan 4,6% y-y di segmen penjualan ritel. Kendati demikian, penurunan Dec 2019 TP (IDR) 5,480

  

tipis segmen penjualan konsinyasi dan kenaikan 5,1% y-y di beban pokok Consensus Price (IDR) 9,033

TP to Consensus Price -39.3% pendapatan turut mengikis kinerja margin dan bottom line. Laba bersih vs. Last Price +13.5%

  3Q18 pun menyusut 9,5% y-y. Di sisi lain, SSSG LPPF yang sempat menyentuh angka -26,0% pada 3Q17 hanya tumbuh menjadi 3,6% pada 3Q18. Meskipun demikian, penjualan LPPF pada 9M18 pun tercatat naik 3,1% y-y.

  Shares data Last Price (IDR) 4,850

  Strategi LPPF untuk memperbanyak kolaborasi dengan brand lain, seperti

  Price date as of Oct 31, 2018

  Disney, Marvel dan produk-produk activewear (Nike dan Puma) memacu 52 wk range (Hi/Lo) 11,650 / 4,650 pertumbuhan ritel. Namun, hal ini

  belum cukup mumpuni untuk mengerek Free float (%)

  84.1 Outstanding sh.(mn) 2,918 pendapatan LPPF. Selain itu, kami mengamati bahwa pada 3Q18 penjualan

  Market Cap (IDR bn) 14,094

  melalui matahari.com menanjak 24,2% y-y, disumbang oleh sebagian besar

  Market Cap (USD mn) 936 konsumen offline yang berpindah ke kanal online. Avg. Trd Vol - 3M (mn)

  11.0 Avg. Trd Val - 3M (bn)

  67.5 Akan Menambah Satu Gerai pada 4Q18 Foreign Ownership 71.3%

  Kendatipun tidak ada penambahan gerai baru pada 3Q18, LPPF akan menambah satu gerai baru di wilayah Gresik, Jawa Timur. Kontribusi penjualan dari Pulau Jawa (di luar Jabodetabek) sendiri mencapai 53,6% pada 3Q18. Trade, Services & Investment

  Retail

  Untuk 2019, LPPF memproyeksikan penambahan 5 gerai baru (vs. 3 gerai pada

  Bloomberg LPPF IJ FY18E) dengan penutupan 3 gerai yang kurang menguntungkan. Reuters LPPF.JK

  Target Harga Rp5.480

  Kami menggunakan estimasi forward P/E sebesar 7,5x (2SD di bawah rata-rata

  Share Price Performance dua tahun terakhir). Target harga ini mengimplikasikan P/E 2018E sebesar 8,1x.

  Saat ini, LPPF diperdagangkan pada P/E 2018E sebesar 7,1x.

  Matahari Department Store Tbk | Summary (IDR bn) 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F

  Revenue 10,024 10,380 10,739 11,183

  Revenue growth 1.3% 3.6% 3.5% 4.1%

  EBITDA 2,670 2,802 2,975 3,164 Net Profit 1,907 1,981 2,126 2,258 EPS (IDR) 654 679 728 774

  EPS growth 3.9% 7.3% 6.2%

• -5.6%

  YTD

  1M

  3M

  12M

  BVPS (IDR) 798 1,019 1,272 1,536

  Abs. Ret. -51.7% -29.5% -39.2% -52.4%

  EBITDA margin 26.6% 27.0% 27.7% 28.3%

  Rel. Ret. -43.5% -27.7% -36.0% -49.2%

  NPM 19.0% 19.1% 19.8% 20.2% ROE 91.2% 74.7% 63.6% 55.1% ROA 37.1% 34.3% 32.5% 30.7% ROIC 81.2% 66.8% 57.1% 50.2% P/E 15.3x 7.1x 6.7x 6.3x P/BV 12.5x 4.8x 3.8x 3.2x

Michael Tjahjadi

  EV/EBITDA 10.3x 4.3x 3.7x 3.3x

• 62 21 797 6202, ext:114

  DPS (IDR) 457 475 510 510

  michael@nhsec.co.id Dividend yield 4.6% 9.8% 10.5% 10.5%

  Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, NHKS Research Please consider the rating criteria & important disclaimer

  Source: Company, NHKS Research LPPF Quarterly Net Profit | 3Q16 - 3Q18

  Source: Company, NHKS Research LPPF Quarterly Revenue (IDR bn) | 3Q16 - 3Q18

  Margin Ratios | 3Q17 - 3Q18 Source: Company, NHKS Research

  Number of Stores | 2014 - 2019E Source: Company, NHKS Research

  Performance Highlights SSSG by Region | 1Q16 - 3Q18

  Source: Company, NHKS Research Third Quarter Gross Revenue by Region

  Source: Company, NHKS Research

  3Q18 review (IDR bn)

  3Q18

  3Q17

  4Q17

  1Q18

  2Q18

  4Q18E Actual Estimate y-y q-q surprise

  Revenue 1,810 2,476 1,962 3,954 1,862 1,888 2.9% -52.9% -1.4% 2,603

  1.5% -55.1% -4.4%

  Gross Profit 1,118 1,490 1,223 2,528 1,134 1,186 1,600

  Gross Margin 61.7% 60.1% 62.3% 63.9% 60.9% 62.8% 61.5%

• -0.8% -3.0% -1.9%

  EBIT 204 498 302 1,385 184 236 -9.6% -86.7% -22.0% 622

  EBIT Margin 11.3% 20.1% 15.4% 35.0% 9.9% 12.5% -1.4% -25.1% -2.6% 23.9%

  EBITDA 278 577 372 1,460 265 315 -4.7% -81.9% -15.9% 705

  EBITDA Margin 15.3% 23.3% 19.0% 36.9% 14.2% 16.7% -1.1% -22.7% -2.5% 27.1% Net Margin 9.2% 16.2% 12.6% 27.8% 8.1% 9.9% -1.1% -19.7% -1.8% 18.6% Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research Earnings revision (IDR bn) 2018E 2019F 2020F

  10,380 10,739 11,183

• Revised Revenue
>Previous 10,423 10,828 11> -Change -0.4% -0.8% -0.9%

  6,486 6,710 6,986

• Revised Gross Profit
• Previous 6,548 6,783 7,068
• Change -0.9% -1.1% -1.2%
• Revised 62.5% 62.5% 62.5% Gross Margin

  62.8% 62.6% 62.6%

• Previous EBIT -Revised 2,494 2,662 2> -Previous 2,550 2,704 2
• Change -2.2% -1.6% -1.7%

  24.0% 24.8% 25.3%

  EBIT Margin -Revised

• Previous 24.5% 25.0% 25.5% EBITDA -Revised 2,802 2,975 3> -Previous 2,856 3,026 3
• Change -1.9% -1.7% -1.6%

  27.0% 27.7% 28.3%

  EBITDA Margin -Revised

• Previous 27.4% 27.9% 28.5%
• Revised

  Net Profit 1,981 2,126 2,258

• -Previous 2,016 2,155 2,293
• -Change -1.8% -1.4% -1.5%
• Revised 19.1% 19.8% 20.2% Net Margin

  19.3% 19.9% 20.3%

• Previous

  Source: NHKS research

  Sekilas tentang LPPF

  LPPF merupakan perusahaan yang bergerak di sektor ritel melalui merek Matahari. LPPF didirikan pada 1958 sebagai toko pakaian anak-anak di daerah Jakarta Pusat. Bisnis LPPF yang mencakup segmen penjualan eceran, konsinyasi, dan pendapatan jasa mengincar konsumen kelas menengah dan menengah-bawah. LPPF yang memiliki 155 gerai di 74 kota di Indonesia mendominasi pangsa pasar ritel Indonesia.

  LPPF melakukan ekspansi dengan membuka gerai baru serta mengembangkan online platform Matahari.com untuk memperkuat pangsa pasar. Selain itu, LPPF juga menerapkan strategi penyempurnaan program marketing dan merchandising dengan menggunakan big data analytics.

  Industri Ritel Indonesia di ASEAN

  Indonesia merupakan negara dengan jumlah penduduk terbesar di ASEAN. Hal ini menjadikan Indonesia sebagai tempat yang menguntungkan bagi bisnis ritel. Pasar ritel Indonesia dikuasai oleh LPPF, RALS, MAPI dengan gerai yang tersebar di seluruh Indonesia. Selain itu, stabilnya harga komoditas turut mengerek kinerja pendapatan LPPF diluar Pulau Jawa, khususnya pada Industri ritel di pasar ASEAN cenderung lesu, sebagai contoh angka pertumbuhan penjualan negatif di Singapura dan Thailand.

  Hal ini membuat para pelaku industri ritel di ASEAN harus lebih ketat menekan beban operasional untuk mengimbangi pasar. Di sisi margin, pelaku industri ritel di Indonesia mampu membukukan margin yang lebih tinggi dibanding kompetitornya di ASEAN.

  ASEAN Retailers Company Market Revenue Net Profit Net Profit Asset Net ROE P/E Company Cap LTM LTM Growth P/BV (USD mn) Margin LTM LTM (USD mn) (USD mn) (USD mn) LTM Indonesia

  LPPF 936 399 737 136 -0.86% 18.5% 85.6% 7.4x 5.7x RALS 566 360 411 41 36.52% 9.9% 15.7% 14.3x 2.2x MAPI 882 841 1,326 46 91.23% 3.5% 14.0% 22.9x 2.6x

  Singapore

  Metro Holdings 658 1,299 100 113 57.75% 112.9% 10.49% 6.0x 0.6x

  Malaysia

  Parkson Holdings Bhd 86 2,219 978 (24) 17.75% -2.5% -4.30% N/A 0.2x

  Thailand

  Robinson PCL 2,177 846 814 89 2.02% 10.9% 18.26% 24.7x 4.3x

  Philippines

  SM Investments Corp 20,357 19,205 7,596 670 5.67% 8.8% 10.72% 31.5x 3.3x

  Source: Bloomberg

  Multiple Valuation Forward P/E band | Last 2 years Dynamic Forward P/E band | Last 2 years Source: NHKS research Source: NHKS research Rating and Target Price Update Target Price Revision Date Rating Target Price Last Price Consensus vs Last Price vs Consensus

  03/02/2018 Buy 13,750 (Dec 2018) 10,800 12,751 +27.3% +7.8% 05/07/2018 Buy 11,250 (Dec 2018) 9,400 12,485 +19.7% -9.9% 09/28/2018 Buy 9,270 (Dec 2019) 6,925 9,611 +33.9% -3.5% 11/01/2018 Hold 5,480 (Dec 2019) 4,830 9,033 +13.5% -39.3%

  Source: NHKS research, Bloomberg Analyst Coverage Rating Closing and Target Price Source: Bloomberg

  Source: NHKS research

NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia (NHKS) stock ratings

  1. Period: End of year target price

  2. Rating system based on a stock’s absolute return from the date of publication

   Buy : Greater than +15%

   Hold : -15% to +15%  Sell : Less than -15% Summary of Financials

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