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1. INTRODUCTION
Background
The Indonesian government is planning to build four nuclear power plants PLTNs until 2025 to meet domestic demand for electricity based on Presidential
Decree No. 52006 on national energy policy. With increasing number of population and efforts to provide sufficient power supply to run its growing
industry sector, Indonesia needs to have efficient power plant to cope with growing energy needs at home. Nuclear power plant is the most possible option to
fulfill those needs due to its reliable and low-cost operation character. In accordance with Act No. 10 Year 1997 on Nuclear Energy and the latest
Presidential Decree No. 64 Year 2005, BATAN has been stipulated as a Non Departmental Government Institution which is under and responsible to the
President. The main duties of BATAN are to conduct research, development and the beneficial applications of nuclear energy in accordance with the laws and
regulations.
According to the result of the study, BATAN has selected two sites for two
nuclear power plants; it would recommend sites in Muntok, West Bangka, and Permis, South Bangka Figure 1. Bangka was chosen for its relative proximity to
Indonesias most populous islands of Java and Sumatra. The nuclear power plant in Bangka is expected to supply 40 percent of electricity needs in Sumatra, Java
and Bali.
Figure 1 Location Interest Areas for Nuclear Power Plants in Bangka The geological condition of Indonesia is prone to natural hazard. Indonesia
is located in triple junction of tree mega plates, the Pacific plate which moves
2 westward with the average velocity of 6 cm a year, and the Indo-Australian plate
that moves northward 4 cm a year, collides with Eurasia plate in Indonesian region. Areas located in the
edge of Earth’s tectonic plate tend to have high earthquake susceptibility. Because of the frequency and magnitude of earthquakes
in Indonesia, particular attention is paid to seismic issues in the sitting, design and construction of nuclear power plants.
The Bangka is not an island generally associated in the public mind with the earthquakes. However, the Bangka Island is nowhere near in the same as high
seismicity areas such as Sumatera and Java Island, it nevertheless has a moderate rate of seismicity, sufficiently high to pose a potential hazard to sensitive
installations such as dams and nuclear power plants. The main earthquake events are along Sumatera Island at the western part as Semangko fault manifestation and
their presence has significant affects to Bangka Island Figure 2. Based on historical main earthquakes were occurred the June 1914 which destruction
reached the very end of the Malayan Peninsula, Singapore, Bangka and Belitung and historical devastating a big earthquake were also occurred in September 12,
2007 with magnitude of 8.4 within more than 200 km radius of Bangka Island in Bengkulu. And the last event BMKG recorded the magnitude 4.9 earthquake
occurred in north part Bangka Island at 18:41:22 UTC on 1 December 2007 18 kilometers northeast of the Jebus City based on earthquake historical data that
Bangka Belitung had a moderate risk for earthquakes. This is the same level of risk that it assessed for the region of Fukushima caused by the Great Tohoku
earthquake on March 11, 2011. As a result, the last years have seen a large effort by Indonesia nuclear agency BATAN and BMKG to improve instrumental
monitoring of earthquakes and to research and revise the historical seismicity.
Figure 2 Earthquakes Distribution in Bangka Island and Surrounding fromperiod 1963
– 2012 BMKG
3 Experience of the March 11 2011, Great Tohoku earthquake clearly
demonstrated that the earthquakes might be the dominating contributors to the overall risk of nuclear power plants. The information of earthquake vulnerability
areas may indicate historical data concerning phenomena that have potential produces adverse effects on safety areas. Engineering solution is needed to
mitigate some potential effects of external events through design, particularly for a nuclear power plant that is located in an earthquake prone area. When solutions
either are practicable or can demonstrate as being adequate for mitigation of the effect of earthquake phenomena, it may be a good selection for an alternative
nuclear power plant site. Future earthquake loss potential is even greater with population growth and economic development in this earthquake prone country.
Therefore, earthquake hazard analysis is very important for evaluating the safety of existing critical structures and for estimating the possible risk to critical
structures in planning stages of Nuclear Power Plant.
With geographic information systems GIS based multi criteria decision analysis, analysis of arealocation of hazards can be performed using multiple
seismic data and data geological more quickly and accurately. Multi criteria decision analysis in this study using a model Simple Additive Weighting SAW.
The next process is the integration of data interpretation results which was done by using geographic information systems.
Determining the earthquake hazard areas is very important to decision makers for planning and management of activities. Decision making is actually a
choice or selection of alternative course of action in many fields, both the social and natural sciences. The inevitable problems in these fields necessitated a
detailed analysis considering a large number of different criteria. All these criteria need to be evaluated for decision analysis. Geographic Information System GIS
provides more and better information for decision making situations. It allows the decision makers to identify a list, meeting a predefined set of criteria with the
overlay process, and the multi-criteria decision analysis within GIS is used to develop and evaluate alternative plans that may facilitate compromise among
interested parties. Moreover, overlay weighted model method was used in analyzing and finding the earthquake hazard areas in Bangka Island. The approach
proposed here allows planners and housing developers to examine the susceptible areas for information about the risk areas likely to be earthquake. Therefore, the
actual purpose of this study depending on geologic conditions, some combination of ground shaking, surface faulting, and micro tremor data to identify which may
be the most serious potential earthquake-related hazard in an area.
Therefore, based on Simple Additive Weighting SAW, the weight and
rank value are assigned to criteria layer and alternatives classes of each criterion respectively. Then the earthquake susceptibility hazard areas map is
prepared using Arc GIS platform and special analyst extension and weighted overlay technique.
An earthquake of magnitude of 6.3 on the Richter scale struck Yogyakarta and surrounding areas in Central Java at 05:54 hrs local time on 27 May 2006. It
caused widespread destruction, injuries and loss of lives, with villages in the more remote areas south of Yogyakarta as well as in and around Bantul the most
severely affected. Evaluation of potential and prediction of earthquakes hazard
4 area based on experience Yogyakarta earthquake, various studies have employed
geographic information systems GIS to determine earthquake hazard areas problems. Setiawan 2009 applied GIS approach to produce seismicity
microzonation map based on Simple Additive Weighting SAW and Analytical Hierarchical Process AHP models in Yogyakarta and surrounding. Nugroho
2011 used GIS and Multicriteria Decision Analysis to determine the area of hazard, vulnerability, and risk based on the occurrence of the earthquake in Bantul
Regency, Yogyakarta Province. Previous research by the method of GIS analysis in Yogyakarta showed that the accurate this method relative closely with damage
caused by Yogyakarta earthquake. An interesting fact of map results if we compare with the damage area caused of earthquake year 2006 showing the
relevant. There is a significant spatial relationship between the patterns of the total damage to buildings on the Yogyakarta earthquake of 2006 with the zoning
earthquake hazard areas value.
Objective
The main objective of this research is to identify the earthquake hazardous areas in feasibility site for Nuclear Power Plant in Bangka Island
.
Problem Statement
Bangka and Belitung Islands are located on the area with relatively low seismicity. There are no significant earthquakes occurred in Bangka-Belitung
Islands Province. The main earthquake events are along Sumatera Island at the western part as Semangko Fault manifestation. In Bangka Island, no casualty or
damage was reported caused by earthquake. However, it is necessary to take action to prevent any damages occurred by earthquake in future. The problem in
this study is to identify potential damage that can be caused by earthquake in Bangka Island, although there is no previous damage data found.
Scope of Study
This research is focusing how to determine earthquake hazard areas with simulation in GIS. GIS spatial analysis is used to simulate for hazard map model
which represent geological and geophysical information combination. The Earthquake hazard areas maps applying by simple overlay weighted model.
Benefits
The benefits of this research are the availability of earthquake susceptibility maps to identify areas of earthquake hazards used of decision makers for planning
and management in feasibility site for Nuclear Power Plant.
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2. METHODOLOGY
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