Results About Immigration and Natives’ School Attainment

in Column 4 that controls for school resources. The fi nding in Columns 5 through 7 that the effect is somewhat stronger among natives with less- educated parents lends further weight to this interpretation. The next row shows results about homework hours, providing some weak evidence of positive immigration effects. I hypothesize that relatively large local fl ows of immigrants with little formal schooling would raise the labor market return to AP classes and lower the labor mar- ket return to vocational classes. The sixth and seventh rows in Table 4 confi rm this hypothesis. Native- born students in higher- immigration CZs are more likely to take AP classes and less likely to take vocational classes. The effects are stronger among students with less- educated parents Columns 5–7. The eighth row in Table 4 shows a positive effect of immigration on native- born students’ grades, and the effect is very consistent across 2SLS specifi cations. The fi nal two rows of results in Table 4 display the effect of low- skilled immigration to the CZ on the test scores of native- born students. The effects are uniformly positive and statistically signifi cant, using alternative controls for the subsample of students with less- educated parents Columns 5–7. A coeffi cient of 5 as in Column 2 for eighth grade tests implies that a one standard deviation across CZs increase in low- skilled immigration fl ow 53.7 percent causes natives’ test scores to increase by 2.15 percen- tiles. The test score increases are somewhat larger in 12 th grade, which is consistent with cumulative effects. The results about test scores are related to a previous literature that mostly em- phasizes how native- born students are affected by immigrants in their own school. The focus is on the school quality effect of immigration rather than the effect of labor market expectations. For example, Diette and Oyelere 2012 shows that immigration fl ows to North Carolina affected test scores of natives. Interestingly, low- ability natives increased their scores while high- ability natives decreased theirs, which is consistent with the dual mechanisms affecting natives differently by pre- existing ability. Perhaps native students who are likely to drop out of high school “low- ability” in Diette and Oyelere 2012 are more likely to increase their motivation and performance in the midst of expected labor market competition. On the other hand, higher- ability natives appear more affected by a reallocation of schooling resources and see their test scores fall.

VI. Results About Immigration and Natives’ School Attainment

Table 5 illustrates the relationship between local low- skilled immigra- tion and educational attainment of local native- born youth. The three rows of results describe different levels of education: receiving a high school diploma, attending postsecondary school, and earning a postsecondary credential. The regressions re- fl ect smaller—though still sizable—samples than those used in the previous section because this section’s samples include only respondents kept after subsampling for the fi nal followup survey. Table 5’s specifi cations are analogous to those in Table 4. Overall, low- skilled immigration increases the educational attainment of natives. The dependent variable in the fi rst row is an indicator for obtaining a high school diploma not a GED credential. Column 2’s 2SLS coeffi cient of 0.0501 implies that McHenry 55 Table 5 Immigration and Educational Attainment of Natives 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 All Respondents Mother Had High School or Less OLS 2SLS 2SLS Control for Mother’s Education Years Control for Grade 8 School Quality Control for Mother’s Education Years Control for Grade 8 School Quality Dependent variable: received high school diploma no GEDs 0.0167 0.0501 0.0302 0.0601 0.0405 0.0309 0.0608 0.016 0.0256 0.0223 0.0259 0.0385 0.0369 0.0397 Dependent variable: ever attended a postsecondary education program 0.0337 0.152 0.1152 0.1707 0.1974 0.1847 0.2213 0.02 0.0348 0.0272 0.0343 0.0503 0.0452 0.0517 Dependent variable: earned a postsecondary education credential 0.0316 0.1126 0.0714 0.1256 0.1087 0.0996 0.1175 0.0241 0.0472 0.0357 0.0418 0.0516 0.047 0.0523 Notes: p 0.01 p 0.05 p 0.1. Data from the NELS:88. Dependent variables are indicators for educational attainment. Table only shows the coeffi cient on 1990 immigration from OLS or 2SLS specifi cations instrument for contemporary immigration is a prediction of low- skilled immigration to the CZ using previous immigrant populations. All models also include a constant, indicators for gender and race ethnicity, and 1990 eighth grade CZ characteristics: percent adult population with a bachelor’s degree, percent population without a high school diploma, and indicators for urbanicity fi ve of them and region three of them. See text for list of school quality controls. Full sample size is approximately 8,820, and sample with less- educated mothers has approximately 3,880 observations rounded to the nearest ten for confi dentiality restric- tions. Standard errors clustered at eighth grade CZ level. if the local immigration fl ow increases by one standard deviation of its distribution across CZs 0.43 or 53.7 percent, the high school graduation rate among natives will increase by about two percentage points. This is a large effect. The high school gradu- ation rate is an important social metric that has been stubbornly low in the United States. Column 3 includes a control for mother’s years of schooling. Although the speci- fi cations already control for the educational distribution of adults in the CZ, it is still possible that something other than immigration about high- immigration CZs induces children to get more education. For example, growing labor markets may quickly attract highly educated workers 23 whose children tend to get plenty of edu- cation as well. The control for mother’s education should capture such an effect directly. The control predicts higher schooling among respondents and reduces the coeffi cient on immigration though it remains positive. The specifi cation in Column 4 of Table 5 controls for school resources and generates a larger, positive effect. Columns 5 through 7 show the same results for the subsample of the NELS:88 stu- dent population whose mothers did not pursue education past high school. Because mother’s education predicts own education, children of less- educated mothers are probably more likely to compete with low- skilled immigrants in the labor market. However, the fi rst row of results in Table 5 implies that children of more- and less- educated mothers react about the same to low- skilled immigration. The standard errors in Columns 5 through 7 are higher because of the smaller sample size, but the point estimates are similar. The second row of results in Table 5 repeats specifi cations from the fi rst row using a new dependent variable: an indicator for the respondent attending any postsecond- ary schooling. All specifi cations reveal strong positive effects. Column 2 implies that a one standard deviation across CZs increase in local immigration fl ow raises the college- going rate among natives by 6.5 percentage points 100×0.43×0.152. The control in Column 3 for mother’s education lowers the effect somewhat but it remains statistically and economically signifi cant. Inclusion of school quality con- trols in Column 4 strengthens the result. The effect on postsecondary attendance is larger than the effect on high school completion, implying that native- born high school graduates not just dropouts are particularly affected by local immigration. Columns 5 through 7 show that immigration’s effect on postsecondary attendance is even larger in the subsample of youth with less- educated mothers. There exists evidence of a positive return to postsecondary credits, even for students who do not earn a degree Kane and Rouse 1995. So, immigration’s positive effect on natives’ postsecondary attendance probably increases their future earnings, holding other things fi xed. The third results row in Table 5 documents the relationship between local immigra- tion in eighth grade and the likelihood that a native- born student acquires a postsec- ondary credential. The dependent variable is an indicator for earning by age 26 any postsecondary degree, including certifi cates, licenses, and associate’s and bachelor’s degrees. The results here imply that immigration induces local natives not just to start postsecondary school but also to fi nish. The effects are somewhat smaller than the 23. Wozniak 2010 shows that highly educated workers are more likely to move in response to local labor market conditions than less- educated workers. effects on attendance only, which is not surprising if immigration induces marginal college- goers to stay in school after getting the high school diploma. It is signifi cant that immigration induces local natives to complete postsecondary educational pro- grams, which yield high returns in the labor market. The larger effect on postsecondary attendance than on high school completion im- plies that the effect of immigration is strongest on high school graduates on the margin of attending postsecondary education. These are not all four- year college degree pro- grams. Immigration appears to induce native high school graduates to start and—to a lesser extent—complete license and certifi cate programs, perhaps to differentiate their labor skills from those of immigrants.

VII. Results About Immigration and Natives’ Early- Career Jobs