Results About Immigration and Natives’ Efforts and Success at School

differ because of missing data for some variables and because some variables for ex- ample, educational attainment are measured in the smaller subsampled fi nal followup survey. Column 2 in the fi rst panel of the table shows that half of the sample is women and most respondents are white and not Hispanic the omitted raceethnicity category. The average respondent’s mother had a little more than 13 years of school. Columns 4 and 6 break down NELS:88 respondents’ characteristics by the 1980–90 low- skilled immigrant growth rates in their eighth grade CZs. The differences in Column 7 are somewhat small, except that the share of Hispanic respondents in high- immigration CZs is much higher than in low- immigration CZs. Because much of the contemporary im- migration was from Central America, and ethnic groups tend to cluster near each other, this is not surprising. Mother’s education is also higher in places with more immigration. I control for all of these demographic and background variables when assessing the relationship between local immigration and natives’ schooling levels. The second and third panels of Table 3 describe NELS:88 respondents’ attitudes and behaviors in school. Students in high- immigration CZs think they are more likely to go to college, do more homework, take more AP classes, take fewer vocational classes, and get higher grades. This is consistent with the hypothesis that local natives distinguish themselves from low- skilled immigrants by attaining more education. Of course, Table 3 also shows native- born youth in higher- immigration areas attending less school. In addition, the simple differences in means mask potential confounding factors and other explanations. The mean differences do not control for student demo- graphics and backgrounds that surely infl uence schooling expectations and efforts. In addition, they do not account for potential local factors that both induce low- skilled im- migration and raise the return to schooling of local natives, like a local positive shock to labor demand. Empirical specifi cations in the next section address both of those issues. The fourth panel of Table 3 describes highest schooling attainment of NELS:88 respondents. The difference in Column 7 shows that native- born eighth graders in high- immigration CZs stay in school longer than those in lower- immigration CZs. The difference is statistically indistinguishable from 0 for high school graduation, but the likelihood of getting postsecondary schooling increases as local low- skilled immigration increases. From the lower panels of Table 3, native- born workers from high- immigration origins tend to read somewhat more on the job, use computers more frequently, and use fewer manual tasks. These mean differences are consistent with na- tives differentiating their skills from local immigrants, but they could also refl ect other features of CZs that are incidentally correlated with low- skilled immigration. I control for such potential confounding factors in specifi cations below. The fi nal row shows that the majority of respondents live in the same CZ in eighth grade and when they are 26 years old and that those in higher- immigration areas are less likely to move away.

V. Results About Immigration and Natives’ Efforts and Success at School

This section describes the relationship between local immigration fl ows and students’ efforts in secondary school. I exploit the rich information about students’ experiences in the NELS:88 to illuminate mechanisms behind immigration’s role in natives’ education attainment. Overall, native- born students in relatively high- immigration CZs appear to invest more in academics. Table 4 displays results from ordinary least squares OLS and two- stage least squares 2SLS regressions with various specifi cations and dependent variables Equa- tion 1. Each cell in the table reports the coeffi cient and standard error on the eighth grade CZ low- skilled immigration fl ow. Each row describes a different dependent vari- able, and columns contain different specifi cations. The fi rst four columns refl ect the sample of all respondents with nonmissing data for these variables measured in second- ary school. The sample sizes are quite large above 10,000 because these variables are measured prior to subsampling for the fourth followup sample. Column 1 of Table 3 illustrates the range of sample sizes for these regressions for example, larger when measuring attendance and smaller for the 12 th grade test score. Columns 5 through 7 of Table 4 select only NELS:88 respondents whose mothers had no more than 12 years of schooling. Children of less- educated parents are likely to compete in labor markets with less- educated immigrants, so their behaviors are of particular interest. The fi rst panel of Table 4 reports the effects of local immigration fl ows on attitudes and expectations of native- born tenth graders. The fi rst row includes little evidence that immigration increases the extent to which tenth grade natives think education is important for their careers. The fi rst column’s coeffi cient 0.0025 refl ects a baseline OLS specifi cation that controls for local immigration, individual sex and raceethnic- ity, and eighth grade CZ controls, while the second column’s coeffi cient 0.0281 is from the analogous 2SLS specifi cation that instruments for immigration. These coef- fi cients are not statistically signifi cantly different from zero. One standard deviation of the low- skilled immigration fl ow distribution across CZs is about 0.43 53.7 percent. It is informative to multiply the immigration regression coeffi cient by 0.43, which yields the predicted human capital investment change given a one standard deviation increase in low- skilled immigration fl ow. In this case, the result from Column 2 2SLS is a 1.2 percentage point increase in the likelihood of claiming that education is important for a career. The third column adds a control for mother’s education, and the fourth column instead adds controls for resources at the respondent’s eighth grade school. Columns 5 through 7 refer to the subsample of respondents whose mothers have 12 or fewer years of schooling, where the effect of immigration on natives’ attitudes toward education and careers is very small. The second results row in Table 4 shows in similar specifi cations that increased local immigration does not induce tenth graders to increase their expectations of com- pleting high school. However, the third row implies that students experiencing high lo- cal immigration are more likely to expect to continue their education after high school. This is true with different specifi cations that control for family background and early school environment, and in both the full sample and those with less- educated parents. This expectations result is consistent with actual postsecondary attainment increases reported in the next section. The fourth results row of Table 4 shows that low- skilled immigration tends to in- crease school attendance among native- born students. If this is the sum of both the negative effect of fellow immigrant students—working through school resources— and the positive effect of immigrants in the labor market, then it is particularly strong evidence that natives increase their human capital investments in the face of competi- tion with immigrants. Indeed, this interpretation is consistent with the stronger result Table 4 Immigration and Natives’ Efforts at School 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 All Respondents Mother Had High School or Less OLS 2SLS 2SLS Control for Mother’s Education Years Control for Grade 8 School Quality Control for Mother’s Education Years Control for Grade 8 School Quality Attitudes in school 1990: Education important for career 0.0025 0.0281 0.0179 0.0405 –0.0092 –0.0096 0.0069 0.0141 0.0246 0.025 0.026 0.0393 0.0394 0.0396 1990: Sure to graduate from high school 0.0072 –0.0104 –0.0215 –0.0038 –0.0234 –0.0259 –0.0122 0.0094 0.0162 0.0166 0.0164 0.0287 0.0285 0.0283 1990: Sure to continue education after high school 0.0226 0.097 0.0633 0.1121 0.0786 0.0732 0.0802 0.0179 0.0333 0.0267 0.0321 0.0432 0.0421 0.0438 Behaviors in school School attendance composite 7.9e–04 0.0064 0.0049 0.0103 0.0107 0.0108 0.0158 0.0017 0.0033 0.0031 0.0036 0.0041 0.004 0.0043 Homework hours out of school 0.1572 0.3287 0.116 0.5792 0.4549 0.444 0.5304 0.1604 0.3065 0.2741 0.2697 0.3327 0.3326 0.3427 53 Took Advanced Placement class 0.0446 0.1161 0.0884 0.144 0.138 0.1372 0.1624 0.0187 0.0358 0.0307 0.0336 0.0405 0.0404 0.0421 Took vocational class –0.0652 –0.1601 –0.1482 –0.1664 –0.2489 –0.248 –0.2443 0.0192 0.0391 0.0372 0.0366 0.0547 0.0547 0.0542 Grades composite 0.0112 0.0248 0.0203 0.029 0.0245 0.0246 0.0285 0.0032 0.0055 0.0051 0.0058 0.0071 0.0068 0.0072 Eighth grade test score percentile 1.805 5.16 3.128 7.466 4.206 4.343 5.135 1.02 2.291 1.647 2.25 2.026 1.875 2.017 12th grade test score percentile 2.772 8.713 6.265 10.02 6.673 6.244 7.401 1.128 2.814 2.09 2.772 3.067 2.793 3.06 Notes: p 0.01 p 0.05 p 0.1. Data from the NELS:88. Each row corresponds to a dependent variable. Table only shows the coeffi cient on 1990 immigration from OLS or 2SLS specifi cations instrument for contemporary immigration is a prediction of low- skilled immigration to the CZ using previous immigrant populations. All models also include a constant, indicators for gender and race ethnicity, and eighth grade CZ characteristics: percent adult population with a bachelor’s degree, percent population without a high school diploma, and indicators for urbanicity fi ve of them and region three of them. See text for list of school quality controls. Standard errors clustered at eighth grade CZ level. in Column 4 that controls for school resources. The fi nding in Columns 5 through 7 that the effect is somewhat stronger among natives with less- educated parents lends further weight to this interpretation. The next row shows results about homework hours, providing some weak evidence of positive immigration effects. I hypothesize that relatively large local fl ows of immigrants with little formal schooling would raise the labor market return to AP classes and lower the labor mar- ket return to vocational classes. The sixth and seventh rows in Table 4 confi rm this hypothesis. Native- born students in higher- immigration CZs are more likely to take AP classes and less likely to take vocational classes. The effects are stronger among students with less- educated parents Columns 5–7. The eighth row in Table 4 shows a positive effect of immigration on native- born students’ grades, and the effect is very consistent across 2SLS specifi cations. The fi nal two rows of results in Table 4 display the effect of low- skilled immigration to the CZ on the test scores of native- born students. The effects are uniformly positive and statistically signifi cant, using alternative controls for the subsample of students with less- educated parents Columns 5–7. A coeffi cient of 5 as in Column 2 for eighth grade tests implies that a one standard deviation across CZs increase in low- skilled immigration fl ow 53.7 percent causes natives’ test scores to increase by 2.15 percen- tiles. The test score increases are somewhat larger in 12 th grade, which is consistent with cumulative effects. The results about test scores are related to a previous literature that mostly em- phasizes how native- born students are affected by immigrants in their own school. The focus is on the school quality effect of immigration rather than the effect of labor market expectations. For example, Diette and Oyelere 2012 shows that immigration fl ows to North Carolina affected test scores of natives. Interestingly, low- ability natives increased their scores while high- ability natives decreased theirs, which is consistent with the dual mechanisms affecting natives differently by pre- existing ability. Perhaps native students who are likely to drop out of high school “low- ability” in Diette and Oyelere 2012 are more likely to increase their motivation and performance in the midst of expected labor market competition. On the other hand, higher- ability natives appear more affected by a reallocation of schooling resources and see their test scores fall.

VI. Results About Immigration and Natives’ School Attainment