ProdukHukum BankIndonesia
CONSUMER SURVEY
October 2010
Consumers’ confidence towards economic condition in October
2010 regained as CCI scaled up by 4.4 points to 112.0. Enhancing
consumer confidence was boosted by higher consumers’
expectation index particularly on economic condition and job
availability over the next 6 months.
On the other hand, consumers considered that inflation pressure
in the next 3 months will decelerate. Price pressures were
predicted to move higher in the next 6 months especially on
foodstuff, clothing, beverages, cigarette and tobacco.
Consumer Confidence Index
Consumer Confidence Index
moved higher
Consumer confidence over economic condition continued to
stay at the highly favorable level in October 2010 as the Consumer
Confidence Index (CCI) escalated 4.4 points to the level of 112.0. The
ascending CCI was attributed by consumer’s wide perception on current
economic condition and the expectation for the next 6 months as the index
grew by 3.6 and 5.3 points respectively.
Graph 1. Consumer Confidence Index
(Index)
140.0
130.0
120.0
110.0
Optimistic
100.0
Pessimistic
90.0
80.0
Current Economic Condition Index
Global Economic
Crisis
70.0
Fuels Hike
Consumer Expectation Index
Consumer Confidence Index
60.0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2008
8
9 10 11 12 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2009
8
9 10 11 12 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2010
Methodology
Consumer Survey-Bank Indonesia (CS-BI) is a monthly survey that has been conducted since October 1999. Since January
2007, the survey is done to more or less 4,600 households as respondents (stratified random sampling) in 18 cities: Jakarta, Bandung,
Semarang, Surabaya, Medan, Makassar, Bandar Lampung, Palembang, Banjarmasin, Padang, Pontianak, Samarinda, Manado,
Denpasar, Mataram, Pangkal Pinang, Ambon, and Banten. By significance level of 99%, the sample has sampling error of 2%. Data
canvassing run through interviews by phone and direct visits in particular cities that based on rotated system. Balance Score Method
(net balance + 100) has been adopted to construct the index, where the index is above 100 points indicate an optimism (positive
responses) and vice versa.
I ndicators Movement on Selected Real Sector
1
9 10
This month’s survey showed that consumers’ optimism over both
current and next 6 months job availability was rose significantly. Moreover,
strengthening expectations on income and saving in the next 6 months has
lifted consumers’ optimism over economic condition in 6 months ahead.
In annual basis, consumer showed a wider confidence over
economic condition. The CCI in this reporting month mounted by 2.0 points
against the same period in previous year. The upward index was due to
vigorous consumers’ optimism on spending durable goods and wider job
availability.
Current Economic Condition Index
Consumer’s perception on
current economic condition is
getting better
Respondents were more optimistic over current economic
condition. Higher respondents’ optimism was revealed on Current Economic
Condition Index (CECI) which climbs 3.6 points to the level of 100.7 over
previous month.
Graph 2. Current Economic Condition Index (CECI
Index
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
2008
Current Economic Conditions Index
2009
Current Incomes
2010
Buying Durable Goods Conditions
Job Availability
This period survey also confirmed that all current economic indicators
posted escalation. Improved on saving and reduced prices pressure after Eid ul
Fitr celebration stimulate consumers intention to consume durable goods.
Consumers also acknowledged that job availability was spread out as many
disclosure civil officer job vacancies in certain government institution.
I ndicators Movement on Selected Real Sector
2
Compared to the same period in the previous year, consumers stated
that economic condition expanded, as showed by higher consumers’ appetite
to buy durable goods as well as considerable job availability.
Consumer Expectation Index
Respondent’s more optimistic
over condition in the next 6
months
Consumers had more confident toward the prospect for
economic condition over the next 6 months. Stronger consumers’
optimism was emphasized on Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) which
advanced 5.3 points to 123.4 over previous month.
Enhancing CEI was encouraged by strengthening consumer’s optimism
on job availability in the next 6 months following the better expectation on 6
months ahead economic prospect. The higher optimism on the prospect of
economic condition was triggered by consumers who have post-graduated
and get more than Rp 5 million income per month.
Graph. 3 Consumer Expectation Index (CEI)
Index
160.0
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
2008
Consumer Expectation Index
Economic Expectation
2009
2010
Incomes Expectation
Job Availability Expectation
Meanwhile, in annual, CEI laid at 123.4, slightly increase from 123.2 in
previous. Increasing optimism encountered on job availability and income
expectation index by 3.5 and 2.7 points respectively. On the other side,
economic condition expectation decelerated by 5.7 points.
Income Expectations
Optimism on rising
income in the next 6
months scaled up
Consumers also more optimistic over their income in the next 6
months. The optimism was seen on income expectation index which
increased 3.6 points to 140.0. The survey also noted that respondents with
I ndicators Movement on Selected Real Sector
3
expenditure above Rp 5 million per month showed the stronger optimism
towards income in the next 6 months.
Price Expectations
Pressure on prices in the
next 3 months slowing
down, while prices
predicted to move higher
in the next 6 months
Respondents believed that inflationary pressures will soften in the
3 months ahead. The survey revealed that price expectation index in the next
3 months edged down by 4.6 points. Respondents believed that diminishing
pressure on prices in the next 3 months will occurred on all good/service groups,
primarily on clothing & transport, and communication & financial services each
by 5.6 and 5.4 points.
Meanwhile, pressure on prices in the next 6 months predicted to
increase with the highest increase primarily on food and clothing, beverages,
cigarette and tobacco groups.
Graph 4. Price Expectation Index for the next 3 and 6 months
Index
200.0
6.00
Price Expectation Index 3 months ahead
Price Expectation Index 6 months ahead
190.0
5.00
Cummulative Inflations in 3 months
180.0
4.00
170.0
3.00
160.0
2.00
150.0
1.00
140.0
0.00
‐1.00
130.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4
2008
2009
2010
2011
Notes : Index = 100 indicates that consumer expect prices will still be stable, index > 100 indicates
consumer expect prices will increase, and index < 100 indicates consumer expect prices will decrease
Expectations of Savings and Interest Rates
Saving was predicted to
expand
In line with the rising on saving interest rate in the next 6
months, consumers show a higher optimistic on saving amount in the
next 6 months. The survey revealed that saving interest rate expectation in
the next 6 months will go up by 5.7 point to the level of 125.0. However, in
line with higher consumers’ income, respondents optimistic that their saving
will arise as shown by the mounting index by 6.0 points over previous month.
I ndicators Movement on Selected Real Sector
4
Graph. 5
Expectation Indexes on Interest Rates and Total Savings in the next 6 months
Index
(%)
25
140
Savings Growth in 6 months
Interest Rates Expectation Index in 6 months ahead
Savings Expectation Index in 6 months ahead
130
20
120
15
110
10
100
5
0
90
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4
2008
2009
2010
2011
Notes : Index = 100 indicates that consumer expect saving deposit and interest rate will still be
stable, index > 100 indicates consumer expect saving deposit and interest rate will increase, and
index < 100 indicates consumer expect saving deposit and interest rate will decrease
Expectations on Economic Conditions
Optimism on future
economic condition
accelerated
Respondents had greater confidence toward the economic
condition over the next 6 months. The optimism was revealed on rising
index measuring sentiment on future economic condition in October 2010 that
edged up by 5.5 points to the level of 121.6. Higher optimism was mainly
shown by respondent who has post-graduated educational background.
I ndicators Movement on Selected Real Sector
5
Table 1. Consumer Confidence, Price Expectations, Consumption Plans, and Economic Indicators (Index)
Descriptions
2009
Sep
A
Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
Oct
110.8
Present Situation (CECI)
110.0
2010
Nov
111.0
Dec
Jan
108.7
Feb
110.5
105.3
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
107.4
110.7
109.9
111.4
105.7
104.0
107.6
112.0
96.6
96.8
97.7
96.7
98.4
94.7
96.4
99.6
100.0
101.5
96.1
93.3
97.1
100.7
125.1
123.2
124.3
120.7
122.6
115.9
118.5
121.7
119.8
121.3
115.3
114.8
118.1
123.4
124.0
81.3
84.5
124.9
82.2
83.2
124.1
84.9
84.1
123.1
81.1
85.8
125.5
85.2
84.5
118.6
87.3
78.0
121.7
85.3
82.1
126.1
87.5
85.3
124.4
89.6
85.9
126.2
91.4
86.8
120.6
86.9
80.9
117.7
80.5
81.7
121.6
85.8
83.8
122.7
91.0
88.3
138.5
130.4
106.4
137.3
127.3
105.1
139.3
128.8
104.8
136.8
122.1
103.1
141.1
122.7
103.9
132.5
114.4
100.8
135.3
117.7
102.4
136.7
122.2
106.3
134.7
119.5
105.2
137.4
122.3
104.2
132.6
112.6
100.7
133.6
110.0
100.7
136.4
116.1
101.7
140.0
121.6
108.6
Price Expectations for 3 Months Hence of
Prices
Foodstuff
Food, beverages, cigarettes and tobacco
Housing, electricity, gas and fuel
Clothing
Health
Transportations, communications and financial services
Education, recreation, and sports
165.2
167.0
161.0
155.2
150.2
140.6
146.9
141.3
158.8
160.8
154.9
156.0
138.6
135.4
142.6
137.3
159.9
160.6
155.8
156.6
139.3
136.6
142.2
139.0
161.0
163.0
157.2
156.3
138.0
137.9
141.4
140.0
160.6
163.5
156.4
152.0
135.5
135.9
137.5
138.0
160.2
163.4
155.0
151.5
136.4
136.1
137.9
137.2
155.1
156.0
149.9
148.1
131.2
133.9
134.3
138.2
158.6
159.6
153.5
155.3
133.7
133.6
136.4
141.4
164.3
164.2
156.5
158.1
142.1
138.8
142.0
145.9
166.8
167.8
160.2
161.2
148.9
141.0
149.7
149.4
180.5
181.1
170.5
175.0
155.9
146.6
157.4
154.9
175.4
177.2
170.2
167.8
156.3
146.0
155.6
151.0
167.6
168.7
161.7
160.7
145.9
140.2
150.5
143.0
163.0
164.9
157.7
156.2
140.3
138.5
145.1
139.5
Price Expectations for 6 Months Hence of
Prices
Foodstuff
Food, beverages, cigarettes and tobacco
Housing, electricity, gas and fuel
Clothing
Health
Transportations, communications and financial services
Education, recreation, and sports
156.9
158.2
153.4
150.8
141.7
140.2
143.4
141.0
156.2
158.4
154.3
154.3
137.4
136.7
143.9
138.6
157.9
158.4
154.4
155.7
140.5
138.1
142.6
143.1
158.8
160.5
154.9
155.4
139.9
138.9
143.9
144.7
161.2
162.1
156.9
153.2
140.1
140.0
142.8
146.2
164.3
166.0
158.9
153.1
144.4
140.8
145.5
147.7
161.1
161.7
156.7
148.6
143.1
136.7
143.6
145.3
159.3
160.5
154.5
154.1
140.3
137.2
144.9
144.2
162.5
163.0
158.0
157.3
145.2
139.1
147.3
146.1
163.2
164.1
158.0
157.3
147.2
141.2
148.3
146.1
170.1
170.9
163.5
165.8
148.3
146.4
152.9
150.8
161.5
162.5
157.9
156.0
145.2
139.2
147.9
144.2
156.9
157.7
153.1
153.1
139.4
138.9
143.7
141.9
159.1
160.6
154.9
154.8
139.9
139.3
145.4
142.0
138.6
115.2
104.4
125.0
136.4
113.3
104.7
125.9
132.7
115.4
106.6
128.2
133.5
116.3
105.9
126.7
138.3
117.9
106.4
129.8
134.2
114.9
105.2
125.6
135.5
117.0
106.9
126.2
137.6
116.2
105.0
127.0
138.7
117.1
105.8
125.0
141.6
117.7
106.5
127.2
140.0
117.9
103.7
124.3
136.4
119.8
103.0
123.0
135.2
119.3
106.1
126.0
138.1
125.0
108.6
132.0
Expectations (CEI)
Appraisal of Present Situation
Current Incomes
Buying durable goods Conditions
Employment Conditions
(before Oct 2004: Unemployment Condition)
Expectations for 6 Months Hence of
Incomes
Economic Conditions
Employment Conditions
(before Oct 2004: Unemployment Expectation)
B
C
D
Economic Indicator within 6 Months
Avaibility of Goods & Services
Interest Rate
Current savings
Savings for 6 months hence
Table 2. Respondent Figures (percentages)
2009
Descriptions
Oct
Nov
2010
Des
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Gender
Male
Female
57.5
42.5
57.8
42.2
58.3
41.7
59.8
40.2
58.6
41.4
59.0
41.0
58.8
41.2
57.7
42.3
57.4
42.6
58.9
41.1
58.3
41.7
60.0
40.0
58.3
41.7
Household Expenses
Rp. 1 million - Rp. 3 million
Rp. 3 million - Rp. 5 million
Rp. 5 million and over
60.9
28.3
10.7
60.2
28.4
11.4
59.4
29.7
11.0
58.7
30.9
10.4
61.2
28.7
10.0
58.1
30.8
11.2
59.8
30.3
9.9
59.7
29.6
10.7
60.9
28.8
10.3
58.9
31.1
10.0
60.6
29.3
10.1
58.9
30.6
10.5
60.7
29.2
10.1
61.1
35.9
3.0
63.9
33.0
3.1
62.2
34.2
3.6
57.6
38.4
3.9
59.5
36.6
3.9
59.1
36.5
4.4
60.3
35.6
4.1
61.1
34.9
4.0
60.5
35.9
3.5
59.3
37.1
3.5
61.2
34.6
4.3
58.6
38.0
3.4
62.3
33.8
3.9
47.7
13.4
34.4
4.5
47.7
12.9
35.2
4.2
47.6
13.2
34.6
4.6
45.9
13.4
35.4
5.3
46.1
13.9
35.0
5.0
46.1
13.5
35.2
5.2
50.3
12.5
33.1
4.1
49.4
13.1
33.2
4.4
51.7
12.1
32.2
4.0
50.7
13.8
30.8
4.7
50.2
13.6
32.1
4.1
50.6
13.1
32.3
4.0
52.0
11.4
32.6
4.0
Ages
20-40 years
41-60 years
60 years above
Educational Level
High School
Diploma
University
Graduate/Post Graduate
I ndicators Movement on Selected Real Sector
6
Table 3. Consumer Confidence by Region (Index)
2009
Descriptions
Oct
Nov
2010
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
DKI Jakarta
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
99.0
76.0
122.0
105.1
81.0
129.1
97.2
76.3
118.0
105.9
86.4
125.4
94.1
79.1
109.1
96.3
78.8
113.9
97.7
83.0
112.5
97.6
79.6
115.5
104.9
89.0
120.8
89.7
75.4
104.1
88.5
71.5
105.6
99.1
80.6
117.7
109.7
92.2
127.2
Bandung
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
104.7
88.8
120.6
105.0
87.4
122.6
102.4
85.3
119.4
99.3
80.3
118.2
85.7
70.1
101.2
92.2
74.7
109.7
97.6
83.1
112.1
101.1
88.9
113.2
99.8
88.6
111.0
90.2
75.9
104.4
95.2
80.1
110.3
103.4
90.8
116.1
101.3
91.3
111.3
Semarang
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
119.6
110.7
128.4
112.1
101.0
123.1
114.7
103.4
126.0
113.8
105.4
122.1
121.6
112.3
130.8
105.6
98.9
112.2
113.7
109.4
118.0
117.9
112.2
123.6
103.3
95.0
111.6
102.7
96.1
109.2
95.2
86.0
104.4
98.2
91.0
105.4
111.8
104.8
118.8
Surabaya
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
103.9
88.5
119.3
101.2
88.4
114.1
96.3
81.9
110.7
103.5
93.1
113.9
100.8
89.3
112.3
99.4
92.7
106.1
98.3
88.1
108.6
96.5
87.7
105.3
92.5
82.5
102.5
90.2
80.1
100.3
91.1
79.7
102.5
91.5
79.6
103.3
95.2
83.3
107.2
Medan
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
119.7
106.5
133.0
116.6
103.4
129.8
104.7
97.0
112.3
105.2
95.4
115.0
99.7
92.4
107.1
107.8
97.9
117.8
109.8
95.3
124.3
113.6
100.4
126.8
109.6
95.7
123.5
112.3
100.6
124.0
106.6
94.0
119.3
107.8
93.1
122.5
101.0
88.4
113.7
Palembang
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
113.1
98.2
128.0
121.9
112.8
131.1
117.8
110.2
125.3
110.7
105.2
116.2
107.8
101.4
114.1
107.4
100.9
113.9
116.4
105.8
127.1
109.4
102.4
116.3
114.7
109.7
119.7
109.3
102.0
116.7
113.2
107.1
119.3
119.7
115.6
123.9
104.9
98.3
111.6
Banjarmasin
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
117.6
113.8
121.5
121.9
118.9
125.0
116.2
109.4
122.9
117.6
110.8
124.4
110.6
106.8
114.3
111.3
108.3
114.2
112.7
104.9
120.6
110.7
100.8
120.6
106.0
101.9
110.0
116.7
109.9
123.5
108.6
99.4
117.8
112.6
105.6
119.7
121.4
116.8
126.0
BandarLampung
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
107.3
95.3
119.2
109.3
92.5
126.0
104.6
92.2
117.0
112.9
91.7
134.2
111.5
96.0
127.0
109.1
94.7
123.5
119.6
104.7
134.5
112.2
98.0
126.3
124.6
112.0
137.2
108.1
94.2
122.0
114.1
103.0
125.2
104.3
91.7
117.0
107.8
91.8
123.8
Makassar
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
118.4
113.5
123.3
117.8
105.2
130.3
118.3
110.2
126.3
129.6
121.7
137.5
117.1
109.7
124.5
113.6
102.7
124.5
122.8
111.2
134.5
128.2
115.7
140.7
119.4
107.0
131.8
117.0
105.3
128.7
101.3
88.0
114.7
102.9
96.5
109.3
120.4
108.8
132.0
Samarinda
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
123.9
111.0
136.8
110.9
97.5
124.3
120.5
109.7
131.3
121.3
107.5
135.0
113.7
102.3
125.0
111.7
101.3
122.0
116.7
104.7
128.7
113.1
106.8
119.3
124.9
117.5
132.3
117.3
103.0
131.5
119.7
104.2
135.2
116.3
105.0
127.7
133.3
119.2
147.5
Denpasar
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
103.8
94.3
113.3
108.3
98.7
117.8
102.9
93.5
112.3
103.1
94.2
112.0
85.7
75.0
96.3
93.3
86.0
100.5
95.6
87.7
103.5
95.8
88.2
103.3
107.0
98.5
115.5
102.8
95.7
110.0
90.7
86.2
95.1
92.9
79.0
106.8
93.4
85.3
101.5
Padang
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
79.2
66.2
92.2
79.8
66.7
93.0
99.2
84.8
113.5
103.0
88.5
117.5
99.0
88.3
109.7
97.8
85.7
109.8
104.4
91.2
117.7
107.8
100.0
115.5
112.3
103.5
121.0
98.9
89.8
108.0
95.3
86.2
104.5
96.1
86.3
105.8
100.3
89.5
111.0
Pontianak
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
123.8
115.7
131.8
121.0
110.7
131.3
120.9
115.3
126.5
123.9
114.2
133.7
114.3
108.2
120.3
124.8
114.8
134.8
118.4
110.2
126.7
119.6
111.7
127.5
124.0
113.8
134.2
121.6
115.0
128.2
118.9
112.8
125.0
120.3
113.2
127.5
124.3
119.2
129.5
Manado
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
125.8
109.0
142.5
121.4
112.3
130.5
137.1
119.0
155.2
134.5
120.2
148.8
126.4
112.3
140.5
146.5
134.0
159.0
148.4
140.7
156.2
141.8
133.0
150.5
129.1
121.8
136.3
111.0
108.5
113.5
111.9
107.5
116.3
134.3
129.5
139.0
141.3
126.7
156.0
Mataram
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
112.4
106.7
118.2
121.3
108.3
134.3
102.1
97.5
106.7
113.3
98.3
128.2
114.8
102.2
127.5
115.3
104.0
126.7
127.4
116.3
138.5
113.1
106.8
119.3
120.3
113.3
127.2
118.8
114.7
123.0
124.5
115.8
133.2
121.9
116.8
127.0
133.9
128.7
139.2
Pangkal Pinang
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
104.0
93.8
114.2
106.4
99.7
113.2
108.3
104.0
112.5
98.3
94.5
102.0
109.2
103.0
115.3
108.1
97.8
118.3
115.2
111.0
119.3
117.8
116.5
119.0
126.0
122.0
130.0
105.3
100.8
109.8
113.5
110.3
116.7
115.8
112.3
119.3
119.9
111.3
128.5
Ambon
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
113.2
103.7
122.7
122.6
116.7
128.6
120.7
114.6
126.8
120.0
114.3
125.7
115.8
110.7
121.0
129.3
119.3
139.3
114.3
110.0
118.6
115.9
111.4
120.3
129.5
125.9
133.2
133.5
130.6
136.3
126.5
122.5
130.5
132.6
127.6
137.6
130.2
119.8
140.5
Banten
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
106.2
82.4
129.9
110.2
85.5
134.9
104.3
81.3
127.3
95.7
77.0
114.4
94.7
76.7
112.6
101.1
79.6
122.7
104.0
81.4
126.5
103.8
87.2
120.4
104.8
84.1
125.6
105.2
88.4
121.9
102.0
79.7
124.2
101.5
80.7
122.3
107.9
83.4
132.4
I ndicators Movement on Selected Real Sector
7
October 2010
Consumers’ confidence towards economic condition in October
2010 regained as CCI scaled up by 4.4 points to 112.0. Enhancing
consumer confidence was boosted by higher consumers’
expectation index particularly on economic condition and job
availability over the next 6 months.
On the other hand, consumers considered that inflation pressure
in the next 3 months will decelerate. Price pressures were
predicted to move higher in the next 6 months especially on
foodstuff, clothing, beverages, cigarette and tobacco.
Consumer Confidence Index
Consumer Confidence Index
moved higher
Consumer confidence over economic condition continued to
stay at the highly favorable level in October 2010 as the Consumer
Confidence Index (CCI) escalated 4.4 points to the level of 112.0. The
ascending CCI was attributed by consumer’s wide perception on current
economic condition and the expectation for the next 6 months as the index
grew by 3.6 and 5.3 points respectively.
Graph 1. Consumer Confidence Index
(Index)
140.0
130.0
120.0
110.0
Optimistic
100.0
Pessimistic
90.0
80.0
Current Economic Condition Index
Global Economic
Crisis
70.0
Fuels Hike
Consumer Expectation Index
Consumer Confidence Index
60.0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2008
8
9 10 11 12 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2009
8
9 10 11 12 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2010
Methodology
Consumer Survey-Bank Indonesia (CS-BI) is a monthly survey that has been conducted since October 1999. Since January
2007, the survey is done to more or less 4,600 households as respondents (stratified random sampling) in 18 cities: Jakarta, Bandung,
Semarang, Surabaya, Medan, Makassar, Bandar Lampung, Palembang, Banjarmasin, Padang, Pontianak, Samarinda, Manado,
Denpasar, Mataram, Pangkal Pinang, Ambon, and Banten. By significance level of 99%, the sample has sampling error of 2%. Data
canvassing run through interviews by phone and direct visits in particular cities that based on rotated system. Balance Score Method
(net balance + 100) has been adopted to construct the index, where the index is above 100 points indicate an optimism (positive
responses) and vice versa.
I ndicators Movement on Selected Real Sector
1
9 10
This month’s survey showed that consumers’ optimism over both
current and next 6 months job availability was rose significantly. Moreover,
strengthening expectations on income and saving in the next 6 months has
lifted consumers’ optimism over economic condition in 6 months ahead.
In annual basis, consumer showed a wider confidence over
economic condition. The CCI in this reporting month mounted by 2.0 points
against the same period in previous year. The upward index was due to
vigorous consumers’ optimism on spending durable goods and wider job
availability.
Current Economic Condition Index
Consumer’s perception on
current economic condition is
getting better
Respondents were more optimistic over current economic
condition. Higher respondents’ optimism was revealed on Current Economic
Condition Index (CECI) which climbs 3.6 points to the level of 100.7 over
previous month.
Graph 2. Current Economic Condition Index (CECI
Index
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
2008
Current Economic Conditions Index
2009
Current Incomes
2010
Buying Durable Goods Conditions
Job Availability
This period survey also confirmed that all current economic indicators
posted escalation. Improved on saving and reduced prices pressure after Eid ul
Fitr celebration stimulate consumers intention to consume durable goods.
Consumers also acknowledged that job availability was spread out as many
disclosure civil officer job vacancies in certain government institution.
I ndicators Movement on Selected Real Sector
2
Compared to the same period in the previous year, consumers stated
that economic condition expanded, as showed by higher consumers’ appetite
to buy durable goods as well as considerable job availability.
Consumer Expectation Index
Respondent’s more optimistic
over condition in the next 6
months
Consumers had more confident toward the prospect for
economic condition over the next 6 months. Stronger consumers’
optimism was emphasized on Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) which
advanced 5.3 points to 123.4 over previous month.
Enhancing CEI was encouraged by strengthening consumer’s optimism
on job availability in the next 6 months following the better expectation on 6
months ahead economic prospect. The higher optimism on the prospect of
economic condition was triggered by consumers who have post-graduated
and get more than Rp 5 million income per month.
Graph. 3 Consumer Expectation Index (CEI)
Index
160.0
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
2008
Consumer Expectation Index
Economic Expectation
2009
2010
Incomes Expectation
Job Availability Expectation
Meanwhile, in annual, CEI laid at 123.4, slightly increase from 123.2 in
previous. Increasing optimism encountered on job availability and income
expectation index by 3.5 and 2.7 points respectively. On the other side,
economic condition expectation decelerated by 5.7 points.
Income Expectations
Optimism on rising
income in the next 6
months scaled up
Consumers also more optimistic over their income in the next 6
months. The optimism was seen on income expectation index which
increased 3.6 points to 140.0. The survey also noted that respondents with
I ndicators Movement on Selected Real Sector
3
expenditure above Rp 5 million per month showed the stronger optimism
towards income in the next 6 months.
Price Expectations
Pressure on prices in the
next 3 months slowing
down, while prices
predicted to move higher
in the next 6 months
Respondents believed that inflationary pressures will soften in the
3 months ahead. The survey revealed that price expectation index in the next
3 months edged down by 4.6 points. Respondents believed that diminishing
pressure on prices in the next 3 months will occurred on all good/service groups,
primarily on clothing & transport, and communication & financial services each
by 5.6 and 5.4 points.
Meanwhile, pressure on prices in the next 6 months predicted to
increase with the highest increase primarily on food and clothing, beverages,
cigarette and tobacco groups.
Graph 4. Price Expectation Index for the next 3 and 6 months
Index
200.0
6.00
Price Expectation Index 3 months ahead
Price Expectation Index 6 months ahead
190.0
5.00
Cummulative Inflations in 3 months
180.0
4.00
170.0
3.00
160.0
2.00
150.0
1.00
140.0
0.00
‐1.00
130.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4
2008
2009
2010
2011
Notes : Index = 100 indicates that consumer expect prices will still be stable, index > 100 indicates
consumer expect prices will increase, and index < 100 indicates consumer expect prices will decrease
Expectations of Savings and Interest Rates
Saving was predicted to
expand
In line with the rising on saving interest rate in the next 6
months, consumers show a higher optimistic on saving amount in the
next 6 months. The survey revealed that saving interest rate expectation in
the next 6 months will go up by 5.7 point to the level of 125.0. However, in
line with higher consumers’ income, respondents optimistic that their saving
will arise as shown by the mounting index by 6.0 points over previous month.
I ndicators Movement on Selected Real Sector
4
Graph. 5
Expectation Indexes on Interest Rates and Total Savings in the next 6 months
Index
(%)
25
140
Savings Growth in 6 months
Interest Rates Expectation Index in 6 months ahead
Savings Expectation Index in 6 months ahead
130
20
120
15
110
10
100
5
0
90
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4
2008
2009
2010
2011
Notes : Index = 100 indicates that consumer expect saving deposit and interest rate will still be
stable, index > 100 indicates consumer expect saving deposit and interest rate will increase, and
index < 100 indicates consumer expect saving deposit and interest rate will decrease
Expectations on Economic Conditions
Optimism on future
economic condition
accelerated
Respondents had greater confidence toward the economic
condition over the next 6 months. The optimism was revealed on rising
index measuring sentiment on future economic condition in October 2010 that
edged up by 5.5 points to the level of 121.6. Higher optimism was mainly
shown by respondent who has post-graduated educational background.
I ndicators Movement on Selected Real Sector
5
Table 1. Consumer Confidence, Price Expectations, Consumption Plans, and Economic Indicators (Index)
Descriptions
2009
Sep
A
Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
Oct
110.8
Present Situation (CECI)
110.0
2010
Nov
111.0
Dec
Jan
108.7
Feb
110.5
105.3
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
107.4
110.7
109.9
111.4
105.7
104.0
107.6
112.0
96.6
96.8
97.7
96.7
98.4
94.7
96.4
99.6
100.0
101.5
96.1
93.3
97.1
100.7
125.1
123.2
124.3
120.7
122.6
115.9
118.5
121.7
119.8
121.3
115.3
114.8
118.1
123.4
124.0
81.3
84.5
124.9
82.2
83.2
124.1
84.9
84.1
123.1
81.1
85.8
125.5
85.2
84.5
118.6
87.3
78.0
121.7
85.3
82.1
126.1
87.5
85.3
124.4
89.6
85.9
126.2
91.4
86.8
120.6
86.9
80.9
117.7
80.5
81.7
121.6
85.8
83.8
122.7
91.0
88.3
138.5
130.4
106.4
137.3
127.3
105.1
139.3
128.8
104.8
136.8
122.1
103.1
141.1
122.7
103.9
132.5
114.4
100.8
135.3
117.7
102.4
136.7
122.2
106.3
134.7
119.5
105.2
137.4
122.3
104.2
132.6
112.6
100.7
133.6
110.0
100.7
136.4
116.1
101.7
140.0
121.6
108.6
Price Expectations for 3 Months Hence of
Prices
Foodstuff
Food, beverages, cigarettes and tobacco
Housing, electricity, gas and fuel
Clothing
Health
Transportations, communications and financial services
Education, recreation, and sports
165.2
167.0
161.0
155.2
150.2
140.6
146.9
141.3
158.8
160.8
154.9
156.0
138.6
135.4
142.6
137.3
159.9
160.6
155.8
156.6
139.3
136.6
142.2
139.0
161.0
163.0
157.2
156.3
138.0
137.9
141.4
140.0
160.6
163.5
156.4
152.0
135.5
135.9
137.5
138.0
160.2
163.4
155.0
151.5
136.4
136.1
137.9
137.2
155.1
156.0
149.9
148.1
131.2
133.9
134.3
138.2
158.6
159.6
153.5
155.3
133.7
133.6
136.4
141.4
164.3
164.2
156.5
158.1
142.1
138.8
142.0
145.9
166.8
167.8
160.2
161.2
148.9
141.0
149.7
149.4
180.5
181.1
170.5
175.0
155.9
146.6
157.4
154.9
175.4
177.2
170.2
167.8
156.3
146.0
155.6
151.0
167.6
168.7
161.7
160.7
145.9
140.2
150.5
143.0
163.0
164.9
157.7
156.2
140.3
138.5
145.1
139.5
Price Expectations for 6 Months Hence of
Prices
Foodstuff
Food, beverages, cigarettes and tobacco
Housing, electricity, gas and fuel
Clothing
Health
Transportations, communications and financial services
Education, recreation, and sports
156.9
158.2
153.4
150.8
141.7
140.2
143.4
141.0
156.2
158.4
154.3
154.3
137.4
136.7
143.9
138.6
157.9
158.4
154.4
155.7
140.5
138.1
142.6
143.1
158.8
160.5
154.9
155.4
139.9
138.9
143.9
144.7
161.2
162.1
156.9
153.2
140.1
140.0
142.8
146.2
164.3
166.0
158.9
153.1
144.4
140.8
145.5
147.7
161.1
161.7
156.7
148.6
143.1
136.7
143.6
145.3
159.3
160.5
154.5
154.1
140.3
137.2
144.9
144.2
162.5
163.0
158.0
157.3
145.2
139.1
147.3
146.1
163.2
164.1
158.0
157.3
147.2
141.2
148.3
146.1
170.1
170.9
163.5
165.8
148.3
146.4
152.9
150.8
161.5
162.5
157.9
156.0
145.2
139.2
147.9
144.2
156.9
157.7
153.1
153.1
139.4
138.9
143.7
141.9
159.1
160.6
154.9
154.8
139.9
139.3
145.4
142.0
138.6
115.2
104.4
125.0
136.4
113.3
104.7
125.9
132.7
115.4
106.6
128.2
133.5
116.3
105.9
126.7
138.3
117.9
106.4
129.8
134.2
114.9
105.2
125.6
135.5
117.0
106.9
126.2
137.6
116.2
105.0
127.0
138.7
117.1
105.8
125.0
141.6
117.7
106.5
127.2
140.0
117.9
103.7
124.3
136.4
119.8
103.0
123.0
135.2
119.3
106.1
126.0
138.1
125.0
108.6
132.0
Expectations (CEI)
Appraisal of Present Situation
Current Incomes
Buying durable goods Conditions
Employment Conditions
(before Oct 2004: Unemployment Condition)
Expectations for 6 Months Hence of
Incomes
Economic Conditions
Employment Conditions
(before Oct 2004: Unemployment Expectation)
B
C
D
Economic Indicator within 6 Months
Avaibility of Goods & Services
Interest Rate
Current savings
Savings for 6 months hence
Table 2. Respondent Figures (percentages)
2009
Descriptions
Oct
Nov
2010
Des
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Gender
Male
Female
57.5
42.5
57.8
42.2
58.3
41.7
59.8
40.2
58.6
41.4
59.0
41.0
58.8
41.2
57.7
42.3
57.4
42.6
58.9
41.1
58.3
41.7
60.0
40.0
58.3
41.7
Household Expenses
Rp. 1 million - Rp. 3 million
Rp. 3 million - Rp. 5 million
Rp. 5 million and over
60.9
28.3
10.7
60.2
28.4
11.4
59.4
29.7
11.0
58.7
30.9
10.4
61.2
28.7
10.0
58.1
30.8
11.2
59.8
30.3
9.9
59.7
29.6
10.7
60.9
28.8
10.3
58.9
31.1
10.0
60.6
29.3
10.1
58.9
30.6
10.5
60.7
29.2
10.1
61.1
35.9
3.0
63.9
33.0
3.1
62.2
34.2
3.6
57.6
38.4
3.9
59.5
36.6
3.9
59.1
36.5
4.4
60.3
35.6
4.1
61.1
34.9
4.0
60.5
35.9
3.5
59.3
37.1
3.5
61.2
34.6
4.3
58.6
38.0
3.4
62.3
33.8
3.9
47.7
13.4
34.4
4.5
47.7
12.9
35.2
4.2
47.6
13.2
34.6
4.6
45.9
13.4
35.4
5.3
46.1
13.9
35.0
5.0
46.1
13.5
35.2
5.2
50.3
12.5
33.1
4.1
49.4
13.1
33.2
4.4
51.7
12.1
32.2
4.0
50.7
13.8
30.8
4.7
50.2
13.6
32.1
4.1
50.6
13.1
32.3
4.0
52.0
11.4
32.6
4.0
Ages
20-40 years
41-60 years
60 years above
Educational Level
High School
Diploma
University
Graduate/Post Graduate
I ndicators Movement on Selected Real Sector
6
Table 3. Consumer Confidence by Region (Index)
2009
Descriptions
Oct
Nov
2010
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
DKI Jakarta
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
99.0
76.0
122.0
105.1
81.0
129.1
97.2
76.3
118.0
105.9
86.4
125.4
94.1
79.1
109.1
96.3
78.8
113.9
97.7
83.0
112.5
97.6
79.6
115.5
104.9
89.0
120.8
89.7
75.4
104.1
88.5
71.5
105.6
99.1
80.6
117.7
109.7
92.2
127.2
Bandung
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
104.7
88.8
120.6
105.0
87.4
122.6
102.4
85.3
119.4
99.3
80.3
118.2
85.7
70.1
101.2
92.2
74.7
109.7
97.6
83.1
112.1
101.1
88.9
113.2
99.8
88.6
111.0
90.2
75.9
104.4
95.2
80.1
110.3
103.4
90.8
116.1
101.3
91.3
111.3
Semarang
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
119.6
110.7
128.4
112.1
101.0
123.1
114.7
103.4
126.0
113.8
105.4
122.1
121.6
112.3
130.8
105.6
98.9
112.2
113.7
109.4
118.0
117.9
112.2
123.6
103.3
95.0
111.6
102.7
96.1
109.2
95.2
86.0
104.4
98.2
91.0
105.4
111.8
104.8
118.8
Surabaya
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
103.9
88.5
119.3
101.2
88.4
114.1
96.3
81.9
110.7
103.5
93.1
113.9
100.8
89.3
112.3
99.4
92.7
106.1
98.3
88.1
108.6
96.5
87.7
105.3
92.5
82.5
102.5
90.2
80.1
100.3
91.1
79.7
102.5
91.5
79.6
103.3
95.2
83.3
107.2
Medan
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
119.7
106.5
133.0
116.6
103.4
129.8
104.7
97.0
112.3
105.2
95.4
115.0
99.7
92.4
107.1
107.8
97.9
117.8
109.8
95.3
124.3
113.6
100.4
126.8
109.6
95.7
123.5
112.3
100.6
124.0
106.6
94.0
119.3
107.8
93.1
122.5
101.0
88.4
113.7
Palembang
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
113.1
98.2
128.0
121.9
112.8
131.1
117.8
110.2
125.3
110.7
105.2
116.2
107.8
101.4
114.1
107.4
100.9
113.9
116.4
105.8
127.1
109.4
102.4
116.3
114.7
109.7
119.7
109.3
102.0
116.7
113.2
107.1
119.3
119.7
115.6
123.9
104.9
98.3
111.6
Banjarmasin
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
117.6
113.8
121.5
121.9
118.9
125.0
116.2
109.4
122.9
117.6
110.8
124.4
110.6
106.8
114.3
111.3
108.3
114.2
112.7
104.9
120.6
110.7
100.8
120.6
106.0
101.9
110.0
116.7
109.9
123.5
108.6
99.4
117.8
112.6
105.6
119.7
121.4
116.8
126.0
BandarLampung
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
107.3
95.3
119.2
109.3
92.5
126.0
104.6
92.2
117.0
112.9
91.7
134.2
111.5
96.0
127.0
109.1
94.7
123.5
119.6
104.7
134.5
112.2
98.0
126.3
124.6
112.0
137.2
108.1
94.2
122.0
114.1
103.0
125.2
104.3
91.7
117.0
107.8
91.8
123.8
Makassar
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
118.4
113.5
123.3
117.8
105.2
130.3
118.3
110.2
126.3
129.6
121.7
137.5
117.1
109.7
124.5
113.6
102.7
124.5
122.8
111.2
134.5
128.2
115.7
140.7
119.4
107.0
131.8
117.0
105.3
128.7
101.3
88.0
114.7
102.9
96.5
109.3
120.4
108.8
132.0
Samarinda
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
123.9
111.0
136.8
110.9
97.5
124.3
120.5
109.7
131.3
121.3
107.5
135.0
113.7
102.3
125.0
111.7
101.3
122.0
116.7
104.7
128.7
113.1
106.8
119.3
124.9
117.5
132.3
117.3
103.0
131.5
119.7
104.2
135.2
116.3
105.0
127.7
133.3
119.2
147.5
Denpasar
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
103.8
94.3
113.3
108.3
98.7
117.8
102.9
93.5
112.3
103.1
94.2
112.0
85.7
75.0
96.3
93.3
86.0
100.5
95.6
87.7
103.5
95.8
88.2
103.3
107.0
98.5
115.5
102.8
95.7
110.0
90.7
86.2
95.1
92.9
79.0
106.8
93.4
85.3
101.5
Padang
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
79.2
66.2
92.2
79.8
66.7
93.0
99.2
84.8
113.5
103.0
88.5
117.5
99.0
88.3
109.7
97.8
85.7
109.8
104.4
91.2
117.7
107.8
100.0
115.5
112.3
103.5
121.0
98.9
89.8
108.0
95.3
86.2
104.5
96.1
86.3
105.8
100.3
89.5
111.0
Pontianak
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
123.8
115.7
131.8
121.0
110.7
131.3
120.9
115.3
126.5
123.9
114.2
133.7
114.3
108.2
120.3
124.8
114.8
134.8
118.4
110.2
126.7
119.6
111.7
127.5
124.0
113.8
134.2
121.6
115.0
128.2
118.9
112.8
125.0
120.3
113.2
127.5
124.3
119.2
129.5
Manado
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
125.8
109.0
142.5
121.4
112.3
130.5
137.1
119.0
155.2
134.5
120.2
148.8
126.4
112.3
140.5
146.5
134.0
159.0
148.4
140.7
156.2
141.8
133.0
150.5
129.1
121.8
136.3
111.0
108.5
113.5
111.9
107.5
116.3
134.3
129.5
139.0
141.3
126.7
156.0
Mataram
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
112.4
106.7
118.2
121.3
108.3
134.3
102.1
97.5
106.7
113.3
98.3
128.2
114.8
102.2
127.5
115.3
104.0
126.7
127.4
116.3
138.5
113.1
106.8
119.3
120.3
113.3
127.2
118.8
114.7
123.0
124.5
115.8
133.2
121.9
116.8
127.0
133.9
128.7
139.2
Pangkal Pinang
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
104.0
93.8
114.2
106.4
99.7
113.2
108.3
104.0
112.5
98.3
94.5
102.0
109.2
103.0
115.3
108.1
97.8
118.3
115.2
111.0
119.3
117.8
116.5
119.0
126.0
122.0
130.0
105.3
100.8
109.8
113.5
110.3
116.7
115.8
112.3
119.3
119.9
111.3
128.5
Ambon
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
113.2
103.7
122.7
122.6
116.7
128.6
120.7
114.6
126.8
120.0
114.3
125.7
115.8
110.7
121.0
129.3
119.3
139.3
114.3
110.0
118.6
115.9
111.4
120.3
129.5
125.9
133.2
133.5
130.6
136.3
126.5
122.5
130.5
132.6
127.6
137.6
130.2
119.8
140.5
Banten
Consumer Confidence Index
Present Situation
Expectations
106.2
82.4
129.9
110.2
85.5
134.9
104.3
81.3
127.3
95.7
77.0
114.4
94.7
76.7
112.6
101.1
79.6
122.7
104.0
81.4
126.5
103.8
87.2
120.4
104.8
84.1
125.6
105.2
88.4
121.9
102.0
79.7
124.2
101.5
80.7
122.3
107.9
83.4
132.4
I ndicators Movement on Selected Real Sector
7