JPFA Gemilangnya Outlook Laba 2018 20180523 NHKS Company Report (Bahasa)
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Dividend yield 1.0% 3.8% 1.5% 2.6% Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, NHKS Research
Costing Lebih Teratur Kami memperkirkan bahwa Peraturan Menteri Perdagangan No. 58 Tahun 2018 yang menetapkan harga acuan daging ayam ras dengan batas bawah sebesar Rp17.000/kg dan batas atas sebesar Rp19.000/kg akan memudahkan emiten unggas melakukan evaluasi biaya produksi sehingga profitabilitas akan lebih stabil.
1Q17 menjadi Rp433 miliar pada 1Q18. Faktor utama pendukung kenaikan laba ini adalah turnaround yang terjadi di divisi peternakan dan produk konsumen dari rugi operasional sebesar Rp70 miliar pada 1Q17 menjadi laba operasional sebesar Rp247 miliar pada 1Q18.
Laba JPFA Tumbuh Fantastis Laba JPFA mengalami lonjakan drastis sebesar 491% dari Rp73 miliar pada
1Q17 menjadi Rp3,4 triliun pada 1Q18. Selain itu, divisi pakan ternak juga mengalami pertumbuhan sebesar 12% dari Rp2,46 triliun pada 1Q17 menjadi Rp2,7 triliun pada 1Q18.
Penopang utama pertumbuhan ini berasal dari lonjakan divisi peternakan dan produk konsumen sebesar 27% dari Rp2,6 triliun pada
Penjualan Tumbuh Menggembirakan JPFA mencatatkan pertumbuhan penjualan yang menggembirakan sebesar 18,7% dari Rp6,62 triliun pada 1Q17 menjadi Rp7,86 triliun pada 1Q18.
Abs. Ret. 20.4% -0.6% -0.3% 33.8% Rel. Ret. 29.9% 8.6% 12.5% 33.7%
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Share Price Performance YTD
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Please consider the rating criteria & important disclaimer NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia Company Report | May 23, 2018 Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk (JPFA) Gemilangnya Outlook Laba 2018 Buy Dec 2018 TP (IDR) 2,000 Consensus Price (IDR) 1,838 TP to Consensus Price +8.8% vs. Last Price +28.6% Shares data
BVPS (IDR) 821 858 879 1,016 EBITDA margin 13.2% 9.9% 9.9% 9.9% NPM 7.6% 3.3% 4.9% 5.2% ROE 26.7% 10.2% 16.6% 18.7% ROA 11.3% 4.9% 7.7% 8.9% ROIC 16.3% 9.4% 12.1% 14.3% P/E 8.0x 15.1x 10.8x 8.8x P/BV 1.8x 1.5x 1.8x 1.5x EV/EBITDA 6.0x 7.1x 6.7x 5.7x DPS (IDR)
EPS growth 340.9% -52.6% 68.4% 22.3%
EBITDA 3,563 2,933 3,359 3,864 Net profit 2,065 979 1,649 2,016 EPS (IDR) 181 86 145 177
Sales growth 8.2% 9.4% 14.2% 15.0%
Sales 27,063 29,603 33,793 38,864
Japfa Comfeed Indonesia , Tbk | Summary (IDR bn) 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E
Basic Industry Poultry Bloomberg JPFA IJ Reuters JPFA.JK Joni Wintarja
5.33 Foreign Ownership 99.9%
3.38 Avg. Trd Val - 3M (bn)
37.0 Outstanding sh.(mn) 11,411 Market Cap (IDR bn) 18,599 Market Cap (USD mn) 1,323 Avg. Trd Vol - 3M (mn)
Last Price (IDR) 1,555 Price date as of May 22, 2018 52 wk range (Hi/Lo) 1,650/1,110 Free float (%)
Target Harga Rp2.000 Kami menggunakan estimasi forward EV/EBITDA sebesar 7,0x (1 SD di atas rata-rata 3 tahun sebesar 5,6x) sebagai basis metode valuasi untuk memperoleh target harga. Target harga ini mengimplikasikan EV/EBITDA 2018E sebesar 8,1x. Saat ini, JPFA diperdagangkan pada EV/EBITDA 2018E sebesar 6,7x.
Sekilas tentang JPFA JPFA merupakan salah satu perusahaan agri-food terbesar dan terkemuka di tanah air, dan penghasil protein hewani yang berkualitas dan terpercaya. JPFA yang setia melayani kebutuhan sejak 1975 menjadi kebanggaan Indonesia sejak 1975.
Kunci kesuksesan JPFA berakar dari konsep layanan terpadu, lengkap, dan menyeluruh yang diberikan kepada seluruh pelanggannya melalui kekuatan jaringan distribusi, dan keagenan yang tersebar di seluruh wilayah Indonesia. JPFA senantiasa menciptakan dan memberikan nilai-nilai tambah kepada mitra industri melalui kekuatan rantai produksi dari formulasi pakan ternak berkualitas, bibit ternak unggul, peternakan ayam broiler, ikan, udang, dan sapi potong hingga produk-produk makanan olahan yang menyeluruh dan terintegrasi.
Daya Saing JPFA di Asia Pasifik Dengan total aset di atas USD1 miliar, JPFA memiliki potensi pertumbuhan laba yang paling tinggi dengan P/E yang paling murah hanya sebesar 10,8x. Dua kekuatan tersebut membuat JPFA menjadi pilihan yang paling atraktif di Asia Pasifik.
Asia Pacific Poultry Market Total Asset Net Profit Net Profit Dividend Company Cap ROE P/E P/BV (USD mn) Growth Margin Yield (USD mn)
JPFA 1,323 1,552 68.4% 4.9% 16.6% 10.8x 1.8x 1.5% CPIN 3,314 1,788 17.9% 5.7% 17.7% 20.3x 3.4x 2.0% MAIN 113 289 648.3% 2.7% 8.5% 10.3x 0.8x 1.4%
Thailand
CHAROEN POKPHAND FOODS 6,895 18,221 3.8% 3.0% 10.1% 12.8x 1.2x 3.8%
Malaysia
CAB CAKARAN CORP BHD 146 252 68.7% 3.9% 19.2% 8.6x 1.4x 0.3%
India
GODREJ AGROVET LTD 1,899 496 -5.7% 5.1% 27.8% 45.8x 11.8x 2.0% AVANTI FEEDS LTD 1,506 163 162.4% 7.8% 45.0% 21.6x 3.7x 0.4%
Vietnam
MASAN GROUP CORP 4,689 2,798 11.1% 8.2% 20.6% 35.5x 7.2x 1.1%
China
CHUYING AGRO-PASTORA GROUP-A 1,934 2,439 -1.2% 14.3% 15.3% 16.3x 2.2x 1.7% TECON BIOLOGY CO LTD - A 1,188 647 11.6% 8.9% 14.6% 18.9x 2.6x 1.3% BAIYANG INVESTMENT GROUP -A 671 276 32.8% 2.9% 5.0% 42.9x 2.0x 0.5% NEW HOPE LIUHE CO LTD-A 4,994 5,387 -10.0% 4.1% 11.2% 13.8x 1.5x 6.7% JUEWEI FOOD CO LTD-A 2,152 283 26.4% 11.7% 28.7% 31.3x 8.2x 1.0% SHANDONG LONGDA MEAT FOOD-A 1,232 331 -16.1% 4.3% 10.5% 40.9x 4.1x 0.9%
Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research
Performance Highlights Sales Breakdown (exclude inter-segment) | 1Q18 Sales Trend | FY2014 - FY2018E
Source: Company, NHKS research Source: Company, NHKS research
JPFA Sales Growth | FY2013 - FY2018E Quarterly JPFA EBITDA Growth | 2016 - 2018
Source: Company, NHKS research Source: Company, NHKS research
Commercial Farm Division Sales Growth | 2015 - 2018 Commercial Farm Division EBIT Growth | 2015 - 2018
Source: Company, NHKS research Source: Company, NHKS research
Multiple Valuation Forward EV/EBITDA Band | Last 3 years Dynamic Forward EV/EBITDA Band | Last 3 years
Source: NHKS research Source: NHKS research
Rating and target price update Target Price Revision Date Rating Target Price Last Price Consensus vs Last Price vs Consensus
06/22/2017 Buy 1,860 (Dec 2017) 1,350 1,532 +37.8% +21.4% 08/10/2017 Buy 1,710 (Dec 2017) 1,110 1,489 +54.1% +14.8% 11/10/2017 Buy 1,740 (Dec 2018) 1,275 1,628 +36.5% +6.9% 01/25/2018 Buy 1,820 (Dec 2018) 1,460 1,649 +24.7% +10.4% 03/28/2018 Buy 1,820 (Dec 2018) 1,460 1,715 +24.7% +6.1% 05/23/2018 Buy 2,000 (Dec 2018) 1,555 1,838 +28.6% +8.8%
Source: NHKS research, Bloomberg
Analyst Coverage Rating Closing and Target Price
Source: Bloomberg Source: NHKS research
NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia (NHKS) stock ratings
Period: End of year target price Rating system based on a stock’s absolute return from the date of publication
Buy : Greater than +15% Hold : -15% to +15% Sell : Less than -15%
Summary of Financials
DISCLAIMER
ROA 11.3% 4.9% 7.7% 8.9% ROIC 16.3% 9.4% 12.1% 14.3% EBITDA/Equi ty 46.0% 30.6% 33.9% 35.7%
in IDR Bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E EBITDA/As s ets 11.3% 4.9% 7.7% 8.9%
Sales 27,063 29,603 33,793 38,864 Ca s h Di vi dend IDR bn) 160 570 270 455
Growth (% y/y) 8.2% 9.4% 14.2% 15.0% Di vi dend Yi el d (%) 1.0% 3.8% 1.5% 2.6%
Cost of Revenue (21,584) (24,572) (27,901) (32,010) Pa yout Ra ti o (%) 34.1% 27.6% 27.6% 27.6%
Gross Profit 5,479 5,031 5,892 6,854 DER 62.6% 62.0% 59.2% 43.9%
Gross Margin 20.2% 17.0% 17.4% 17.6% Net Gea ri ng 91.0% 89.7% 73.4% 52.7%
Opera ti ng Expens es (2,558) (2,735) (3,303) (3,799) LT Debt to Equi ty 38.5% 53.8% 44.7% 38.7%
EBIT 2,921 2,296 2,589 3,055 Ca pi ta l i za ti on Ra ti o 38.5% 38.3% 37.2% 30.5%
EBIT Margin 10.8% 7.8% 7.7% 7.9% Equi ty Ra ti o 48.7% 46.4% 45.6% 50.1%
Depreci a ti on 642 637 770 809 Debt Ra ti o 30.5% 28.8% 27.0% 22.0%
EBITDA 3,563 2,933 3,359 3,864 Fi na nci a l Levera ge 221.7% 200.9% 212.8% 203.6%
EBITDA Margin 13.2% 9.9% 9.9% 9.9% Current Ra ti o 213.0% 234.6% 201.0% 221.3%
Interes t Expens es (510) (569) (574) (561) Qui ck Ra ti o 75.3% 66.7% 53.0% 53.4%
EBT 2,767 1,716 2,429 2,970 Ca s h Ra ti o 52.0% 34.4% 25.6% 21.2%
Income Ta x (595) (626) (617) (755) Cash Conversion CycleJPFA Summary Last Price (IDR) 1,555
Target Price (IDR) 2,000 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E
Rating: Buy ROE 26.7% 10.2% 16.6% 18.7%INCOME STATEMENT BALANCE SHEET
83.0
73 (811) (325) (395) +Depr./Amor. 642 637 770 809
CFO 2,780 805 2,094 2,430 -CAPEX (787) (1,537) (2,200) (1,555)
Ca pex (787) (1,537) (2,200) (1,555) -Incr. (Decr.) i n Worki ng Ca p. 73 (811) (325) (395)CFI (524) (1,399) (1,735) (1,442) (Unl evered) FCFF 2,221 (254) 176 1,138
Di vi dends Pa i d (240) (536) (270) (455) WACCNet Borrowi ng (PMT) (829) 200 (137) (850) Cos t of Debt (Ta x Adj.) 9.3% 6.4% 8.5% 8.7%
CFF (456) (466) (461) (1,305) Cos t of Equi ty (COE) 10.5% 9.6% 9.6% 9.6%
Net Changes in Cash 1,800 (1,059) (101) (317) WACC (%) 10.2% 8.7% 9.3% 9.4%
VALUATION INDEX Analyst: Joni Wintarja CASH FLOW STATEMENT DCF, RIM & EVA
1.3 EVA (IDR mn) 971 139 452 777 OWNERSHIP PROFITABILITY & STABILITY May 22, 2018 Dec 2018
0.2 Di mens i ona l Fund
1.7 ROIC-WACC (%) 7.5% 0.9% 2.9% 4.9% Luxembourg
0.3 Va ngua rd Group
12.0 Inves ted Ca pi ta l (IDR bn) 12,934 15,242 15,865 15,962 Irel a nd
5.7 KKR Ja de INV
51.0 EVA Uni ted Sta tes
75.5 Ja pfa PTE LTD
80 709 1,054
By Geography % Shareholders % Equi ty Cha rge 643 899 940 962
Si nga poreRIM Sprea d (FROE-COE) (%) 23.3% 0.9% 7.2% 10.5% Res i dua l Income (IDR bn) 1,421
40 In IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E Net Income 2,065 979 1,649 2,016 DCF (IDR bn)
Deprec & Amorti za ti on 642 637 770 809 NOPAT 2,293 1,458 1,931 2,279
Chg. In Worki ng Ca pi ta l80.1
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Total Liabilities 9,878 11,293 11,978 11,521 Sa l es PS (IDR) 2,372 2,594 2,962 3,406
Shareholders' Equity 9,373 9,796 10,028 11,590 DPS (IDR)616 756 909 1,045 Ba s i c EPS (IDR) 181 86 145 177 LT Debt 3,609 5,272 4,479 4,479 Di l uted EPS (IDR) 181 86 145 177
Other Non Current Li a b. 1,075 1,251 1,484 1,270 BVPS (IDR) 821 858 879 1,016
17.7 In IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E
Ca s h 2,701 1,642 1,541 1,224 Pri ce /Ea rni ngs 8.0x 15.1x 10.8x 8.8x
Recei va bl es 1,212 1,541 1,645 1,860 Pri ce /Book Va l ue 1.8x 1.5x 1.8x 1.5x
Inventori es 6,259 7,332 8,091 8,945 Pri ce/Sa l es 0.6x 0.5x 0.5x 0.5x
Total Current Assets 11,061 11,189 12,087 12,772 PE/EPS Growth 0.0x -0.3x 0.2x 0.4x
Net Fi xed As s ets 7,541 8,386 8,667 9,413 EV/EBITDA 6.0x 7.1x 6.7x 5.7x
Other Non Current As s ets 649 1,514 1,252 926 EV/EBIT 7.3x 9.1x 8.7x 7.2x
Total Assets 19,251 21,089 22,006 23,110 EV (IDR bn) 21,249 20,836 22,631 22,098
Pa ya bl es 2,317 3,216 3,652 4,122 Sa l es CAGR (3-Yr) 8.1% 6.6% 10.5% 12.8%
ST Ba nk Loa n 2,260 797 1,454 604 EPS CAGR (3-Yr) 51.4% 42.4% 52.1% -0.8%
Other Current Liab.17.7
14.8
16.6
72.5 Mi nori ty Interes t (107) (110) (163) (199) Pa r Va l ue (IDR) 200 200 200 200
Net Profit 2,065 979 1,649 2,016 Tota l Sha res (mn) 11,411 11,411 11,411 11,411
Growth (% y/y) 340.9% -52.6% 68.4% 22.3% Sha re Pri ce (IDR) 1,455 1,300 1,555 1,555
Net Profit Margin 7.6% 3.3% 4.9% 5.2% Ma rket Ca p (IDR tn)75.8
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