NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia
Media Nusantara Citra Tbk (MNCN)
Kuatnya Tekanan pada Kinerja Bottom Line
Company Report | Nov 15, 2018
3Q18: Pertumbuhan Pendapatan Tertinggi pada 2018 Pada 3Q18, MNCN mencatatkan pendapatan sebesar Rp1,84 triliun (+4,8% y-y). Pertumbuhan tertinggi sepanjang 2018, ditopang oleh kenaikan segmen Hold
pendapatan iklan dan konten menjadi Rp1,82 triliun (+6,8% y-y). Kendati tren
Dec 2019 TP (IDR) 875
penurunan beban program & konten secara tahunan sejak 2Q17—terkait Consensus Price (IDR) 1,289
strategi memperbesar porsi konten lokal hingga 100% pada 2018—
tidak TP to Consensus Price -32.1% berlanjut ke 3Q18 dan megerus margin laba kotor 3Q18 menjadi 58,8% (vs. vs. Last Price +12.9% 3Q17: 64,3%).
Shares data Terus Digerus Kerugian Selisih Kurs Last Price (IDR) 775
Kendati kerugian atas selisih kurs pada 3Q18 sebesar Rp155 miliar, lebih rendah
Price date as of Nov 14, 2018
daripada 2Q18, jumlahnya telah menjulang hingga Rp376 miliar sejak awal
52 wk range (Hi/Lo) 1,600 / 730
2018. Kami memproyeksikan bahwa hal ini terus berlanjut hingga akhir 2018,
Free float (%)
42.9
bahkan membumbung lebih tinggi daripada kerugian atas selisih kurs FY15,
Outstanding sh.(mn) 14,276 yang berujung pada penurunan kinerja laba bersih dan net margin pada FY18. Market Cap (IDR bn) 11,064
Depresiasi rupiah pada 2018 turut memperparah
beban keuangan 9M18, yang
Market Cap (USD mn) 747 melonjak hingga 47,8% y-y.Avg. Trd Vol - 3M (mn)
19.0 Avg. Trd Val - 3M (bn)
15.7 Sengitnya Persaingan pada 2018 Foreign Ownership 16.4%
Setelah ajang Asian Games 2018, kinerja audience share MNCN masih di bawah SCMA. Strategi MNCN untuk
fokus perbaikan kualitas konten pun belum Trade, Services & Investment membuahkan hasil: konsistensi sebagai pemimpin pasar. MNCN masih
Media, Television
kesulitan menghadapi persaingan lebih sengit oleh SCMA, berbeda dengan
Bloomberg MNCN IJ kondisi terdahulu pada 2017 ketika MNCN mudah meraih posisi pemimpin pasar. Reuters MNCN.JK
Target Harga Rp875
Kami menggunakan estimasi forward P/E sebesar 7,2x (2,1SD di bawah rata-
Share Price Performance
rata 3 tahun terakhir). Target harga ini mengimplikasikan P/E 2019E sebesar 7,6x. Saat ini, MNCN diperdagangkan pada P/E 2019E sebesar 6,7x.
Media Nusantara Citra Tbk | Summary (IDR bn) 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F
Revenue 7,053 7,361 7,737 8,089
Revenue growth 4.8% 4.4% 5.1% 4.5%
EBITDA 3,097 3,133 3,363 3,504 Net Profit 1,453 1,308 1,640 1,764 EPS (IDR) 102 92 115 124
EPS growth 6.2% 25.4% 7.5%
- -10.0%
YTD
1M
3M
12M
BVPS (IDR) 687 754 840 930
Abs. Ret. -39.7% 4.0% -17.1% -46.2%
EBITDA margin 43.9% 42.6% 43.5% 43.3%
Rel. Ret. -31.9% 1.7% -18.6% -44.3%
NPM 20.6% 17.8% 21.2% 21.8% ROE 15.1% 9.2% 9.1% 9.1% ROA 9.9% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% ROIC 12.9% 13.9% 13.0% 12.6% P/E 12.6x 8.5x 6.7x 6.3x P/BV 1.9x 1.0x 0.9x 0.8x
Michael Tjahjadi
EV/EBITDA 6.2x 3.7x 3.3x 2.9x
- 62 21 797 6202, ext:114
DPS (IDR) 15 15 20 22
michael@nhsec.co.id Dividend yield 1.1% 1.9% 2.5% 2.9%
Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, NHKS Research Please consider the rating criteria & important disclaimer NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia
Media Nusantara Citra www.nhsec.co.id
Source: Company, NHKS Research MNCN Quarterly Net Profit | 3Q16 - 3Q18
Source: Company, NHKS Research MNCN Quarterly Revenue | 3Q16 - 3Q18
All-Time Audience Share by Group | Jan ‘17 - Oct ‘18 Source: Company, NHKS Research
Margin Ratios | 3Q17 - 3Q18 Source: Company, NHKS Research
Performance Highlights MNCN Quarterly Ads & Content Revenue | 3Q16 - 3Q18
Source: Company, NHKS Research Prime Time Audience Share by Group | Jan ‘17 - Oct ‘18
Source: Company, NHKS Research
Media Nusantara Citra www.nhsec.co.id
3Q18 review (IDR bn)
3Q18
3Q17
4Q17
1Q18
2Q18
4Q18E Actual Estimate y-y q-q surprise
Revenue 1,756 1,671 1,602 2,087 1,840 1,815 4.8% -11.8% 1.4% 1,831 Gross Profit 1,130 1,138 939 1,261 1,082 1,193 -4.3% -14.2% -9.4% 1,150
Gross Margin 64.3% 68.1% 58.6% 60.4% 58.8% 65.7% 62.8%
- -5.6% -1.6% -7.0%
EBIT 714 704 528 790 674 770 -5.7% -14.7% -12.5% 674
EBIT Margin 40.7% 42.2% 32.9% 37.8% 36.6% 42.4% -4.1% -1.2% -5.8% 36.8%
EBITDA 826 800 638 911 781 898 -5.4% -14.3% -13.0% 803
EBITDA Margin 47.0% 47.9% 39.8% 43.6% 42.4% 49.5% -4.6% -1.2% -7.0% 43.9% Net Profit 347 332 274 362 353 271 1.7% 2.7% 30.2% 319 -
Net Margin 19.7% 19.8% 17.1% 17.4% 19.2% 14.9% -0.6% 1.8% 4.2% 17.4% Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research Earnings revision (IDR bn) 2018E 2019F 2020F
7,361 7,737 8,089
- Revised Revenue >Previous 7,368 7,696 8> -Change -0.1% 0.5% 1.0%
- Revised Gross Profit
- Previous 4,682 4,954 5,208
- Change -5.4% -5.6% -6.0%
- Revised 60.2% 60.4% 60.6% Gross Margin
- Previous EBIT -Revised 2,665 2,833 2> -Previous 2,872 3,115 3
- Change -7.2% -9.0% -10.3%
- Previous 39.0% 40.5% 41.0% EBITDA -Revised 3,133 3,363 3> -Previous 3,357 3,655 3
- Change -6.7% -8.0% -9.4%
- Previous 45.6% 47.5% 48.3%
- Revised
- -Previous 1,267 1,633 1,827
- -Change 3.3% 0.5% -3.2%
- Revised 17.8% 21.2% 21.9% Net Margin
- Previous
- 11.02%
- 22.95%
- 35.61%
- 54.81%
- 19.4% 09/17/2018 Buy 1,125 (Dec 2018) 840 1,396 +33.9% 11/14/2018 Hold 875 (Dec 2019) 775 1,289 +12.9% -32.1%
4,431 4,675 4,898
63.5% 64.4% 65.0%
36.2% 36.6% 36.4%
EBIT Margin -Revised
42.6% 43.5% 43.3%
EBITDA Margin -Revised
Net Profit 1,308 1,642 1,769
17.2% 21.2% 22.8%
Source: NHKS research
53
Hubei Broadcasting 676 1,454 422 45 -4.72% 10.7% 4.86% 15.8x 0.7x
China
0.6% 0.26% 730.0x 1.9x
1
TV18 Broadcast Ltd 865 1,040 229
India
9.7% 9.94% 54.1x 5.8x
2
21
35
14.9% 22.57% 11.6x 2.6x Manila Broadcasting Co 107
42
6.8% 10.65% 5.9x 0.5x GMA Network Inc 331 296 282
ABS-CBN Corp 318 1,503 784
Media Nusantara Citra www.nhsec.co.id Asia Pacific Media Company
Philippines
BEC World PCL 346 440 307 (13) N/A -4.1% -6.23% N/A 1.8x MCOT PCL 191 214 73 (79) -285.30% -107.0% -51.28% N/A 1.7x
Thailand
Astro Malaysia Holdings 1,404 1,756 1,360 128 -29.60% 9.4% 82.61% 11.3x 10.1x
Malaysia
VIVA 127 569 204 2 -90.11% 1.2% 1.6% 56.6x 0.9x
SCMA 1,798 396 347 103 -0.85% 29.6% 32.3% 18.6x 5.8x MNCN 747 1,108 518 95 26.05% 18.3% 14.2% 8.0x 1.0x
Source: Bloomberg Company Market Cap (USD mn) Asset (USD mn) Revenue LTM (USD mn) Net Profit LTM (USD mn) Net Profit Growth LTM Net Margin ROE LTM P/E LTM P/BV Indonesia
Di antara perusahaan media di Asia Pasifik, MNCN mampu mencatatkan kinerja pendapatan, laba bersih serta pertumbuhan laba bersih yang tinggi, bahkan menjadi salah satu yang terbaik. Selain itu, Indonesia sendiri merupakan salah satu tempat yang baik bagi berkembangnya bisnis media, khususnys media televisi. Jumlah penduduk yang besar serta tingkat penetrasi TV free-to-air yang tinggi membuat para pegiat industri fast moving consumer goods, rokok dan e-commerce memanfaatkan media televisi sebagai sarana utama program pemasaran. Selain itu, Indonesia juga memiliki biaya produksi dan beban usaha yang relatif lebih rendah dibandingkan negara-negara berkembang di Asia Pasifik lainnya.
Daya Saing MNCN di Asia Pasifik
management. Pada Juni 2018, MNCN telah melakukan IPO terhadap anak usahanya yang bergerak di bidang konten, PT MNC
Studios International Tbk (MSIN).Untuk mendukung bisnis inti, MNCN juga memiliki segmen bisnis radio, media cetak, produksi konten, content library dan talent
MNCN merupakah salah satu perusahaan media dengan portfolio stasiun TV free-to-air terbanyak di Indonesia. Empat stasiun TV free-to-air milik MNCN meliputi RCTI, MNCTV, GTV yang berfokus pada konten entertainment dan iNews dengan konten berita dan olahraga. Selain itu, MNCN juga memiliki 20 stasiun TV berlangganan.
Sekilas tentang MNCN
Media Nusantara Citra www.nhsec.co.id
Multiple Valuation Forward P/E band | Last 3 years Dynamic Forward P/E band | Last 3 years Source: NHKS research Source: NHKS research Rating and Target Price Update Target Price Revision Date Rating Target Price Last Price Consensus vs Last Price vs Consensus
05/03/2018 Buy 1,550 (Dec 2018) 1,305 1,902 +18.8% -18.5% 07/12/2018 Buy 1,125 (Dec 2018) 905 1,595 +24.3% -29.5%
Source: NHKS research, Bloomberg Analyst Coverage Rating Closing and Target Price Source: Bloomberg
Source: NHKS research
NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia (NHKS) stock ratings
1. Period: End of year target price
2. Rating system based on a stock’s absolute return from the date of publication
Buy : Greater than +15%
Hold : -15% to +15% Sell : Less than -15%
Media Nusantara Citra www.nhsec.co.id
Summary of Financials
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