Berita investasi, saham, reksadana dan perencanaan keuangan
Premier Insight
25 January 2018
Corporates
JCI Index
12,000
6,700
6,600
10,000
6,500
8,000
Rp bn
JCI Index
6,400
6,000
6,300
6,200
4,000
6,100
2,000
6,000
24-Jan
23-Jan
22-Jan
19-Jan
18-Jan
17-Jan
16-Jan
15-Jan
12-Jan
9-Jan
11-Jan
8-Jan
10-Jan
5-Jan
4-Jan
3-Jan
2-Jan
29-Dec
28-Dec
27-Dec
22-Dec
-
21-Dec
5,900
Foreign net buy (sell)
2,500
50%
2,000
20%
500
10%
24-Jan
23-Jan
22-Jan
19-Jan
18-Jan
17-Jan
16-Jan
15-Jan
12-Jan
11-Jan
10-Jan
0%
% net buy/market turnover
30%
1,000
(500)
BBRI: Bank BRI (BBRI IJ; Rp3,830; Hold) reported good results with net profit of
Rp29tn in FY17(+10.7% yoy) and Rp8.5tn in 4Q17 (+20% qoq) – this was 3%
above our/consensus estimates due to much lower loan provision of Rp0.95tn in
4Q (3Q: Rp4.8tn) due to front loading in prior 3 quarters. Profit growth was
driven by loan growth (11.4%), stable NIM (7.8%), modest opex growth (10%),
despite 25% rise in provision (credit cost: 2.5%). Core profit grew by 13% in
FY17 although lower in 4Q (-12% qoq) albeit offset by the steep fall in provision.
NPL ratio improved to 1.0% (2016: 1.2%), due to higher write-offs of Rp9.5tn
(FY16: Rp8.4tn), while provision/NPL improved to 195% (vs. 170%). Guidance
for 2018: loan growth of 10-12%, NIM of 7.7-7.9%, opex growth of 10-12%, NPL
of 2.0-2.2%, credit cost of 2.0-2.2%, profit growth of 9-11%. We keep our Hold
rating at this stage. (Company).
40%
1,500
Net buy (sell) in Rp bn
Equity | Indonesia | Research Daily
News & Analysis
-10%
(1,000)
(1,500)
-20%
Key Indexes
Index
Closing
1 day
1 year
YTD
JCI
6,615
- 0.3%
25.0%
4.1%
LQ45
1,124
- 0.7%
27.1%
4.2%
26,252
0.2%
30.8%
6.2%
DJI
SET
1,839
0.4%
16.1%
4.9%
HSI
32,959
0.1%
43.0%
10.2%
NKY
23,941
- 0.8%
25.6%
4.4%
FTSE
7,643
- 1.1%
6.7%
-0.6%
FSSTI
3,592
0.0%
18.2%
6.1%
30
0.7%
23.7%
6.6%
EIDO
Commodity price
Commodities
65.7
1.8%
25.1%
CPO/tonne
645.6
1.1%
-19.9%
Soy/bushel
9.7
0.9%
-6.7%
Rubber/kg
1.7
1.6%
-40.6%
Nickel/tonne
13,540
5.7%
39.0%
Tins/tonne
21,300
2.3%
4.6%
Copper/tonne
7,111
3.3%
20.0%
Gold/try.oz (Spot)
1,358
1.3%
13.1%
Coal/tonne
107.0
0.4%
27.7%
3.3
1.8%
-4.3%
433.0
2.7%
1.5%
Corn/bushel
Wheat/bushel (USd)
Source : Bloomberg
TOWR: Menara Sarana (TOWR IJ; Rp3,940; Buy) has allocated capex of Rp2.0tn
for FY18 of which 30% is allocated for new tower development. Investment cost
for a new tower ranges from Rp900mn-1bn. Currently, TOWR has built to suit
order from XL Axiata and Hitchison 3 Indonesia. Furthermore, the company aims
for revenue growth of 5-9% in FY18. (Bisnis Indonesia).
SMSM: Selamat Sempurna (SMSM IJ; Rp1,330; Buy) has budgeted capex of
Rp120bn for FY18, which roughly similar with the previous years. Meanwhile,
revenue is expected to grow by 10% in FY18. The company aims to increase its
SKU by 10% for this year. Selamat Sempurna is currently running 6,000 SKU for
filtration products and 2,000 SKU of radiator. (Bisnis Indonesia).
Last price Ret 1 day Ret 1 year
(in USD)
Oil/barrel (WTI)
KAEF: Kimia Farma (KAEF IJ; Rp2,450; Not Rated) has inaugurate their rapid test
production facility in Denpasar, Bali. Rapid test is a kind of detector various illnes
i.e. HIV, siphilis, hepatitis, malaria, and dengue. The management stated that
they forrecast this rapid test production facility could contribute revenue around
Rp100bn on its first year operation. This complete this facility, the company
already spent around Rp26bn which already include building construction and
production tools. (Kontan).
SMGR: Semen Indonesia’s (SMGR IJ; Rp10,725; Hold) sales volume was 28.9mn
tons in FY18 (+10% yoy), consist of 27.1mn tons sold in the domestic market
and 1.9mn tons sold to the export market. This year the company expects to
grow its volume by 5%, relatively in line with industry in order to maintain market
share of 40%. Semen Indonesia’s production capacity will increase to 35mn tons
with the completion of Rembang and Indarung plant. (Kontan).
Markets & Sector
Gas Sector: The Government is still exploring alternative ways to reduce gas
selling price to US$6/MMBTU from current level of US$8-9/MMBTU. According to
the Vice Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, the Government could reduce
non tax revenue in order to reduce gas price. If the Government reduce non tax
revenue by US$4.3mn, gas selling price could be reduce by US$0.3-0.7/MMBTU.
The Vice Minister also addressed, that it is unlikely to reduce gas selling price to
US$6/MMBTU.
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
PremierInsight
Oil and gas sector: Oil prices turned higher after the U.S. Energy Information
Administration reported that U.S. commercial crude stockpiles fell by 1.1mn
barrels in the week through Jan. 19. That put total inventories at 411.6mn barrels,
the lowest since February 2015. Also, The U.S. dollar index hit a new three-year
low on Wednesday which encourages purchases of dollar-denominated
commodities like crude oil. (CNBC).
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
2
Head Office
PT INDO PREMIER SEKURITAS
Wisma GKBI 7/F Suite 718
Jl. Jend. Sudirman No.28
Jakarta 10210 - Indonesia
p +62.21.5793.1168
f +62.21.5793.1167
INVESTMENT RATINGS
BUY
: Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period
HOLD
: Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period
SELL
: Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period
ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION.
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst;s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the
research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
DISCLAIMERS
This reserch is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warraty nor accept any responsibility
or liability as to its accruracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general
circulation. Any recommendations contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, finacial situation and the particular
needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any
securities. PT. Indo Premier Sekuritas or its affiliates may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report.
25 January 2018
Corporates
JCI Index
12,000
6,700
6,600
10,000
6,500
8,000
Rp bn
JCI Index
6,400
6,000
6,300
6,200
4,000
6,100
2,000
6,000
24-Jan
23-Jan
22-Jan
19-Jan
18-Jan
17-Jan
16-Jan
15-Jan
12-Jan
9-Jan
11-Jan
8-Jan
10-Jan
5-Jan
4-Jan
3-Jan
2-Jan
29-Dec
28-Dec
27-Dec
22-Dec
-
21-Dec
5,900
Foreign net buy (sell)
2,500
50%
2,000
20%
500
10%
24-Jan
23-Jan
22-Jan
19-Jan
18-Jan
17-Jan
16-Jan
15-Jan
12-Jan
11-Jan
10-Jan
0%
% net buy/market turnover
30%
1,000
(500)
BBRI: Bank BRI (BBRI IJ; Rp3,830; Hold) reported good results with net profit of
Rp29tn in FY17(+10.7% yoy) and Rp8.5tn in 4Q17 (+20% qoq) – this was 3%
above our/consensus estimates due to much lower loan provision of Rp0.95tn in
4Q (3Q: Rp4.8tn) due to front loading in prior 3 quarters. Profit growth was
driven by loan growth (11.4%), stable NIM (7.8%), modest opex growth (10%),
despite 25% rise in provision (credit cost: 2.5%). Core profit grew by 13% in
FY17 although lower in 4Q (-12% qoq) albeit offset by the steep fall in provision.
NPL ratio improved to 1.0% (2016: 1.2%), due to higher write-offs of Rp9.5tn
(FY16: Rp8.4tn), while provision/NPL improved to 195% (vs. 170%). Guidance
for 2018: loan growth of 10-12%, NIM of 7.7-7.9%, opex growth of 10-12%, NPL
of 2.0-2.2%, credit cost of 2.0-2.2%, profit growth of 9-11%. We keep our Hold
rating at this stage. (Company).
40%
1,500
Net buy (sell) in Rp bn
Equity | Indonesia | Research Daily
News & Analysis
-10%
(1,000)
(1,500)
-20%
Key Indexes
Index
Closing
1 day
1 year
YTD
JCI
6,615
- 0.3%
25.0%
4.1%
LQ45
1,124
- 0.7%
27.1%
4.2%
26,252
0.2%
30.8%
6.2%
DJI
SET
1,839
0.4%
16.1%
4.9%
HSI
32,959
0.1%
43.0%
10.2%
NKY
23,941
- 0.8%
25.6%
4.4%
FTSE
7,643
- 1.1%
6.7%
-0.6%
FSSTI
3,592
0.0%
18.2%
6.1%
30
0.7%
23.7%
6.6%
EIDO
Commodity price
Commodities
65.7
1.8%
25.1%
CPO/tonne
645.6
1.1%
-19.9%
Soy/bushel
9.7
0.9%
-6.7%
Rubber/kg
1.7
1.6%
-40.6%
Nickel/tonne
13,540
5.7%
39.0%
Tins/tonne
21,300
2.3%
4.6%
Copper/tonne
7,111
3.3%
20.0%
Gold/try.oz (Spot)
1,358
1.3%
13.1%
Coal/tonne
107.0
0.4%
27.7%
3.3
1.8%
-4.3%
433.0
2.7%
1.5%
Corn/bushel
Wheat/bushel (USd)
Source : Bloomberg
TOWR: Menara Sarana (TOWR IJ; Rp3,940; Buy) has allocated capex of Rp2.0tn
for FY18 of which 30% is allocated for new tower development. Investment cost
for a new tower ranges from Rp900mn-1bn. Currently, TOWR has built to suit
order from XL Axiata and Hitchison 3 Indonesia. Furthermore, the company aims
for revenue growth of 5-9% in FY18. (Bisnis Indonesia).
SMSM: Selamat Sempurna (SMSM IJ; Rp1,330; Buy) has budgeted capex of
Rp120bn for FY18, which roughly similar with the previous years. Meanwhile,
revenue is expected to grow by 10% in FY18. The company aims to increase its
SKU by 10% for this year. Selamat Sempurna is currently running 6,000 SKU for
filtration products and 2,000 SKU of radiator. (Bisnis Indonesia).
Last price Ret 1 day Ret 1 year
(in USD)
Oil/barrel (WTI)
KAEF: Kimia Farma (KAEF IJ; Rp2,450; Not Rated) has inaugurate their rapid test
production facility in Denpasar, Bali. Rapid test is a kind of detector various illnes
i.e. HIV, siphilis, hepatitis, malaria, and dengue. The management stated that
they forrecast this rapid test production facility could contribute revenue around
Rp100bn on its first year operation. This complete this facility, the company
already spent around Rp26bn which already include building construction and
production tools. (Kontan).
SMGR: Semen Indonesia’s (SMGR IJ; Rp10,725; Hold) sales volume was 28.9mn
tons in FY18 (+10% yoy), consist of 27.1mn tons sold in the domestic market
and 1.9mn tons sold to the export market. This year the company expects to
grow its volume by 5%, relatively in line with industry in order to maintain market
share of 40%. Semen Indonesia’s production capacity will increase to 35mn tons
with the completion of Rembang and Indarung plant. (Kontan).
Markets & Sector
Gas Sector: The Government is still exploring alternative ways to reduce gas
selling price to US$6/MMBTU from current level of US$8-9/MMBTU. According to
the Vice Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, the Government could reduce
non tax revenue in order to reduce gas price. If the Government reduce non tax
revenue by US$4.3mn, gas selling price could be reduce by US$0.3-0.7/MMBTU.
The Vice Minister also addressed, that it is unlikely to reduce gas selling price to
US$6/MMBTU.
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
PremierInsight
Oil and gas sector: Oil prices turned higher after the U.S. Energy Information
Administration reported that U.S. commercial crude stockpiles fell by 1.1mn
barrels in the week through Jan. 19. That put total inventories at 411.6mn barrels,
the lowest since February 2015. Also, The U.S. dollar index hit a new three-year
low on Wednesday which encourages purchases of dollar-denominated
commodities like crude oil. (CNBC).
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
2
Head Office
PT INDO PREMIER SEKURITAS
Wisma GKBI 7/F Suite 718
Jl. Jend. Sudirman No.28
Jakarta 10210 - Indonesia
p +62.21.5793.1168
f +62.21.5793.1167
INVESTMENT RATINGS
BUY
: Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period
HOLD
: Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period
SELL
: Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period
ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION.
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst;s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the
research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
DISCLAIMERS
This reserch is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warraty nor accept any responsibility
or liability as to its accruracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general
circulation. Any recommendations contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, finacial situation and the particular
needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any
securities. PT. Indo Premier Sekuritas or its affiliates may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report.