HMSP Penetrasi Pasar Yang Lebih Besar 20180531 NHKS Company Report (Bahasa)
Margin Keuntungan Tertekan HMSP mencatat pertumbuhan penjualan sebesar 2,5% dari Rp22,5 triliun pada 1Q17 menjadi Rp23,1 triliun pada 1Q18. Namun laba bersih HMSP mengalami penurunan sebesar 8% dari Rp3,29 triliun pada 1Q17 menjadi Rp3,03 triliun pada 1Q18. Faktor penghambat pertumbuhan laba adalah kenaikan pita cukai hingga sebesar 11% yang mengakibatkan porsi beban cukai HMSP terhadap penjualan meningkat dari 45% pada 1Q17 menjadi 51% pada 1Q18.
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BVPS (IDR) 294 293 297 306 EBITDA margin 17.5% 16.8% 16.0% 16.0% NPM 13.4% 12.8% 12.1% 12.1% ROE 37.3% 37.1% 37.3% 38.5% ROA 30.0% 29.4% 29.9% 30.7% ROIC 35.1% 35.0% 35.5% 36.6% P/E 34.9x 43.4x 34.7x 32.6x P/BV 13.0x 16.1x 12.9x 12.6x EV/EBITDA 26.3x 32.5x 26.0x 24.4x DPS (IDR) 89 108 107 109
EPS growth 23.1% -0.7% 1.9% 6.2%
EBITDA 16,745 16,696 16,992 18,064 Net profit 12,762 12,671 12,911 13,718 EPS (IDR) 110 109 111 118
Sales growth 7.2% 3.8% 7.3% 6.5%
Sales 95,467 99,091 106,283 113,216
2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E
Target Harga Rp4.575 Kami menggunakan estimasi forward P/E sebesar 38,9x (+1SD dari rata-rata 3 tahun sebesar 35,5x) untuk memperoleh target harga pada Desember 2018. Target harga ini mengimplikasikan P/E 2018/E sebesar 41,2x. Saat ini, HMSP diperdagangkan pada P/E 2018E sebesar 34,7x.
Pangsa Pasar HMSP Meningkat HMSP tetap menjadi saham andalan karena keberhasilan memperbesar pangsa pasar dari 33,0% pada 1Q17 menjadi 33,2% pada 1Q18. Kenaikan pangsa pasar ini ditopang oleh kinerja yang baik dari penjualan Marlboro Filter Black dan Dji Sam Soe Magnum Mild, sebuah terobosan untuk tipe rokok SKM dengan rasa ringan yang diluncurkan pada Mei 2017.
Penurunan ini disebabkan peningkatan pita cukai rokok yang melampaui inflasi Indonesia. Pada 2018, diperkirakan bahwa volume penjualan rokok di Indonesia akan mengalami penurunan 1%-3%.
Kenaikan Cukai Lampaui Inflasi Total volume penjualan rokok di Indonesia mengalami penurunan sebesar 2,3% dari 71 miliar batang pada 1Q17 menjadi 69,3 miliar pada 1Q18.
Abs. Ret. -18.6% 9.1% -20.1% 0.8% Rel. Ret. -14.1% 6.5% -12.1% -5.4%
Please consider the rating criteria & important disclaimer NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia Company Report | May 31, 2018 Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk (HMSP) Penetrasi Pasar Yang Lebih Besar Buy Dec 2018 TP (IDR) 4,575 Consensus Price (IDR) 4,311 TP to Consensus Price +6.1% vs. Last Price +18.8% Shares data
12M
3M
1M
Share Price Performance YTD
HM Sampoerna Tbk | Summary (IDR bn) Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, NHKS Research
Consumer Staples Cigarette Bloomberg HMSP IJ Reuters HMSP.JK Joni Wintarja
92.67 Foreign Ownership 1.87%
23.35 Avg. Trd Val - 3M (bn)
7.5 Outstanding sh.(mn) 116,318 Market Cap (IDR bn) 443,171 Market Cap (USD mn) 31,825 Avg. Trd Vol - 3M (mn)
Last Price (IDR) 3,850 Price date as of May 28, 2018 52 wk range (Hi/Lo) 5,500/3,280 Free float (%)
Dividend yield 2.3% 2.3% 2.8% 2.8%
Sekilas tentang HMSP HMSP memproduksi sejumlah merek rokok kretek yang dikenal luas di Indonesia, yaitu Sampoerna A, Sampoerna kretek, Sampoerna U, serta “Raja Kretek” yang legendaris Dji Sam Soe. HMSP merupakan afiliasi dari Philip Morris Internasional Inc., perusahaan rokok tembakau internasional terkemuka di dunia.
HMSP memimpin pasar rokok di Indonesia dengan pangsa pasar sebesar 33,2%. HMSP menjual dan mendistribusikan rokok melalui 104 kantor area penjualan di seluruh Indonesia.
Daya Saing HMSP di Asia Pasifik Untuk perusahaan rokok dengan kapitalisasi pasar melampaui USD10 miliar, HMSP memiliki ROE yang paling tinggi, yakni sebesar 37,3%, kemudian diikuti oleh ITC Ltd di India sebesar 23,1%. Ditopang oleh pangsa pasar yang semakin luas dengan efisiensi biaya yang semakin baik, laba bersih HMSP diperkirakan akan meningkat tipis sebesar 1,9% pada 2018.
Valuasi P/E HMSP yang sangat tinggi hingga sebesar 34,7x menjadikan HMSP sebagai emiten dengan valuasi paling mahal di Asia Pasifik. Namun dengan free floating yang hanya 7,5%, valuasi yang mahal ini menunjukkan minat investor pada HMSP yang cukup tinggi.
Asia Pacific Cigarette Company Market Cap Total Asset Net Profit Net Profit Dividend Company ROE P/E P/BV (USD mn) (USD mn) Growth Margin Yield
HMSP 31,825 3,175 1.9% 12.1% 37.3% 34.7x 12.9x 2.8% GGRM 10,886 4,649 8.5% 9.2% 19.2% 17.0x 3.1x 3.5%
India
ITC Ltd 48,770 8,625 10.1% 24.3% 23.1% 30.7x 6.8x 1.8%
VST Industries Ltd 699 123 9.2% 17.7% 36.9% 27.2x 8.5x 2.5% Godfrey Phillips India Ltd 645 340 -19.3% 6.0% 8.5% 30.7x 2.5x 1.0%
Malaysia
British American Tobacco Bhd 1,936 257 -31.7% 16.4% 99.0% 15.4x 19.8x 9.4%
Japan
Japan Tobacco Inc 55,837 46,380 -6.9% 18.3% 15.0% 13.6x 1.9x 4.7%
South Korea
KT&G Corp 12,635 9,346 -5.4% 24.9% 15.7% 10.7x 1.6x 4.1%
Sri Lanka
Ceylon Tobacco Co Plc 1,277 162 16.2% 10.5% 362.2% 13.6x 43.4x 6.2% Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research
Performance Highlights HMSP Quarterly Sales | 2016 - 2018 HMSP Quarterly Sales by Volume | 2016 - 2018
Source: Company, NHKS Research Source: Company, NHKS Research
HMSP Quarterly Net Profit | 2016 - 2018 Machine-made Clove Cigarettes Sales Growth | 2016 -
Source: Company, NHKS Research Source: Company, NHKS Research
Hand-rolled Clove Cigarettes Sales Growth | 2016 - 2018 White Cigarettes Sales Growth | 2016 - 2018
Source: Company, NHKS Research Source: Company, NHKS Research
Multiple Valuation Forward P/E band | Last 3 Years Dynamic Forward P/E band | Last 3 Years
Source: NHKS research Source: NHKS research
Rating and target price update Target Price Revision
Date Rating Target Price Last Price Consensus vs Last Price vs Consensus
06/05/2017 Buy 4,620 (Dec 2017) 3,850 4,148 +20.0% +11.4% 08/07/2017 Hold 3,780 (Dec 2017) 3,470 4,080 +8.9% -7.4% 11/15/2017 Buy 4,690 (Dec 2018) 4,050 4,144 +15.8% +13.2% 03/16/2018 Buy 5,025 (Dec 2018) 4,310 4,552 +16.6% +10.4% 05/31/2018 Buy 4,575 (Dec 2018) 3,850 4,311 +18.8% +6.1%
Source: NHKS research, Bloomberg
Analyst Coverage Rating Closing and Target Price
Source: Bloomberg Source: NHKS research
NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia (NHKS) stock ratings
Period: End of year target price Rating system based on a stock’s absolute return from the date of publication
Buy : Greater than +15% Hold : -15% to +15% Sell : Less than -15%
Summary of Financials
DISCLAIMER
ROA 30.0% 29.4% 29.9% 30.7% ROIC 35.1% 35.0% 35.5% 36.6% EBITDA/Equi ty 49.0% 48.9% 49.1% 50.7%
HMSP Summary Last Price (IDR) 3,850
Target Price (IDR) 4,575 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E
Rating: Buy ROE 37.3% 37.1% 37.3% 38.5%INCOME STATEMENT BALANCE SHEET
in IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E EBITDA/As s ets 39.4% 38.7% 39.3% 40.5%
Sales 95,467 99,091 106,283 113,216 Ca s h Di vi dend (IDR bn) 10,352 12,527 12,442 12,679
Growth (% y/y) 7.2% 3.8% 7.3% 6.5% Di vi dend Yi el d (%) 2.3% 2.3% 2.8% 2.8%
23 10 (6) Cos t of Debt (Ta x Adj.) 7.7% 6.6% 6.5% 11.3%
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76 BVPS (IDR) 294 293 297 306 Other Non Current Li a b. 1,839 2,465 2,353 2,409 Sa l es PS (IDR) 821 852 914 973
Total Liabilities 8,333 9,028 8,622 9,001 DPS (IDR)
89 108 107 109
Shareholders' Equity 34,175 34,113 34,597 35,636
in IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E
Net Income 12,762 12,671 12,911 13,718 DCF (IDR bn) Deprec & Amorti za ti on 724 598 643 675 NOPAT 12,019 12,072 12,311 13,068 Chg. In Worki ng Ca pi ta l 590 2,113 (1,268) (425) +Depr./Amor. 724 598 643 675
Ca pex (1,348) (708) (607) (693) -Incr. (Decr.) i n Worki ng Ca p. 590 2,113 (1,268) (425)
CFI (362) (386) (654) (670) (Unl evered) FCFF 11,985 14,076 11,079 12,625
Di vi dends Pa i d (10,352) (12,527) (12,442) (12,679) WACC Net Borrowi ng (PMT)
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CFF (10,377) (12,550) (12,417) (12,685) Cos t of Equi ty (COE) 9.0% 11.5% 11.9% 11.9%
Net Changes in Cash 3,337 2,446 (785) 613 WACC (%) 9.0% 11.5% 11.9% 11.9%
RIMCOGS (71,612) (74,876) (81,176) (86,497) Pa yout Ra ti o (%) 99.9% 98.2% 98.2% 98.2%
Sprea d (FROE-COE) (%) 28.4% 25.7% 25.4% 26.6% Res i dua l Income (IDR bn) 9,690 8,751 8,780 9,463
By Geography % Shareholders % Equi ty Cha rge 3,072 3,920 4,131 4,255
Indones i a 98.1 Phi l i p Morri s Ind.
92.5 EVA Uni ted Sta tes
1.0 Schroder Inves tment
0.4 Inves ted Ca pi ta l (IDR bn) 34,262 34,222 34,716 35,749 Luxembourg
0.3 Va ntobel Hol di ng AG
0.3 ROIC-WACC (%) 26.1% 23.8% 23.5% 24.6% Ca na da
0.2 Bl a ckrock
0.3 EVA (USD mn) 8,939 8,140 8,166 8,800
CASH FLOW STATEMENT DCF, RIM & EVA OWNERSHIP PROFITABILITY & STABILITY May 28, 2018 Dec 2018 Analyst: Joni Wintarja
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37 Ba s i c EPS (IDR) 110 109 111 118 Other Current Li a b. 2,537 2,788 2,174 2,481 Di l uted EPS (IDR) 110 109 111 118 LT Debt
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Gross Profit 23,855 24,216 25,107 26,719 DER 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Gross Margin 25.0% 24.4% 23.6% 23.6% Net Gea ri ng 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8%
Opera ti ng Expens es (7,834) (8,119) (8,758) (9,329) LT Debt to Equi ty 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
EBIT 16,020 16,097 16,349 17,390 Ca pi ta l i za ti on Ra ti o 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
EBIT Margin 16.8% 16.2% 15.4% 15.4% Equi ty Ra ti o 80.4% 79.1% 80.1% 79.8%
Depreci a ti on 724 598 643 675 Debt Ra ti o 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
EBITDA 16,745 16,696 16,992 18,064 Fi na nci a l Levera ge 124.4% 126.5% 124.9% 125.3%
EBITDA Margin 17.5% 16.8% 16.0% 16.0% Current Ra ti o 523.4% 527.2% 555.0% 548.2%
Interes t Expens es (22) (9) (10) (11) Qui ck Ra ti o 130.3% 171.2% 170.9% 175.6%
EBT 17,011 16,895 17,146 18,254 Ca s h Ra ti o 78.7% 115.7% 108.5% 112.5%
Income Ta x (4,249) (4,224) (4,235) (4,537) Ca s h Convers i on Cycl e
92.1
83.2
83.2
79.2 Mi nori ty Interes t - - - - Pa r Va l ue (IDR)
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4 Net Profit 12,762 12,671 12,911 13,718 Tota l Sha res (mn) 116,318 116,318 116,318 116,318
Growth (% y/y) 23.1% -0.7% 1.9% 6.2% Sha re Pri ce (IDR) 3,830 4,730 3,850 3,850
Net Profit Margin 13.4% 12.8% 12.1% 12.1% Ma rket Ca p (IDR tn) 445.5 550.2 447.8 447.8
in IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E
Ca s h 5,056 7,502 6,717 7,330 Pri ce /Ea rni ngs 34.9x 43.4x 34.7x 32.6x Recei va bl es 3,323 3,598 3,859 4,111 Pri ce /Book Va l ue 13.0x 16.1x 12.9x 12.6x Inventori es 19,442 18,023 19,540 19,636 Pri ce/Sa l es 4.7x 5.6x 4.2x 4.0x Other Current As s ets 5,827 5,057 4,242 4,650 PE/EPS Growth 1.5x -60.4x 18.3x 5.2x
Total Current Assets 33,647 34,180 34,358 35,726 EV/EBITDA 26.3x 32.5x 26.0x 24.4x
Net Fi xed As s ets 6,895 7,005 6,969 6,987 EV/EBIT 27.5x 33.7x 27.0x 25.3x Other Non Current As s ets
1,965 1,956 1,892 1,924 EV (IDR bn) 440,529 542,792 441,223 440,604
Total Assets 42,508 43,141 43,218 44,638 Sa l es CAGR (3-Yr) 8.4% 7.1% 6.1% 5.8%
Pa ya bl es 3,871 3,666 3,975 3,999 EPS CAGR (3-Yr) 5.7% 7.6% 7.6% 2.4% ST Debt
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