BBRI Arah yang Lebih Pasti Ke Depan 20180815 NHKS Company Report (Bahasa)

BBRI IJ

• 62 21 797 6202, ext:214

  ROA

  2.8% 2.7% 2.8% 3.0%

  ROIC 18.4% 18.2% 18.3% 19.3% P/E 11.0x 15.5x 11.7x 9.9x P/BV 2.0x 2.7x 2.1x 1.9x DPS (IDR) 85 106 147 142

  Dividend yield 3.6% 2.9% 4.7% 4.5% Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, NHKS Research

  Share Price Performance YTD

  1M

  3M

  12M

  Abs. Ret. -13.7% 5.7%

  Buy Dec 2018 TP (IDR) 3,930 Consensus Price (IDR) 3,728 TP to Consensus Price +5.4% vs. Last Price +25.2% Shares data

  Last Price (IDR) 3,140 Price date as of Aug 15, 2018 52 wk range (Hi/Lo) 3,920 / 2,720 Free float (%)

  43.2 Outstanding sh.(mn) 123,346 Market Cap (IDR bn) 377,438 Market Cap (USD mn) 25,771 Avg. Trd Vol - 3M (mn) 160.66 Avg. Trd Val - 3M (bn) 484.18 Foreign Ownership 24.5%

  Finance Bank Bloomberg

  Reuters BBRI.JK Raphon Prima

  raphon@nhsec.co.id

  20.2% 18.5% 18.7% 20.0%

  ROE

  2.0% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0%

  Target harga ini mengimplikasikan P/B 2018E sebesar 2,6x. Saat ini, BBRI diperdagangkan pada P/B 2018E sebesar 2,1x.

  Please consider the rating criteria & important disclaimer NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia Company Report | Aug 15, 2018 Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (BBRI) Arah yang Lebih Pasti Ke Depan Laba 2Q18: Tertekan oleh Masih Tingginya Provisi BBRI mencatatkan laba bersih sebesar Rp7,5 triliun (+10,4% y-y)—lebih rendah dari estimasi laba bersih sebesar Rp8,4 triliun. Rendahnya laba bersih dipengaruhi oleh masih tingginya beban provisi, yakni sebesar Rp5,0 triliun (vs. estimasi Rp4,2 triliun). Secara umum kinerja interest income, net interest income, operating revenue, dan pre-provisioning operating profit (PPOP) pada 2Q18 sudah sesuai estimasi kami.

  Akselerasi Pertumbuhan Penyaluran Kredit Pada 2Q18 BBRI membukukan penyaluran kredit sebesar Rp794,3 triliun.

  Angka ini melonjak 15,5% y-y, dan merupakan pertumbuhan tertinggi sejak 1Q17. Segmen small commercial mampu melanjutkan konsistensi pertumbuhan menjadi 21%. Di sisi lain, segmen SOE mampu tumbuh 24% setelah menurun pada 1Q18. Kami memperkirakan bahwa pada 2018 BBRI mampu melampaui target pertumbuhan kredit 14%.

  Ekspektasi Akselerasi Laba Bersih 2018 Kami memperkirakan bahwa BBRI mencetak laba bersih sebesar 32,4 triliun, yang tumbuh 11,7% y-y (vs. 10,7% pada 2017). Tekanan dari beban provisi akan mulai mereda, terutama pada 4Q18. Selain itu, kestabilan net interest margin pada posisi 7,7% sejak 1Q18 diperkirakan terus berlanjut.

  Siklus peningkatan saving account pada 4Q18 akan meredam tekanan kenaikan cost of deposit.

  Target Harga Rp3.930 Kami menggunakan asumsi forward P/B sebesar 2,3x (1SD di atas rata-rata 4 tahun terakhir) untuk mendapatkan target harga pada Desember 2018.

  Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk | Summary (IDR bn) 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E

  NPL

  Interest Income 94,788 102,899 113,843 130,114

  growth 10.9% 8.6% 10.6% 14.3%

  Operating Revenue 84,580 92,482 105,447 121,282 Net profit 26,196 28,997 32,976 39,022 EPS (IDR) 212 235 267 316

  EPS growth 3.1% 10.7% 13.7% 18.3%

  BVPS (IDR) 1,190 1,357 1,498 1,667 Net Interest Margin 8.0% 7.6% 7.8% 7.9% Loan/Deposits

  87.9% 87.8% 91.6% 92.4%

• 1.6% 4.1% Rel. Ret.
• 6.0% 7.1%
• 0.1% 3.1%

  BDO Unibank 10,457 53,371 6.4% 4.1% 9.5% 20.5x 1.9x 0.9% Metropolitan Bank 5,570 41,612 6.5% 3.8% 8.3% 12.7x 1.1x 1.3% Philippine Island Bank 7,779 38,084 3.2% 3.6% 10.5% 17.7x 1.7x 1.9%

  Singapore

  Philippine

  Bank of Ayudhya 8,879 64,128 7.5% 3.7% 10.7% 12.3x 1.3x 2.1%

  Bangkok Bank 11,564 94,446 6.7% 2.4% 8.9% 11.1x 1.0x 3.2% Siam Commercial 14,460 92,841

  Thailand

  CIMB 13,469 124,711 17.0% 2.4% 9.8% 11.7x 1.2x 4.2% Malayan Banking 26,085 188,433 9.5% 1.8% 10.7% 13.4x 1.5x 5.6% Hong Leong 5,053 50,939 4.3% 1.6% 10.0% 12.1x 1.2x 2.2%

  Malaysia

  DBS 46,926 387,334 11.1% 1.9% 10.3% 13.4x 1.4x 6.7% UOB 32,761 268,287 19.2% 1.8% 11.3% 11.9x 1.3x 4.2% OCBC 34,550 340,370 21.4% 1.7% 11.5% 10.9x 1.2x 3.4%

  BBRI 25,771 82,886 11.0% 7.7% 19.6% 12.3x 2.3x 3.5% BBCA 39,476 55,219 12.2% 6.1% 18.8% 23.9x 4.2x 1.1% BMRI 20,950 82,772 44.3% 5.5% 14.5% 13.1x 1.8x 3.0% BBNI 9,009 52,203 9.4% 5.5% 15.5% 9.0x 1.3x 3.6% BBTN 1,779 19,235 11.7% 4.4% 15.1% 8.2x 1.2x 2.3%

  Company Report

  Company Market Cap (USD mn) Total Asset (USD mn) Net Profit Growth ( LTM) Net Interest Margin (LTM) ROE (LTM) P/E (LTM) P/BV (LTM) Dividend Yield

  Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research

  ASEAN Banks

  Bank di Indonesia masih mampu mempertahankan NIM di atas bank ASEAN lain meskipun sedang menghadapi tekanan penurunan suku bunga acuan oleh bank sentral. Keunggulan NIM ini mampu ditranslasikan menjadi ROE yang lebih tinggi. Bank di Indonesia mampu mencetak pertumbuhan laba bersih di kisaran 10%-20% yang mampu disaingi oleh beberapa bank di Malaysia dan Singapura, seperti UOB, OCBC, CIMB dan Malayan Banking. Namun, tiga bank tersebut memiliki aset yang jauh lebih besar dibandingkan dengan aset bank di Indonesia.

  Daya Saing Perbankan Indonesia di ASEAN Industri perbankan di Indonesia menjadi prioritas investasi utama di ASEAN karena menawarkan suku bunga kredit yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan suku bunga yang ditawarkan bank lain di ASEAN. Hal ini merupakan faktor utama keunggulan industri perbankan di Indonesia.

  Sekilas tentang BBRI BBRI merupakan bank milik pemerintah Indonesia dengan aset terbesar di Indonesia. BBRI didukung oleh jaringan terluas yang menjangkau wilayah perkotaan hingga ke pelosok pedesaan terpencil. BBRI menyalurkan sekitar 15% dari total penyaluran kredit di Indonesia. Sedangkan di segmen mikro dan SME, BBRI menyalurkan sekitar 32% dari total kredit yang beredar.

  Aug 15, 2018

• 13.0% 3.2% 11.7% 11.5x 1.3x 3.9%

  Company Report

  Aug 15, 2018

  Performance Highlights Loan Yield, Cost of Deposit, Net Interest Margin (NIM) Interest Income (IDR bn)

  Source: Company, NHKS research Source: Company, NHKS research

  Outstanding Loan (IDR bn) Loan Composition

  Source: Company, NHKS research Source: Company, NHKS research

  Deposit (IDR bn) Deposit Composition

  Source: Company, NHKS research Source: Company, NHKS research

  Company Report

  Aug 15, 2018

  Multiple Valuation Forward P/B band | Last 4 years Dynamic Forward P/B band | Last 4 years

  Source: NHKS research Source: NHKS research

  Rating and target price update Target Price Revision Date Rating Target Price Last Price Consensus vs Last Price vs Consensus

  01/03/2018 Buy 4,580 (Dec 2018) 3,640 3,494 +25.8% +31.1% 02/08/2018 Buy 4,700 (Dec 2018) 3,680 3,899 +27.7% +20.6% 05/22/2018 Buy 3,510 (Dec 2018) 2,760 3,820 +27.2% 8.1%

• 08/15/2018 Buy 3,930 (Dec 2018) 3,140 3,728 +25.2% +5.4% Source: NHKS research, Bloomberg

  Analyst Coverage Rating Closing and Target Price

  Source: Bloomberg Source: NHKS research

  NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia (NHKS) stock ratings

  1. Period: End of year target price

  2. Rating system based on a stock’s absolute return from the date of publication : Greater than +15%

   Buy : -15% to +15%  Hold : Less than -15%  Sell

  Company Report

  Aug 15, 2018

  Summary of Financials

DISCLAIMER

INCOME STATEMENT BALANCE SHEET

  

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errors, omissions, misstatements, negligence, inaccuracy arising herefrom. All rights reserved by PT NH Korindo Securities Indonesia ^{BBRI Summary Last Price (IDR) 3,140}

^{Target Price (IDR) 3,930 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E}

^{Rating: Buy ROE 20.2% 18.5% 18.7% 20.0% ROA 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% 3.0% ROIC 18.4% 18.2% 18.3% 19.3% Opera ti ng ROA 9.0% 8.7% 9.0% 9.2%}

^{in IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E Pre-Provi s i on ROA 5.1% 5.1% 5.2% 5.3%}

^{Interest Income 94,788 102,899 113,843 130,114 Non-Interes t Income/Op. Rev 20.1% 21.1% 22.0% 22.2%}

^{Growth (% y/y) 10.9% 8.6% 10.6% 14.3% Cos t/Income 43.6% 41.8% 41.9% 41.9%}

^{Interes t Expens es (27,212) (29,894) (31,589) (35,795) Ca s h Di vi dend (IDR bn) 10,478 13,048 18,170 17,560}

^{Net Interest Income 67,576 73,005 82,254 94,319 Di vi dend Yi el d (%) 3.6% 2.9% 4.7% 4.5%}

^{Net Interest Margin 8.0% 7.6% 7.8% 7.9% Pa yout Ra ti o (%) 40.0% 45.0% 55.1% 45.0%}

^{Net Fee Income 9,223 10,442 12,895 14,786 Equi ty/As s ets 14.6% 14.9% 15.0% 14.6%}

^{Trading Income 205 1,020 1,910 2,190 Loa n/Depos i ts 87.9% 87.8% 91.6% 92.4%}

^{Other Operating Income 7,576 8,015 8,388 9,987 Loa n/As s ets 66.1% 65.6% 68.9% 70.3%}

^{Operating Revenue 84,580 92,482 105,447 121,282 NPL 2.0% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0%}

^{Opera ti ng Expens es (36,915) (38,681) (44,227) (50,797) Loa n Los s Res erves /Loa ns 3.4% 4.1% 3.8% 3.5%}

^{Pre-provisioning OP (PPOP) 47,664 53,801 61,221 70,485 Depos i ts /Li a bi l i ti es 88.1% 87.8% 88.6% 89.0%}

^{Provi s i on for Impa i rment (13,700) (16,995) (17,592) (19,043) CASA/Depos i ts 59.1% 59.0% 61.2% 62.9%}

^{EBT 33,974 37,022 43,710 51,630 Ti me Depos i ts /Depos i ts 40.9% 41.0% 38.8% 37.1%}

^{Income Ta x (7,746) (7,978) (10,626) (12,552) Pa r Va l ue (IDR) 250 250 250 250}

^{Non-control l i ng Interes t (32) (48) (108) (56) Tota l Sha res (mn) 123,346 123,346 123,346 123,346}

^{Net Profit 26,196 28,997 32,976 39,022 Sha re Pri ce (IDR) 2,335 3,640 3,140 3,140}

^{Growth (% y/y) 3.1% 10.7% 13.7% 18.3% Ma rket Ca p (IDR tn) 288.0 449.0 387.3 387.3}

^{in IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E}

^{Ca s h 25,212 25,212 25,212 25,212 Pri ce /Ea rni ngs 11.0x 15.5x 11.7x 9.9x}

^{Placement in Banks 144,801 119,187 118,162 138,515 Pri ce /Book Va l ue 2.0x 2.7x 2.1x 1.9x Net Loan 640,614 709,232 814,179 957,331 Pri ce/Op. Revenue 3.4x 4.9x 3.7x 3.2x}

^{Investments 136,361 208,321 187,899 214,953 PE/EPS Growth 3.5x 1.4x 0.9x 0.5x}

^{Fixed Assets 24,515 24,746 27,114 29,977 EV/Opera ti ng Revenue 3.9x 5.4x 4.1x 3.8x Other Assets 32,141 39,964 53,062 50,906 EV/PPOP 7.0x 9.4x 7.1x 6.5x Total Assets 1,003,644 1,126,248 1,228,358 1,412,370 EV (IDR bn) 333,542 503,520 436,808 454,917}

^{Depos i ts 754,526 841,656 924,217 1,073,722 Op. Revenue CAGR (3-Yr) 18.3% 15.0% 14.3% 12.8%}

^{Borrowi ng 70,349 78,739 75,511 86,366 EPS CAGR (3-Yr) 7.4% 6.2% 9.1% 14.2%}

^{Other l i a bi l i ti es 31,956 38,505 43,860 46,660 Ba s i c EPS (IDR) 212 235 267 316}

^{Total Liabilities 856,832 958,901 1,043,588 1,206,748 Di l uted EPS (IDR) 212 235 267 316}

^{Ca pi ta l Stock 6,167 6,167 6,167 6,167 BVPS (IDR) 1,190 1,357 1,498 1,667}

^{Reta i ned Ea rni ngs 125,309 143,828 163,755 184,608 Op. Revenue PS (IDR) 686 750 855 983}

^{Shareholders' Equity 146,813 167,347 184,769 205,622 DPS (IDR) 85 106 147 142}

^{in IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E}

^{Net Income 26,196 28,997 32,976 39,022 DCF (IDR bn)}

^{Deprec & Provi s i on 8,225 13,523 6,524 4,388 NOPAT 36,797 42,208 46,337 53,349}

^{Chg. In Worki ng Ca pi ta l 7,130 11,943 4,949 2,673 +Depr./Amor. 8,225 13,523 6,524 4,388}

^{CFO 29,072 30,708 61,863 28,013 -Chg. i n Loa n (82,326) (75,916) (107,238) (145,824)}

^{Net Cha nges i n Loa n (82,326) (75,916) (107,238) (145,824) -Incr. (Decr.) i n Worki ng Ca p. 7,130 11,943 4,949 2,673}

^{CFI (96,156) (112,899) (137,186) (177,457) (Unl evered) FCFF (30,174) (8,242) (49,428) (85,414)}

^{Di vi dends Pa i d (7,619) (10,478) (13,048) (18,170) WACC}

^{Net Cha nges i n Depos i t 85,531 87,130 82,561 149,505 Cos t of Debt (Ta x Adj.) 8.9% 7.1% 8.4% 8.1%}

^{CFF 92,651 79,647 41,618 142,190 Cos t of Equi ty (COE) 10.5% 11.9% 11.7% 11.4%}

^{Net Changes in Cash 25,566 (2,544) (33,705) (7,254) WACC (%) 10.2% 11.2% 11.2% 10.8%}

^{RIM Sprea d (FROE-COE) (%) 12.6% 7.8% 8.0% 9.7% Res i dua l Income (IDR bn) 14,262 11,479 13,382 17,925}

^{By Geography % Shareholders % Equi ty Cha rge 11,934 17,518 19,594 21,098}

^{Indones i a 75.5 Republ i c of Indones i a 56.8 EVA Uni ted Sta tes 12.5 Va ngua rd Group 1.5 Inves ted Ca pi ta l (IDR bn) 181,728 217,162 246,087 260,280 Luxembourg 4.3 FMR LLC 1.5 ROIC-WACC (%) 10.0% 8.2% 7.7% 9.7% Uni ted Ki ngdom 1.7 Bl a ckRock 1.5 EVA (IDR bn) 18,206 17,868 18,840 25,206}

  CASH FLOW STATEMENT DCF, RIM & EVA OWNERSHIP PROFITABILITY & STABILITY _{August 13, 2018 Dec 2018}

  ^{Analyst: Raphon Prima}