Basic Science and Facts of Climate Change Past, Present and the Future
- – Past, Present and Future
www.ifrc.org Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)
SEA Climate Change Training
Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)
SEA Climate Change Training
Basic Science and Facts of Climate Change
SEA Climate
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Key objectives of this session (in slide master)
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At the end of this activity, the participants are able to: To have the participants understand the basic
science related to climate change, evolution of the climate from the past, present conditions and what
can happen in the future and its relationship with
GHG emission and observed pattern of disasters.
www.ifrc.orgSEA Climate
Presentation title at-a-glance info
Change
(in slide master)
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”More and worse floods” ”Rains no longer normal – difficult to know when to plant”
”Our paddy fields get eaten
away by the sea” ”... so our children have to move away” www.ifrc.orgwww.ifrc.org Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)
SEA Climate Change Training
IPCC – the ‘key reference’ on climate change
Main findings
Climate change is already happening
It is mostly caused by man
It will continue
The rate of change is alarming
Extreme weather is getting more frequent
It is urgent to stop further warming
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, 2013
SEA Climate
Presentation title at-a-glance info
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Three Questions (in slide master)
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www.ifrc.org
SEA Climate
Presentation title First Question : Why is it getting warmer? at-a-glance info
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Answer: The rapid global warming of the past 100 years is caused mostly by human activity, mainly: Burning fossil fuels (e.g. coal, oil, natural gas) at unprecedented rates, sending “greenhouse gases” into the atmosphere
Widespread deforestation (trees contain a lot of carbon, and when burnt CO is released )
2 Changing agricultural and land-use practices (agriculture releases other GHGs, CH and NO )
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2 www.ifrc.org
SEA Climate
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First Question : Why is it getting warmer? (in slide master)
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Greenhouse gases are acting as a blanket around the earth www.ifrc.org
Today CO is higher than it’s been for
SEA Climate
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2 at-a-glance info
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hundreds of thousands of years
http://400.350.org/Does anyone know how many ppm of CO we have
2 in the atmosphere today?
400 ppm That’s 120 ppm higher than the max for 800,000+ yrs … and the difference between an ice age and a warm period is just 100 ppm www.ifrc.org
Second Question : Along with the GHG the earth is
SEA Climate
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getting warmer – what does that mean? (in slide master)
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Rising temperatures, heat waves Sea level rise Scientists are very sure Melting ice Ocean acidification Changing rainfall patterns Less clear, and regional differences Changes in extreme events www.ifrc.org
SEA Climate
Presentation title Scientist warnings are clear: at-a-glance info
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We should avoid more than a 2°Celsius temperature rise in the coming century.
A 2012 World Bank report summarizes the potential effects of a 4°warmer world: it’s urgent to limit GHG emissions. The more we limit GHG emissions now, the less need for adaption to a future wilder weather. www.ifrc.org
SEA Climate
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www.ifrc.org
SEA Climate
Presentation title Warming will continue, at-a-glance info
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but how much is our choice In the next few decades, temperatures will continue to rise, even if we almost completely stop emissions of GHGs today ( blue line ) This is because GHGs, especially CO
2 , stay in the atmosphere for a long time Therefore, we have further climate change “in the pipeline” because of the emissions already in the atmosphere www.ifrc.org
SEA Climate
Presentation title Warming will continue, at-a-glance info
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(in slide master)
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but how much is our choice But if, and only if, we cut the global amount of GHG emissions quickly, we may avoid escalating warming in the second half of this century (the red line ) If we act now to reduce global emissions, it is still possible to keep changes within a “manageable range” for our children www.ifrc.org
www.ifrc.org Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)
SEA Climate Change Training
When the ocean, land and air get warmer, things change in the climate system… … temperature is not all that’s changing…
SEA Climate
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Climate varia bility and change
at-a-glance infoChange
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Long term average New record highs www.ifrc.org
SEA Climate
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www.ifrc.org
SEA Climate
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www.ifrc.org
SEA Climate
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Shift in season and intensity (in slide master)
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Sumatra & Java - compared to 1961-90: Onset of the wet season is now 10 - 20 days later Onset of the dry season is now 10 - 60 days earlier
Based on Naylor et al. 2007 www.ifrc.org
SEA Climate
Presentation title Huge annual variability is normal at-a-glance info
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(in slide master)
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www.ifrc.org
- Rough regional forecasts – will not be much better
- Act on that basis
www.ifrc.org Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)
SEA Climate Change Training
Climate Change Projections
SEA Climate
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Climate Change Projections : Asia (in slide master)
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- Increased riverine, coastal and urban flooding leading to widespread damage to infrastructure, livelihoods and settlements (M)
- Increased risk of heat-related mortality (H)
- Increased risk of drought-related water and food shortage causing malnutrition (H)
7
00 , 2 C C P
I
e: rc ou www.ifrc.org S
www.ifrc.org Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)
SEA Climate Change Training
… in addition to sea level rise – what more? Some things are certain:
SEA Climate
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One thing is for sure: (in slide master)
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The future will be different from the past
Photo: NASA www.ifrc.org More certainty about climate change
SEA Climate
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More uncertainty about its manifestations
www.ifrc.orgSEA Climate
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Something’s changing – are you prepared? www.ifrc.org
Third Question : What does climate change
SEA Climate
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mean for the humanitarian sector?
Trends we have observed… Weather related disasters doubled over the past 2 decades
Increase in small- and medium-scale disasters www.ifrc.org
www.ifrc.org Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)
SEA Climate Change Training
Weather related disasters doubled over the past 2 decades Increase small- and medium-scale disasters
More surprises/uncertainties Observed Changes in Disaster Patterns
www.ifrc.org Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)
SEA Climate Change Training
SOCIOECONOMIC PROCESSES Socioeconomic Pathways
Socioeconomic Pathways Adaptation and Mitigation
Actions Adaptation and Mitigation
Actions Governance
Governance CLIMATE
Natural Variability Natural Variability
Anthropogenic Climate Change Anthropogenic Climate Change
RISK Hazards Exposure
Vulnerability
IMPACTS
IMPACTS
EMISSIONS and Land-use ChangeEMISSIONS and Land-use Change
Risks = Hazards x Vulnerability x
SEA Climate
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Exposure
The number of hazards is
increasing More people are exposed
to extreme events The vulnerability of people
and assets is increasing = Risks are increasing www.ifrc.org
www.ifrc.org Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)
SEA Climate Change Training
Changes in frequency and/or intensity of hazards Changes in geographical / seasonal extent of hazards
Climate trends (temperature, rainfall, sea level rise) impacting livelihoods etc.
Trends becoming shocks – lack of knowledge to cope IFRC A range of effects
www.ifrc.org Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)
SEA Climate Change Training
Special report on extreme events and disasters, a summary for policy makers
Key messages: Disaster risk increases (regardless of climate change)
Extreme events are more frequent and more intense, due to climate change Stronger emphasis on anticipation and risk reduction needed
Better information available
IPCC Summary for Policy makers, 2011
Potential impact: Floods
SEA Climate
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Difficult to measure the frequency and intensity of floods, but generally there has been an increasing trend
Changes in rainfall patterns and precipitation intensity could put more people at risk from flooding Photo: IFRC, Pakistan floods 2010, www.ifrc.org
www.ifrc.org Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)
SEA Climate Change Training
Potential impact: Coastal erosion, coastal flooding and salt water intrusion Photo: IFRC, Viet Nam coastal dike damages
www.ifrc.org Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)
SEA Climate Change Training
Potential impact: Drought Photo: Jacob Dall
www.ifrc.org Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)
SEA Climate Change Training
Possible Impact: Increasing Food Insecurity (Photo: Tamara Leigh/IFRC-Climate Centre)
SEA Climate
Presentation title Possible impact: Changing disease patterns at-a-glance info
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(Photo: Nancy Okwengu/IFRC-Climate Centre) www.ifrc.org
www.ifrc.org Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)
SEA Climate Change Training
Potential Impact: Melting Ice Source: NASA – UNDP
2002 1978 Source: Barnett et al. (2005)
www.ifrc.org Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)
SEA Climate Change Training
Potential Impacts: Oceanic Changes
Sea levels are rising – at a faster rate Sea level rise
NOW
SEA Climate
Presentation title Potential Impacts: Oceanic Changes at-a-glance info
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(in slide master)
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Large scale degradation and/or
... and fish stocks loss of coastal and marine decline, eroding ecosystems livelihoods for the oceans are becoming more acidic
millions of sea surface temperatures are increasing
people Ocean acidification damages coral reefs – reducing their coastal protection effects www.ifrc.org
Potential Impact: Tropical Cyclones Impacts
SEA Climate
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(in slide master)
Possibly an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclone activity (hurricanes/typhoons), coupled with higher storm surges due to sea level rise
economic/human losses are expected to increase
IFRC Source: NOAA www.ifrc.org
SEA Climate
Presentation title Climate Change Fingerprint in at-a-glance info
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Complex Crises
- increased demand
- failed harvests
- less land for agriculture (a.o. urbanisation)
- biofuels
Climate change
- distorted markets (ban on exports)
related
- price speculations
www.ifrc.org
SEA Climate
Presentation title Humanitarian Concern at-a-glance info
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(in slide master)
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- Will vulnerable people worldwide have a voice
in geo-engineering decisions?
- Will there be extra funding for humanitarian
work in a geo-engineered future?
www.ifrc.orgSEA Climate
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Key Messages (in slide master)
Training
Climate Change is already happening and will continue
to affect us especially the most vulnerable groups
Rate of change is alarming and mostly caused by men CC brings another layer of risk
R = Hazard x Vulnerability x Exposure
We already see a lot of observed changes in disaster
patterns Urgent action is a must
We need to make choices under periods of uncertainty
www.ifrc.org www.ifrc.org Saving lives, changing minds.
www.ifrc.org Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)
SEA Climate Change Training
From IFRC President Konoe
issued at the release of the IPCC AR5 WGIIThis is the strong confirmation that risks have been rising in recent decades
The second message emerging from the report is more positive – Immense capacities exist to addressing risks – capacities that can be even more effective when applied with greater awareness and investment ahead of potential problems
The third message of the report is about our choices for the future – Past greenhouse gas emissions have already committed us to rising risks for several decades to come. This report shows that we can largely handle those now-inevitable changes. For the second half of the century, however, we face a bigger choice – one that needs to be made now.
www.ifrc.org Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)
SEA Climate Change Training
Further information
ipcc.ch
climatecentre.org
ifrc.org Thank you!