S KOM 1104729 Table of content
DAFTAR ISI
PERNYATAAN ........................................................................................................ i
KATA PENGANTAR .............................................................................................. ii
UCAPAN TERIMA KASIH .................................................................................. iii
ABSTRAK .............................................................................................................. v
ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................... vi
DAFTAR ISI ......................................................................................................... vii
DAFTAR TABEL................................................................................................... xi
DAFTAR GAMBAR ........................................................................................... xiii
BAB I ...................................................................................................................... 1
PENDAHULUAN .................................................................................................. 1
1.1
Latar Belakang ......................................................................................... 1
1.2
Rumusan Masalah .................................................................................... 3
1.3
Batasan Masalah ....................................................................................... 4
1.4
Tujuan Penelitian ...................................................................................... 4
1.5
Manfaat Penelitian .................................................................................... 5
1.6
Sistematika Penulisan ............................................................................... 5
BAB II ..................................................................................................................... 7
TINJAUAN PUSTAKA .......................................................................................... 7
2.1
Forecasting ............................................................................................... 7
2.1.1
Definisi Forecasting .......................................................................... 7
2.1.2
Tujuan Forecasting ............................................................................ 8
2.1.3
Tahap-tahap Forecasting ................................................................... 9
2.1.4
Jenis Forecasting ............................................................................. 10
[Type text]
2
2.2
Kesalahan Peramalan ............................................................................. 12
2.3
Metode Smoothing ................................................................................. 14
2.4
Metode Double Exponential Smoothing ................................................ 15
2.5
Metode Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) ............................................. 16
BAB III ................................................................................................................. 22
METODOLOGI PENELITIAN ............................................................................ 22
3.1
Desain Penelitian .................................................................................... 22
3.2
Metode Penelitian ................................................................................... 25
3.2.1
Metode Pengumpulan Data ............................................................. 25
3.2.2
Metode Pengembangan Perangkat Lunak ....................................... 25
3.3
Alat dan Bahan Penelitian ...................................................................... 27
3.3.1
Alat Penelitian ................................................................................. 27
3.3.2
Bahan Penelitian.............................................................................. 28
BAB IV ................................................................................................................. 29
HASIL PENELITIAN DAN PEMBAHASAN..................................................... 29
4.1
Uji Kecenderungan Pola Data History Uji Coba.................................... 29
4.2
Uji Coba Model Peramalan .................................................................... 32
4.2.1
Uji Coba Dengan Inisialisasi Data 1 Tahun .................................... 32
4.2.2
Uji Coba Dengan Inisialisasi Data 2 Tahun .................................... 42
4.2.3
Uji Coba Dengan Inisialisasi Data 3 Tahun .................................... 52
4.3
Penentuan Nilai α ................................................................................... 64
4.4
Peramalan Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing
(Brown) ............................................................................................................. 65
4.4.1
Peramalan Jumlah Penjualan Greentea Dengan α=0.3 ................... 65
4.4.2
Peramalan Jumlah Penjualan Choco Caramel Dengan α=0.4 ......... 67
4.4.3
Peramalan Jumlah Penjualan Taro Dengan α=0.2 .......................... 69
4.4.4
Peramalan Jumlah Penjualan Thaitea Dengan α=0.4 ...................... 71
Farhan Maulana, 2016
SISTEM PERAMALAN INVENTORY DENGAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAN
ECONOMIC ORDER QUANTITY (EOQ)
Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia | repository.upi.edu | perpustakaan.upi.edu
3
4.4.5
4.5
Peramalan Jumlah Penjualan Vanilla Dengan α=0.3 ...................... 73
Pengendalian Persediaan Menggunakan Metode EOQ (Economic Order
Quantity) ........................................................................................................... 76
4.5.1
Analisis Pengendaliaan Persediaan Greentea Tahun 2016 ............. 77
4.5.2
Analisis Pengendalian Persediaan Choco Caramel Tahun 2016 .... 80
4.5.3
Analisis Pengendalian Persediaan Taro Tahun 2016 ...................... 82
4.5.4
Analisis Pengendalian Persediaan Thaitea Tahun 2016 ................. 84
4.5.5
Analisis Pengendalian Persediaan Vanilla Tahun 2016 .................. 87
4.6
Pengendalian Persediaan Menurut Perusahaan ...................................... 90
4.7
Perhitungan Nilai Aktual dengan Hasil Peramalan ............................ 91
4.8
Perhitungan Penghitungan metode EOQ dengan Perusahaan ............ 92
4.9
Pengembangan Perangkat Lunak ........................................................ 93
4.9.1
Deskripsi Sistem ............................................................................. 93
4.9.2
Batasan Perangkat Lunak ................................................................ 93
4.9.3
Analisis Kebutuhan Sistem ............................................................. 94
4.9.4
Analisis Pengguna ........................................................................... 94
4.9.5
Proses Operasional Perangkat Lunak .............................................. 95
4.9.6
Perancangan .................................................................................... 95
4.9.7
Desain Basis Data ........................................................................... 96
4.10
Implementasi ....................................................................................... 96
4.10.1
Implementasi Modul Program......................................................... 97
4.10.2
Implementasi Antarmuka ................................................................ 98
4.11
Pengujian Sistem............................................................................... 104
BAB V ................................................................................................................. 106
KESIMPULAN DAN SARAN ........................................................................... 106
5.1
Kesimpulan ........................................................................................... 106
5.2
Saran ..................................................................................................... 107
DAFTAR PUSTAKA .......................................................................................... 108
LAMPIRAN .........................................................................................................110
Farhan Maulana, 2016
SISTEM PERAMALAN INVENTORY DENGAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAN
ECONOMIC ORDER QUANTITY (EOQ)
Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia | repository.upi.edu | perpustakaan.upi.edu
4
Lampiran 1. Laporan Penjualan Produk...........................................................110
Lampiran 2. Perbandingan Nilai Aktual dengan Nilai Ramalan ......................117
RIWAYAT HIDUP .............................................................................................. 120
Farhan Maulana, 2016
SISTEM PERAMALAN INVENTORY DENGAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAN
ECONOMIC ORDER QUANTITY (EOQ)
Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia | repository.upi.edu | perpustakaan.upi.edu
PERNYATAAN ........................................................................................................ i
KATA PENGANTAR .............................................................................................. ii
UCAPAN TERIMA KASIH .................................................................................. iii
ABSTRAK .............................................................................................................. v
ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................... vi
DAFTAR ISI ......................................................................................................... vii
DAFTAR TABEL................................................................................................... xi
DAFTAR GAMBAR ........................................................................................... xiii
BAB I ...................................................................................................................... 1
PENDAHULUAN .................................................................................................. 1
1.1
Latar Belakang ......................................................................................... 1
1.2
Rumusan Masalah .................................................................................... 3
1.3
Batasan Masalah ....................................................................................... 4
1.4
Tujuan Penelitian ...................................................................................... 4
1.5
Manfaat Penelitian .................................................................................... 5
1.6
Sistematika Penulisan ............................................................................... 5
BAB II ..................................................................................................................... 7
TINJAUAN PUSTAKA .......................................................................................... 7
2.1
Forecasting ............................................................................................... 7
2.1.1
Definisi Forecasting .......................................................................... 7
2.1.2
Tujuan Forecasting ............................................................................ 8
2.1.3
Tahap-tahap Forecasting ................................................................... 9
2.1.4
Jenis Forecasting ............................................................................. 10
[Type text]
2
2.2
Kesalahan Peramalan ............................................................................. 12
2.3
Metode Smoothing ................................................................................. 14
2.4
Metode Double Exponential Smoothing ................................................ 15
2.5
Metode Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) ............................................. 16
BAB III ................................................................................................................. 22
METODOLOGI PENELITIAN ............................................................................ 22
3.1
Desain Penelitian .................................................................................... 22
3.2
Metode Penelitian ................................................................................... 25
3.2.1
Metode Pengumpulan Data ............................................................. 25
3.2.2
Metode Pengembangan Perangkat Lunak ....................................... 25
3.3
Alat dan Bahan Penelitian ...................................................................... 27
3.3.1
Alat Penelitian ................................................................................. 27
3.3.2
Bahan Penelitian.............................................................................. 28
BAB IV ................................................................................................................. 29
HASIL PENELITIAN DAN PEMBAHASAN..................................................... 29
4.1
Uji Kecenderungan Pola Data History Uji Coba.................................... 29
4.2
Uji Coba Model Peramalan .................................................................... 32
4.2.1
Uji Coba Dengan Inisialisasi Data 1 Tahun .................................... 32
4.2.2
Uji Coba Dengan Inisialisasi Data 2 Tahun .................................... 42
4.2.3
Uji Coba Dengan Inisialisasi Data 3 Tahun .................................... 52
4.3
Penentuan Nilai α ................................................................................... 64
4.4
Peramalan Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing
(Brown) ............................................................................................................. 65
4.4.1
Peramalan Jumlah Penjualan Greentea Dengan α=0.3 ................... 65
4.4.2
Peramalan Jumlah Penjualan Choco Caramel Dengan α=0.4 ......... 67
4.4.3
Peramalan Jumlah Penjualan Taro Dengan α=0.2 .......................... 69
4.4.4
Peramalan Jumlah Penjualan Thaitea Dengan α=0.4 ...................... 71
Farhan Maulana, 2016
SISTEM PERAMALAN INVENTORY DENGAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAN
ECONOMIC ORDER QUANTITY (EOQ)
Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia | repository.upi.edu | perpustakaan.upi.edu
3
4.4.5
4.5
Peramalan Jumlah Penjualan Vanilla Dengan α=0.3 ...................... 73
Pengendalian Persediaan Menggunakan Metode EOQ (Economic Order
Quantity) ........................................................................................................... 76
4.5.1
Analisis Pengendaliaan Persediaan Greentea Tahun 2016 ............. 77
4.5.2
Analisis Pengendalian Persediaan Choco Caramel Tahun 2016 .... 80
4.5.3
Analisis Pengendalian Persediaan Taro Tahun 2016 ...................... 82
4.5.4
Analisis Pengendalian Persediaan Thaitea Tahun 2016 ................. 84
4.5.5
Analisis Pengendalian Persediaan Vanilla Tahun 2016 .................. 87
4.6
Pengendalian Persediaan Menurut Perusahaan ...................................... 90
4.7
Perhitungan Nilai Aktual dengan Hasil Peramalan ............................ 91
4.8
Perhitungan Penghitungan metode EOQ dengan Perusahaan ............ 92
4.9
Pengembangan Perangkat Lunak ........................................................ 93
4.9.1
Deskripsi Sistem ............................................................................. 93
4.9.2
Batasan Perangkat Lunak ................................................................ 93
4.9.3
Analisis Kebutuhan Sistem ............................................................. 94
4.9.4
Analisis Pengguna ........................................................................... 94
4.9.5
Proses Operasional Perangkat Lunak .............................................. 95
4.9.6
Perancangan .................................................................................... 95
4.9.7
Desain Basis Data ........................................................................... 96
4.10
Implementasi ....................................................................................... 96
4.10.1
Implementasi Modul Program......................................................... 97
4.10.2
Implementasi Antarmuka ................................................................ 98
4.11
Pengujian Sistem............................................................................... 104
BAB V ................................................................................................................. 106
KESIMPULAN DAN SARAN ........................................................................... 106
5.1
Kesimpulan ........................................................................................... 106
5.2
Saran ..................................................................................................... 107
DAFTAR PUSTAKA .......................................................................................... 108
LAMPIRAN .........................................................................................................110
Farhan Maulana, 2016
SISTEM PERAMALAN INVENTORY DENGAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAN
ECONOMIC ORDER QUANTITY (EOQ)
Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia | repository.upi.edu | perpustakaan.upi.edu
4
Lampiran 1. Laporan Penjualan Produk...........................................................110
Lampiran 2. Perbandingan Nilai Aktual dengan Nilai Ramalan ......................117
RIWAYAT HIDUP .............................................................................................. 120
Farhan Maulana, 2016
SISTEM PERAMALAN INVENTORY DENGAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAN
ECONOMIC ORDER QUANTITY (EOQ)
Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia | repository.upi.edu | perpustakaan.upi.edu