Analisis kelayakan penambahan mesin guna peningkatan kapasitas produksi di PT. Tri Ratna Diesel Indonesi Driyorejo Gresik - Widya Mandala Catholic University Surabaya Repository
LAMPIRAN
LAMPIRAN 1. Forecast dengan Metode Winters' Multiplicative
Winters'Multiplicative
Modelfor C1
760
'
Actual
.
Predicted
.
Forecast
-Actual
- - - Predic.ted
Forecast
I oeo
SmoothingConstants
Alpha(level): 0.660
Gamma(trend): 0.040
Delta(season):0.020
MAPE:
MAD:
MSD:
560
0
10
20
30
Time
40
1.496
9.821
293.746
lfo rksh e et s iz e:
100 0 0 0 c e l l s
Retrieving rorksheet fron file:
C : \,|TBWIN\DATA\Skri DSi ,tntw
Worksheet was saved on 9,/ 6/200I
l'{acro is
runn i ng
please Fait
Winters'multiplicativemodel
Da ta
Length
NMi ssi n g
C1
35.0000
0
Snoothiag Constants
( lewel ) :
o.66
(trend ) :
0.04
D e l t a ( € c a s o n a l) : 0 . 0 2
Alpha
G"'ima
Accuracy Measures
M APE: 1 . 496
I'IAD:
9.821
X SD: 2 9 3. 745
Row
Tine
11
c1
JJ
539
644
652
44
Aqq
b5
560
667
672
682
z2
65
77
88
99
10
11
10
11
13
14
15
13
14
15
ro
lt'
17
18
19
2
0
'r1
t7
18
19
20
1Z
Zl
z3
zJ
'l)
o:tl
1)
)1
24
24
aJ
ll
598
712
62A
637
642
652
655
659
667
673
b6a
69L
694
7L4
630
663
674
10
la
27
2g
29
30
27
28
29
30
?1
?1
32
32
649
558
663
67L
JJ
JJ
bb5
34
34
Jf,
Jf,
678
670
36
36
DO)
Row Period
I
)
J
4
5
6
7
37
38
39
4B
4l
42
43
o/o
ot I
Snooth
P re d i c t
6 3 7 . 7 6 A 6 3 9 .6 7 4
642.413 644.3rL
6 4 0 .4 3 3 o . r a . J L z
4q? q10
655.070
6 5 1. 2 5 s 6 6 3 .3 9 7
6 6 8 . 0 4 0 6 7 0 . L t4
570.630 672.630
6 8 2 .7 7 3 6 4 4 . 7 8 7
oof,. trz /
687.475
6 9 5 .7 4 3 5 9 7 .8 0 2
676.955 678.958
673.988 676.753
5 5 4. 4 7 t 6 5 5. 9 7 1
640.818 641.813
6 4 5 . 1 3 6 646 . L4t
646.369 o.rr.Jzl
6s7.626 658.988
664.904 666.277
6 7 3 . 6 9 9 6 7 5. 1 8 7
61A.JZ/
5 7 7. 5 8 4
5 9 1. 2 Q 7 6 9 2 . 7 0 t
694,234 595.688
7 9 3. L 9 6 7 0 4 . 7 ? 5
6 A 9 . 7 0 2 6 9 t .4 2 3
6 2 5 .4 9 0 6 2 5 . 5 8 5
660.469 661.569
oo/.lb:,
668.591
orrb.u/u
678.505
6 6 9- 7 9 2 5 7L . Z L 3
6 6 1. 7 0 2 o o z . J . t l
6 6 5 .4 6 2 5 6 5. 1 8 9
6 7 0 .9 8 2 6 7| . 6 3 2
b/J.u59
6 74 . 4 9 4
6 7 8 .6 6 9 6 7 9 .s 5 9
6 8 0 .9 9 2 5 8 1. 3 5 6
b/5.btttt
679.753
For€cast
649. 2 9 6
624. 3 0 7
633.614
630.811
6 3 3. 5 9 u
5 2 9. 5 5 1
634. 3 9 7
Loxer
525.235
594.626
597.800
5 8 8. 5 7 4
584.754
5 74 . tg z
s72.459
Error
- D . 6 74 4
-0.3109
9.6883
-t.9704
-3.3974
-3 . 1138
_U. bJUI
-2.7868
3.5249
0. 1983
33.0420
- 4 8, 7 5 2 7
- L 8 . 9 70 7
o . r8 72
5. tt5uY
7 . 4 7 75
o.0124
o.7227
-2. -tub5
4.3161
-1.7007
2.3115
9 . 2 74 9
- 6 L. 4 2 2 5
3 7. 4 L 4 7
t2 . 4 3 1 2
7.4088
-7 .5846
- L1. Z !tD
-4.5425
-J.IUUY
-0 .6316
-9 .4945
-1.0594
-11.3559
- L 4. 7 5 2 9
Upper
ot J. Jal
653.987
6 6 9 .4 2 8
673.048
6 8 2 .4 2 6
6 8 5 .1 9 9
696.735
q
10
1l
L2
44
45
46
47
48
639.787
5 4 5. 1 3 5
648.307
658.L72
560.335
570.606
5 7 0. 0 7 1
555.330
558.261
553.470
708.958
722. L99
7 3 t.2 8 3
748.083
7 5 7 . r9 9
LAMPIRAN 2. ForecastdenganMetodeDecomposition
Decomposition
Fitfor C1
Actual
Predicled
Forecast
Actual
Predicted
Forecast
MAPE:
MAD:
MSD:
Time
1.410
9.378
162.882
W or k s hee t s i z e :
1 0 0 0 0 0 c e l Is
Retrieving norkshe€t fron file:
C: \'{TEi?IN\DATA\Skri psi .ntw
Worksheet ras saved on 9/ 6/20Ol
Macro is running
please
ndi t
Time SeriesDecomposition
Data
Lengt h
NM is s ing
Cl
3 6 .0 0 0 0
0
In d i c e s
Seasonal
In d e x
Period
0.968933
0 . 9 8r 4 5 9
0.991589
0. 991546
0.979995
0.992886
1. 0 0 6 1 5
1, 0 1 8 6 5
1.03037
1.03953
1.05170
o ,9 3 7 1 9 4
1
5
5
b
7
at
9
10
l1
L2
Accuracy of l'{odel
MAPE:
MAD:
M S D:
Row
i
2
3
1.410
9.378
1 6 2 .4 8 2
Cl
Trend
539 666.7s
644 666.75
bJZ
bbb.
4
5
6
7
B
9
10
11
655
660
667
677
682
591
698
712
666.75
665.75
655.75
566.75
666.75
666.75
666.75
666.75
/5
Ll
bzo
bbb.
13
t4
63 7 6 6 6 .7 5
642 666.75
rf,
bf,l
bbb.
16
L7
18
19
2B
zr
655
659
667
673
68 2
59 t
666.75
566.75
556.75
666.75
6 6 6 .7 5
6 6 6 .7 5
bbb, /5
/ !
/f,
zz
b9t,
23
24
25
26
714 666.75
630 666.75
663 566.75
674 666.75
tr
ttto
28
29
30
31
67 1 6 6 6 .7 5
64 9 6 6 6 .7 5
55 8 5 5 6 .7 5
663 665.75
ooD. /f,
5l
btL
Dbtr./J
33
665
665.75
SeasonaI
0.96893
0.98145
0.99159
0.99155
0.98000
o.99289
1.00515
1.01865
]' 03037
1. 0 3 9 5 3
1. 0 6 1 7 0
0 .93719
0.96893
0.98146
0.99159
0.99155
0.98000
0.99289
1.00515
1.01855
1.03037
1.03953
1. 0 6 1 7 0
0.93719
0.96893
0.98146
0.99159
0.99155
0.98000
o .9 9 2 8 9
1.00615
1.01855
1.03037
Detrend
0.95838
0.95588
o.977AA
0.98238
0.98988
1.U0037
L.OO787
r.92287
1.03637
L .04687
| . 8 6 78 7
0.94188
U. Yf f Jd
0.96288
o .97788
0.98238
u.98838
1.00037
1.00937
L .O2287
1.03537
1.04587
1.07087
0.94488
o.99438
1.01087
1.01387
1.00637
0.97338
0.98688
0.99438
1.00537
0.99738
D eseason
659.488
5 5 6. 1 6 6
6 5 7. 5 3 1
650.58s
673.472
671.779
567.494
5 6 9. 5 1 3
6 70 . 6 3 1
67L.457
670.674
570.086
657. 424
6 5 4. 1 2 8
6 5 7. 5 3 1
660.585
otl-4>l
67t.779
668.888
559.513
6 7 0. 6 3 1
6 7t . 4 5 7
572.508
672.220
684.25A
646 .733
68t.734
676.72t
652.248
662.714
558.949
5 5 8 .7 1 4
545.398
ModeI
Error
-7.0351
545.036
654.387 - 1 0 . 3 8 7 5
-9 . L4L7
6 6 L. L 4 2
551.113
653 .4L7
6.5878
662.OO7
4 .9937
6 70 . 4 4 9
1.1513
6 7 9 .1 8 5
2.8L46
6 8 7. 0 0 1
4.89?4
593 . rO7
7 07 .8A 7
4 . 1128
3. LZbZ
6 2 4. 8 7 4
646.036 -9.0351
654,387 - 1 2. 3 8 7 5
-9 . t477
56L . r42
-6.1130
ob -t. rlJ
f,.Jtl/tj
6 5 3. 4 t 2
4.9932
66?.007
674.849
2.1513
679.L45
2.8t45
3.9991
6 8 7. 0 0 1
6 9 3 .1 0 7
4.8934
797.487
6 . rLzS
5 2 4. 4 74
5.L262
646.035
15.9639
654.387
1 9. 5 1 2 5
561 . r42
14.8583
aibl-_tlJ
9.8870
-4 .4122
553.412
562.9O7 -2t.0058
-7 .A 487
670.849
-8.rs54
6 7 9 .1 8 s
5 8 7. 0 0 1 - 2 2 . O O 8 9
34
35
36
678
670
655
656.75
6 6 6 .7 5
665.75
1.03953 1.01687 652.218 593.rO7
1 . 0 5 1 7 0 L . D O 4 B 7 6 3 1 . 0 5 5 7 0 7. 8 8 7
o.93719 0.99738 709.565 624.874
Forecasts
Row P e ri o d
I
JI
4
38
39
40
J
6
7
I
9
10
l1
L2
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
Forecast
646.035
6 5 4 .3 8 7
66L . L42
5 6 1 .1 1 3
6 5 3. 4 1 2
662.OO7
6 7 8 .4 4 9
679.L85
6 8 7. 0 0 1
5 9 3. l O 7
7 0 7 .8 8 7
6 2 4. 8 74
-IJ.IUt]T]
-37 .8872
40 . 1262
LAMPIRAN 3. TabelWaktu KerusakanMesinBubut dan CNC
U
z
z
O
F
p
p
z
V)
E
z
U)
D
X
=
F
B
J
F
LAMPIRAN
4.
Anggaran Biaya Overhead dan Biaya perawatan/Bulan
Untuk Mesin Bubut dan CNC
ANGGARANBIAYAOVERHEAD/
BUI-,AN
MESINBUBUTDANMESINCNC
NO
I
KOMPONEN
BIAYA
ANGGARAN(Rp)
Biaya persediaan
a. Sukucadang
b. Tools
c. Cooler
Total
275.000.00
tl
Biayaupah tenaga keria pengawasan(supervising)
150.000.00
ill
gleyalistrik
a. Mesinbubut
b. MesinCNC
c. Lampupenerangan
Total
IV
BiayakesejahteraaQ
lperator
Biayaasuransikecel4kaankerja
Total biayaoverhead
100,000.00
100,000.00
75.000.0 0
125.000.00
125.000.00
100.000.00
350,000.00
75.000.00
100.000.00
950,000.00
BIAYAPERAWATAN/BULAN
MESINBUBUTDANMESINCNC
NO
KOMPONENBIAYA
a
I
Olimesin
z
O l i p e l u ma s
2
Bankaret
4
Stamoede
Total
ANGGARAN(Rp)
125,000.00
75,000.00
50.000.00
30.000.00
280,000.00
LAMPIRAN
5.
Tabel GolonganTarif Penyusutan
'tabel
Golongan Tarif penyusu:an
l{cbcL rn:j., br.!tu, tursi laror:i d:.. !ou:
trt'u,!r
LAMPIRAN 1. Forecast dengan Metode Winters' Multiplicative
Winters'Multiplicative
Modelfor C1
760
'
Actual
.
Predicted
.
Forecast
-Actual
- - - Predic.ted
Forecast
I oeo
SmoothingConstants
Alpha(level): 0.660
Gamma(trend): 0.040
Delta(season):0.020
MAPE:
MAD:
MSD:
560
0
10
20
30
Time
40
1.496
9.821
293.746
lfo rksh e et s iz e:
100 0 0 0 c e l l s
Retrieving rorksheet fron file:
C : \,|TBWIN\DATA\Skri DSi ,tntw
Worksheet was saved on 9,/ 6/200I
l'{acro is
runn i ng
please Fait
Winters'multiplicativemodel
Da ta
Length
NMi ssi n g
C1
35.0000
0
Snoothiag Constants
( lewel ) :
o.66
(trend ) :
0.04
D e l t a ( € c a s o n a l) : 0 . 0 2
Alpha
G"'ima
Accuracy Measures
M APE: 1 . 496
I'IAD:
9.821
X SD: 2 9 3. 745
Row
Tine
11
c1
JJ
539
644
652
44
Aqq
b5
560
667
672
682
z2
65
77
88
99
10
11
10
11
13
14
15
13
14
15
ro
lt'
17
18
19
2
0
'r1
t7
18
19
20
1Z
Zl
z3
zJ
'l)
o:tl
1)
)1
24
24
aJ
ll
598
712
62A
637
642
652
655
659
667
673
b6a
69L
694
7L4
630
663
674
10
la
27
2g
29
30
27
28
29
30
?1
?1
32
32
649
558
663
67L
JJ
JJ
bb5
34
34
Jf,
Jf,
678
670
36
36
DO)
Row Period
I
)
J
4
5
6
7
37
38
39
4B
4l
42
43
o/o
ot I
Snooth
P re d i c t
6 3 7 . 7 6 A 6 3 9 .6 7 4
642.413 644.3rL
6 4 0 .4 3 3 o . r a . J L z
4q? q10
655.070
6 5 1. 2 5 s 6 6 3 .3 9 7
6 6 8 . 0 4 0 6 7 0 . L t4
570.630 672.630
6 8 2 .7 7 3 6 4 4 . 7 8 7
oof,. trz /
687.475
6 9 5 .7 4 3 5 9 7 .8 0 2
676.955 678.958
673.988 676.753
5 5 4. 4 7 t 6 5 5. 9 7 1
640.818 641.813
6 4 5 . 1 3 6 646 . L4t
646.369 o.rr.Jzl
6s7.626 658.988
664.904 666.277
6 7 3 . 6 9 9 6 7 5. 1 8 7
61A.JZ/
5 7 7. 5 8 4
5 9 1. 2 Q 7 6 9 2 . 7 0 t
694,234 595.688
7 9 3. L 9 6 7 0 4 . 7 ? 5
6 A 9 . 7 0 2 6 9 t .4 2 3
6 2 5 .4 9 0 6 2 5 . 5 8 5
660.469 661.569
oo/.lb:,
668.591
orrb.u/u
678.505
6 6 9- 7 9 2 5 7L . Z L 3
6 6 1. 7 0 2 o o z . J . t l
6 6 5 .4 6 2 5 6 5. 1 8 9
6 7 0 .9 8 2 6 7| . 6 3 2
b/J.u59
6 74 . 4 9 4
6 7 8 .6 6 9 6 7 9 .s 5 9
6 8 0 .9 9 2 5 8 1. 3 5 6
b/5.btttt
679.753
For€cast
649. 2 9 6
624. 3 0 7
633.614
630.811
6 3 3. 5 9 u
5 2 9. 5 5 1
634. 3 9 7
Loxer
525.235
594.626
597.800
5 8 8. 5 7 4
584.754
5 74 . tg z
s72.459
Error
- D . 6 74 4
-0.3109
9.6883
-t.9704
-3.3974
-3 . 1138
_U. bJUI
-2.7868
3.5249
0. 1983
33.0420
- 4 8, 7 5 2 7
- L 8 . 9 70 7
o . r8 72
5. tt5uY
7 . 4 7 75
o.0124
o.7227
-2. -tub5
4.3161
-1.7007
2.3115
9 . 2 74 9
- 6 L. 4 2 2 5
3 7. 4 L 4 7
t2 . 4 3 1 2
7.4088
-7 .5846
- L1. Z !tD
-4.5425
-J.IUUY
-0 .6316
-9 .4945
-1.0594
-11.3559
- L 4. 7 5 2 9
Upper
ot J. Jal
653.987
6 6 9 .4 2 8
673.048
6 8 2 .4 2 6
6 8 5 .1 9 9
696.735
q
10
1l
L2
44
45
46
47
48
639.787
5 4 5. 1 3 5
648.307
658.L72
560.335
570.606
5 7 0. 0 7 1
555.330
558.261
553.470
708.958
722. L99
7 3 t.2 8 3
748.083
7 5 7 . r9 9
LAMPIRAN 2. ForecastdenganMetodeDecomposition
Decomposition
Fitfor C1
Actual
Predicled
Forecast
Actual
Predicted
Forecast
MAPE:
MAD:
MSD:
Time
1.410
9.378
162.882
W or k s hee t s i z e :
1 0 0 0 0 0 c e l Is
Retrieving norkshe€t fron file:
C: \'{TEi?IN\DATA\Skri psi .ntw
Worksheet ras saved on 9/ 6/20Ol
Macro is running
please
ndi t
Time SeriesDecomposition
Data
Lengt h
NM is s ing
Cl
3 6 .0 0 0 0
0
In d i c e s
Seasonal
In d e x
Period
0.968933
0 . 9 8r 4 5 9
0.991589
0. 991546
0.979995
0.992886
1. 0 0 6 1 5
1, 0 1 8 6 5
1.03037
1.03953
1.05170
o ,9 3 7 1 9 4
1
5
5
b
7
at
9
10
l1
L2
Accuracy of l'{odel
MAPE:
MAD:
M S D:
Row
i
2
3
1.410
9.378
1 6 2 .4 8 2
Cl
Trend
539 666.7s
644 666.75
bJZ
bbb.
4
5
6
7
B
9
10
11
655
660
667
677
682
591
698
712
666.75
665.75
655.75
566.75
666.75
666.75
666.75
666.75
/5
Ll
bzo
bbb.
13
t4
63 7 6 6 6 .7 5
642 666.75
rf,
bf,l
bbb.
16
L7
18
19
2B
zr
655
659
667
673
68 2
59 t
666.75
566.75
556.75
666.75
6 6 6 .7 5
6 6 6 .7 5
bbb, /5
/ !
/f,
zz
b9t,
23
24
25
26
714 666.75
630 666.75
663 566.75
674 666.75
tr
ttto
28
29
30
31
67 1 6 6 6 .7 5
64 9 6 6 6 .7 5
55 8 5 5 6 .7 5
663 665.75
ooD. /f,
5l
btL
Dbtr./J
33
665
665.75
SeasonaI
0.96893
0.98145
0.99159
0.99155
0.98000
o.99289
1.00515
1.01865
]' 03037
1. 0 3 9 5 3
1. 0 6 1 7 0
0 .93719
0.96893
0.98146
0.99159
0.99155
0.98000
0.99289
1.00515
1.01855
1.03037
1.03953
1. 0 6 1 7 0
0.93719
0.96893
0.98146
0.99159
0.99155
0.98000
o .9 9 2 8 9
1.00615
1.01855
1.03037
Detrend
0.95838
0.95588
o.977AA
0.98238
0.98988
1.U0037
L.OO787
r.92287
1.03637
L .04687
| . 8 6 78 7
0.94188
U. Yf f Jd
0.96288
o .97788
0.98238
u.98838
1.00037
1.00937
L .O2287
1.03537
1.04587
1.07087
0.94488
o.99438
1.01087
1.01387
1.00637
0.97338
0.98688
0.99438
1.00537
0.99738
D eseason
659.488
5 5 6. 1 6 6
6 5 7. 5 3 1
650.58s
673.472
671.779
567.494
5 6 9. 5 1 3
6 70 . 6 3 1
67L.457
670.674
570.086
657. 424
6 5 4. 1 2 8
6 5 7. 5 3 1
660.585
otl-4>l
67t.779
668.888
559.513
6 7 0. 6 3 1
6 7t . 4 5 7
572.508
672.220
684.25A
646 .733
68t.734
676.72t
652.248
662.714
558.949
5 5 8 .7 1 4
545.398
ModeI
Error
-7.0351
545.036
654.387 - 1 0 . 3 8 7 5
-9 . L4L7
6 6 L. L 4 2
551.113
653 .4L7
6.5878
662.OO7
4 .9937
6 70 . 4 4 9
1.1513
6 7 9 .1 8 5
2.8L46
6 8 7. 0 0 1
4.89?4
593 . rO7
7 07 .8A 7
4 . 1128
3. LZbZ
6 2 4. 8 7 4
646.036 -9.0351
654,387 - 1 2. 3 8 7 5
-9 . t477
56L . r42
-6.1130
ob -t. rlJ
f,.Jtl/tj
6 5 3. 4 t 2
4.9932
66?.007
674.849
2.1513
679.L45
2.8t45
3.9991
6 8 7. 0 0 1
6 9 3 .1 0 7
4.8934
797.487
6 . rLzS
5 2 4. 4 74
5.L262
646.035
15.9639
654.387
1 9. 5 1 2 5
561 . r42
14.8583
aibl-_tlJ
9.8870
-4 .4122
553.412
562.9O7 -2t.0058
-7 .A 487
670.849
-8.rs54
6 7 9 .1 8 s
5 8 7. 0 0 1 - 2 2 . O O 8 9
34
35
36
678
670
655
656.75
6 6 6 .7 5
665.75
1.03953 1.01687 652.218 593.rO7
1 . 0 5 1 7 0 L . D O 4 B 7 6 3 1 . 0 5 5 7 0 7. 8 8 7
o.93719 0.99738 709.565 624.874
Forecasts
Row P e ri o d
I
JI
4
38
39
40
J
6
7
I
9
10
l1
L2
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
Forecast
646.035
6 5 4 .3 8 7
66L . L42
5 6 1 .1 1 3
6 5 3. 4 1 2
662.OO7
6 7 8 .4 4 9
679.L85
6 8 7. 0 0 1
5 9 3. l O 7
7 0 7 .8 8 7
6 2 4. 8 74
-IJ.IUt]T]
-37 .8872
40 . 1262
LAMPIRAN 3. TabelWaktu KerusakanMesinBubut dan CNC
U
z
z
O
F
p
p
z
V)
E
z
U)
D
X
=
F
B
J
F
LAMPIRAN
4.
Anggaran Biaya Overhead dan Biaya perawatan/Bulan
Untuk Mesin Bubut dan CNC
ANGGARANBIAYAOVERHEAD/
BUI-,AN
MESINBUBUTDANMESINCNC
NO
I
KOMPONEN
BIAYA
ANGGARAN(Rp)
Biaya persediaan
a. Sukucadang
b. Tools
c. Cooler
Total
275.000.00
tl
Biayaupah tenaga keria pengawasan(supervising)
150.000.00
ill
gleyalistrik
a. Mesinbubut
b. MesinCNC
c. Lampupenerangan
Total
IV
BiayakesejahteraaQ
lperator
Biayaasuransikecel4kaankerja
Total biayaoverhead
100,000.00
100,000.00
75.000.0 0
125.000.00
125.000.00
100.000.00
350,000.00
75.000.00
100.000.00
950,000.00
BIAYAPERAWATAN/BULAN
MESINBUBUTDANMESINCNC
NO
KOMPONENBIAYA
a
I
Olimesin
z
O l i p e l u ma s
2
Bankaret
4
Stamoede
Total
ANGGARAN(Rp)
125,000.00
75,000.00
50.000.00
30.000.00
280,000.00
LAMPIRAN
5.
Tabel GolonganTarif Penyusutan
'tabel
Golongan Tarif penyusu:an
l{cbcL rn:j., br.!tu, tursi laror:i d:.. !ou:
trt'u,!r