NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia
- 13.8%
Net Profit Margin
Net Revenues growth 4.7% 18.1% 9.9% 9.3%
EBITDA 2,567 3,175 3,477 3,770 Net profit 1,671 1,873 2,104 2,332 EPS (IDR)
35 39 44 44
EPS growth 32.4% 12.1% 12.3% 10.8%
BVPS (IDR) 229 266 312 361 EBITDA margin
53.0% 55.5% 55.3% 54.9%
34.5% 32.8% 33.5% 33.9%
2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E
ROE
16.3% 15.7% 15.1% 14.4%
ROA
8.5% 8.5% 8.6% 8.9%
ROIC 15.0% 15.8% 15.4% 15.4% P/E 16.3x 17.6x 11.4x 11.4x P/BV 2.5x 2.6x 1.6x 1.4x EV/EBITDA 12.6x 11.8x 7.9x 7.1x DPS (IDR)
4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
Net Revenues 4,841 5,718 6,284 6,869
Target Harga Rp625 Kami menggunakan estimasi discount to RNAV sebesar 61,7% (rata-rata 3 tahun terakhir) sebagai basis metode valuasi. Saat ini, saham PWON diperdagangkan dengan discount to RNAV 2018F sebesar 68,8%.
- 62 21 797 6202, ext:114 [email protected]
Pakuwon Jati Tbk | Summary (IDR bn) Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, NHKS Research
Please consider the rating criteria & important disclaimer Company Report | May 24, 2018 Pakuwon Jati Tbk (PWON) Ketahanan Ditopang Konsistensi Pendapatan Berulang Buy Dec 2018 TP (IDR) 625 Consensus Price (IDR) 725 TP to Consensus Price
vs. Last Price +26.0% Shares data
Last Price (IDR) 496 Price date as of May 23, 2018 52 wk range (Hi/Lo) 715 / 496 Free float 30.2% Outstanding sh.(mn) 48,160 Market Cap (IDR bn) 23,887 Market Cap (USD mn) 1,681 Avg. Trd Vol - 3M (mn)
23.84 Avg. Trd Val - 3M (bn)
14.13 Foreign Ownership 13.5%
Property Real Estate Owner & Developer Bloomberg PWON.IJ Reuters PWON.JK Michael Tjahjadi
Share Price Performance YTD
1Q16. Jika melihat tren pendapatan berulang yang konsisten naik pada setiap kuartalnya, kontribusi segmen ini terus akan lebih besar ke depannya. Hal ini membuat kinerja PWON lebih tahan dan stabil menghadapi kondisi industri properti yang masih belum pulih.
1M
3M
12M
Abs. Ret. -27.6% -20.6% -24.3% -22.5% Rel. Ret. -18.7% -12.5% -11.8% -23.6%
Peningkatan Kontribusi Pendapatan dari Surabaya PWON mencatatkan pendapatan bersih dan laba bersih masing-masing sebesar Rp1,65 triliun (+19,5% y-y) dan Rp563 miliar (+61,8% y-y) pada
1Q18. Kinerja penjualan tanah dan bangunan (sale of land and buildings) tercatat naik menjadi Rp281 miliar (+74,2% y-y). Margin laba bersih PWON juga tercatat naik menjadi 34,2% dari 25,2% pada 1Q17. Meskipun demikian, marketing sales PWON tercatat turun menjadi Rp605 miliar (- 7,3% y-y). Secara geografis, pendapatan dari Surabaya naik menjadi Rp981 miliar (+58,5% y-y), yang ditopang oleh proyek Pakuwon Mall dan Pakuwon City. Namun kami memperkirakan bahwa kontribusi dari Jakarta akan meningkat seiring dengan pembangunan proyek kondominium di Kota Kasablanka Phase 2 yang hampir selesai.
Konsistensi Kinerja Segmen Pendapatan Berulang Pada 1Q18, PWON berhasil mencatatkan pendapatan berulang tertinggi sebesar Rp828 miliar (+22,5% y-y). Adapun, kontribusi segmen ini juga mencapai 50,3% yang meningkat dari 49,1% pada 1Q17 dan 49,5% dari
Dividend yield 0.8% 0.7% 0.9% 0.9%
Sekilas tentang PWON PWON adalah salah satu perusahaan pengembang properti yang berfokus pada segmen pusat perbelanjaan, kondominium, perkantoran maupun kombinasi ketiganya (superblok). Proyek-proyek yang digarap PWON tersebar di dua kota metropolitan terbesar di Indonesia, dengan rasio pendapatan 40,4% (Jakarta) dan 59,6% (Surabaya).
Proyek-proyek tersebut berada di lokasi yang strategis dan mengincar segmen menengah-atas. Dengan portfolio beberapa superblok seperti Kota Kasablanka, Gandaria City di Jakarta dan Tunjungan City, Pakuwon Mall di Surabaya; PWON berhasil menyeimbangkan rasio pendapatan berulang dan pendapatan dari penjualan properti. Selain tengah menggarap
Persediaan tanah : landbank
beberapa proyek baru, PWON juga masih memiliki persediaan tanah di area superblok untuk rencana ekspansi mendatang. Dalam beberapa tahun terakhir, PWON juga
Pendapatan dari penjualan properti :
berkespansi ke segmen kota mandiri melalui proyek Pakuwon City dan Grand Pakuwon di
development revenue Surabaya. Segmen perumahan: self contained city
Industri Pengembang Properti Indonesia di ASEAN Indonesia merupakan negara terluas yang memiliki persediaan tanah dan jumlah penduduk terbanyak di ASEAN. Hal tersebut menjadikan Indonesia sebagai lokasi yang baik bagi bisnis pengembang properti. Pengembang properti Indonesia memiliki persediaan tanah yang lebih besar daripada pengembang di negara ASEAN. Seperti BKSL, mempunyai persediaan lahan 14.666 hektar dan BSDE 3.966 hektar.
Sektor properti di Indonesia dan Filipina menjadi yang paling bersaing di antara negara ASEAN. Pengembang-pengembang properti di negara tersebut mencatatkan gross margin yang lebih baik walaupun mempunyai total aset yang lebih rendah dari negara- negara lainnya.
ASEAN Real Estate Developer Market Cap Total Asset Sales Gross Operating Net Profit Dividend Company ROE P/E (USD mn) (USD mn) Growth Margin Margin Growth Yield
BSDE 2,140 3,382 56.71% 73.4% 48.9% 173.9% 21.4% 6.2x 0.3% CTRA 1,175 2,333 -4.40% 47% 25.2% -23.2% 6.1% 20.7x 0.5% PWON 1,681 1,719 18.10% 59% 48.9% 41.5% 21.0% 11.4x 0.9% SMRA 822 1,594 4.50% 46% 23.8% -6.5% 5.2% 35.0x 0.6%
Singapore
Capitaland Ltd 11,006 45,972 12.23% 40% 47% 8.7% 8.1% 10.1x 3.4%
- Malaysia
- SP Setia Bhd 3,109 6,826 20.86% 33% 22% 13.6% 7.5% 14.8x 4.8%
IOI Properties Group Bhd 2,173 7,823 38.36% 44% 32% 12.2% 4.8% 10.3x 3.8%
- Thailand
Land & Houses PUB Co Ltd 4,135 3,362 16.76% 34% 30% 32.9% 21.6% 11.9x 6.8% WHA Corp Ltd 1,965 2,260 46.72% 47% 39% 38.7% 14.0% 19.8x 3.2%
- Philippines
Megaworld Corp 2,910 6,212 8.65% 62% 41% 12.6% 9.4% 11.6x 1.1% Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research
Operational Performance Quarterly Revenue (IDR bn) | 1Q15 - 1Q18 Quarterly Marketing Sales (IDR bn) | 1Q15 - 1Q18
Source: Company, Bloomberg, NHKS research Source: Company, NHKS research
Margin Ratios | 1Q17 - 1Q18 Revenue Breakdown | 1Q18
Source: Company, Bloomberg, NHKS research Source: Company, Bloomberg, NHKS research
Land Bank Portofolio | 1Q18 Land Bank Location Area (ha)
Kota Kasablanka South Jakarta
6.5 Gandaria City South Jakarta
1.9 Simatupang South Jakarta
4.5 Daan Mogot West Jakarta
11.0 Bekasi Greater Jakarta
3.6 Tunjungan City Central Surabaya
3.2 Pakuwon City Township East Surabaya 212.6 Outside Pakuwon City East Surabaya
21.5 Grand Pakuwon Towship West Surabaya 162.9 Pakuwon Mall West Surabaya
3.9 Royal Plaza West Surabaya
1.8 Outside Grand Pakuwon West Surabaya
6.9 Total Area 439.3 Source: Company
Multiple Valuation Forward P/E band | Last 3 years Discount to NAV band | Last 3 years
Source: NHKS research Source: NHKS research
Rating and target price Date Rating Target Price Last Price Consensus vs Last Price vs Consensus
03/28/2018 Buy 700 605 734 +15.7% 4.6%
- 05/23/2018 Buy 625 496 725 +26.0% 13.8%
- Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research
Closing and Target Price Analyst Coverage Rating
Source: Bloomberg Source: NHKS research
NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia (NHKS) stock ratings
1. Period: End of year target price
2. Rating system based on a stock’s absolute return from the date of publication : Greater than +15%
Buy : -15% to +15% Hold : Less than -15% Sell
Summary of Financials
DISCLAIMER
INCOME STATEMENT BALANCE SHEET
This report and any electronic access hereto are restricted and intended only for the clients and related entity of PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia. This
report is only for information and recipient use. It is not reproduced, copied, or made available for others. Under no circumstances is it considered as a selling
offer or solicitation of securities buying. Any recommendation contained herein may not suitable for all investors. Although the information here is obtained
from reliable sources, it accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies, respective employees,
and agents disclaim any responsibility and liability for claims, proceedings, action, losses, expenses, damages, or costs filed against or suffered by any person
as a result of acting pursuant to the contents hereof. Neither is PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies, employees, nor agents liable for
errors, omissions, misstatements, negligence, inaccuracy arising herefrom. All rights reserved by PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia PWON Summary Last Price (IDR) 496Target Price (IDR) 625 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E
Rating: Buy ROE 16.3% 15.7% 15.1% 14.4% ROA 8.5% 8.5% 8.6% 8.9% ROIC 15.0% 15.8% 15.4% 15.4% EBITDA/Equi ty 25.1% 26.7% 25.0% 23.3%In IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E EBITDA/As s ets 13.0% 14.4% 14.2% 14.4%
Net Revenue 4,841 5,718 6,284 6,869 Ca s h Di vi dend (IDR bn) 217 217 217 217Growth (% y/y) 4.7% 18.1% 9.9% 9.3% Di vi dend Yi el d (%) 0.8% 0.7% 0.9% 0.9%
Cos t of Revenues (2,088) (2,353) (2,623) (2,876) Pa yout Ra ti o (%) 13% 12% 10% 9%
Gross Profit 2,754 3,364 3,661 3,992 DER 48% 42% 36% 26%
Gross Margin 56.9% 58.8% 58.3% 58.1% Net Gea ri ng 63% 54% 46% 32%
Opera ti ng Expens es (525) (569) (618) (670) LT Debt to Equi ty 41% 39% 31% 22%
EBIT 2,228 2,795 3,044 3,322 Ca pi ta l i za ti on Ra ti o 32% 30% 26% 21%
EBIT Margin 46.0% 48.9% 48.4% 48.4% Equi ty Ra ti o 53% 55% 59% 65%
Depreci a ti on 339 380 434 448 Debt Ra ti o 25% 23% 21% 17%
EBITDA 2,567 3,175 3,477 3,770 Fi na nci a l Levera ge 193% 185% 176% 161%
EBITDA Margin 53.0% 55.5% 55.3% 54.9% Current Ra ti o 133% 172% 191% 213%
Interes t Expens es (202) (294) (277) (276) Qui ck Ra ti o 57% 78% 100% 106%
EBT 1,732 2,072 2,390 2,582 Ca s h Ra ti o 53% 69% 91% 97%
Income Ta x 48 (47) (55) (52) Ca s h Convers i on Cycl e 428.3 487.5 507.0 497.2 Mi nori ty Interes t (109) (152) (232) (199) Pa r Va l ue (IDR) 25 25 25Growth (% y/y) 32.4% 12.1% 12.3% 10.8% Sha re Pri ce (IDR) 565 685 496 496
25 Net Profit 1,671 1,873 2,104 2,332 Tota l Sha res (mn) 48,160 48,160 48,160 48,160 Net Profit Margin 34.5% 32.8% 33.5% 33.9% Ma rket Ca p (IDR tn) 27.2 33.0 23.9 23.9 In IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12ECa s h 2,432 3,406 4,739 4,659 Pri ce /Ea rni ngs 16.3x 17.6x 11.4x 11.4x
Recei va bl es 186 448 445 424 Pri ce /Book Va l ue 2.5x 2.6x 1.6x 1.4x
Inventori es 2,860 3,741 3,904 4,323 Pri ce/Revenue 5.6x 5.8x 3.8x 3.5x
Total Current Assets 6,127 8,428 9,925 10,256 PE/EPS Growth 0.5x 1.5x 0.9x 1.0x
Net Fi xed As s ets 12,164 12,461 12,993 13,469 EV/EBITDA 12.6x 11.8x 7.9x 7.1x
Other Non Current As s ets 2,383 2,470 2,671 2,873 EV/EBIT 14.5x 13.4x 9.0x 8.1x
Total Assets 20,674 23,359 25,589 26,599 EV (IDR bn) 32,354 37,483 27,392 26,783
Pa ya bl es 212 364 369 385 Revenue CAGR (3-Yr) 16.9% 13.9% 10.8% 12.4%
ST Debt 769 402 696 718 EPS CAGR (3-Yr) 13.8% -9.4% 18.6% 11.8%
Other Current Li a b. 3,637 4,147 4,142 3,713 Ba s i c EPS (IDR) 35 39 44 44 LT Debt 4,471 5,026 4,718 3,769 Di l uted EPS (IDR) 35 39 44 44 Other Non Current Li a b. 566 628 626 624 BVPS (IDR) 229 266 312 361Total Liabilities 9,654 10,567 10,551 9,208 Revenue PS (IDR) 101 119 130 143
Shareholders' Equity 11,020 12,791 15,038 17,391 DPS (IDR) 5 5 5 5 In IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E Net Income 1,671 1,873 2,104 2,332 DCF (IDR bn)Deprec & Amorti za ti on 339 380 434 448 NOPAT 2,291 2,731 2,974 3,256
Chg. In Worki ng Ca pi ta l - - (39) (825) +Depr./Amor. 339 380 434 448
CFO 2,010 2,252 2,499 1,955 -CAPEX (272) (146) (920) (924)
Ca pex (272) (146) (920) (924) -Incr. (Decr.) i n Worki ng Ca p. - - (39) (825)
CFI (1,141) (507) (1,215) (1,128) (Unl evered) FCFF 2,358 2,965 2,449 1,954
Di vi dends Pa i d (229) (216) (217) (217) WACCNet Borrowi ng (PMT) 395 2,781 (69) (927) Cos t of Debt (Ta x Adj.) 12.7% 9.9% 11.7% 11.1%
CFF 165 (119) (3) (907) Cos t of Equi ty (COE) 10.5% 11.0% 11.6% 9.2%Net Changes in Cash 1,034 1,627 1,281 (80) WACC (%) 10.8% 10.8% 11.6% 9.5%
RIM Sprea d (FROE-COE) (%) 7.2% 6.0% 4.9% 6.3% Res i dua l Income (IDR bn) 681 665 626 950By Geography % Shareholders % Equi ty Cha rge (IDR bn) 990 1,207 1,478 1,382
Indones i a 86.5 PT Pa kuwon A 69.7 EVA Uni ted Sta tes 6.9 Va ngua rd Group 1.9 Inves ted Ca pi ta l (IDR bn) 14,363 16,260 18,219 20,452 Luxembourg 2.2 Bl a ckrock 1.2 ROIC-WACC (%) 5.1% 6.0% 4.7% 6.4% Uni ted Ki ngdom 1.2 TT Interna ti ona l Funds 0.8 EVA (IDR bn) 737 975 864 1,314CASH FLOW STATEMENT DCF, RIM & EVA OWNERSHIP PROFITABILITY & STABILITY May 23, 2018 Dec 2018 Analyst: Michael Tjahjadi