NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia
- 18.5% vs. Last Price +18.8%
Konsistensi Peningkatan Lokal Konten Secara tahunan, peningkatan kinerja top line juga didorong oleh pertumbuhan pendapatan konten dan pendapatan iklan non-RCTI yang masing-masing sebesar 46,5% dan 10,4%. Melalui MNC Pictures, konten lokal di stasiun-stasiun TV MNCN juga telah mencapai 90% pada 2017.
Dividend yield 2.5% 3.5% 3.9% 0.0%
44 45 51 54
P/E 17.3x 11.5x 11.0x 10.3x P/BV 2.5x 1.7x 1.6x 1.5x EV/EBITDA 10.5x 6.7x 6.4x 5.9x DPS (IDR)
12.1% 12.9% 13.9% 14.0%
ROIC
9.5% 9.9% 10.0% 10.2%
BVPS (IDR) 704 751 799 865 EBITDA margin 39.1% 43.9% 45.3% 46.2% Net Profit Margin 20.3% 20.6% 20.9% 21.3% ROE 14.4% 15.1% 15.2% 15.3% ROA
EPS growth 19.8% 9.7% 6.1% 7.7%
EBITDA 2,631 3,097 3,349 3,590 Net profit 1,369 1,453 1,541 1,660 EPS (IDR) 102 111 118 127
Revenue growth 4.4% 4.8% 4.8% 5.2%
Revenue 6,730 7,053 7,390 7,777
2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E
Target Harga Rp1.550 Kami menetapkan target harga sebesar Rp1.550 dengan estimasi forward P/E sebesar 12,3x (1 SD di bawah rata-rata 2 tahun). Target harga ini mengimplikasikan P/E 2018/E sebesar 13,1x. Saat ini, MNCN diperdagangkan pada P/E 2018/E sebesar 11,0x.
Hal ini membuat bisnis MNCN lebih terdiversifikasi dengan tidak hanya mengandalkan pendapatan iklan. Kondisi ini memampukan MNCN mempertahankan kinerja meskipun stasiun-stasiunnya tidak mendapatkan hak siar acara-acara khusus, seperti Piala Dunia dan Asian Games.
Selain pertumbuhan pendapatan, kinerja margin MNCN juga meningkat signifikan pada 2017. Efisiensi pada segmen program dan konten berhasil menaikkan gross margin sebesar 5% y-y. Namun, beban umum dan administrasi yang naik 12,7% y-y menekan kinerja bottom line sehingga net margin dan laba bersih masing-masing hanya tumbuh 0,3% y-y dan 6,2% y-y.
Peningkatan Kinerja pada Akhir 2017 MNCN menutup 2017 dengan mencatatkan pendapatan sebesar Rp7,05 triliun (+4,8% y-y). Pertumbuhan pendapatan tersebut didorong oleh kinerja 4Q17 yang mencatatkan pendapatan sebesar Rp1,67 triliun (+14% y-y).
Shares data
Last Price (IDR) 1,305 Price date as of May 03, 2018 52 wk range (Hi/Lo) 2,020 / 1,230 Free float 40.8% Outstanding sh.(mn) 14,276 Market Cap (IDR bn) 18,630 Market Cap (USD mn) 1,335 Avg. Trd Vol - 3M (mn)
14.4 Avg. Trd Val - 3M (bn)
21.0 Foreign Ownership 16.2%
Trade, Services & Investment Media, Television Bloomberg
MNCN.IJ
Reuters MNCN.JK Michael Tjahjadi
- 62 21 797 6202, ext:114
Media Nusantara Citra Tbk | Summary (IDR bn) Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, NHKS Research
Share Price Performance YTD
1M
3M
12M
Abs. Ret. 1.6% -10.6% -18.2% -29.8% Rel. Ret. 9.4% -4.7% -6.6% -33.6%
Please consider the rating criteria & important disclaimer NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia Company Report | May 04, 2018 Media Nusantara Citra Tbk (MNCN) Mengoptimalkan Produksi Konten Internal Buy Dec 2018 TP (IDR) 1,550 Consensus Price (IDR) 1,902 TP to Consensus Price
michael@nhsec.co.id Hubei Broadcasting 990 1,454 5.05% 46.1% 12.7% N/A 5.9% 18.4x 0.8%
China
MNCN 1,335 1,108 4.79% 62.1% 37.8% 43.9% 16.3% 12.0x 3.2%
TV18 Broadcast Ltd 1,572 1,040 50.62% N/A
India
27
ABS-CBN Corp 458 1,503 -2.24% 39.4% 10.1% 23.6% 10.4% 6.8x 3.3% GMA Network Inc 362 296 -7.97% 58.1% 23.0% 27.3% 20.9% 10.7x 9.0% Manila Broadcasting 140
Philippines
MCOT PCL 219 214 -2.61%
BEC World PCL 645 440
Thailand
Astro Malaysia Hold- 2,432 1,756
Malaysia
VIVA 352 569 3.32% N/A 25.4% 52.7% 7.0% 32.4x N/A
SCMA 2,410 396
Company Market Cap (USD mn) Total Asset (USD mn) Sales Growth Gross Margin Operating Margin EBITDA Margin ROE P/E Dividend Yield
- 10.03% 17% 2% 35.3% 0.9% 316.2x 1.0%
Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research
Asia Pacific Media Firms
Selain jumlah penduduk, biaya produksi dan beban usaha yang relatif murah juga membuat perusahaan media di Indonesia memiliki rasio margin yang lebih baik dibandingkan negara-negara berkembang di Asia Pasifik lainnya.
Industri Media Indonesia di negara berkembang Asia Pasifik Indonesia merupakan salah satu tempat yang menguntungkan bagi perkembangan bisnis media, khususnya media televisi. Jumlah penduduknya yang besar membuat para pegiat industri fast moving consumer goods, rokok dan e-commerce memanfaatkan media televisi sebagai sarana utama program pemasaran. Namun, tren pergeseran sarana marketing ke media digital juga perlu diwaspadai.
Sekilas tentang MNCN MNCN merupakan salah satu perusahaan media dengan portofolio stasiun TV free-to-air terbanyak di Indonesia. Empat stasiun TV free-to-air milik MNCN adalah RCTI, MNCTV, GTV yang fokus pada konten entertainment dan iNews dengan konten berita dan olahraga. Selain itu, MNCN juga memiliki 20 stasiun TV berlangganan. Untuk mendukung bisnis intinya, MNCN memiliki segmen bisnis radio, media cetak, produksi konten, content library dan talent management.
May 04, 2018
Company Report
- 1.55% 58.8% 39.8% 44.2% 36.3% 25.3x 2.5%
- 1.46% 41% 20.6% 40.0% 120.7% 12.4x 6.5%
- 75%
- 104%
- 64.9%
- 48.0% N/A N/A
- 14.82% 40.2% 21.2% 24.6% 18.2% 57.0x 1.7%
- 0.8% 3.9% 0.3% 1223.0x N/A
Company Report
May 04, 2018
Operational Performance Quarterly Revenue (IDR bn)| 1Q15 - 4Q17 Quarterly Net Profit (IDR bn)| 1Q15 - 4Q17
Source: Company, NHKS research Source: Company, NHKS research
Margin Ratios | 2013 - 2017 Program and Content Expenses (IDR bn)| 1Q15 - 4Q17
Source: Company, NHKS research Source: Company, NHKS research
All Time Audience Share by Group| Jan ‘17 - Apr ‘18 Prime Time Audience Share by Group| Jan ’17 - Apr ‘18
Source: Nielsen Source: Nielsen
Company Report
May 04, 2018
Multiple Valuation Forward P/E band | Last 2 years Dynamic Forward P/E band | Last 2 years
Source: NHKS research Source: NHKS research
Rating and target price Date Rating Target Price Last Price Consensus vs Last Price vs Consensus
05/03/2018 Buy 1,550 1,305 1,902 +18.8% 18.5%
- Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research
Analyst Coverage Rating Closing and Target Price
Source: Bloomberg Source: NHKS research
NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia (NHKS) stock ratings
1. Period: End of year target price
2. Rating system based on a stock’s absolute return from the date of publication : Greater than +15%
Buy : -15% to +15% Hold : Less than -15% Sell
Company Report
May 04, 2018
Summary of Financials
DISCLAIMER
INCOME STATEMENT BALANCE SHEET
This report and any electronic access hereto are restricted and intended only for the clients and related entity of PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia. This
report is only for information and recipient use. It is not reproduced, copied, or made available for others. Under no circumstances is it considered as a selling
offer or solicitation of securities buying. Any recommendation contained herein may not suitable for all investors. Although the information here is obtained
from reliable sources, it accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies, respective employees,
and agents disclaim any responsibility and liability for claims, proceedings, action, losses, expenses, damages, or costs filed against or suffered by any person
as a result of acting pursuant to the contents hereof. Neither is PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies, employees, nor agents liable for
errors, omissions, misstatements, negligence, inaccuracy arising herefrom. All rights reserved by PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia MNCN Summary Last Price (IDR) 1,305Target Price (IDR) 1,550 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E
Rating: Buy ROE 14.4% 15.1% 15.2% 15.3% ROA 9.5% 9.9% 10.0% 10.2% ROIC 12.1% 12.9% 13.9% 14.0% EBITDA/Equity 27.6% 32.1% 33.1% 33.1%In IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E EBITDA/Assets 18.3% 21.1% 21.7% 22.1%
Revenue 6,730 7,053 7,390 7,777 Cash Dividend (IDR bn) 587 587 662 700
Growth (% y/y) 4.4% 4.8% 4.8% 5.2% Dividend Yield (%) 2.5% 3.5% 3.9% 0.0%
Direct cost (2,875) (2,670) (2,701) (2,740) Payout Ratio (%) 48.8% 42.9% 45.8% 45.4%
Gross Profit 3,856 4,382 4,689 5,037 DER 39.9% 39.0% 38.0% 35.5%
Gross Margin 57.3% 62.1% 63.5% 64.8% Net Gearing 91.8% 92.6% 96.1% 97.2%
Operating Expenses (1,524) (1,716) (1,863) (2,027) LT Debt to Equity 3.4% 35.7% 34.8% 32.5%
EBIT 2,332 2,666 2,827 3,009 Capitalization Ratio 28.5% 28.0% 27.5% 26.2%
EBIT Margin 34.6% 37.8% 38.2% 38.7% Equity Ratio 66.6% 65.1% 66.1% 67.5%
Depreciation 299 432 523 581 Debt Ratio 26.6% 25.4% 25.1% 24.0%
EBITDA 2,631 3,097 3,349 3,590 Financial Leverage 150.7% 151.9% 152.5% 149.7%
EBITDA Margin 39.1% 43.9% 45.3% 46.2% Current Ratio 158.1% 460.4% 490.3% 505.2%
Interest Expense (194) (260) (277) (279) Quick Ratio 111.6% 298.7% 308.4% 310.6%
EBT 2,153 2,416 2,476 2,649 Cash Ratio 11.9% 32.1% 38.9% 42.2%Income Tax (670) (848) (820) (877) Par Value (IDR) 100 100 100 100
Minority Interest (114) (114) (115) (112) Total Shares (mn) 13,479 13,047 13,047 13,047
Net Profit 1,369 1,453 1,541 1,660 Share Price (IDR) 1,755 1,285 1,305 1,305
Growth (% y/y) 15.4% 6.2% 6.1% 7.7% Market Cap (IDR tn) 23.7 16.8 17.0 17.0 Net Profit Margin 20.3% 20.6% 20.9% 21.3%In IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E
Cash 499 469 556 617 Price /Earnings 17.3x 11.5x 11.0x 10.3x
Receivables 3,054 3,026 3,048 3,131 Price /Book Value 2.5x 1.7x 1.6x 1.5x
Inventories 1,950 2,359 2,601 2,844 Price/Revenue 3.5x 2.4x 2.3x 2.2x
Total Current Assets 6,638 6,718 7,014 7,385 PE/EPS Growth 0.9x 1.2x 1.8x 1.3x
Net Fixed Assets 4,824 5,307 5,790 6,264 EV/EBITDA 10.5x 6.7x 6.4x 5.9x
Financial assets 1,148 975 1,060 1,061 EV/EBIT 11.8x 7.8x 7.5x 7.1x
Other Non Current Assets 810 1,435 1,197 1,260 EV (IDR bn) 27,614 20,890 21,275 21,330
Total Assets 14,240 15,057 15,780 16,724 Revenue CAGR (3-Yr) 1.1% 1.9% 4.7% 4.9%
Payables 435 740 713 727 EPS CAGR (3-Yr) -5.4% -3.7% 11.7% 7.8%
ST debt 56 143 158 160 Basic EPS (IDR) 102 111 118 127Current maturities LT debt 3,409 177 180 182 Diluted EPS (IDR) 102 111 118 127
Total Current Liabilities 4,199 1,459 1,431 1,462 BVPS (IDR) 704 751 799 865
LT Debt 324 3,498 3,622 3,665 Revenue PS (IDR) 499 541 566 596
Other Non Current Liab. 230 299 303 307 DPS (IDR) 43.6 45.0 50.8 53.6 Total Liabilities 4,753 5,256 5,356 5,434 Shareholders' Equity 9,487 9,801 10,424 11,290In IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E
Net Income 1,369 1,453 1,541 1,660 DCF (IDR bn) Deprec & Amortization 271 458 523 581 NOPAT 1,606 1,730 1,891 2,013 Chg. In Working Capital 325 287 (255) (283) +Depr./Amor. 271 458 523 581 CFO 1,965 2,198 1,809 1,957 -CAPEX (1,011) (943) (988) (1,027) Capex (1,011) (943) (988) (1,027) -Incr. (Decr.) in Working Cap. 325 287 (255) (283) CFI (196) (727) (946) (1,150) (Unlevered) FCFF 1,192 1,532 1,170 1,284 Dividends Paid (587) (587) (662) (700) WACC Net Borrowing (9) 29 143 47 Cost of Debt (Tax Adj.) 6.7% 6.2% 7.5% 7.5% CFF (1,660) (1,531) (776) (747) Cost of Equity (COE) 10.3% 10.8% 10.5% 10.8% Net Changes in Cash 109 (59) 8760 WACC (%)
9.8% 9.9% 9.9% 10.2%RIM
Spread (FROE-COE) (%) 4.0% 4.6% 5.2% 5.1% Residual Income (IDR) 387 432 514 531 By Geography % Shareholders % Equity Charge 981 1,021 1,027 1,128 Indonesia 83.8 Global Mediacom Tbk 59.2 EVA United States 10.5 FMR LLC 2.5 Invested Capital (IDR bn) 13,364 13,276 13,619 14,385 Canada 1.1 Blackrock 1.3 ROIC-WACC (%) 2.3% 3.1% 4.0% 3.8% Hong Kong 1.0 Vanguard Group1.2 EVA (IDR bn)
302 414 539 546CASH FLOW STATEMENT DCF, RIM & EVA OWNERSHIP PROFITABILITY & STABILITY May 3, 2018 Dec 2018 Analyst: Michael Tjahjadi