Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk (RALS)
- 62 21 797 6202, ext:114 [email protected]
12.3% 11.9% 12.0% 13.2%
EBITDA 555 561 573 647 Net profit 409 407 432 502 EPS (IDR)
61
61
64
75 EPS growth 24.5%
BVPS (IDR) 496 520 548 585 EBITDA margin 9.5% 10.0% 10.0% 10.6% Net Profit Margin 7.0% 7.2% 7.5% 8.3% ROE
ROA
Net sales 5,857 5,623 5,736 6,077
8.9% 8.5% 8.7% 9.5%
ROIC
9.7% 9.6% 9.3% 10.9%
P/E 19.6x 19.8x 20.4x 17.6x P/BV 2.4x 2.3x 2.4x 2.2x EV/EBITDA 13.4x 13.0x 14.3x 12.2x DPS (IDR)
36
36
38
Net sales growth 5.9%
2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E
- -
4.0% 2.0% 6.0%
- -
0.5% 6.1% 16.2%
Share Price Performance YTD
Please consider the rating criteria & important disclaimer Company Report | Apr 04, 2018 Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk (RALS) Masih Dibayangi oleh Tantangan Hold Dec 2018 TP (IDR) 1,450 Consensus Price (IDR) 1,338 TP to Consensus Price +8.4% vs. Last Price +10.7% Shares data
Last Price (IDR) 1,310 Price date as of Apr 02, 2018 52 wk range (Hi/Lo) 1,500 / 860 Free float 35.0% Outstanding sh.(mn) 7,096 Market Cap (IDR bn) 9,154 Market Cap (USD mn) 665 Avg. Trd Vol - 3M (mn)
8.7 Avg. Trd Val - 3M (bn)
10.5 Foreign Ownership 25.1%
Trade, Services & Investment Retail Bloomberg RALS.IJ Reuters RALS.JK Michael Tjahjadi
Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk | Summary (IDR bn)
Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, NHKS Research
1M
Target Harga Rp1.450 Kami menggunakan estimasi forward P/E sebesar 19,6x (1SD di atas rata- rata 3 tahun terakhir) sebagai basis metode valuasi. Target harga ini mengimplikasikan P/E 2018E sebesar 22,6x (vs 21,6x saat ini).
3M
12M
Abs. Ret. 9.2% 3.6% 18.6% 16.4% Rel. Ret. 11.0% 8.7% 20.1% 5.1% 800 950 1,100 1,250 1,400 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 RALS IJ Equity JCI Rebased
Berhasil Menjaga Margin hingga Akhir 2017 RALS membukukan penurunan penjualan bersih dan laba bersih masing- masing sebesar 4,0% y-y dan 0,5% y-y. Namun, margin berhasil tumbuh tipis dibandingkan pada 2016. Usaha RALS untuk menjaga margin laba kotor di kisaran 40% hingga 4Q17 pun terbantu oleh kebijakan pemerintah yang mengunci tarif listrik dan harga BBM bersubsidi hingga 2019.
Selain itu, langkah RALS pada 2017 untuk menutup belasan gerai supermarket akhirnya dapat membalikan posisi rugi segmen tersebut selama 3 tahun terakhir. Ke depan, RALS akan lebih meningkatkan porsi barang konsinyasi yang terus mencatatkan pertumbuhan penjualan selama 3 tahun terakhir.
Tantangan di Tengah Pulihnya Daya Beli Mengamati kesuksesan panen pertanian pada 2018, kebijakan pemerintah yang kondusif, dan kenaikan inflasi inti pada Maret 2018, kami memprediksi bahwa daya beli masyarakat, terutama kelas menengah- bawah akan cenderung pulih.
Namun sejauh ini, membaiknya daya beli konsumen belum berhasil memacu pertumbuhan penjualan pada 3Q17 dan 4Q17. Belum lagi, untuk menghadapi tantangan pergeseran tren belanja masyarakat, RALS masih harus mengubah konsep beberapa gerai lama menjadi Ramayana Prime di tengah ketatnya kompetisi dengan pusat perbelanjaan konvensional.
45 Dividend yield 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 3.4%
Sekilas tentang RALS RALS merupakan perusahaan yang bergerak di bidang ritel. RALS melalui department store: Ramayana menjalankan bisnis di segmen pakaian dan aksesoris, sedangkan melalui supermarket: Spar menjalankan bisnis di segmen barang swalayan. RALS memiliki 116 gerai: 76 gerai di Pulau Jawa dan 40 gerai di luar Pulau Jawa, dan mengincar konsumen segmen menengah-bawah.
Untuk mengimbangi lesunya kondisi pasar, RALS menawarkan konsep gaya hidup (lifestyle) melalui gerai Ramayana Prime dengan bekerjasama dengan waralaba F&B, bioskop, dan specialty shops. Selain itu, RALS berkerja sama dengan Lazada untuk menjangkau segmen e-commerce.
Industri Ritel Indonesia di ASEAN Indonesia merupakan negara dengan jumlah penduduk terbesar di ASEAN. Hal ini menjadikan Indonesia sebagai tempat yang menguntungkan bagi bisnis ritel. Pasar ritel Indonesia dikuasai oleh LPPF, RALS, MAPI dengan gerai yang tersebar di seluruh Indonesia. Pada 2018, Aprindo menargetkan pertumbuhan bisnis ritel sebesar 9%.
Kebijakan pemerintah yang mengunci tarif listrik dan harga BBM bersubsidi hingga 2019 pun bisa menjadi katalis pulihnya daya beli masyarakat hingga 2019. Industri ritel di pasar ASEAN cenderung lesu, sebagai contoh angka pertumbuhan penjualan negatif di Singapura dan Thailand. Hal ini membuat para pelaku industri ritel di ASEAN harus lebih ketat menekan beban operasional untuk mengimbangi pasar. Namun pada 2017, mayoritas pelaku industri ritel tetap membukukan price-earnings ratio yang tinggi dan ROE dua digit. Di sisi margin, pelaku industri ritel di Indonesia mampu membukukan margin yang lebih tinggi dibanding kompetitornya di ASEAN.
ASEAN Retailers Market Cap Total Asset Sales Gross Operating Dividend Company ROE P/E P/BV (USD mn) (USD mn) Growth Margin Margin Yield
LPPF 2,199 399 1.28% 62.5% 23.7% 91.2% 15.9x 13.0x 4.7% RALS 665 360 4.00% 39% 6.7% 11.9% 19.8x 2.3x 3.0%
- MAPI 965 789 15.24% 49% 6.3% 9.5% 39.4x 3.3x 0.3%
Singapore
Metro Holdings 717 1,114 15.12% 7% -1% 13.6% 4.8x 0.6x 4.4%
- Malaysia
Parkson Holdings Bhd 113 2,270 2.07% N/A -3% -7.7% N/A 0.2x N/A
Thailand
Robinson PCL 2,208 846 0.34% 25% -1% 17.3% 25.1x 4.2x 2.0%
- Philippines
SM Investments Corp 22,446 19,205 8.63% 39% 16% 10.5% 35.5x 3.6x 0.8% Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research
Operational Performance Sales (IDR bn)| 2014 - 2017 Sales by Geography (IDR bn)| 2014 - 2017
Source: Company, NHKS research Source: Company, NHKS research
Store Sales Growth (YTD) | 2016 & 2017 Gross Sales (IDR bn)| 2017
Source: Company, NHKS research Source: Company, NHKS research
Gross, Net Profit & EBIT Margin| 2014 - 2017 Direct Purchase & Consignment Margin | 2014 - 2017
Source: Company, NHKS research Source: Company, NHKS research
Multiple Valuation Forward P/E band | Last 3 years Dynamic Forward P/E band | Last 3 years
Source: NHKS research Source: NHKS research
Rating and target price Date Rating Target Price Last Price Consensus vs Last Price vs Consensus
04/04/2018 Hold 1,450 1,310 1,338 +10.7% +8.4% Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research
Closing and Target Price Analyst Coverage Rating
Source: Bloomberg Source: NHKS research
NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia (NHKS) stock ratings
1. Period: End of year target price
2. Rating system based on a stock’s absolute return from the date of publication : Greater than +15%
Buy : -15% to +15% Hold : Less than -15% Sell
Summary of Financials
DISCLAIMER
INCOME STATEMENT BALANCE SHEET
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errors, omissions, misstatements, negligence, inaccuracy arising herefrom. All rights reserved by PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia RALS Summary Last Price (IDR) 1,310Target Price (IDR) 1,450 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E
Rating: Hold ROE 12.3% 11.9% 12.0% 13.2% ROA 8.9% 8.5% 8.7% 9.5% ROIC 9.7% 9.6% 9.3% 10.9% EBITDA/Equity 16.6% 16.4% 16.0% 17.0%In IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E EBITDA/Assets 12.0% 11.8% 11.5% 12.2%
Net Sales 5,857 5,623 5,736 6,077 Cash Dividend (IDR bn) 242 244 253 300
Growth (% y/y) 6% -4% 2% 6% Dividend Yield (%) 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 3.4%
COGS (3,655) (3,410) (3,462) (3,638) Payout Ratio (%) 59.2% 59.9% 58.7% 59.8%
Gross Profit 2,202 2,212 2,273 2,439 DER 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x
Gross Margin 38% 39% 40% 40% Net Gearing 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x
Operating Expenses (1,834) (1,836) (1,892) (1,991) LT Debt to Equity 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x
EBIT 369 377 382 448 Capitalization Ratio 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x
EBIT Margin 6% 7% 7% 7% Equity Ratio 0.7x 0.7x 0.7x 0.7x
Depreciation (187) (184) (191) (199) Debt Ratio 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x
EBITDA 555 561 573 647 Financial Leverage 1.4x 1.4x 1.4x 1.4x
EBITDA Margin 9% 10% 10% 11% Current Ratio 2.8x 3.0x 3.2x 3.2x
Interest Cost - - - - Quick Ratio 2.0x 2.2x 2.4x 2.5x
EBT 465 467 493 562 Cash Ratio 0.6x 0.7x 0.6x 0.8x
Income Tax (57) (60) (62) (61) Par Value (IDR) 50 50 50Growth (% y/y) 22% 0% 6% 16% Share Price (IDR) 1,195 1,200 1,310 1,310
50 Net Profit 409 407 432 502 Total Shares (mn) 6,723 6,723 6,723 6,723 Net Profit Margin 7% 7% 8% 8% Market Cap (IDR tn) 8.0 8.1 8.8 8.8 In IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12ECash 604 752 626 924 Price /Earnings 19.6x 19.8x 20.4x 17.6x
Inventories 834 741 844 829 Price /Book Value 2.4x 2.3x 2.4x 2.2x
Other Current Assets 1,341 1,543 1,755 1,958 Price/Sales 1.4x 1.4x 1.5x 1.4x
Total Current Assets 2,831 3,093 3,289 3,770 PE/EPS Growth 0.8x -43.1x 3.4x 1.1x
Net Fixed Assets 1,279 1,235 1,203 1,158 EV/EBITDA 13.4x 13.0x 14.3x 12.2x
Other Non Current Assets 53 80 97 81 EV/EBIT 20.2x 19.4x 21.4x 17.6xTotal Assets 1,816 1,798 1,783 1,725 EV (IDR bn) 7,430 7,315 8,181 7,882
ST Bank loans - - - - Sales CAGR (3-Yr) -0.8% -1.4% 1.2% 1.2%
Payables 904 956 933 1,075 EPS CAGR (3-Yr) 3.4% 6.5% 9.5% 7.1%
Total Current Liabilities 1,009 1,049 1,018 1,164 Basic EPS (IDR) 61 61 64 75 LT Debt - - - - Diluted EPS (IDR) 61 61 64 75 Other Non Current Liab. 301 349 371 402 BVPS (IDR) 496 520 548 585Total Liabilities 1,310 1,398 1,390 1,565 Sales PS (IDR) 871 836 853 904
Shareholders' Equity 3,337 3,494 3,682 3,931 DPS (IDR) 36.0 36.3 37.7 44.7 In IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E Net Income 409 407 432 502 DCF (IDR bn) Deprec & Amortization 187 184 191 199 NOPAT 324 329 334 400 Chg. In Working Capital 162 261 (351) (39) +Depr./Amor. 187 184 191 199 CFO 757 852 272 662 -CAPEX (135) (140) (160) (156) Capex (135) (140) (160) (156) -Incr. (Decr.) in Working Cap. 162 261 (351) (39) CFI (587) (461) (154) (111) (Unlevered) FCFF 537 634 14 405 Dividends Paid (207) (242) (244) (253) WACC Net Borrowing - - - - Cost of Debt (Tax Adj.) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% CFF (411) (245) (244) (253) Cost of Equity (COE) 10.2% 11.5% 12.1% 12.2% Net Changes in Cash (240) 146 (126) 298 WACC (%) 10.2% 11.5% 12.1% 12.2% RIM Spread (FROE-COE) (%) 2.1% 0.7% 0.3% 1.4% Residual Income (IDR) 70 23 9 Indonesia 53 By Geography % Shareholders % Equity Charge 339 384 423 449 74.9 Ramayana Makmur S 55.9 EVA Hong Kong 7.8 HSBC 5.6 Invested Capital (IDR bn) 3,334 3,337 3,494 3,682 United States 5.8 Paulus Tumewu 3.7 ROIC-WACC (%) -0.5% -1.6% -2.5% -1.3% Unknown 4.9 Norges Bank 2.2 EVA (IDR bn) (15) (55) (89) (49)CASH FLOW STATEMENT DCF, RIM & EVA OWNERSHIP PROFITABILITY & STABILITY April 2, 2018 Dec 2018 Analyst: Michael Tjahjadi