7 ekspor Tenaga Kerja PMDN

DATA VARIABEL

  2000 24016650 2437764 833138 416.8

  2002 25925360 7082899 5283857 1021.3

  13.31 10265 340000 519744

  15.5

  2001 24911050 2294796 5206535 916.2

  22 9525 254000 56057

  5.9

  25 7855 210000 39979

  16.18 9261 464000 339603

  1.68

  1999 22898424 2606216 730122 449

  16 10014 174000 29118

  79.01

  1998 22332689 2713661 701421 342.5

  17 2909 151000 440249

  9.49

  2003 27071250 2687877 5239910 1352

  1997 25065405 3443555 717112 771

  5.97

  Universitas Sumatera Utara

  Juta Rp 00 us$ orang milyar Rp % % RP/US$ Rp Juta Rp

  8.6 9334 761000 1672463

  6.42

  2007 99792270 7082899 5648000 2717.9

  12.89 9087 737794 596055

  2006 93330100 5523900 5491696 2184.7

  4.46

  11.75 9857 600000 265674

  22.91

  2005 87897790 4563075 5803112 1830.6

  8.25 9223 537000 532653

  6.64

  2004 28688853 4239409 5514170 1501.5

  13.79 8571 505000 504056

  9.9

  Thn PDRB Ekspor TK BD

  INF SBI Kurs UMP PMDN

  15.35 1644 25000 243583

  18.99 1770 36000 287488

  6.64

  1989 5478875 306558 414515 310.8

  18.42 1686 36000 312260

  11.24

  1988 4999214 298875 384326 287.4

  7.32

  7.56

  1987 4492442 239753 355516 228.5

  16.88 1612 25000 228637

  11.29

  1986 4131717 246854 328038 219.5

  18.4 1587 25000 210095

  2.79

  1985 3886495 358664 301764 212.6

  1990 5934565 453732 446239 321.7

  17.7 1843 57900 264438

  6.66

  1994 19942023 453357 689567 515.6

  1996 23714737 327768 672487 660.8

  13 2249 126500 443599

  9.16

  1995 21753805 265347 629990 584

  13 2161 112500 309781

  8.97

  17.78 2087 93000 441531

  1991 6364634 312387 479526 336.9

  9.75

  1993 18215459 432887 551065 458.7

  22.65 2030 67500 432144

  4.56

  1992 6832672 275775 514393 383.2

  19.63 1950 57900 321400

  8.99

  17 2342 138000 490249

  8000000 7000000 6000000 5000000 4000000 3000000 2000000 1000000

  93

  94

  95

  96

  97

  98

  99

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  2

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  7 ekspor Tenaga Kerja PMDN \

  Universitas Sumatera Utara

  120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000

  93

  94

  95

  96

  97

  98

  99

  1

  2

  3

  4

  5

  6

  7 pdrb (milyar Rp) Universitas Sumatera Utara

  \ 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000

  93

  94

  95

  96

  97

  98

  99

  1

  2

  3

  4

  5

  6

  7 Belanja Daerah Kurs Universitas Sumatera Utara

  90

  80

  70

  60

  50

  40

  30

  20

  10

  93

  94

  95

  96

  97

  98

  99

  1

  2

  3

  4

  5

  6

  7 Inflasi SBI Universitas Sumatera Utara

  120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000

  93

  94

  95

  96

  97

  98

  99

  1

  2

  3

  4

  5

  6

  7 pdrb (milyar Rp) ekspor Juta US$) TK (ribu jiwa) BD (milyar Rp)

  INF (%) SBI (%) Kurs (Rp/US$) UMP (ribu Rp) PMDN (milyar Rp) Universitas Sumatera Utara

  12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000

  93

  94

  95

  96

  97

  98

  99

  1

  2

  3

  4

  5

  6

  7 ekspor Juta US$) TK (ribu jiwa) BD (milyar Rp)

  INF (%) SBI (%) Kurs (Rp/US$) UMP (ribu Rp) PMDN (milyar Rp) Universitas Sumatera Utara

Lampiran 1 Data Variabel

  Thn PDRB Ekspor Anktn Kerja Inflasi

  Suku Bunga Kredit Kurs PMDN Belanja

  Daerah 1986 3947 1135 3135 5.66 18.47 1283 228637 26219 1987 4308 1311 4034 8.83 19.43 1644 243583 31037 1988 4824 1243 4339

  8.2 18.42 1686 312260 36348 1989 5303 1721 4078 6.3 18.82 1770 287488 44674 1990 5934 1542 3820

  7.56 18.52 1843 264438 48476 1991 6364 1792 4021 8.99 20.56 1950 195835 43516 1992 6832 2012 4082 9.52 19.21 2030 432144 91319 1993 18215 2227 4193

  11.27 17.78 2087 441531 123959 1994 19942 2689 4299 4.43 14.96 2161 309781 230947 1995 21753 3107 4315 8.83 15.75 2249 443599 266143 1996 23714 3277 4483 6.66 16.42 2342 490249 314032 1997 25065 3145 4700

  9.9 17.34 2909 440249 332998 1998 22332 2714 4864 79.01 23.16 10014 129118 15125 1999 22898 2606 5105

  1.68 22.93 7855 139979 203442 2000 24016 2438 5101 5.9 16.59 8473 56057 70572 2001 24911 2295 5210

  15.5 17.9 10265 519744 152569 2002 25925 7083 4831 9.49 17.82 9261 339603 745188 2003 27071 2687 4835 4.46 15.68 8571 504056 166013 2004 28688 4239 4756 6.64 14.05 9223 532653 234055 2005 87897 4563 5166

  22.91 15.43 8754 265674 156340 2006 93330 5523 4870 5.97 15.81 9087 596055 375043 2007 99792 7082 5082 6.42 15.81 8754 1672463 763672 Milyar

  Rp Milyar Rp 000 jiwa % % RP/US$ Juta Rp Juta Rp

LAMPIRAN 2 :

Hasil Output Regresi Berganda

  Dependent Variable: PMDN Method: Least Squares Date: 01/26/10 Time: 00:46 Sample: 1986 2007 Included observations: 22 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  C 559510.2 807498.4 0.692893 0.5006 KURS 48.41673 24.23124 1.998112 0.0671 AK 6.711479 5.009151 0.044472 0.9652 BDP 3.441282 0.683326 5.036077 0.0002 EKSP 404.0731 104.6235 3.862164 0.0020

  INF -5980.195 3243.662 -1.843656 0.0881 KE -454371.1 147923.2 -3.071668 0.0089

  PDRB 6.527801 2.688416 2.428122 0.0304 SBK -2394.380 21991.58 -0.108877 0.9150

  R-squared 0.840303 Mean dependent var 402054.4 Adjusted R-squared 0.742027 S.D. dependent var 319080.4 S.E. of regression 162064.1 Akaike info criterion 7.121046 Sum squared resid 3414421 Schwarz criterion 7.567080 Log likelihood -289.3361 F-statistic 8.550501 Durbin-Watson stat 2.088927 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000429

LAMPIRAN 3 :

Uji Asumsi Klasik : Normalitas Data

  6 Series: Residuals Sample 1986 2007

  5 Observations 22

  4 Mean -1.19E-11 Median -14486.01 Maximum 236679.9

  3 Minimum -212261.3 Std. Dev. 127511.4

  2 Skewness 0.266287 Kurtosis 2.022073

  1 Jarque-Bera 1.136646 Probability 0.566475

• 200000 200000

Uji Asumsi Klasik : Uji Heterokedastisitas

  KURS^2 -433.6030 2761.700 -0.157006 0.8797 PDRB -3453762. 3285058. -1.051355 0.3280

  2.01E+21 Schwarz criterion 50.93763 Log likelihood -560.6987 F-statistic 0.820547 Durbin-Watson stat 2.195819 Prob(F-statistic) 0.648431

  1.70E+10 Akaike info criterion 50.14772 Sum squared resid

  1.59E+10 S.E. of regression

  1.60E+10 Adjusted R-squared -0.139412 S.D. dependent var

  8.55E+08 0.486799 0.6413 R-squared 0.637460 Mean dependent var

  4.16E+08

  3.02E+10 -0.514927 0.6225 SBK^2

  PDRB^2 26.47626 25.38951 1.042803 0.3317 SBK -1.56E+10

  White Heteroskedasticity Test: F-statistic 0.820547 Probability 0.648431 Obs*R-squared 14.66158 Probability 0.476058 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID^2 Method: Least Squares Date: 01/25/10 Time: 22:34 Sample: 1985 2007 Included observations: 23 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  C

  INF^2 -2628360. 26940596 -0.097561 0.9250 KE -2.06E+10

  2.37E+09 0.017263 0.9867

  INF 40867640

  EKSP 62464820 44836435 1.393171 0.2062 EKSP^2 -8694.797 5939.790 -1.463822 0.1867

  BDP 18259.77 194642.0 0.093812 0.9279 BDP^2 0.185766 0.279727 0.664098 0.5279

  2.61E+08 -0.407728 0.6957 AK^2 14522.32 34471.97 0.421279 0.6862

  3.95E+11 0.698695 0.5073 AK -1.06E+08

  2.76E+11

  2.16E+10 -0.955588 0.3711 KURS 7052631. 32300135 0.218347 0.8334

Uji Asumsi Klasik : Uji Autokorelasi

  Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test: F-statistic 1.888459 Probability 0.197219 Obs*R-squared 5.623107 Probability 0.060112 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID Method: Least Squares Date: 01/26/10 Time: 00:48 Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.

  Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  C -46243.21 758525.2 -0.060965 0.9525 KURS -0.963218 22.83939 -0.042174 0.9671

  AK -50.58384 143.9391 -0.351425 0.7319 BDP -0.263576 0.658978 -0.399977 0.6968

  EKSP 43.70566 100.9597 0.432902 0.6735

  INF -2213.643 3364.858 -0.657871 0.5241 KE 22851.67 139352.0 0.163985 0.8727

  PDRB -0.019835 2.525509 -0.007854 0.9939 SBK 12095.55 21604.40 0.559865 0.5868

  RESID(-1) -0.229342 0.322475 -0.711193 0.4918 RESID(-2) -0.609200 0.331243 -1.839131 0.0930

  R-squared 0.255596 Mean dependent var -1.19E-11 Adjusted R-squared -0.421135 S.D. dependent var 127511.4 S.E. of regression 152008.1 Akaike info criterion 27.00811 Sum squared resid

  2.54E+11 Schwarz criterion 27.55363 Log likelihood -286.0892 F-statistic 0.377692 Durbin-Watson stat 1.742044 Prob(F-statistic) 0.931861

Uji Asumsi Klasik : UJI MULTIKOLINEARITAS

  Dependent Variable: KURS Method: Least Squares Date: 01/26/10 Time: 00:49 Sample: 1986 2007 Included observations: 22 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  C -13437.89 8150.187 -1.648783 0.1214 AK 3.099836 1.443718 2.147119 0.0498

  BDP -0.014571 0.006453 -2.258001 0.0404 EKSP 2.350703 0.967944 2.428552 0.0292

  INF -4.517477 35.75597 -0.126342 0.9013 KE 1967.281 1544.496 1.273736 0.2235

  PDRB -0.003560 0.029637 -0.120123 0.9061 SBK 6.290485 242.5529 0.025934 0.9797

  R-squared 0.833945 Mean dependent var 5191.409 Adjusted R-squared 0.756918 S.D. dependent var 3625.523 S.E. of regression 1787.505 Akaike info criterion 18.09032 Sum squared resid 44732437 Schwarz criterion 18.48706 Log likelihood -190.9935 F-statistic 10.34150 Durbin-Watson stat 1.568081 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000136 Dependent Variable: AK Method: Least Squares Date: 01/26/10 Time: 00:50 Sample: 1986 2007 Included observations: 22 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  C 4573.297 742.3285 6.160746 0.0000 KURS 0.079914 0.037219 2.147119 0.0498 BDP 0.000435 0.001205 0.361461 0.7232 EKSP -0.102769 0.183235 -0.560859 0.5838

  INF -0.810214 5.740240 -0.141146 0.8898 KE 432.4228 235.0918 1.839379 0.0872 PDRB 0.007551 0.004312 1.751014 0.1018

  SBK -31.93644 37.99890 -0.840457 0.4148 R-squared 0.805392 Mean dependent var 4514.500 Adjusted R-squared 0.708088 S.D. dependent var 531.2077 S.E. of regression 287.0054 Akaike info criterion 14.43217 Sum squared resid 1153210. Schwarz criterion 14.82891 Log likelihood -150.7538 F-statistic 8.277078 Durbin-Watson stat 1.357011 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000449

Uji Asumsi Klasik : UJI MULTIKOLINEARITAS

  Dependent Variable: BDP Method: Least Squares Date: 01/26/10 Time: 00:51 Sample: 1986 2007 Included observations: 22 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  C -246073.2 308904.2 -0.796601 0.4390 AK 21.23659 58.75214 0.361461 0.7232

  KURS -18.32194 8.114230 -2.258001 0.0404 EKSP 143.0365 14.59695 9.799070 0.0000

  INF -2337.665 1104.152 -2.117158 0.0526 KE 76474.03 54125.06 1.412913 0.1795

  PDRB -0.973658 1.018780 -0.955710 0.3554 SBK 2786.195 8569.016 0.325148 0.7499

  R-squared 0.738424 Mean dependent var 203258.5 Adjusted R-squared 0.907636 S.D. dependent var 208566.2 S.E. of regression 63386.24 Akaike info criterion 25.22717 Sum squared resid

  5.62E+10 Schwarz criterion 25.62391 Log likelihood -269.4989 F-statistic 30.48023 Durbin-Watson stat 2.022339 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 Dependent Variable: EKSP Method: Least Squares Date: 01/26/10 Time: 00:51 Sample: 1986 2007 Included observations: 22 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  C 2343.045 1965.411 1.192140 0.2530 BDP 0.006102 0.000623 9.799070 0.0000 AK -0.213830 0.381254 -0.560859 0.5838

  KURS 0.126093 0.051921 2.428552 0.0292

  INF 13.18994 7.498681 1.758968 0.1004 KE -334.2443 367.1597 -0.910351 0.3780

  PDRB 0.011292 0.006169 1.830378 0.0886 SBK -35.10288 55.38870 -0.633755 0.5365

  R-squared 0.760815 Mean dependent var 3019.591 Adjusted R-squared 0.941223 S.D. dependent var 1707.618 S.E. of regression 413.9936 Akaike info criterion 15.16487 Sum squared resid 2399470. Schwarz criterion 15.56161 Log likelihood -158.8135 F-statistic 49.04054 Durbin-Watson stat 2.532129 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

Uji Asumsi Klasik : UJI MULTIKOLINEARITAS

  Dependent Variable: INF Method: Least Squares Date: 01/26/10 Time: 00:52 Sample: 1986 2007 Included observations: 22 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  C -48.76010 65.24505 -0.747338 0.4672 EKSP 0.013722 0.007801 1.758968 0.1004

  BDP -0.000104

  4.90E-05 -2.117158 0.0526 AK -0.001754 0.012426 -0.141146 0.8898

  KURS -0.000252 0.001995 -0.126342 0.9013 KE 8.689208 11.96484 0.726229 0.4797

  PDRB -2.56E-05 0.000221 -0.115795 0.9095 SBK 2.674829 1.665015 1.606490 0.1305

  R-squared 0.515575 Mean dependent var 11.55136 Adjusted R-squared 0.273363 S.D. dependent var 15.66493 S.E. of regression 13.35326 Akaike info criterion 8.296686 Sum squared resid 2496.334 Schwarz criterion 8.693428 Log likelihood -83.26354 F-statistic 2.128608 Durbin-Watson stat 2.149677 Prob(F-statistic) 0.108466 Dependent Variable: KE Method: Least Squares Date: 01/26/10 Time: 00:52 Sample: 1986 2007 Included observations: 22 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  C -2.702117 1.267680 -2.131546 0.0512

  INF 0.004178 0.005753 0.726229 0.4797 EKSP -0.000167 0.000184 -0.910351 0.3780

  BDP

  1.63E-06

  1.15E-06 1.412913 0.1795 AK 0.000450 0.000245 1.839379 0.0872 KURS

  5.28E-05

  4.14E-05 1.273736 0.2235 PDRB -7.53E-06

  4.42E-06 -1.704284 0.1104 SBK 0.056303 0.036774 1.531047 0.1480

  R-squared 0.724924 Mean dependent var 0.272727 Adjusted R-squared 0.587386 S.D. dependent var 0.455842 S.E. of regression 0.292810 Akaike info criterion 0.656705 Sum squared resid 1.200331 Schwarz criterion 1.053447 Log likelihood 0.776250 F-statistic 5.270723 Durbin-Watson stat 2.034527 Prob(F-statistic) 0.004063

Uji Asumsi Klasik : UJI MULTIKOLINEARITAS UJI MULTIKOLINEARITAS

  Dependent Variable: PDRB Method: Least Squares Date: 01/26/10 Time: 00:52 Sample: 1986 2007 Included observations: 22 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  C -119113.0 73693.15 -1.616338 0.1283 KE -22807.61 13382.52 -1.704284 0.1104

  INF -37.32131 322.3052 -0.115795 0.9095 EKSP 17.10096 9.342854 1.830378 0.0886

  BDP -0.062903 0.065818 -0.955710 0.3554 AK 23.79356 13.58845 1.751014 0.1018

  KURS -0.289213 2.407640 -0.120123 0.9061 SBK 473.3250 2182.568 0.216866 0.8314

  R-squared 0.785141 Mean dependent var 27411.86 Adjusted R-squared 0.677712 S.D. dependent var 28379.48 S.E. of regression 16111.15 Akaike info criterion 22.48770 Sum squared resid

  3.63E+09 Schwarz criterion 22.88444 Log likelihood -239.3647 F-statistic 7.308443 Durbin-Watson stat 1.428973 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000851 Dependent Variable: SBK Method: Least Squares Date: 01/26/10 Time: 00:53 Sample: 1986 2007 Included observations: 22 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  C 24.80784 7.234939 3.428894 0.0041 PDRB

  7.07E-06

  3.26E-05 0.216866 0.8314 KE 2.547346 1.663793 1.531047 0.1480

  INF 0.058191 0.036222 1.606490 0.1305 EKSP -0.000794 0.001254 -0.633755 0.5365

  BDP

  2.69E-06

  8.27E-06 0.325148 0.7499 AK -0.001504 0.001789 -0.840457 0.4148

  KURS

  7.64E-06 0.000294 0.025934 0.9797 R-squared 0.538316 Mean dependent var 17.76636 Adjusted R-squared 0.307473 S.D. dependent var 2.366727 S.E. of regression 1.969547 Akaike info criterion 4.468772 Sum squared resid 54.30763 Schwarz criterion 4.865515 Log likelihood -41.15649 F-statistic 2.331963 Durbin-Watson stat 1.794250 Prob(F-statistic) 0.084123

DESKRIPTIF VARIABEL

  TK BDP EKSP

  INF KE Mean 4514.500 203258.5 3019.591 11.55136 0.272727 Median 4591.500 154454.5 2646.500 7.880000 0.000000 Maximum 5210.000 763672.0 7083.000 79.01000 1.000000 Minimum 3135.000 15125.00 1135.000 1.680000 0.000000 Std. Dev. 531.2077 208566.2 1707.618 15.66493 0.455842 Skewness -0.661988 1.642887 1.257889 3.874490 1.020621 Kurtosis 3.049373 5.074470 3.725599 17.18753 2.041667 Jarque-Bera 1.609070 13.84142 6.284330 239.5551 4.661314 Probability 0.447296 0.000987 0.043189 0.000000 0.097232 Sum 99319.00 4471687. 66431.00 254.1300 6.000000 Sum Sq. Dev. 5925814. 9.13E+11 61235119 5153.192 4.363636 Observations

  22

  22

  22

  22

  22 KE KURS PDRB PMDN SBK Mean 0.272727 5191.409 27411.86 402054.4 17.76636 Median 0.000000 2625.500 22615.00 325931.5 17.80000 Maximum 1.000000 10265.00 99792.00 1672463. 23.16000 Minimum 0.000000 1283.000 3947.000 56057.00 14.05000 Std. Dev. 0.455842 3625.523 28379.48 319080.4 2.366727 Skewness 1.020621 0.213924 1.726500 2.936662 0.748710 Kurtosis 2.041667 1.141135 4.722058 12.68537 3.155646 Jarque-Bera 4.661314 3.335231 13.64797 117.6105 2.077620 Probability 0.097232 0.188696 0.001087 0.000000 0.353875 Sum 6.000000 114211.0 603061.0 8845196. 390.8600 Sum Sq. Dev. 4.363636 2.76E+08 1.69E+10

  2.14E+12 117.6293 Observations

  22

  22

  22

  22

  22