Berita investasi, saham, reksadana dan perencanaan keuangan

27 April 2018

Premier Insight
News & Analysis
Corporates
10,000

ADRO: Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ; Rp1,995; Buy) reported below estimate 1Q18
results with details as follow;

9,000

6,300

8,000
6,200
7,000
6,000

6,000


5,000



Rp bn

JCI Index

6,100

4,000

5,900

3,000
5,800
2,000
5,700




1,000
-

26-Apr

25-Apr

24-Apr

23-Apr

20-Apr

19-Apr

18-Apr

17-Apr


16-Apr

13-Apr

12-Apr

9-Apr

11-Apr

6-Apr

10-Apr

5-Apr

4-Apr

3-Apr


2-Apr

29-Mar

28-Mar

27-Mar

5,600

Foreign net buy (sell)

26-Apr

24-Apr

23-Apr

20-Apr


19-Apr

18-Apr

17-Apr

16-Apr

13-Apr

0%

12-Apr

-

(0)

11-Apr


5%

10-Apr

0

-5%

(0)

-10%

(0)

-15%

(0)

-20%


(0)

-25%

% net buy/market turnover



Net buy (sell) in Rp bn

Equity | Indonesia | Research Daily

JCI Index
6,400

Net profit reached US$74.4mn, down 32% qoq and 23% yoy, represent
only 13% of our and consensus’ forecast for FY18F, mostly caused by
higher mining costs as stripping ratio increased to 4.94x (1Q17: 4.62x).
Operating profit reached US172mn in1Q18, dropped 24% qoq and 1.4%
yoy as production and operating costs increased. Operating profit in 1Q18

formed only 16%-14% of consensus’ and our forecasts for FY18F,
respectively.
Revenues reached US$764mn, down 6.8% qoq
but up 5.1% yoy,
represent 22%-21% of consensus’ and our forecasts for FY18F.
(Company).

Comment: We are reviewing our forecast for ADRO given this lower than expected
results and management’s decision to lower FY18F EBITDA guidance from $1.3bn$1.5bn to $1.1bn-$1.3bn.
(US$ Mn)

Key Indexes
Index

JCI
LQ45

Closing

1 day


1 year

YTD

5,909

- 2.8%

3.5%

-7.0%

943

- 3.6%

-0.3%

-12.6%


24,322

1.0%

15.9%

-1.6%

SET

1,773

- 0.4%

13.2%

1.1%

HSI


30,008

- 1.1%

21.5%

0.3%

NKY

DJI

22,320

0.5%

15.9%

-1.8%

FTSE

7,421

0.6%

2.5%

-3.5%

FSSTI

3,570

0.1%

12.6%

4.9%

26

- 1.2%

-3.5%

-10.1%

EIDO

1Q18

4Q17

1Q17

% Q-Q

% Y-Y

vs. cons

vs. ours

Sales

764

819

727

(6.8)

5.1

21.6

20.8

COGS

538

537

509

0.0

5.6

Gross profit

226

282

218

(19.7)

4.0

18.2

16.2

Total opex

54

56

43

(2.3)

25.9
37.8

16.3

14.5

15.8

14.6

13.2

12.7

Selling expenses
G&A expenses
Operating profit
Non opr. inc. (exp.)
Pretax income

9

10

6

(10.4)

46

46

37

(0.6)

23.9

172

227

175

(24.0)

(1.4)

(8)

(4)

7

78.0

neg

165

222

182

(26.0)

(9.4)

Tax

77

100

72

(22.8)

7.4

Net Income

74

111

97

(32.8)

(23.4)

Gross margin

29.6

34.4

29.9

Operating margin

22.5

27.6

24.0

21.5

27.1

25.0

9.7

13.5

13.4

Coal prod vol (m tons)

11.0

12.4

11.9

(11.9)

(7.7)

19.8

Coal sales vol (m tons)

10.9

12.4

12.0

(11.7)

(9.1)

19.2

Profitability (%)

Commodity price
Commodities

Last price Ret 1 day Ret 1 year

(in USD)
68.2

0.2%

37.4%

Pretax margin

CPO/tonne

609.2

-0.3%

-5.0%

Net margin

Soy/bushel

10.0

-0.2%

9.2%

Oil/barrel (WTI)

Rubber/kg

1.7

0.0%

-31.5%

Nickel/tonne

14,181

0.7%

54.5%

Tins/tonne

21,555

0.4%

8.0%

Copper/tonne

6,929

-0.6%

21.8%

Gold/try.oz (Spot)

1,317

-0.5%

4.2%

93.5

0.1%

11.6%

Coal/tonne
Corn/bushel
Wheat/bushel (USd)

Source : Bloomberg

3.6

0.0%

6.7%

483.3

0.5%

16.9%

Coal sales (US$ Mn)

704

758

679

(7.1)

3.7

21.1

Coal ASP ($/t)

64.4

61.2

56.4

5.2

14.1

109.9

ANTM: Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ; Rp830; Not Rated) 1Q18 result, net profit
grew 3,603% to Rp245bn (61% to FY18 consensus). Revenue up 247% to
Rp5.7bn from Rp1.6bn. Gold contribute 71% of 1Q18 sales at Rp4.09tn.
Ferronickel sales contribute 17% at Rp972bn. (Company).
(Rp bn)

1Q18

1Q17

YoY

4Q17

QoQ

Consensus

Revenue

5,731

1,650

247%

5,691

100.70%

39%

Gross Profit

727

82

787%

774

93.93%

40%

Operating Profit

478

(84)

569%

367

130.25%

63%

Net Income

246

7

3606%

468

52.50%

62%

12.7%

5.0%

Operating Margin

8.3%

-5.1%

Net Margin

4.3%

0.4%

Gross Margin

Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report

PremierInsight
CTRA: Ciputra development (CTRA IJ; Rp1,100; Buy) revised their previous ads
regarding the issueance of non pre-emptive share with maximum of 1.85bn shares in
exercise price of Rp1,191/share. Post the corporate actions the ownership of existing
shareholders will be diluted by 10% (from: 5.23%).
HMSP: HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ; Rp3,650; Hold) recorded weak 1Q18 results with
details as follow;








Net profit reached Rp 3.0 tn in 1Q18, dropped by 9% qoq/8% yoy, achieving
only 21%/22% of consensus/our forecasts for FY18F, mainly caused by weak
sales growth and decline in margin.
Revenues reached Rp 23 tn in 1Q18, declined by -13.7% qoq/+2.5% y-y (vs
3% yoy in 1Q13 and 6.4% yoy in 4Q17). Sales of machine-made cigarette
(SKM) increased by 8% yoy to Rp 15.9 tn in 1Q18, while hand-rolled (SKT)
and white cigarette reported decline in sales by 1% yoy and 20% yoy,
respectively, in 1Q18. SKM accounts for 69% of sales in 1Q18 (vs 65% in
1Q17).
Gross profit dropped by 5% yoy/ 17% q-q to Rp 5.4 tn and gross margin
declined by 200 bps to 23.8% in 1Q18, in-line with weak sales number and
higher COGS (+5% y-y in 1Q18).
Operating profit reached Rp 3.7 tn in 1Q18, dropped 11% qoq/9%yoy,
achieving only 21%/21% of consensus/our forecasts for FY18F. EBIT margin
also decline to 16.3% in 1Q18 (vs 18.4% in 1Q17). (Company).
1Q17

4Q17

1Q18

qoq(%)

yoy(%)

Ours

to Ours

Cons

Total Sales (in Rp Bln)

HMSP

22,576

26,797

23,136

-13.7%

2%

105,468

21.9%

107,343

21.6%

COGS (in Rp Bln)

16,769

20,172

17,640

-12.6%

5%

81,290

21.7%

80,797

21.8%

-17.0%

-5%

24,178

22.7%

26,546

20.7%

Gross Profit (in Rp Bln)

5,807

6,625

5,496

Margin (%)

25.7%

24.7%

23.8%

OPEX (in Rp Bln)

1,645

2,362

1,720

As of sales (%)

7.3%

8.8%

7.4%

EBIT (in Rp Bln)

4,162

4,263

3,776

Margin (%)

18.4%

15.9%

16.3%

Earnings (in Rp Bln)

3,291

3,332

3,032

Margin (%)

14.6%

12.4%

13.1%

22.9%
-27.2%

5%

24.7%

6,478

26.6%

8,723

6.1%
-11.4%

-9%

-8%

19.7%

8.1%

17,700

21.3%

17,823

16.8%
-9.0%

to Cons

21.2%

16.6%

14,753

20.6%

13,810

14.0%

22.0%

12.9%

INDF: Indofood (INDF IJ; Rp6,750; Buy) Will aggressively penetrate Asian market
while sponsoring Asian Games 2018 with the sponsorship deal for Rp138bn. Three
products that will be pushed during Asian Games 2018 are Indomie, Indomilk, and
Popmie. INDF already opens its factory in Malaysia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and
Nigeria. (Kontan).
KINO: Kino Indonesia (KINO IJ; Rp2,450; Hold) reported a net income of Rp31bn
(+806.4% yoy) forming 18% of consensus’ forecast. On the top-line, gross profit
grew higher to Rp376bn (+33% yoy) on the back of higher revenue growth (+24%
yoy) that outpaced COGS growth (+17% yoy). Profitability margins also gauged
higher with gross, operating, and net profit reported at 45%, 6%, and 4%,
respectively at 1Q18 (1Q17: 42%, 3%, and 1%).

(IDR b)
Revenue
COGS
Gross profit
Operating cost

1Q18

4Q17

1Q17

(IDR b)

(IDR b)

(IDR b)

———Change———
(q-q%)

(y-y%)

1Q18

1Q17

Change

%

(IDR b)

(IDR b)

(y-y %)

Forecast
23%

832

815

670

2.1

24.2

832

670

24.2

(456)

(467)

(389)

(2.4)

17.3

(456)

(389)

17.3

376

348

281

8.0

33.8

376

281

33.8

(323)

(292)

(264)

10.8

22.4

(323)

(264)

22.4

Operating profit

53

57

17

(6.3)

208.2

53

17

208.2

Interest expense

(14)

(11)

(18)

25.2

(23.8)

(14)

(18)

(23.8)

Tax

(11)

(8)

(2)

34.8

519.9

(11)

(2)

519.9

4

(3)

6

(216.7)

(45.1)

4

6

(45.1)

Minority

0

(0)

(0)

(224.7)

(997.3)

0

(0)

(997.3)

Net profit

32

40

4

(19.5)

806.4

32.193

3.552

806.4

42.0

Other

45.2

42.7

42.0

45.2

Operating margin (%)

Gross margin (%)

6.4

6.9

2.6

6.4

2.6

Net margin (%)

3.9

4.9

0.5

3.9

0.5

Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report

18%

2

PremierInsight
RALS: Ramayana Lestari Sentosa (RALS IJ; Rp1,335; Hold) Collaborate with Shopee,
in order to grab more sales volume during Ramadan this year. Both RALS and Shopee
did not mention any specific target for this partnership. RALS is already collaborating
with Lazada and Tokopedia although online contribution relatively insignificant to the
business. (Kontan).

Markets & Sector
Heavy equipment sector: According to Indonesia heavy equipment association
(Hinabi), 1Q18 heavy equipment production is up 46% yoy to 1,684 units from
previously 1,153 units last year. Hydraulic excavator contribute 91% with 1,534 units,
followed by bulldozer 89 units, dump truck 60 units, and motor grader 1 unit. Hinabi
production target this year is 7,000 units, 25% higher from last year. (Bisnis
Indonesia).

Economics
Monetary update: In response to recent plunge in the capital market, Bank
Indonesia held a press conference emphasising:






That recent decline in the rupiah is due to dollar strengthening, above all, as
an impact of increase in UST yield as well as seasonal increase in the dollar
demand – but also worth noting that the rupiah depreciation of -0.88% mtd
was still better than other countries including Thai’s bath (-1.12% mtd),
Malaysian ringgit (-1.24% mtd), Singapore dollar (-1.17% mtd), South
Korean won (-1.38% mtd), and Indian rupee (-2.4% mtd);
That Indonesian economy fundamentals remain robust and come with
continuous growth momentum, strong financial system, and improving trust
from foreign stakeholders (as seen in Moody’s rating, JCRA, R&A, Fitch as well
as inclusion of Indonesian sovereign in Bloomberg Global Bond Index);
That in the vigilance of recent situation, Bank Indonesia has undertaken dual
interventions both in foreign currency and sovereign bonds market and that it
will continue or embark upon the following steps:
o
Being present in the market to ensure the sufficiency of foreign
currency and rupiah supplies;
Carefully observing global economic development and its impact to
o
domestic market;
o
Preparing 2nd line of defense with related external institutions such as
among other central banks;
Considering increase in reference rate with measured and careful
o
steps. (Bank Indonesia)

Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report

3

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INVESTMENT RATINGS
BUY
: Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period
HOLD
: Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period
SELL
: Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period
ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION.
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst;s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the
research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
DISCLAIMERS
This reserch is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warraty nor accept any responsibility
or liability as to its accruracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general
circulation. Any recommendations contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, finacial situation and the particular
needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any
securities. PT. Indo Premier Sekuritas or its affiliates may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report.