Analisis hubungan antara pasar modal dengan nilai tukar, cadangan devisa, dan ekspor bersih

!

"

#

#

!
#
%

$
%

!

$
%
!
&


%

'

%

(

!)

$
%

!

(
(

%

!
'

*

%

!

(
%

%

%

%

(


%

!

%

%

#

! "
'
+

%

%

!
%

!

'
%

%

(

,--.
!&

%
/

%

'
0


(
+

$+

%
%

#

(

!

+
!"

%

(

1!,!

!

2 / %
2
'

(

!
"

'
( "3

3

'


#

%
%

( "3

'
( "3!

%
%

( "3
5666

4
'

#

5667!
*

( "3

'
'

#

'
!

%

( "3
( "3
!

( "3


!"

#$%&'%
!()*)% ') )" ')+, '-)$)+ ,.+,# /!/&!$0 !" *! )$ )$1).) #0.0/%
&)2) !&)$+!/!. /, #0.0/%

%

*

*

8

/

%

%


8 ,1,656--

"
4

%

8(

"

8 .) %'%'

,(,.*). ).+)$) )')$

% )% ,#)$

)2).*). !3%') 2). #'&0$


!$'%"
%
(

" '
0

'

%

'

!(!"
%
"
( ! ,9, ,51 65,

&

(

!(!/ :
( ! ,9, ;1< ;.5

&

8

02) 2!.*).

"

(

3

( ( " =

/$
(3)

/
&

/3)/)

=
"(? & /=

"

3 (

( 33(

&

>

" =

"&/( "(
)?

"

(/( =
)

3

"&/( "( ( (

& /=

3

?

?)

/

(? (

) !

566<

%
%
,1,656--

4

%

%

,9 "

%

"
!

3

,-;1
!

#

'!

!4 '
"

= %

,--<

2 %
'

"?

= %

2 %

,---!
" )

%

,

5665!
5665

'

! (

(

%

' '

%

'
!

(

'
*
'

)

"
"

!"

'

(

)" (

(

0
*

+

!

'

%

#

">

% $ %
'

%

5

.) %'%'

)2).*).

%

,(,.*). ).+)$)

!3%') 2).

)')$

%

02) 2!.*).

% )%

,#)$

!$'%"6! "

#'&0$

%

" '
0

(

'
%

(

!

%

%
!

+

%

%

!

#
,!

!(!"

%

8

"

%
#
!"
%

%

!
5!

!(!
'

%
%

"

%

(+

!
"% @

!"#

#

'

!

1! :

#

(
!

+

0

" +
%


(

#
;! "

?

(@

(

%

# 0# %

/

%

'
%

!
%

%

!

566<

%
%
,1,656--

0

/

?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

0

/3

0

/?

/ !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! A

(!

(/

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! A

)?)

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ,

,!,! ?

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ,

,!5!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 9

,!9!

'

,!1!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 1
+

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 1

,!7! /
((!

?

( 4 )
5!,!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 7
)"

& !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! <

+

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! <

5!5! (

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! .

5!5!,! "

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ;

5!5!5! :

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! -

5!5!9! :

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! -

5!5!1!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ,6

5!5!7!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ,6

5!9!

(

5!1! (

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ,,
"

3

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ,9

5!7!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ,7

5!

4
'

%
#

5666 #

)"M 5.!161 '

!

#

)"M 9.!1,- '

5661!

&

5667 #
)"M 97>

!'+)'%0.!$). )+)
)'

%
%

%
'
!

'

%

%
3 '

5669 !

( *

5661

*

%
%

%

+

#

%

%

+

%

%
"

%

'

!

#
*

'
!

#

%

%
$!

0!

'

'

0

$

#
*

#&
!

! &
"

#

)
O! 0

&

! 5669! Q(
'

? >G#

$(

"
"
"
98 57-$5.1!

<
!= %

< &

"! ( ! ,--.! &
&

"

C

"

#
C % !(

&
(

4
)

!

!/

% ! 5669! Q

R! "
>

/!
)

2

+

<

! ,--7! &

"

( +

(
2 !7

B

$9!

*

"
&
!58 ,59$,9,!

! 3

4
! 5667!
N

) %
O! 0

&

%
'

! (

?

,!

(
( "3

&

"
/

/
,--<
,--.
,--;
,--5666
566,
5665
5669
5661
"
8

955
9.<
9.9-.
19;
1.9
76,
71.
7.<
+ 4


>
@ >

?

7! )' "

.)) + (
%1 2
. /
2
2 (/

/ #3
3". 4

:(
56

.
7

" !8

".24
7 # 5* + =.)) 0
50 5 ) - ). /
?) - )
?) - )
?) - )
<

5'

.)) + (
%1 2
. /
2
2 (/

3 >> :

/ #3
3". 4

7 7

5

5'

.)) + (
%1 2
. /
2
2 (/

3 >> :

/ #3
3". 4

5

;0 6 <

5

;0 6 <

@

@

.
7

7 7

0
" !8

"9 "

:

5

>@
>>
>

>
@@

- ).

!"#$#%&: (
56

:

>
>

".24
7 # 5* + =.)) 0
50 5 ) - ). /
?) - )
?) - )
?) - )
<

"9 "

- ).

:(
56

0

7

.
" !8

0
"9 "

:
5

".24
7 # 5* + =.)) 0
50 5 ) - ). /
?) - )
?) - )
?) - )
<

5'

.)) + (
%1 2
. /
2
2 (/

3 >> :

/ #3
3". 4

7 7

5

@ @
>>
>

>
@@

- ).

% $%' : (
56

7

.
" !8

0
"9 "

:
5

".24
7 # 5* + =.)) 0
50 5 ) - ). /
?) - )
?) - )
?) - )
<

5'

3 >> :

7 7

;0 6 <

- ).

5

@
> > @
>
>
@ >

;0 6 <

?

@ @
@
>@

=;%
"
<
>
>
>

@
<

>
>
@ >>

75
) 2 07 0
/ C.
)4 7
=;%/ = ) 0 7 5
" !/ "* *
04
!/ 5(D 0E
04
B/
B.

@@ @
@

%
@ >%
%
>@ %
@%
%
>%
%

) 5 7 6+ ( 50 0
7
5 3 5(
00 0
50 0
50 0
04
50 0

% $%'

"!
<

>
>>

<
>
@
@
> >
>
@ @

? ) - ):

!

B

@ >
<

@ @

>>
> >
@
@ >
@ > >

@
>
>

<

?

.! )' &

#

/ A A
4 / /
4 ) 3 7F. 7:/
/
/
5).7 7 6 0/@
0 7F.
2 7
0 7
.4
/
0 7 04
5 0 7
0 /
!"#$#%&
% $%'
2
0- ) 3
0 7 0 5 :/

G 0
+

05 7 !
(

E 7
!%3 :

20

*
0 5

%2

- ).

<

@

" 4
" 4
" 4

+

>

0 F 5
75
75

(

E 7
!%3 :

( (+
5
20
5
20

%2

(
2 C.

@
" 4
" 4
" 4

@@
0 F 5
- ).

05 7 !

( (+
75
20

2!

0 5 7 "7F. 4

!

20

!

5

20

5

@@
> @

3 ) ( :/

@@

>

3 :/

2 )* )(

25

5

:
3 7 00



(
5

; 05
!0 5 ) & ).

@ @
>@
@
@

> @

@

G 0

; 05
!0 5 ) & ).

@
>

@

@


3
J

@

:

#3

!"#$# #3
% $%
%&:
' :

@
@@:
K

3
J

@
@@ :
K

3
J

:
K

3
J

>
> @:
K

3
J

:
>K

3
J

>

3
J

@

:
K

3
J

>@>:
K

3
J

3 ::

@ >
:
@@K

@

@

!"#$#%&3
::

3
J @

@

>

:
K

>
> :
> >K

3
J

@

>
:
> K

>@

@

@@

:
K

3
J

:
K

3
J

@@ :
K

3
J

:
K

3
J

3
J

> :
K

3
J

@@:
> K

3
J

>@ :
>> K

3
J

@:
@ K

3
J

> @
@ @:
K

:
K

3
J

:
>K

3
J

:
K

% $%' 3
::

!

C. 0 7
"7F
C. 0 7
.4 C 0 7

3
J @
>
>

@
> >

@

@

%

C.
5
2 )* )( 7
"* * " !
5(D 0E !
7
7
# 7
7

=

>
>
> >@
@
@@
@

# 04
7. )
! - 0 5
2 * )( 7
2 * ) ( 7 37
7F. 7:
"* *
04
!0 0
5(D 0E !0 0

>

>
> >>

>
>

>
>
@

>

@ @
%

@
>>
> @

@
>

>@
@
@

@
@
>>
@@

@
@
>> >

?

-!

; 0
7

%

!"#$#%
&
>

> @>
@
@

>

@

>

>

>

>
@> @ >
>@ @
> @
@
@
> @
@

@
@
@

> @@
@

@

@
>
> >
>
>

>

>

>

@
>

>
>
@@
@

@
@ @

@>@

>
>

@ >
>

>
>
@
@
>

>
>
>

@
>

@
>

>

@
>

>

>
@

>

@@@
@

>
>
@

@ @
@
@@
@ >
@
@>
@
>
@
>
@ @
@
>

@

@
>> >
>>
@
>
>@ >
> @>
>
> >
> >
>
> @@
>
> @ @
> @
>
> @

@
>>
> @>

@
@
@

@
>

>
@ @

>

@@>

>

@
@

@

@

>

>

@

@ @
> > @ >
>
@
@ > @

@

>
@
@@
@>

>

@

@

@ >
@ >

@
>

>

@

>
@

@

>@
>
@

>

% $%'

> @
> @
>
@>
@ @

@
@
@
@
>
@
@
@
@
>
@
@
@@ >
@@
@
@
@>
>
@>
@>
>
>
@

> @
>
>@

> @ @
@>>
>@
@
@
>
@
@
>
> >>
>
@
>@
@
>>
@
> @
>
@
@
> @
>
@
@

@>
@

> @@
>
@
>
@>
> @
@

@
@>

@
>

>
> @
>
@

@
>

@
@

@
>

>
@
@
>

@
@