2.2.3. Brazilian Amazon
The impact of interregional drivers on land use change, especially in the Brazilian Amazon, is considered in several other works, and the historical
evolution of scenarios proposed hardly represents the actual situation of deforestation reduction since 2004. This does not invalidate the proposed
models by different authors, or the potential future scenarios described in each study, as policy regulation may lose its current presence and strength.
Scenarios proposed by Laurance et al. 2001 focus on the discussion on the effects of Avança Brasil Program Brasil, 1999, a National economic
development plan proposed by the Brazilian Government over the years 2000-2007, in which several infrastructure projects in the Amazon were
included. To calculate the impacts of new highways, railroads, gas pipelines, hydroelectric projects, power lines and river-channelization projects
described in the development program, Laurence et al., 1999 developed two scenarios for the future of Brazilian Amazon for the following twenty
years. They considered two scenarios, a “pessimistic”, which followed the deforestation rate at that time, and an “optimistic”, where deforestation and
forest degradation were reduced by several protection strategies. In both scenarios, the results show enormous changes in Amazon land cover,
especially in the “pessimistic”, where few areas of original forest remain Figure 6, Table 5.
Figure 6. The future of the Brazilian Amazon for two different scenarios by the year 2020 Laurence et al., 2001. Scenarios a optimistic and b pessimistic. Areas in black
show deforested or heavily degraded regions, red shows moderately degraded, yellow lightly degraded and green is pristine
Table 5. Predicted rates of deforestation and degradation Laurence, 2001
Optimistic scenario
Pessimist scenario
Deforestation 2,690 Km
2
per year 5,060 Km
2
per year Degraded moderately or
heavily 15,300 Km
2
per year 23,700 Km
2
per year
The contribution of protected areas to possible reductions in deforestation is addressed in Soares-Filho et al. 2010. In this work five scenarios for 2050
that consider the importance of protected areas were developed for the Brazilian Amazon: i exclusion of all current protected areas, ii all protected
areas created until 2002 iii protected areas established by 2008, except for 13 areas established in the 2003-2008 ARPA Amazon Protected Area
Program, iv protected areas created until 2008, v protected areas created until 2002 plus expansion underway with the support of the ARPA program.
These land cover scenarios with different distributions of protected areas were combined with two socioeconomic scenarios: high and moderate
agricultural growth. The first LUC scenario, with the drastic exclusion of all protected areas, produced a higher risk map of deforestation in those areas,
and the other four scenarios depict the progressive contribution of protected areas to a reduction in deforestation. Figure 7 shows the results of
deforestation and emissions for each of the protected areas scenarios.
Figure 7. Deforestation and carbon emissions in the Brazilian Amazon biome: average of two socioeconomic scenarios with four protected areas scenarios Soares-Filho et al.
2010.
The scenarios described in the studies by Laurence et al. 1999 and Soares- Filho et al. 2010 [and references therein], highlight the importance of
infrastructure projects and protected areas for the landscape dynamics in the Amazon. Nevertheless, other internal and external factors also modulate
and regulate land use
change and must be considered. For example, a recent study by the Brazilian Agriculture Ministry Brasil, 2012, which projected
scenarios for Brazilian agro-business for 2022, shows an expressive increase in agriculture production in the next years, with expected growth in internal
and external demand. This study projects an increase of 70,000km
2
in crop production area, mainly concentrated in beans 47,000km
2
and sugarcane 19,000km
2
. Considering these numbers, the pressure over forest areas could be enhanced.
Aguiar 2006 advances beyond intraregional drivers by also considering accessibility to markets and uses a dynamic spatial model to build different
exploration scenarios of LUCC until 2020. The scenarios proposed by Aguiar
2006, detailed in Table 6, highlight the importance of differences in market accessibility on determining drivers of land use change in the Brazilian
Amazon. The main conclusions drawn from these scenarios were: a connection to national markets is the most important factor for capturing
the spatial patterns of the new Amazonian deforestation frontiers; b intraregional dynamics are influenced by the interaction between
connectivity e.g. to local and national markets and other factors e.g. economic attractiveness, agrarian structure, environmental, where the
importance of determining factors vary across the Amazonia; c these differences led to heterogeneous impact of policies such as road paving,
creation of protected areas, law enforcement across the region. Together, the results of the five explorative scenarios presented in Table 6 are
complementary, helping to draw different aspects of the occupation process in the Brazilian Amazon.
Table 6. Scenario exploration summary of the LUCC adapted by Aguiar, 2006
Exploration Description Model
Scenarios Allocation Demand
Law enforcement
Alternative factors:
Accessibility In this
exploration, the focus is
on connectivity
factors. Considering
Roads No Change Baseline
No Considering
Roads No Change Baseline
No Considering
Roads No Change Baseline
No Alternative
factor: Local
markets The focus
here is on accessibility
to local markets.
Considering Roads
No Change Baseline No
Considering Urban
centers No Change Baseline
No
Policy analysis:
road paving and
protected areas
Here the public
policies that influence
intraregional conditions for
agricultural use, such as
road paving Considering
Roads Paving and
protection Baseline
No
Considering Urban
centers Paving and
protection Baseline
No
and the creation of
protected areas, are
considered
Policy analysis:
Law enforcements
Law enforcement
policies, such as
deforestation limits inside
private properties,
are considered
Considering Roads
No Change Baseline Private
reserves 50 local
command and control
Considering Roads
No Change Baseline
Market constraints
Analyzes scenarios of
increasing and
decreasing demand for
land in Amazonia,
corresponding to higher or
lower pressure for
forest conversion
determined by national
and international
agribusiness. Considering
Roads Paving and
protection Decrease No
Considering Roads
Paving and protection
Increase No
Considering Urban
centers Paving and
protection Decrease No
Considering Urban
centers Paving and
protection Increase
No
To investigate the impacts of biofuels production, in Southeast and Central regions of Brazil, and its cascade effects over agricultural and cattle
ranching frontiers Lapola et al. 2010 focused on market pressure for land use scenarios until 2020. The direct and indirect land use changes in
scenarios with and without biofuel expansion were then analysed. Lapola et al. suggested a displacement of pastureland and cattle production towards
the Brazilian Amazon, showing an expansion of 121,970 km
2
into the region.
Figure 8, extracted from this work, presents the difference between land use maps with and without the expansion of biofuel plantations in 2020.
Figure 8. Indirect land use changes caused by the fulfillment of Brazils biofuels production targets to 2020 adapted by Lapola et al. 2010.
2.2.4. National Level
Kategori