Figure 17 - Time series of level anomalies mmmonth of the Rio Negro at Manaus since 1903, for the peak season May-July. Anomalies are in relation to the 1902-2012
mean. Dry and wet years are shown in red and blue colors, respectively.
5. Conclusions and Policy Options
The synergistic combinations of local to regional climate impacts, due to deforestation, and global climate change, result in warmer and possibly
drier conditions in the Amazon basin. The forests recovery after an extreme dry event might take much longer than previous thought Saatchi et al,
2013; Choat et al, 2012, leading to an increased vulnerability if the frequency of these events increases in the future.
The loss of the Amazon forest, either by deforestation or in the long term through climate change, could have widespread regional impacts. A positive
feedback from the loss of forest could be expressed by further change in regional and global climate, which would further impact the forest.
Although there are no explicit results from integrative modeling of the effects of direct deforestation combined with climate change, there is
evidence that these two drivers of change in forest cover are unlikely to act independently of one another.
The Amazon is a mosaic of different environmental, political and socioeconomic interactions, compounding a complex and heterogeneous
region. This complexity requires wide analyzes which consider interactions between various factors involved in the processes. In this report, we have
explored several studies aiming to evaluate the impacts of alternative pathways for land use in the region and consequently the importance of
some drivers in land use change dynamics.
Among these drivers it is important to consider the interaction between intraregional factors, such as infrastructure projects, protected areas, law
enforcement, and external forces such as increases in demand for food and biofuels. The suit of drivers, within complex and local particular
arrangements, define different levels of uncertainties, related to land use change in each country and, consequently, in the region as a whole. It is
important that mechanisms to value the forest, its biodiversity and ecosystem services, are used by local and national financial and political
stakeholders. Mechanisms such as: Payment for Ecosystem Services PES; Investment in Natural Capital PINC-GCP; Reducing Emissions from
Deforestation and Forest Degradation, including the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon
stocks, REDD+ are important to be included and promoted in the policy agenda for the entire region. However these, and other mechanisms, need to
work in line with local communities and stakeholders - from indigenous people to caboclos, from small, family oriented, to medium scale agriculture;
from large scale agriculture and beef production to built-up infrastructure - investments need to be coupled with socio-ecological sustainable principles,
otherwise they are likely to fail.
These aspects affect local policy options, institutional arrangements and social opportunities in each country in the Amazon basin. We summarize
the main contrasting trends:
In Bolivia, Peru, Colombia and Ecuador the current published knowledge on LUCC patterns and dynamics does not have enough historical trend
analysis to allow further analysis on LUCC scenarios. Recent efforts of land use and cover change data generation for instance produced by RAISG,
2012: Terra-I, 2012 will improve the quantity and quality of information allowing the production of better LUCC scenarios. What is clear is that the
deforestation rates in Bolivia, Peru and Ecuador are increasing significantly in the past recent years less so in the case of Colombia. Despite the low or
recent production of land cover data, the studies cited in this report suggest that deforestation and land use change shall increase in the future.
Therefore, enhancing the economic value of local products and the promotion of sustainable land use mechanisms are key actions, and options
that could work to reduce poverty and maintain ecosystem services. Land tenure in these regions is also an issue to be urgently solved. The legal
support for landowners would help make land use and environment conservation policies more effective. Currently there is no view, in the short-
term, that climate change perspectives drive land use actions under such a social-political framework, however, considering current climate variation
as reviewed in this report, this should be strongly considered.
In Brazil, pressures for new productive areas in order to meet the demand for food and biofuel have progressively increased. This fact, associated with
the land market and timber industry, has caused a fast increase in deforestation rates in the Amazon in the past 30 years. In response to this
various measures were taken in order to reduce deforestation, resulting in a substantial decrease since 2004 so that in November 2012 the INPE 2012a
annual estimate of deforestation rate was estimated at 4656 km2. This rate is very close to what Brazil has set as target, for greenhouse gases emission
reduction until 2020, in the COP15 Copenhagen, 2009. However, the pressure over the forest is not dwindling, and different patterns of
deforestation and forest degradation are being observed in the region DEGRAD-INPE,
http:www.obt.inpe.brdegrad .
Thus, continuous efforts to secure compliance with environmental laws, but also on proposing innovative and economic sustainable production activities
for local communities are crucial. As in other Amazonian regions, the land tenure situation needs to be solved, as well as strategic definition of new
conservation areas as being suggested by some authors, and an integrative plan to develop economic activities in the region, to reduce poverty and
create new opportunities for instance valuating environmental services and biodiversity preservation.
Climate models outcomes need to be considered in policy and investment planning in the region. Public and private investment in infrastructure, as
hydropower reservoirs, paved roads, storage facilities for grains, saw-mils for timber production, slaughterhouses, and so on, need to consider the risks
of changing precipitation patterns and extreme events as mentioned in the climate component of this report. The example of Brazil highlights the need
for improvements in production arrangements and law enforcement in order to feed a growing demand through sustainable production in the whole
Amazon.
6. References
