7
1.6. Thesis Output
Several output of this research are: 1 A model simulation to support decision related to projection population and
to know spatial distribution pattern of urban growth in Bandung area. 2 Alternative maps based on scenario created to predict spatial distribution of
built-up area.
1.7. Thesis Structure
The thesis was organized into three chapters. The first chapter describes introduction chapter includes: 1 Background, 2 Research objective 3 Scope .
limitation and assumption of research 4 Time and study area of research, 5 General of Research Methodology, 6 Thesis Output and 7 Structure of Thesis
document. Generally, the result and analyze from this research activity are described in
chapter 2 and chapter 3. In the second chapter, analysis of markov chain change detection and driving forces of urban growth in Bandung area was analyzed and
discussed. Data processing using various statistics methods and spatial analysis technique in GIS have been applied to derive the data input into the development
model. Population projection and it’s relation with demand of built-up area, multicriteria evaluation of driving forces and determine of landuse conversion
priority using markov change detection were applied in this data processing and was used as an information and data input in system configuration and
development of urban growth simulation model. The Third chapter describes development of urban growth simulation
model, calibration and validation of the model. In this research, two scenarios were applied in urban growth cellular automata simulation model to calibrate the
model. Validation using accuracy assessments with error matrix and kappa coefficient were applied to validate the best of scenario result. Finally, general
conclusion and recommendation are drawn in fourth chapter as last chapter of this research.
9
II. ANALYSIS OF MARKOV CHANGE DETECTION AND
DRIVING FORCES OF URBAN GROWTH DEVELOPMENT IN BANDUNG AREA
DURING 1991 - 2007
2.1. Introduction
2.1.1. Background
Driving forces and constrains are the keys factors in the urban growth development context. Driving forces can be defined as causes or factors influence
for urban growth modeling. In this research, slope, road network, Neighbourhood effect and Urban Hierarchy Index were selected as a driving forces input in
modeling of urban growth development in Bandung Area. Whereas, protected forest, slope greater than 15 , open green space and water body were selected as
a constraints factor in this study area. Furthermore, trend of priority conversion between each landcover type into
built-up area during 1991 – 2007 in Bandung area was analyzed using markov
chain change detection technique. The analysis result from this processing were used as an information and data input in system configuration and development of
urban growth simulation model.
2.1.2. Objective
The objectives of this study is to define and analyze driving forces of urban growth and landcover priority conversion using markov chain change detection in
Bandung Area during 1991 - 2007.
2.2. Literature Review
2.2.1. Urban Growth and Urban Sprawl
Urban growth indicates a transformation of the vacant land or natural environment to the construction of urban fabrics including residential, industrial
and infrastructure development, it mostly happened in the fringe urban areas. Urban expansions are driven by population growth, social economic development.
Kategori