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IV. General Conclusion and Recommendation
4.1. Conclusion
From the foregoing result discussion, the following are some conclusion derived :
1 Markov chain change detection during 1991-2007 in Bandung area was done to analyze and detection trend probability conversion from Paddy field,
Plantation, shrub and forest into built up-area. The result was shown that the largest increase of built-up area for each year development is the result from
land conversion of paddy field into built-up area. Radial sprawl for built-up area development was impact to conversion from Paddy field to built-up area
and make paddy field as the highest weighted for landcover priority conversion to built-up area.
2 Extraction driving forces and constraint information has been done using multi- criteria evaluation to derive weighted factors for urban development. Based on
the result of weighted calculation, neighbourhood effect is the most important influence factors in built-up area development during 1991
– 2000 in study area. The weighted was contributing 48 for urban development. This
condition was agreed with the theory, urban development usually takes place first in the adjacent area to the developed built-up area.
3 Integration of GIS and Cellular Automata was proved very efficient in simulating the urban growth simulation over time. Two scenarios have been
implemented in this simulation model. In the first scenario, driving forces and constrained factors slope 15, protected forest, open green space and water
body as an input in the model simulation. Whereas, the second scenario is the simulation model was running without slope effect in model input. Khat
Coefficient for first and Second scenario in 1991 – 2000 simulation model is
for about 76,80 and 82,66 respectively, whereas in 2000 – 2007 is for
about 76,26 and 79,27 respectively. Base on the result, second scenario is the best to be applying in model simulation and can be used to predicting urban
growth simulation. This scenario will be reduces the impact of the mismatched
70 cells on both the producer’s and user’s accuracies for the built-up area
development and making the simulation accuracies more realistic to reflect the actual performance of the model.
4 The result from urban development simulation in 2015 and 2030, shows that urban development in Bandung Area will continue in two ways: one is through
the in-filling of areas within the currently existing urban in Cimahi and Bandung City, and another is through expanding toward the southeast of the
areas.
4.2. Recommendation
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