Figure 4.9. Comparison of projected and calculated previous maximum flooded area
4.3.5. Projection Until The End of Long Term Development Plan
As the result to be accordance with development planning, the time of projection inundated area that made has in line with development planning.
Former data shows that sea level has been increase linearly by the time and predicting will continuous increase in the future.. Based on that assumption, sea
level until the end of long term development planning RPJPRencana Pembangunan Jangka Panjang of Semarang City can be predicted. In next ten
year 2021, real sea level value will reach 79.956 cm above zero, in next fifty
2.98 4.01
4.48
2.91 3.42
4.20
year 2026 will reach 92.632 cm above zero and in next twenty year 2031 will reach 105.308 cm above zero. All land area near coastline will affecting by this
rise in term of flooding. Land area that lower than 79.956 cm will be converting into submergence area in next 10 year, land area that lower than 92.632 cm will
be converting into submergence area in next 15 year and, land area that lower than 105.308 cm will be converting into submergence area in next 20 year. The
illustration of projected inundated area in 10, 15 and 20 years to go can be seen in figure 4.10
Figure 4.10. Projecting submergence area in next 10, 15 and 20 years from now
The impact of submergence area in projected year will be huge because more than 690 Ha of settlement will be totally covered by seawater in 2021, more than
887 Ha in 2026, and more than 1,549 Ha in 2031. So that with ±649 Ha of building and it surrounding that will covered permanently in 2021, ±846 Ha in
2026 and ±857 Ha in 2031. That just the landuse which utilized by human primarily, not secondarily to fulfill their need. Complete properties that will be
covered permanently by sea water in next 10, 15, and 20 years can be seen in table 4.6.
Table 4.6. Properties that affecting by sea level rises in next 10, 15 and 20 years
LANDUSE TYPE PERMANENTLY
COVERED IN
2021 Ha PERMANENTLY
COVERED IN
2026 Ha PERMANENTLY
COVERED IN
2031 Ha
Pond 56.931
70.330 70.828
Freshwater Pond 19.422
30.047 26.695
Shrub 1.007
3.427 4.067
Embankment 1963.705
2189.845 2261.841
Building 649.750
839.375 849.582
Estuary forest 4.382
4.382 4.382
Planting Area 6.603
11.863 16.586
Settlement 690.709
887.013 1041.101
Marsh 1.441
7.689 11.876
Grassland 144.079
185.738 196.264
Irrigated Farming Area 83.595
116.255 133.112
Moor 5.444
11.367 17.199
ROAD TYPE PERMANENTLY
COVERED IN
2021 m PERMANENTLY
COVERED IN
2026 m PERMANENTLY
COVERED IN
2031 m
Bridge 337.669
372.875 372.875
Flying Bridge 36.282
109.393 109.393
Collector Road 0.000
0.000 0.000
Other Type of Road 3550.602
4237.698 10474.163
Local Road 209000.660
265832.597 301876.894
National Road 2645.821
5214.808 5374.192
Footpath 5440.494
6157.219 6366.315
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