55
3.4.2. Population Projection and Land demand for Built-up Area
Population projection and land demand for built-up area are the first steps in model simulation that must be calculate. Actual condition in year 2000 used as a
baseline in this research, for simulation and prediction population projection in Bandung Area. Base on Bandung statistical book in year 2000, amount of
Population in Bandung area is 6.294.961 people and average of Growth rate in this area is 2,4 year.
Geometric method used in this research to predict population projection, which assume growth of population in Bandung area is constant
for each year. Equation 3.1 was applied to predict population projection in study area which
amount of population in 2000 as base year’s population and average of growth rate is 2.4 .
Table 3.3 Data input to Predict Land Demand for Settlement Area. Criteria
Year’s Source of Data Input
Population Data 1991,1997,2000 and 2007 Bandung Official Statistical
years Book’s
Settlement Area 1991 and 1997
Derived from Landsat TM Imagery in 1991 and 1997.
2000 Topographical Map RBI in
Bandung Area from Bakosurtanal.
2007 Landuse Map in Bandung
Area from BPN and classified from spot 5
imagery in 2007.
Actually, the increase of population will be followed by the increase of land demand for built up area. Linier Regression and correlation methods used in this
research to get relation between the increases of population growth and land demand for built up area. In this methods, built up area used as dependent variable
– x and population data used as independent variable – y. Table 3.3. showing the data input to predict land demand for built up area using linier regression and
correlation methods.
56 Base on the calculation result in Table 3.3, trend of Population density in
Bandung area is increase for each year. These phenomena shown that the increase of population will be followed by the increase of built up area, in the other hand
requirement for 1 Ha built-up area will be occupied by over populated. This condition will be affected overcrowding population for each 1 Ha in the future
years. Table 3.4 Built up area, Population and Density in 1991, 1997, 2000 and 2007
Criteria Year’s
1991 1997
2000 2007
Built up Area Ha 33.382
35.243 36.861
38.437 Population People
4.888.439 5.296.500
6.294.961 7.439.622
DensityPeopleHa 146
150 171
194
Relation between the increase of population and built up area based on data input in Table 3.4 was shown in Figure 3.9. This relation used to predict
demand of settlement area for the future years based on population projection simulation.
Figure 3.9 Relation between The Increase of Population and Built-up Area
57 The calculation result by using liner regression method was get equation
between increase of population and built up area , where prediction of demand for settlement area for the future years y and population projection x was described
by formula y = 0,0019x + 24903. Determinant coefficient R
2
from this formula is 0,946 and correlation is 0,97. This relation is significant enough to describe
relation between the increase of population and built up area and can be used to predict and simulate demand for built-up area as an effect from the increase of
population.
3.4.3. Logical Framework and Program flow
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