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II. ANALYSIS OF MARKOV CHANGE DETECTION AND
DRIVING FORCES OF URBAN GROWTH DEVELOPMENT IN BANDUNG AREA
DURING 1991 - 2007
2.1. Introduction
2.1.1. Background
Driving forces and constrains are the keys factors in the urban growth development context. Driving forces can be defined as causes or factors influence
for urban growth modeling. In this research, slope, road network, Neighbourhood effect and Urban Hierarchy Index were selected as a driving forces input in
modeling of urban growth development in Bandung Area. Whereas, protected forest, slope greater than 15 , open green space and water body were selected as
a constraints factor in this study area. Furthermore, trend of priority conversion between each landcover type into
built-up area during 1991 – 2007 in Bandung area was analyzed using markov
chain change detection technique. The analysis result from this processing were used as an information and data input in system configuration and development of
urban growth simulation model.
2.1.2. Objective
The objectives of this study is to define and analyze driving forces of urban growth and landcover priority conversion using markov chain change detection in
Bandung Area during 1991 - 2007.
2.2. Literature Review
2.2.1. Urban Growth and Urban Sprawl
Urban growth indicates a transformation of the vacant land or natural environment to the construction of urban fabrics including residential, industrial
and infrastructure development, it mostly happened in the fringe urban areas. Urban expansions are driven by population growth, social economic development.
10 Shenghe and Sylvia, 2002. It has always been the focus of the social economic
debates due to its impacts on social economic aspects as well as the impacts on the huge consumption of cultivated lands and damage to the environmental
sustainability. Urban sprawl, also known as suburban sprawl, is the spreading of a city and
its suburbs over rural land at the fringe of an urban area. Sprawl generally infers to the increase in built-up and paved area with impacts such as loss of agricultural
land, open space, and ecologically sensitive habitats. Also, sometimes sprawl is equated with growth of town or city radial spread. In simpler words, as
population increases in an area or a city, the boundary of the city expands to accommodate the growth; this expansion is considered as sprawl. Sprawl also
takes place on the urban fringe or the peri-urban region, at the edge of an urban area or along the highways Sudhira et al., 2004a.
Sprawl development consists of three basic spatial forms: low-density radial sprawl, ribbon and leapfrog development Barnes et al., 2001. Radial
sprawl is the consumptive use of land for urban purposes along the margins of existing areas. This type of sprawl was supported by piece meal extensions of
basic urban infrastructures such as water, sewer, power, and roads. Ribbon sprawl is development that follows major transportation corridors outward from urban
cores. In this case, lands adjacent to corridors are developed, but those without direct access remain in rural usescovers. Over time these nearby “raw” lands
maybe be converted to urban uses as land values increase and infrastructure is extended perpendicularly from the major roads and lines. The leapfrog
development is a discontinuous pattern of urbanization, with patches of developed lands that are widely separated from each other and from the boundaries, albeit
blurred in cases, of recognized urbanized areas Barnes et al., 2001. This form of development is the most costly with respect to providing urban services such as
water and sewerage. Figure 2.1 shows the different forms of sprawl.
11 Radial Sprawl Ribbon Sprawl Leapfrog Sprawl
Figure 2.1 Form of Sprawl In industrialized countries the future growth of urban populations will be
comparatively modest since their population growth rates are low and over 80 of their population already live in urban areas. Conversely, developing countries
are in the middle of the transition process, when growth rates are highest. The exceptional growth of many urban agglomerations in many developing countries
is the result of a threefold structural change process: the transition away from agricultural employment, high overall population growth, and increasing
urbanization rates Grubler, 1994. Mapping and quantification of urban sprawl provides a picture of location of
sprawl, type and patterns of sprawl, which helps to identify the environmental and natural resources threatened by such sprawls. Analysing the sprawl over a period
of time will help in understanding the nature and growth of this phenomenon and thereby visualizing the likely scenarios of future sprawl Sudhira et al., 2004a.
2.2.2. Urban Growth Driving Forces and Constraints