Reputation, trust and the problem of transition economies

category. Economics is essentially seen as the ‘science of happiness’ whose funda- mental target was to provide an answer to the question, ‘what should I do to be happy?’. So much so that evens the titles of the books of most of the first economists reveal such preoccupation. Think of Ludovico Muratori’s Della felicita` pubblica on public happiness, 1749; Giuseppe Palmieri’s Riflessioni sulla pubblica felicita` Reflections on public happiness, 1805; Pietro Verri’s Discorso sulla felicita` Discourse on happiness, 1763. The same is true of Antonio Genovesi 1754, Maupertius, Quesnay, Turgot, Condorcet, Sismondi, David Hume and especially Adam Smith 6 . As it is well known from the history of economic thought, it is only with the ‘marginalistic revolution’ that the category of utility completely superseded that of happiness within economic discourse see, e.g. Screpanti and Zamagni, 1994. Since then, economics managed to be referred to as the ‘dismal science’.

5. Reputation, trust and the problem of transition economies

Finally, I come to a fourth form of reductionism in present-day economic analysis, which I consider rather disturbing, the reduction of trust to the category of reputation. This is to say that the modern explanation of trust is mostly rendered in terms of the value of reputation. What I find inadequate in such a conceptualisa- tion is the fact that, whereas reputation is an asset, which can be accumulated and deaccumulated according to rational calculus, trust is basically a relation between agents. To better appreciate the difference, let me refer to a most startling paradox characterising the present phase of structural change, in spite of the apparent atomisation of post-industrial economies, this epoch needs more, not less, collective decision processes; more, and not less, co-operative efforts. Indeed, as the new political economy has convincingly demonstrated, at the bottom of each market failure we find the market inability to produce co-operative results, which are the effect of the presence within the economic system of significant and solid networks of trust. In a well known essay, Arrow writes ‘One can plausibly maintain that most of the world’s backwardness can be explained by the lack of mutual trust’ Arrow 1972 7 . The reasoning underlying this proposition is simply that development demands high levels of Cupertino and the latter, in turn, implies deep trust ties among economic agents. The strong connection between trust and development opportunities has been ascertained at the empirical level too. Suffice here to mention Robert Putnam’s accurate research updating results obtained by Harvard political scientists, and the conclusions reached by S. Knack and P. Keefer, on 6 It is interesting to note that the November 1997 issue of The Economic Journal, hosted a symposium on ‘Economics and Happiness’, with contributions by H. Dixon, A.J. Oswald, R.H. Frank, Y. Ng. 7 See also Coleman 1990 and the most interesting contribution by Dasgupta. I should point out that the Italian word for trust is fiducia, which comes from the Latin word fides meaning ‘chord’, the chord which unites two or more entities. behalf of the World Bank, in the connection between the degree of trust in personal relations and private investment. As expected, the authors find that most countries with an above-average level of trust also present investments at higher levels than anticipated Knack and Keefer, 1995. To sum up, one can safely state that market is an institution resting essentially upon trust, which means that trust must already be in existence before a market economy can start its functioning. In all societies there evolves an informal network to structure interpersonal relations. The fabric of this framework is essentially made up of relations of trust, which, in a sense, provides a sort of common language for encoding and interpreting the information for the agents. If so, the question is raised, which conditions should be met for an economic system to generate and improve trust relations? It is the case that civil society is the privileged locus where trust dispositions are fostered; not so the market directly which is rather a ‘trust-consumer’, not a ‘trust-producer’. Indeed, the two funda- mental elements of trust — mutual acknowledgement of identities and engagement not to cheat nor betray even when they are feasible at no cost — cannot be generated via a reputational mechanism, since they must be offered initially as ‘free gifts’ by the agents involved when the market process starts. If this were not so, people would never enter agreements that are not fully enforceable 8 . This is why it is misleading and scientifically unproductive to reduce trust to reputation, since it would prevent economic research from inquiring about the strategies to be followed in order to reach that critical threshold of generalised trust among agents beyond which the market can subsequently act both as a reputation control device and as a reputation enhancing structure. In order to show the relevance and the pertinence of the remarks above to a field of study such as that of structural analysis 9 let me refer to some problems plaguing transition economies. Indeed, firms operating in such a context face a dilemma unknown to those operating in a market economy that is already in existence, betting or not betting on the positive outcome of the transition process. As it is well known, during the transition phase a drastic change of property rights and of the rules of economic game inevitably occur and such a change might start up a viable and sustainable set of new institutions, but it might also chaotically degenerate. If 8 It may be of interest to report the following passage from an interview to Peter Drucker, ‘‘Above all, we are learning very fast that the belief that the free market is all it takes to have a functioning society — or even a functioning economy — is pure delusion. Unless there’s first a functioning civil society the market can produce economic results for a very short time — may be 3 or 5 years. For anything beyond these 5 years a functioning civil society — based on organisations like churches, independent universi- ties, or peasant co-operatives — is needed for the market to function in its economic role, let alone its social role’’ Ottawa Citizen, December 31st, 1996. For a thorough investigation of the difference between trust and reputation, see Bruni and Sudgen 2000. See also the most interesting contribution by Porta and Scazzieri 1997. 9 On the semantics of the expression ‘structural economic dynamics’ see Porta 1998, who uses the phrase ‘invariant synchronism’ to characterise structural analysis. See also the contributions in Baranzini and Scazzieri 1993. the first horn of the dilemma will eventually hold and firms conjecture that this will be the case, they will invest and, more generally, will behave in such a way as to find themselves, at the end of the process, on an expanding and progressive path. On the contrary, if firms conjecture the second horn of the dilemma will hold, the optimal strategy for them will be to dismantle firms’ assets. It should be noticed that the convenience of these strategic options does not only depend on the choice of individual firms. If the majority of them behave in a ‘responsible’ way, a critical mass will be reached sufficient to ensure the emergence of a viable productive network making investment an attractive option. On the other hand, if mistrust about the outcome of the transition process gets generalised, firms will choose the disruptive option, i.e. to dismantle the assets ‘inherited’. It may so happen that, within the same universe of objective possibilities in terms of resources, educational level of population, technological know-how and the like, the ultimate result depends upon the predominance of one culture over the other and upon the particular mechanism through which cultural patterns get diffused among people. The specific nature of the ‘tragedy’ of transition economies lies in the following apparent paradox, in spite of the fact that it is in everybody’s interest that transition to a market-type society gets obtained, the cultural matrix prevailing in the society and the nature of social dynamics of individual behaviours might be such that multiple equilibria exist that can take the economy in many directions, including decline.

6. In lieu of a conclusion

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