Monetary Indicators and Policy Q2-2010

Turmoil on global financial markets during Q22010 came in consequence to the worsening of the fiscal crisis in Greece. Downgraded ratings for PIIGS nations and weakening indicators for Europe’s economic fundamentals set off a round of panic on global financial markets. To calm the turmoil, European governments and the IMF announced an aid package for Greece. The combination of positive sentiment over economic recovery and fears over the crisis in Europe set off a round of exchange rate turmoil in Asia that lasted throughout Q22010. To resolve this, some central banks launched intervention actions that calmed the volatility in exchange rates. At home, a key factor in the appreciation of the rupiah is the positive showing of the domestic economy. Subdued inflation, quarterly GDP growth in Q12010 at 5.7 yoy and the positive outcomes in Indonesia’s balance of payments have helped rein in the effects of negative sentiments driven by external conditions. This positive performance is also reflected in rising foreign confidence, demonstrated in Moody’s decision to upgrade the rating outlook for Indonesia. Foreign investor confidence improved, as reflected in more positive perceptions of domestic risks. The Credit Default Swap CDS indicator for Indonesia remained low in line with the declining levels recorded in other risk indicators, namely yield spread between Indonesian government bonds and US T-Notes Graph 3.3. At the same time, the swap premium an indicator of expected direction of movement in the rupiah maintained stable movement in all tenors Graph 3.4. The improvement in domestic risks has bolstered the attractiveness of rupiah-denominated investments. Rupiah returns, reflected in the level of Uncovered Interest Parity UIP at 6.07, are still the highest compared to other countries in Asia Graph 3.5. When the improvement in the risk premium is taken into account, investment in the rupiah becomes even more attractive, as reflected in the rising trend in Covered Interest Parity CIP indicator so far in 2010. At the end of June 2010, the CIP indicator eased slightly to 3.88, but continued to outperform similar indicators in Korea, the Philippines and Malaysia Graph 3.6. INFLATION Inflationary pressure mounted during Q22010 with non- fundamentals coming into play as a result of supply shocks and problems with distribution of volatile food commodities. Graph 3.2 Rupiah Exchange Rate Volatility ������ ����� ����� ����� ����� ����� ����� ���� ���� ���� ���� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� � �� � � � � � � � � � ����� ���� ������������������ ���������������������� ������������� ���� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ���� ��� Graph 3.4 Swap Premium in Various Tenors ���������� ���������� ���������� ����������� � �� �� �� � � ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ���� ���� ��������������������������� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ���� ��� ��� ��� Graph 3.3 Risk Perception Indicators � ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ����������� ����������� ������������������ ������ ������������ ������������� ������������������ ������ ������ ������ ������ ������ ������ ������ ������ Monetary Policy Report - Quarter II-2010 16 Measured annually, CPI inflation in Q22010 came to 5.05 yoy, up from the preceding quarter’s level of 3.43 yoy Graph 3.7. In June 2010, CPI inflation was recorded at 0.97 mtm, up in comparison to preceding months with 0.15 recorded for May and -0.14 for April 2010. The higher CPI inflation in Q22010 compared to one quarter earlier was fuelled mainly from pressure in the volatile foods category. Declining production of major food stuff commodities, such as seasonings and rice, compounded by disruptions in some distribution channels caused by adverse weather conditions, has spurred increases in volatile foods inflation compared to earlier periods. During the quarter under review, volatile foods inflation reached 4.61 qtq or 11.51 yoy, up significantly from 1.83 qtq or 4.41 yoy one quarter earlier. Disaggregated by category of expenditure, inflationary pressure during Q12010 came mainly from the foodstuffs category Graph 3.8. Rising inflation in this category was spurred by supply shocks for some food items, most importantly miscellaneous seasonings. Falling production for red chilli peppers and shallots prompted high levels of inflation for the two commodities. Supply shocks were also exacerbated by disruptions to supplies in some regions caused by heavy rains. These two commodities accounted for an 0.35 qtq and 0.07 qtq contribution to inflation. In the case of garlic, steep price increases during the period under review were driven by reduced imports from China. Most of Indonesia’s garlic 90 is imported, and this in the absence of a policy to improve the supply of garlic, upward pressure on garlic prices could potentially last a considerable time. Disaggregation of Inflation Core inflation was kept at subdued levels during Q22010. The supporting factors of subdued inflation expectations, the appreciating exchange rate and adequate supply-side response kept core inflation subdued at a modest level. In response to these developments, core inflation was recorded at 0.68 qtq in Q22010, down from the previous quarter’s level of 0.89 qtq. Measured annually, core inflation came to 3.97 yoy, having climbed from 3.56 yoy one quarter earlier. This rise is explained by a surge in core inflation near the end of Q22010, namely in June. This development resulted from mounting international Graph 3.6 CIP for Countries in the Region ��������� ����������� �������� ����� ���� ���� ���� ���� � ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ���� ���� ���� ���� ��� ��� ��� ��� ������ ������ ��� ��� ������ ���� ���� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ������ ��� ���� ������ ��� Graph 3.7 Inflation �� �� �� � �� �� ������ ��� ���������������� ������������� ������������������ � � � � � � � � � ������ � � � � � � � � � ������ � � � � � � � � � ���� ���� ���� �� � � � ���� ���� � � � Graph 3.5 UIP for Countries in the Region ���� � ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ���� ��������� ����������� �������� ����� ���� ���� ���� ���� ��� ������ ��������� ������ ��� ��������� ���� ���� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ������ ��� ���� ������ ��� Monetary Indicators and Policy Q2-2010 17 gold prices followed by increased supply of the commodity on the domestic market and a temporary weakening in the rupiah exchange rate Graph 3.9. This was also reflected in inflation indicators, including the mounting inflation in imported commodities and the import wholesale price index Graph 3.10. More buoyant economic growth and appreciation in the exchange rate have had a positive effect on inflation expectations. This is borne out in the results of the Consensus Forecast CF survey in June 2010, which point to a downward trend in inflation expectations for 2010. In 2011, expectations of inflation are set to edge upwards Graph 3.11. The Consumer Survey also points to subdued consumer expectations of inflation Chart 3.12. Concerning the output gap, more vigorous demand was still met by adequate supply-side response. Pressure from the output gap on inflation has thus been kept at a minimal level. Demand is still forecasted to rise in keeping with the strengthening performance of the domestic economy. This is borne out in the findings of the Retail Sales Survey, which report steady positive growth from Q32009 to the period under review Graph 3.13. In other developments, supply-side indicators reflected in the manufacturing production index showed a rising trend Graph 3.14. This is consistent with capacity utilisation in manufacturing, which is also on an upward trend Graph 3.15. Volatile foods inflation became a dominant factor driving up CPI inflation during Q22010. Falling production of red chilli peppers and shallots and reduced imports of garlic from China contributed to the inflationary spike in volatile foods. In addition to the effect of miscellaneous seasonings, higher rice prices during Q22010 resulted in an 0.06 contribution to inflation. Rice prices were up due to falling production caused by harvest and distribution bottlenecks. Nevertheless, the smooth distribution of subsidised rice for the poor Raskin helped prevent further increases in prices for rice. In the administered prices category, inflationary pressure during Q22010 was minimal due to the absence of strategic policy decisions. The inflation contribution from this category is explained mainly by higher cigarette prices with clove cigarettes up 0.06. The comparatively smooth operation of the household fuel conversion programme also helped to curb inflation in this category. According to data from Pertamina, the conversion programme Graph 3.9 Inflation of Trading Partner Countries and Exchange Rate ����������������������������� ��������������������������������������� ������������������������������� �� � ������ �� �� �� � � �� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ���� ���� � � � � � � � � � ������ � � � � � � � � � ������ � � � � � � � � � ������ � � � � � � � � � ������ � � � � � � � � � ������ � � � � � � Graph 3.10 Imported Commodies Inflation, Core Inflation, and WPI Imports �� ������ �� �� � � �� �������������� ���������������������������� ��������������������������� �� �� �� � ��� �� � � � � � � � � � ������ � � � � � � � � � ������ � � � � � � � � � ������ � � � � � � � � � ������ � � � � � � � � � ������ � � ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ������ � � � � Graph 3.8 Inflation by Category ���� ���� ���� ���� ��� ��� ��� ���� ���� ������ ���� ������� ������ ����������������������������� ��������������������� �������������� �������� ������������������������� ����� � � � � � � � � � ������ � � � � � � � � � ������ � � � � � � � � � ���� ���� ���� ���� ��� �� � � � ���� � � � Monetary Policy Report - Quarter II-2010 18 forged greater progress compared to earlier months without encountering major obstacles. During the period under review, inflation in administered prices reached 0.57 q-t-q, having eased from the previous quarter’s inflation recorded at 0.71 qtq. MONETARY POLICY Interest rates The monetary policy stance transmitted smoothly through the interbank rate channel in various tenors. During Q22010, the overnight interbank rate maintained stable movement at round the BI Rate with a daily average at 6.14, down 4 bps from the preceding quarter 6.18. As a result, the average relative spread between the overnight interbank rate and the BI Rate during Q22010 moved upwards to 66.5 compared to 63.6 one quarter earlier. With the introduction of the 17 June 2010 regulation on widening the interbank overnight rate corridor from +- 50 bps to +-100 bps, the weighted average overnight interbank rate dipped to 5.98 in response to a reduction in the FASBI discount to 5.5, but subsequently recovered. At the end of Q22010 the overnight interbank rate closed at 6.25 Graph 3.16. Like the movement in the overnight interbank rate, average rates in longer interbank tenors edged upwards at end Q22010 compared to the preceding quarter. This rise in interbank rates is consistent with the current level of the BI Rate and is more the result of BI efforts to bring movement in the interbank overnight rate to around the BI Rate level near the end of the period. In early Q22010, average interbank rates in above 30 day tenors came down significantly due to high levels of excess short-term banking liquidity Graph 3.17. Monetary policy transmission continued to operate through the deposit channel, despite slowing in Q22010. Deposit rates in various tenors came down 12 bps during Q22010, a more modest rate of decline compared to the 57 bps drop in the preceding quarter. The deposit rate structure improved further in early Q22010 compared to the end of the preceding quarter in keeping with the more modest decline in longer tenor deposit rates. In response, the 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24-month time deposit rates fell in early Q22010 to 6.89, 6.98, 7.14, 8.24 and 8.33 average 7.52. In analysis by category of bank, the steepest decline in time deposit rates took place at foreign and joint venture banks. During Q22010, foreign and joint venture banks lowered Graph 3.12. Consumers’ Inflation Expectation Bank Indonesia Consumers Survey ����� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� � � � � � � � � � ������� � � � � � � � � ������� � � � � � � � � ������� � � � � � � � � ������� � � � � � � � � ������� � � �� �� �� � � ����������������������������������������� ����������������������������������������� �������������������������� � � � � Graph 3.13. Real Sales Growth �� �� �� �� � �� ��� ��� � � � � � � � � ������� � � � � � � � � �������� � � � � � � � ������� � � � � � � � � ������� � � � � � � � � � ������� ��������������������������������� ��������������������������������� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� � � � � � Graph 3.11 Inflation Expectations – Consensus Forecast ������ � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �� �� �� � � � � ��������������������������� ���� ���� �������������������������� �������������������������� � � � ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� Monetary Indicators and Policy Q2-2010 19 deposit rates by 20 bps. Despite this, at the end of Q22010, state-owned banks are thought to have slashed interest rates more aggressively, surpassing cuts by other bank categories. As a result, the lowest time deposit rates in early Q22010 were recorded for state-owned banks 7.09, followed by foreign and joint venture banks 7.13. Private banks and regional development banks, on the other hand, continued to offer higher deposit rates at 8.01 and 8.51. Monetary policy was also transmitted more smoothly through the lending rate channel. In disaggregation by category of use, loan interest rates were down in all categories investment credit, working capital credit and consumption credit, a development that prompted more generous lending in the working capital and investment categories. The steepest reductions in loan interest rates were recorded for working capital credit, a development pointing to improved bank perceptions of economic risk. On the other hand, consumption credit rates recorded the least decline, being less elastic to changes in interest rates. Measured in overall terms, rates for working capital credit, investment credit and consumption credit came down by 12, 10 and 8 bps in early Q22010 to 13.42, 12.62 and 15.34. At the end of the quarter, loan interest rates were expected to see further decline. Loan interest rates recorded their steepest decline at foreign and joint venture banks. Rates offered by these banks were 25 bps down in early Q22010 compared to the end of the preceding quarter. In contrast, state-owned and private banks lowered their rates by only 10 bps and 6 bps over the same period. Interest Rate Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Quarter II-2009 Quarter III-2009 Table 3.1 Interest Rate Movements BI Rate 7.50 7.25 7.00 6.75 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 Deposit Guarantee 7.75 7.75 7.50 7.25 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 1-month Deposit Weighted Average 9.04 8.77 8.52 8.31 7.94 7.43 7.38 7.16 6.87 7.09 6.93 6.77 6.89 n.a n.a 1-month Deposit Counter Rate 7.72 7.64 7.44 7.30 7.17 7.00 6.92 6.85 6.81 6.75 6.71 6.66 6.60 6.54 6.55 Base Lending Rate 13.78 13.64 13.40 13.20 13.00 13.07 12.96 12.94 12.83 12.65 12.66 12.65 12.62 12.58 12.50 Working Capital Credit 14.82 14.68 14.52 14.45 14.30 14.17 14.09 13.96 13.69 13.75 13.68 13.54 13.42 n.a n.a Investment Credit 14.05 13.94 13.78 13.58 13.48 13.2 13.12 13.03 12.96 13.24 13.21 12.72 12.62 n.a n.a Consumption Credit 16.48 16.57 16.63 16.66 16.62 16.67 16.53 16.47 16.42 16.32 16.36 15.42 15.34 n.a n.a Quarter IV-2009 Quarter I-2010 Quarter II-2010 Graph 3.14 Manufacturing Production Index SP-BI ��� ��� ��� �� � � � � � � � � ������� � � � � � � � � �������� � � � � � � � ������� � � � � � � � � ������� � � � � � � � � ������� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ��������������������������� �� �� ���� Graph 3.15 Manufacturing Capacity Utilisation SP ����� �� �� �� �� ��� � ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� � � � � � � � � � ������� � � � � � � � � ������� � � � � � � � ��� ����� � � � � � � � ��� ���� � � � � � � � � ��� ����� � � � Monetary Policy Report - Quarter II-2010 20 Funds, Credit and the Money Supply Funding growth in Q22010 was slow in comparison to the accelerating pace of credit expansion. In April 2010, growth in depositor funds reached 11.2 yoy, hardly changed from the previous quarter’s expansion of 11.0 yoy. As a result, the funding position for 2010 until April widened by only Rp 7.4 trillion to Rp 1,980.5 trillion. This minimum rate of growth is consistent with the annual pattern in bank funding, which tends to slow at the beginning of the year. Indications suggest that funding growth is being driven more by added funds in demand deposits. This points to a general rise in public economic activity during Q22010. Policy transmission through the credit channel showed positive developments during Q22010. That quarter, credit growth including channelling reached an indicated 18.6 yoy, ahead of 10.7 yoy at the end of the preceding quarter Graph 3.18. In response, credit expansion in early Q22010 April 2010 came to Rp 45.2 trillion 3.1, ytd. This represented better performance compared to credit expansion in 2009 and 2007, and indications now even suggest that credit expansion this year may be on par with the expansionary credit growth recorded in 2008. Improvement in monetary policy transmission through the credit channel was observed on both the demand side and supply side. On the demand side, the more robust condition of the domestic economy has buoyed demand for credit. However, in regard to the supply of credit in the banking system, one factor contributing to increased lending is the steady decline downward movement in loan interest rates. The more rapid pace of credit expansion compared to funding growth is a positive indication of improvement in the bank intermediary function in support of the real sector. In analysis by category of use, investment credit and working capital credit charted positive growth while consumption credit remained stable. In April 2010, consumption credit growth still contributed the leading share of total credit growth with expansion at 28.2 yoy, a stable level when compared to the end of the preceding quarter 27.8, yoy. By comparison, investment credit growth in early Q22010 reached 17.9 yoy, up from the previous end-quarter level of 13.1 yoy. Growth in working capital credit climbed to 5.4 Graph 3.17 Interbank Rate in Various Tenors � � � ��� � ��� � ��� ��� �������� ������ ��������� ���������� ��������� ������ ������ ������ ������ � ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ����������������������� Graph 3.18 Funding, Credit Growth, and BI Rate �� ���������� �� �� �� �� �� �� �� �� �� � � � �� ����������� ��� � ��� � ��� � ��� � ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ���� ���� ���� ���� ������������ ������� ��� �������������������� Graph 3.16 Interbank ON Rate Monetary Instrument � ��� � ��� � ��� � � � � � � � � ������� ������������������� ��������� �������� � � �� �� �� ��� � � �� �� ��� ��� �� �� �� ��� � �� �� �� ��� � � �� �� ��� �� � �� �� �� ��� � �� �� �� ��� � �� �� �� ��� �� � �� �� �� ��� � �� �� �� ��� � � �� �� ��� �� ���� ���� Monetary Indicators and Policy Q2-2010 21 yoy from the previous 1.9 yoy at the end of the previous quarter Graph 3.19. At the sectoral level, loan disbursements to the miscellaneous sector retained their dominant role. The increased lending to the miscellaneous sector is consistent with the rise in consumption credit. The mining, social services, transportation and electricity, gas and water utility sectors charted remarkably high growth 24-82, yoy, while trade and manufacturing are expected to strengthen further due to improvement in domestic and external economic conditions. In disaggregation by currency, rupiah lending was the major component in credit growth during Q22010. These developments reflect a prevailing expansion in credit for financing economic activity in the real sector. Monetary policy transmission through the liquidity channel and particularly M1 was slower in response to the high volume of tax payments. At 8.3 yoy, growth in M1 economic liquidity in early Q22010 April was down in comparison to the previous quarter’s average of 12.1 Graph 3.20. The slowdown in M1 resulted specifically from a drop in private sector demand deposits related to the deadline for corporate tax payments in April 2010. At the same time, government-held demand deposits also narrowed significantly, an indication of more rapid growth in local government expenditures compared to past years. M2 growth maintained an upward trend in keeping with the accelerated pace of economic growth. Average M2 growth edged upwards in early Q22010 to 11.8 yoy compared to the average in the preceding quarter at 11.4 yoy. The improving trend in M2 is closely linked to the higher rate of credit expansion 1 in 2010. In related developments, net foreign assets NFA also widened in response to global economic conditions. Besides this, the indicated shift of funds from demand deposits to time deposits and foreign currency time deposits to profit from the strengthening exchange rate will lead to more rapid quasi-money growth and thus promote growth in M2. For the most part, M1 and M2 growth has maintained levels below historical averages 2006-2008, indicating that economic activity remains below to pre-crisis levels. Financial Markets Amid the uncertainties in external conditions, the JSX Composite Index maintained positive levels of performance. 1 Data from Commercial Bank Daily Reports until end-June 2010 Graph 3.19 Credit Growth �� ���������� �� �� �� �� � ��� ����� ��� ��� ��� ��� ���� ���������������������� ����������������� ������������������ ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ���� ���� ���� ����� ���� Graph 3.20 Nominal Growth of M1 and M2 �� ����� �� �� �� �� � � � � � � � � �� � � � � � �� � � � � � �� � � � � � �� � � � � � �� � ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� �� ����������������������� �� � � � Graph 3.21 JCI and Net Foreign Buying ��� � � � � � �� �� �� � �� ��� �� � �� ��� �� � �� ��� �� � �� ���� ���� ���� ���� � ��� ����� ����� ����� ����� ����� ����� ������������������ ����������������� ����������� Monetary Policy Report - Quarter II-2010 22 During Q22010, the index climbed 4.9 to close at 2,913.7. This achievement stands in remarkable contrast to the negative growth trends in some regional indices during Q22010. This performance is supported by the macro decision by Bank Indonesia to keep the BI Rate on hold and the 6 policy packages for financial market deepening. In addition, exchange rate stability, low inflation, high economic growth and the Moody’s decision to upgrade outlook from stable to positive resulted in further JSX index gains during Q22010. In May 2010, the JSX Composite sustained 5.8 correction following heightened concerns over the possibility of contagion from the European debt crisis to emerging market countries, including Indonesia. The upbeat performance in the JSX Composite was supported by the buoyant condition of issuer micro-fundamentals. These robust issuer fundamentals were reflected in Return on Assets ROA reported by some companies that had released their financial statements to the public in Q12010. Average ROA mounted from 7.1 in the December 2009 position to 7.9 in March 2010. The secure position of issuer fundamentals subsequently encouraged issues to set aside part of their earnings for dividend payouts. The JSX index gains in Q22010 were not followed by consistent levels of sectoral sector gains. Consumer goods became the fastest growing sector at 29.9 The upbeat trend in the consumer goods sector was driven by some leading stock issuers operating in cigarettes and foods. However, the sectors sustaining the steepest growth correction were agribusiness and mining. These sectors had charted positive growth in the preceding quarter, but were impacted by volatile movement in global commodity prices that resulted in negative growth during this quarter. Foreign capital inflows and improving liquidity on the stock market helped bolster JSX index gains during Q22010. The net foreign purchase in Q22010 reached Rp 2.5 trillion, down Rp 1.3 trillion from one quarter before. Although having declined from one quarter earlier, the heavy foreigner buying on the stock market was sufficient to bolster JSX index performance and maintain a positive track Graph 3.21. This stands in direct contrast to index performance in May 2010, when the JSX Index sustained 5.8 correction under the pressure of Rp 1.65 trillion selling by foreign investors. While macroeconomic conditions and corporate fundamentals played a role, the foreign capital inflows on the stock market were also related to the BI plan to launch the 1-month Graph 3.23 Yield SUN, BI Rate and 1 month SBI � �� �� �� �� �� �� �� � ��� ���������� ���������������������� ����������� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ���� � ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ��� Graph 3.24 Yield SUN and CDS ����������������������� ��������������������� � �� �� �� � ���� ���� ��� ��� ��� � ������������������ ��������������������� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ���� ���� ���� Graph 3.22 JCI and Trading Volume � � � � � � � � � � �� � �� ��� �� � �� ��� �� � �� ��� �� � �� ���� ���� ���� ���� � � �� �� �� �� �� �� ���������������������������� ����������� ����������� � Monetary Indicators and Policy Q2-2010 23 holding period for Bank Indonesia Certificates SBIs. The foreigner activity eventually has a positive effect through improvement in market performance as evident from the higher volume of share trading. During Q22010, daily average share turnover reached Rp 4.8 trillion, up slightly from the average in the previous quarter of Rp 6 trillion per day Graph 3.22. More vigorous performance in Government Securities during Q22010 came in response to policy factors and Indonesia’s strong macro fundamentals. Factors behind the strengthening performance of Indonesian Government Treasury Notes include exchange rate stability, low inflation, upgrading of the sovereign rating and positive outlook for the economy. Besides this, performance of government securities was also bolstered by the limited scale of fiscal risks and measures to ensure continued fiscal sustainability. In regard to policy, the BI decision to keep the BI Rate on hold at 6.5 and the planned instruction of the one-month SBI holding period were key background factors in these performance gains. As developments progressed, yield on government securities widened temporarily in May 2010 due to escalating external risks. In overall terms, however, yield in short, medium and long tenors narrowed by 53.2 bps, 63.3 bps and 40.1 bps to produce an overall 54.8 bps decline in yield before closing at 8.2 Graph 3.23. Performance strengthened on the government securities market in contrast to the downturn in a number of external risk indicators. On one hand, yield on 10-year government securities plunged 71.7 bps during Q22020, but on the other hand, external risks such as the EMBIG and CDS in fact mounted by 92.5 bps and 27.7 bps. This stands in contrast to the historical behaviour of Indonesian government securities. For example, in Q12010, the 33.1 bps and 29.3 bps decline in the EMBIG and CDS was followed by a drop in 10-year yield on government securities to 96.4 bps. This is explained not only by the overall strength of fiscal and macroeconomic fundamentals, but was also closely related to early indication of the intensity of funds flowing from SBIs to Indonesian government securities Graphs 3.34 and 3.25. The increase in foreign capital inflows on the Treasury Notes market during Q22010 have helped bring further improvement to the Treasury Notes Market. In this regard, foreign market actors still share positive perceptions of the comparatively high returns. However, yield-seeking investors Graph 3.25 Yield SUN and EMBIG ����������������������� ����������� � �� �� �� � ���� ��� � ����������������� ��������������������� ���� ���� ���� ��� ��� � � � � � � � � � �� �� �� � � � � � � � � � �� �� �� � � � � � � Graph 3.26 Yield SBN and Foreign Activity ����������� �� �� � � � � � � � �� �� �� �� � � � �� � �� ��� �� � �� ��� �� � �� ���� ���� ���� ��������� ����������� ���������� ����� ��������������������� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ��� ��� ���� Graph 3.27 Yield SBN and Daily Trading Volume ����������� �� � � � � � � � � � � � �� �� �� �� �� � � �� � �� ��� �� � �� ��� �� � �� ��� �� � ���� ���� ���� ���� ��������������������� ����������� �� Monetary Policy Report - Quarter II-2010 24 benefited from more optimum levels of returns, fuelled by expectations of reduced risk of exchange rate volatility following the launching of the one-month SBI holding period. This policy has encouraged movement of funds from SBIs to short- term government securities. Following this, foreigners expanded their holdings of government bonds by Rp 29.4 trillion in Q22010, which compares favourably with the Rp 24.1 trillion recorded in the preceding quarter Graph 3.26. In a similar vein, trading volume mounted from Rp 4.1 trillion per day in Q12010 to Rp 5.3 trillion per day in Q22010 Graph 3.27. The positive performance displayed by government securities in Q22010 met with positive response from fixed income funds. Equity funds, mixed funds and fixed income funds reported growth at -0.7, -1.7 and 3.6. In this regard, investment management performance is not generally regarded adequate in terms of returns and management of risks. In regard to returns, no investment manager has been able to outdo the benchmark performance with theJSX Composite set to climb 4.9 during Q22010. However, in regard to risk, the portfolios developed by investment managers appear to be insufficient ready to fend off shocks when they occur. This condition surfaced during the pressures on financial markets in May 2010 that caused equity funds to fall by 11.3, considerably greater then 9.2 drop in the JSX Composite over the same period Graph 3.28. ������������������ ����������� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� �� � ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ��� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� Graph 3.28 Mixed Mutual Funds Index, Fixed Income Stock Monetary Indicators and Policy Q2-2010 25 BOX: Policy Package for Strengthening of Monetary Management and Financial Market Development On 15 June 2010, the Board of Governors of Bank Indonesia launched a policy package following from the decision to extend the maturity profile of Bank Indonesia Certificates SBIs with full effect from June 2010. The thrust of this policy is to respond to and anticipate various financial market developments of domestic and global origin. The overall direction of this policy is to strengthen the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission, bolster financial system stability and promote financial market deepening that in turn will ensure the sustainability of macroeconomic policy and build the momentum for economic recovery. This is not an exchange control policy and remains within the parameters of the free foreign exchange system that Indonesia has consistently adhered to in the past. The policy packages are aimed primarily at reinforcing monetary operations and improving various aspects of prudential banking. The policies include additional instruments and improvements to regulations governing the rupiah and forex money markets, tightened prudential regulations in banking and financial market deepening. These policies cover the following: 1. Widening of the Overnight Interbank Rate Corridor. The decision to widen the overnight interbank rate corridor was taken to bring rates for instrument standing facilities into alignment with the BI Rate. The ON Repo rate standing lending facility was raised from BI Rate + 50 bps to BI Rate + 100 bps, while the ON FASBI standing deposit facility was lowered from BI Rate -50 bps to BI Rate -100 bps. This policy came into force on 17 June 2010. 2. Amendments to the Regulation concerning Net Open Position PDN The purpose of this amendment is to promote transactions and the deepening of the domestic forex market so that it remains conducive for the rupiah exchange rate stability policy while maintain compliance with prudential banking principles. The restriction of on balance sheet Net Open Position to a maximum of 20 of capital has been rescinded and the overall NOP remains a maximum of 20 of capital. This policy came into force on 01 July 2010. 3. Minimum one-month holding period for SBIs. This is a compulsory policy in which SBI buyers on the primary and secondary markets must retain SBIs for a minimum of 1 month 28 days. During this period, SBI holders may not relinquish their holdings to other parties, whether in outright transactions or in repos, with the exception of repos to Bank Indonesia. This policy came into force on 7 July 2010. 4. Addition of the term deposits as a non-security monetary instrument. Term deposits are an instrument for liquidity management by Bank Indonesia without underlying Monetary Policy Report - Quarter II-2010 26 securities. Term deposits are not negotiable, but may be redeemed prior to maturity under certain conditions. This instruments are useful for banks in short-term liquidity management. This policy came into force on 7 July 2010. 5. Issuance of 9 and 12 month SBIs These SBI will be issued in regular monthly auctions applying the same calculations as for SBI issuances in other tenors. Issuances of 9-month SBIs will commence only in the second week of August 2010, while the 12-month SBIs will be launched in the second week of September. 6. Triparty repurchase repo mechanism for Indonesian government securities. The Indonesian government securities triparty repo is a liquidity management activity conducted by Bank Indonesia using reverse repo on underlying assets comprising Indonesian government securities acquired from other designated parties, including pension funds and insurance companies. To implement this policy, Bank Indonesia will work with the government and various agencies to prepare the necessary rules and mechanisms. This policy is expected to become effective in 2011. Monetary Indicators and Policy Q2-2010 27 Monetary Policy Report - Quarter II-2010 28

4. The Indonesian Economic Outlook

Indonesia’s economic growth in 2010 is forecasted to come close to the upper limit of the 5.5-6.0 range. Support for the more optimistic outlook for the economy comes from improvement in external conditions, a more conducive investment climate and continued strength of public purchasing power. The world economy is predicted to maintain recovery in the wake of the 2009 crisis. This recovery will boost world trade volume and enable Indonesia to accelerate exports. At the same time, the investment climate is predicted to improve further in line with the strong fundamentals of the economy and expectations of future expansion in the Indonesian economy. Rising export revenues and growing investment will boost consumer confidence, and keep public purchasing power at healthy levels. Economic expansion has potential for carrying forward into 2011. Economic growth is expected to reach as much as 6.0-6.5. Indonesia’s exports are forecasted to remain strong on the back of rising export volume to developing nations. This year is set to bring an improved investment outlook for Indonesia, matched by buoyant growth in household consumption. Vibrant household consumption growth will be bolstered by various factors, such as low interest rates, high lending and subdued prices. Even so, these forecasts carry an element of risk from the possibility of world economic recovery becoming impeded by the financial crisis in Europe. Price movements are expected to take an upward track, although remaining on track with the prescribed target at 5+1 in 2010 and 2011. Inflationary pressures are set to climb in the second half of 2010, mainly from the effect of volatile foods and administered prices. Supply shocks for some commodities are set to boost volatile foods inflation, as are seasonal factors with the coming Ramadan fasting month and Eid-ul-Fitr festivities. However, the supply shocks over uncertain weather conditions are not expected to last, with improvement coming in 2011. Administered prices inflation is predicted to climb with the government decision to raise electricity billing rates in the second half of 2010. In 2011, inflationary pressure on the external side will be driven by the continued recovery in the world economy that will spur inflation in trading partner nations. At home, inflation will be driven by accelerated economic activity. ASSUMPTIONS Assumptions for the International Economy The recovery trend in the global economy will stay on track with growth ahead of earlier forecasts. Recent developments demonstrate that global manufacturing is growing rapidly in response to recovering activity in the world economy. World economic recovery is forging ahead at fast clip, particularly in emerging Asia, the United States and Japan. European economies Table 4.1 World Economic Outlook Projection yoy 2010 2011 2008 2009 Proyeksi World Output 3.0 -0.6 4.2

4.3 Advanced Economies

0.5 -3.2

2.3 2.4

United States 0.4 -2.4 3.1 2.6 Euro Area 0.6 -4.1 1.0 1.5 Japan -1.2 -5.2 1.9 2.0 Other Advaced Economies 1.7 -1.1 3.7 3.9 Emerging and Developing Economies 6.1

2.4 6.3

6.5 Africa 5.5 2.1 4.7 5.9 Central Eastern Europe 3.0 -3.7 2.8 3.4 Commenwealth of Independent State 5.5 -6.6 4.0 3.6 Developing Asia 7.9 6.6 8.7 8.7 China 9.6 8.7 10.0 9.9 India 7.3 5.7 8.8 8.4 Middle East 5.1 2.4 4.5 4.8 Western Hemisphere 4.3 -1.8 4.0 4.0 Source: MF, World Economic Outlook Update January 2010 The Indonesian Economic Outlook