Studies .1 Land use and climate change

flooding and salinization. Such a mapping project would also have many co-benefits, since it would also require detailed mapping of built structures, including residential areas, industrial sites and infrastructure. The digital mapping would provide a baseline resource; but it is important that this is continuously or regularly updated in subsequent years to reflect changes in hazard zones, buildings and human activities. Elements of this work are already being undertaken by local authorities, but assistance for this process in order to create a comprehensive, multi-hazard, updatable resource would seem a wise investment. Other suggestions: 9.1.7 Support for more resilient farming practices The agricultural extension centre in Nhon Binh has been working to reduce damage to rice crops in flood-prone areas through changes in cropping practices. In particular they have created demonstration plots to try to convince farmers to switch to a 2 crop rather than 3-crop system. Despite potential co-benefits in terms of higher yield and lower agrochemical inputs, take-up has so far been limited. Support could be provided to increase staffing andor increase demonstration models and training classes. 9.1.8 Flood information infrastructure Simple flood information infrastructure could be improved and extended to more sites with minor investment. From Nhon Binh in particular there was a call for new flood warning sign boards to replace existing degraded signs and for taller flood level indicator poles to reflect higher extreme flood levels the existing poles have already been exceeded in recent floods. 9.1.9 Equipment provision Insufficient equipment is a problem for various sectors, especially at lower administrative levels, and some of this could be provided at relatively low-cost in a pilot initiative. Examples include: wireless stations for communication; lifebuoys, life- jackets, torches, waterproof clothing for emergency rescue; sandbags and shovels for dyke protection. These may be scope to provide small equipment stores at neighbourhood level – for immediate access by households and avoidance of delay in transit from central stores. 9.1.10 Safety of fishermen The lives and livelihoods of fishermen are a great risk during typhoons. Schemes to provide fishing vessels with walkie-talkies for warning communication have had limited success because of the quality of the equipment and fishermen’s concerns about surveillance, competition and trust in warnings. A scheme combining improved equipment provision and safety awareness-raising could be valuable. It has been suggested that a coordinated warning text messaging system among fishermen might be possible using cellphones: a feasibility study for this could possibly be undertaken. 9.2 Studies 9.2.1 Land use and climate change Page 104 Sea level rise, precipitation changes and changes in storm patterns have the potential to bring intensification of various forms of climate-related hazard within Quy Nhon. To support the calls for more proactive land use planning in relation to current climatic hazards and the changes that might take place in future, a city-wide risk analysis could take place. This would build on the HCVA, but provide a more detailed analysis of the implications of climate change for the sustainable distribution of residential, commercial and industrial sectors, as well as infrastructure and utilities. An argument has been made that the process of producing such plans is prevented by lack of clear scientific predictions. The study should make use of the best available understanding through latest modeling advances, but it has to be recognized that, as for any long-term planning, there will always be uncertainty in future projections, and lack of precision should not be a reason for inaction. Land use planning will have to take place in conditions of uncertainty. It should also be recognized that an effective land use plan to counter risks requires sound analysis of the social dimensions of vulnerability and resilience – hence an interdisciplinary study is recommended. 9.2.2 Status of fisheries in Thi Nai lake A number of contributing factors have been suggested for the reported decline in fishery productivity in Thi Nai Lake. A scientific study is recommended to investigate historic and current levels of exploitation, ecosystem change and commercial activity, and to determine current levels of fish stocks and pollution of the water body. The study will seek to clarify: a how pressures on the fishery have changed; b whether current pressures constitute a genuine ecological threat to the fishery; c projections of future changes in the fishery according to different scenarios of exploitation, pollution and ecosystem change. See 6.1.4 9.2.3 Resettlement feasibility studies A systematic socio-economic and environmental analysis needs to be made prior to the implementation of any relocation scheme for people living in hazard-prone sites. As well as the priority beachside community in Ly Hoa, resettlement has been suggested for people living on West Dyke, and possibly other site within the city. Careful prior analysis is required because relocation schemes too often prove unsustainable and may ultimately cause the ‘beneficiaries’ more harm than protection. There is a need to assess if the alternative location is itself non- hazardous, that it can support people’s livelihoods, and that it can meet the needs for resources and services of the displaced population without creating conflict with neighbouring communities. This requires a participatory research element too – to ensure that all communities involved have the opportunity to express their needs and aspirations and build this into the research outcomes. See 1.5 Other suggestions: 9.2.4 Groundwater capacity and quality A technical study and mapping of the groundwater resources in the Quy Nhon area has been suggested to guide future extraction and use. The key problem is saline intrusion, which affects some of the areas, depending in part on the distribution of dykes. Mapping of the status of groundwater should also be accompanied by a system for monitoring water quality at wells and other outlets. 9.2.5 Long-term resilience of shrimp aquaculture Page 105 Shrimp-farming has been expanding sector in the Quy Nhon area, and one on which the city’s economy is likely to become increasingly dependent. However, according to city officials, the shrimp themselves are highly sensitive to rapid changes in water conditions – rapid shifts in temperature, salinity and pH caused by erratic weather patterns, overtopping river floods, and high rainfall can kill large numbers of stock. Studies need to be undertaken to assess the long-term vulnerability of aquaculture in relation to climate change and options for improving resilience of shrimp-farms to extreme events. 9.3 Capacity-building 9.3.1 Climatic hazard awareness and training