Availability of services, estimated cost

V ie t N a m -E E S P a p e r N 3 2 .d o c 6 1 , , , , , , + , - , 7 , 8 , 9 , 2 ,, Per year VND millions Wage individual basis 6 869 483 17 664 904 29 743 101 44 303 829 49 897 860 56 579 130 64 161 194 72 775 070 82 651 114 94 050 467 Wage household basis 3 434 742 8 832 452 14 871 551 22 151 915 24 948 930 28 289 565 32 080 597 36 387 535 41 325 557 47 025 233 Social assistance for the disabled 5 345 283 11 614 307 12 533 273 13 434 981 14 352 900 15 283 780 16 258 530 17 276 141 18 328 893 19 417 315 Benefits in kind 95 338 210 016 232 010 257 069 285 659 318 592 356 668 400 866 452 380 512 678 Benefit amount on individual basis for wage component 12 310 103 29 489 226 42 508 384 57 995 879 64 536 420 72 181 501 80 776 393 90 452 077 101 432 386 113 980 459 Benefit amount on household basis for wage component 8 875 362 20 656 774 27 636 834 35 843 965 39 587 490 43 891 936 48 695 796 54 064 542 60 106 829 66 955 226 Costs Administrative costs 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 Total annual cost including administrative costs VND millions Wage individual basis 7 899 906 20 314 639 34 204 566 50 949 404 57 382 539 65 065 999 73 785 374 83 691 331 95 048 781 108 158 037 Wage household basis 3 949 953 10 157 320 17 102 283 25 474 702 28 691 270 32 532 999 36 892 687 41 845 666 47 524 391 54 079 018 Social assistance for the disabled 6 147 075 13 356 453 14 413 264 15 450 228 16 505 835 17 576 346 18 697 310 19 867 562 21 078 227 22 329 913 Benefits in kind 109 638 241 518 266 811 295 629 328 508 366 381 410 169 460 996 520 237 589 579 Total cost on individual basis for wage component 14 156 619 33 912 610 48 884 642 66 695 261 74 216 883 83 008 726 92 892 852 104 019 889 116 647 244 131 077 528 Total cost on household basis for wage component 10 206 666 23 755 290 31 782 359 41 220 559 45 525 613 50 475 727 56 000 165 62 174 223 69 122 854 76 998 510 Annual cost of GDP Wage individual basis 0.00 0.33 0.74 1.08 1.41 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.40 Wage household basis 0.00 0.16 0.37 0.54 0.70 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.70 0.70 Social assistance for the disabled 0.00 0.26 0.48 0.46 0.43 0.40 0.37 0.35 0.33 0.31 0.29 Benefits in kind 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 .01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Benefit amount on individual basis for wage component 0.00 0.59 1.23 1.55 1.84 1.80 1.77 1.75 1.73 1.71 1.69 Benefit amount on household basis for wage component 0.00 0.42 0.86 1.00 1.14 1.10 1.08 1.05 1.03 1.01 0.99 Annual cost of government expenditure 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Wage individual basis 0.00 1.03 2.32 3.41 4.45 4.41 4.43 4.44 4.47 4.49 4.53 Wage household basis 0.00 0.52 1.16 1.71 2.23 2.21 2.21 2.22 2.23 2.25 2.27 Social assistance for the disabled 0.00 0.80 1.52 1.44 1.35 1.27 1.20 1.13 1.06 1.00 0.94 Benefits in kind 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 Benefit amount on individual basis for wage component 0.00 1.85 3.87 4.88 5.83 5.71 5.65 5.59 5.55 5.52 5.49 Benefit amount on household basis for wage component 0.00 1.34 2.71 3.17 3.60 3.50 3.43 3.37 3.32 3.27 3.23 Sources: Population data: General Statistics Office of Viet Nam and World Population Prospects: the 2008 revision used only for annual rate of increase http:www.socialsecurityextension.orggimigessRessFileDownload.do?ressourceId=20140 . Labour force, employment and unemployment for the baseline: General Statistics Office of Viet Nam. Labour force rate of increase to 2020: ILO, 2011. Other parameters based on ILSSA calculations for the Social Protection Strategy 2011–2020 ILSSA, 2010. Detailed sources and references are indicated in the Excel file, available on request. Viet Nam-EES Paper N 32.doc 63 Bibliography “3 scenarios for Vietnam’s 2012 economic growth”, in TuoiTreNews, 10 Jan. 2012. Available at: http:tuoitrenews.vncmlinktuoitrenewsbusiness3-scenarios-for-vietnam-s-2012- economic-growth-1.57959. Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASEAN; World Bank. 2010. Country report of the ASEAN assessment on the social impact of the global financial crisis: Viet Nam Bangkok; New York. Binh, L. D. 2010. “Human resource impacts of the global economic crisis: What is working in APEC members’ social safety nets and labour market system policies? The case of Viet Nam”, in Economica Viet Nam. International Labour Office ILO. 2011. Economically Active Population Estimates and Projections 1980-2020 EAPEP. Available at: http:laborsta.ilo.orgapplv8dataEAPEPeapep_E.html accessed February 2011. International Monetary Fund IMF. 2007. Viet Nam: Statistical Appendix Washington, DC. — 2010. Public Information Notice Washington, DC. — 2011a. Article IV Consultation – Staff Report updated in Mar. 2011 Washington, DC. — 2011b. Revenue mobilisation in developing countries, Fiscal Affairs Department Washington, DC. Long, G. T.; Nga, N. T; Giang, L. M. 2011. Review of social transfer policy implementation in Viet Nam Hanoi, MOLISA. Thanh, T.; Castel, P. 2009. Compulsory social security participation revealed preferences. Social Protection Discussion Papers, Vietnamese Academy of Social Sciences, Centre for Analysis and Forecasting World Bank. Available at: http:www- wds.worldbank.orgservletWDSContentServerWDSPIB20110825000356161 _20110825015540RenderedPDF642740WP0P107600Box0361533B0PUBLIC0. pdf United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs UN-DESA. 2011. World Population Prospects , UN Population Division. Available at: http:www.un.orgesapopulationunpop.htm accessed February 2011. United Nations Development Programme UNDP. 2009. A mapping exercise: Poverty reduction programmes and policies in Viet Nam Hanoi. Viet Nam General Statistics Office of Viet Nam. 2008. Viet Nam Household Living Standard Survey VHLSS Hanoi. Available at: http:www.gso.gov.vn. Institute of Labour Science and Social Affairs ILSSA. 2010. Calculations for the Draft Viet Nam National Social Protection Strategy Hanoi.