KARAKTERISTIK DAN FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI MIGRASI KELUAR DARI JAWA TIMUR

(1)

KARAKTERISTIK DAN FAKTOR YANG

MEMPENGARUHI MIGRASI KELUAR DARI

JAWA TIMUR

(ANALISIS DATA SUPAS 2005)

TESIS

Oleh

Pudhak Prasetyorini

NIM 090820201015

PROGRAM STUDI MAGISTER ILMU EKONOMI

PASCA SARJANA

FAKULTAS EKONOMI

UNIVERSITAS JEMBER

(2)

KARAKTERISTIK DAN FAKTOR YANG

MEMPENGARUHI MIGRASI KELUAR DARI

JAWA TIMUR

(ANALISIS DATA SUPAS 2005)

TESIS

diajukan guna melengkapi tugas akhir dan memenuhi salah satu syarat

untuk menyelesaikan Program Studi Magister Ilmu Ekonomi (S2)

dan mencapai gelar Magister Sains

oleh

Pudhak Prasetyorini

NIM 090820201015

PROGRAM STUDI MAGISTER ILMU EKONOMI

PASCA SARJANA

FAKULTAS EKONOMI

UNIVERSITAS JEMBER

(3)

v

Tesis ini saya persembahkan untuk:

1. Ibunda Bunga Tubu dan Ayahanda Koesnan Jasin Bsc. Yang tercinta;

2. Almamater Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Jember.

(4)

v

n

wajada,

”siapa yang bersungguh-sungguh akan sukses”

Man shabara zhafira,

”siapa yang bersabar akan beruntung”

Man sara ala darbi washala,

”siapa yang berjalan di jalannya akan sampai ke tujuan”.

*)

(5)

vi

Saya yang bertanda tangan di bawah ini:

nama : Pudhak Prasetiyorini

NIM

: 090820201015

menyatakan dengan sesungguhnya bahwa karya ilmiah yang berjudul ”Karakteristik

dan Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Migrasi Keluar dari Jawa Timur (Analisis Data

SUPAS 2005)” adalah benar-benar hasil karya sendiri, kecuali kutipan yang sudah

saya sebutkan sumbernya, belum pernah diajukan pada institusi manapun, dan bukan

karya jiplakan. Saya bertanggung jawab atas keabsahan dan kebenaran isinya sesuai

dengan sikap ilmiah yang harus dijunjung tinggi.

Demikian pernyataan ini saya buat dengan sebenarnya, tanpa ada tekanan

dan paksaan dari pihak mana pun serta bersedia mendapat sanksi akademik jika

ternyata di kemudian hari pernyataan ini tidak benar.

Jember, Februari 2012

Yang menyatakan,

(Pudhak Prasetiyorini)

NIM 090820201015

(6)

v

! " # "$% & ' (%)

*!*+!% ) , -"*") # " !., $ "

/ 0 "*,

(

%."# " # $ #,+ # 1

00 )

34 56

7 8 9 6:;7 <:=5>

y

? < @ A BCD ED F GD GD H D H I

7 5J KJ K@L

M ?=5@7 5JKJK @LN> :J: O M< PQ: @ 8< RCP SP

(7)

v

XX X

u

l

s

f gh

r

k

t

r

st

k

c h

n

i h

k

tor y

n

j kee

p

m

n

j h

ru

lX kXj

r

s

X ge

lu

r

c h

r

XbhmhdX

m

u

r

n o ph

l

s

t

hr st or

200

u v wh

m

hk hl h

s

sw

h ft

u

c l h

k

r

s

t

yor

n

wxk f

0 2020101

u t

ro

r

m

tu

cX fx

lm

u

{

k

on

om

s

tu

ju

X f

m

n

.

~hX

n

u

r

,

.

r X wxt

1

0

2

1

y z y

02 1 001

m

n

jx x

s.

u

n

l

p

X|X

son

o,

.

s

wxt

1

yu z

120

1

y z

0 1 00

tu

ro

r

m

tu

.

h he

l

u

rtom

o

,

.

r X

(8)

x

Tesis berjudul “ Karakteristik dan Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Migrasi Keluar dari

Jawa Timur (Analisis Data SUPAS 2005)” telah diuji dan disahkan pada:

hari, tanggal

: Senin, 09 Januari 2012

tempat

: Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Jember

Tim Penguji:

Ketua,

Dr. Moehammad Fathorazzi, M.Si.

NIP 19630614 199002 1 001

Anggota I,

Sekretaris,

Dr. Zainuri, M.Si.

Drs. Sunlip Wibisono, M.Kes.

NIP 19640325 198902 1 001

NIP 19581206 198603 1 003

Mengesahkan

Dekan,

Prof. Dr. H. Mohammad. Saleh, M.Sc.

NIP 19560831 198403 1 002

(9)

x

RINGKASAN

Karakteristik dan Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Migrasi Keluar dari Jawa Timur

(Analisis Data SUPAS 2005)

u

k

r

s

t

yor

n

,

l

m

n

ro

r

m

tu

lm

u

k

on

,

om

k

u

lt

s

k

on

,

om

v

rs

t

s

m

r

rov

n

s

¢¥¦

r

u

m

l

rov

n

s

n

u

m

l

p

n

u

k

t

rp

t n

om

or

u

n

on

s

¤ ¨

r

s

rk

n

t

r

s

r

t

u

n

s

m

p

, m

r

s

n

tto y

n

p

rol

s

l

lu

m

n

u

n

u

k

n

s

l n

t

,

n

m

n

u

n

u

k

n

£ ¥

l

n

y

k

p

n

u

y

k

u

n

k

lu

r

¢¥ ¦

m

u

r

p

n

u

k

y

n

m

su

k

¤ ¬

r

u

m

u

m

tu

u

n

p

n

l

t

n

m

k

su

k

n

u

n

tu

k

m

u

t

sk

r

ps

n

st

m

s

pol

m

r

s

k

lu

r

¢¥¦

r, m

u

m

n

u

r

u

m

t

r

,

l

m

n

t

n

,

u

l

s

,

rop

s

n

¢¥ ®¨

l

,

n

prop

n

s

l

n

y

k

tk

n

r

m

o

r

« ¯

u

m

u

r,

n

s k

l

m

n

, st

tu

s p

rk

n

p

n

k

n

,

sos

l

k

on

,

om

n

k

r

k

t

r

st

k

r

tu

u

n

m

r

s

¯ ±²¨

,

n

u

str

l

s

n

u

p

m

n

m

u

m

prop

n

s

° ¤

n

l

t

n

m

n

l

s

s m

r

s

k

lu

r y

n

l

u

k

n

ol

p

n

u

k

¢¥ ¦

m

u

r s

l

m

k

u

ru

n

k

tu

t

n

u

¯ ® °¤ ¨

r

s

rk

n

s

t

y

n

k

n

p

k

, p

n

l

t

n

m

ru

p

k

n

p

n

l

t

n

k

u

n

t

« ¤

n

l

t

n

m

n

u

n

k

n

u

m

t

y

tu

t

n

k

t

n

v

u

l

(individual level),

n

t

n

k

t

l

y

(contextual level).

n

s

t

l

t

s

u

n

k

r y

n

ru

p

t

cross section

y

n

p

rol

r

¨ ¤

n

l

t

n

m

n

u

k

n

l

s

regresi logistik multinomial

ros

s p

n

m

l

n

p

n

ol

n

t

m

n

u

n

k

n

pro

r

m

Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS).

r

n

l

s

s y

n

l

k

u

k

n

p

t

s

m

pu

n

lk

££

r

p

l

y

tu

,

r

¤ª

or

n

y

n

rm

r

s

k

lu

r

¢¥ ¦

m

u

r

s

l

³ ¤ ¬

r

u

m

u

m

p

rs

n

t

s

m

r

n

k

lu

r t

r

s

r

l

k

prop

n

s

l

n

u

l

u

¢¥

n

l

¤ ©

n

u

ru

t u

m

u

r, p

rs

t

n

s

m

r

n

k

t

n

k

r

l

t

n

k

n

m

r

n

(10)

x

pr

µ µ

n

k

t

n

k

·¸ µ¹

r

º·

n

u

ru

t p

n

»´»´

k

n

,

¸ ·

n

¸µ

n

p

n

»´»´µ

k

n

t

rt

n

¶ ¶´

p

r

m

´¶

r

n

µ»µ

l

µ ¼

y

n

su

»µ ¼

lu

s str

t

µ ½ ¹ ¾·

r

»µ

s

rk

v

n

µ´ µ¿·

r

l

¸·

n

s k

l

µ´

m

n

m

n

u

n

u

k

n

¿µ ¼Àµ

p

rs

n

t

s

m

´¶µ

r

p

n

r

m

pu

n

l

· ¿´¼ ¿µµ

n

y

k

»µ

r

p

µ »µ

m

´ ¶

r

l

n

µ´

k

l

µ´

k

u

n

tu

k

s

m

u

tu

u

n

¹ ¾ ·»µ

r

s

rk

n

v

r

´ µ ¿ ·

l st

tu

s p

rk

µÀ´

n

t

rl

´ ¼µ

t

¿µ¼

w

m

´ ¶

r

n

y

n

p

·µ ¼

rn

k

µÀ´

n

m

n

u

n

¸µ

u

k

n

k

y

µ¶

n

l

· ¿´ ¼ ¿ µµ

n

y

k

»µ

r

´µ »µ

p

m

´¶

r

n

y

n

¶ ¿·

lu

m

k

(11)

É Ê ËÃ ÌÍÊ Î Ê Ï Î Ð Ñ ÒÓÃÏ ÒÔ

A

ÕÕÒÑ Ö ×Ô Ø

A

ÔÒÌ Ì ÐÙ ÒÕÒ Ï ÒÑ Ú ÒÔ Ó ÒÛ Î ÒÏ Ê ÛÃÒ

-

y

s

Ð ÑÃÛ Ù Ù Ò Ý ÐÛ

u

ÕÃ

s

Ó ÒÝ Ò

t

ÚÐÛ

y

ÐÕÐ

s

ÒÃÎ ÒÛ

t

s

s y

ÒÛ Ù Þ ÐÏ Ë

u

ÓÕ

u

K

ÒÏ ÒÎ Ô ÐÏÃÌÔÃÎ Ó ÒÛ àÒÎ Ô áÏ ÍÒÛ Ù

M

ÐÚ ÝÐÛ Ù ÒÏ Ê ÑÃ

M

ÃÙÏÒÌÃ

K

ÐÕ Ê ÒÏ Ó ÒÏÃ

J

Ò× Òâ ÃÚÊ Ï

(A

Û ÒÕÃÌÃÌ ãÒÔ Ò ÖäÉ

A

Öå ææ ç

)

”.

Tesis ini disusun untuk memenuhi salah satu syarat menyelesaikan pendidikan strata

dua (S2) pada Program Studi Ilmu Ekonomi Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Jember.

Penyusunan tesis ini tidak lepas dari bantuan berbagai pihak. Oleh karena itu,

penulis menyampaikan terima kasih kepada:

1. Dr. Zainuri, M.Si., selaku Dosen Pembimbing Utama, Drs. Sunlip Wibisono,

M.Kes., selaku Dosen Pembimbing Anggota, yang telah meluangkan waktu,

pikiran, dan perhatian dalam penulisan tesis ini;

2. Dr. Rafael Purtomo S. M.Si., selaku Ketua Program Studi yang telah

membimbing selama penulis menjadi mahasiswa;

3. Ibunda Bunga Tubu, Ayahanda Koesnan Jasin Bsc., dan Puspita Pamulatsih, SE.

yang telah memberikan dorongan dan doanya demi terselesaikannya tesis ini;

4. Kawan-kawan Program Studi Ilmu Ekonomi, Pascasarjana Universitas Jember

angkatan 2009 yang telah memberi dorongan dan semangat selama masa

perkuliahan ini;

5. Mokhamad Syafnus Sholakh, SE. yang namanya ditulis paling akhir, tapi

semangat dan waktunya adalah yang paling utama. Terimakasih untuk kesabaran

dan doanya yang tiada henti.

Penulis juga menerima segala kritik dan saran dari semua pihak demi

kesempurnaan tesis ini. Akhirnya penulis berharap semoga tesis ini dapat bermanfaat.

Jember, Februari 2012

Penulis

(12)

ñò ó òô òõ

HALAMAN SAMPUL

ööööööööööö÷ öööööö÷÷÷ é é

HALAMAN JUDUL

ööööööööööööööööö ö÷÷÷ é éé

HALAMAN PERSEMBAHAN

öööö öööööööööö÷ é ø

HALAMAN MOTO

ööööööööööööööööööö ø

HALAMAN PERNYATAAN

ööööööööööööööö÷ ø é

HALAMAN PEMBIBINGAN

öööö öö ööööööööö ø é é

HALAMAN PERSETUJUAN

öööööö öööööööö÷÷÷÷ ø é éé

HALAMAN PENGESAHAN

ööööööööööööööö÷ é è

RINGKASAN

÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷ ÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷ è

PRAKATA

÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷ ÷÷÷÷÷÷ ÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷ è é é

DAFTAR ISI

÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷ ÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷ è é éé

DAFTAR TABEL

÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷ è ø é

DAFTAR LAMPIRAN

÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷ è ø é é

BAB 1.

PENDAHULUAN

÷÷÷÷÷÷ ÷÷÷÷ ÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷ ù

1.1 Latar Belakang

÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷ ù

1.2 Perumusan Masalah

÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷

9

1.3 Tujuan dan Manfaat Penelitian

÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷ ùú

ù÷û÷ ù üý þ ýòõÿôýô ÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷ ùú

ù÷û÷ üý þ ýòõ ý ý ÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷ ùú

ù÷û÷û òõ òò õóééòõ ÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷ ÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷ ù ù

BAB 2.

TINJAUAN PUSTAKA

÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷ ù

2.1 Konsep dan Definisi Migrasi

÷÷÷÷÷÷ ÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷ ù

2.2 Ukuran-ukuran Migrasi

÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷ ù

2.3 Teori Migrasi

÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷ ÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷ ù ÷û÷ ù ü é òø éòéøõéõ÷÷÷÷÷ ÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷ ù

(13)

! "# $%" & ""' ( " $ )

2 .4

Mobilitas Penduduk

2.5 Hasil Penelitian Terdahulu

2.6 Kerangka Pemikiran

)

2.7 Hipotesis

BAB 3.

METODE PENELITIAN

3.1 Jenis Penelitian

3.2 Tempat dan Waktu Penelitian

3.3 Data dan Sumber Data

3.4 Teknik dan Alat Perolehan Data

-3.5

Teknik Penyajian dan Analisis Data

- ,/ 01/ " 0

-2 341 1 1 ( 5

3.6 Definisi Operasional

9 BAB 4.

KARAKTERISTIK PROPINSI JAWA TIMUR DAN

PROPINSI TUJUAN

* ,

4.1 Sosial dan Geografis Jawa Timur

* ,

4.2 Perekonomian Jawa Timur

4.3 Jumlah dan Persebaran Penduduk

4.4 Mobilitas dan Migrasi Penduduk

9

4.5 Karakteristik Daerah Tujuan Migrasi

-BAB 5.

HASIL DAN PEMBAHASAN

+ 5

5.1 Pola dan Perbedaan Daerah Tujuan Migrasi

+ 5

5.2 Pembahasan

9

5.3 Verifikasi Teori

-BAB 6.

PENUTUP

9 6.1 Kesimpulan

9

(14)

89:; 9 <=>?;9 @9 AA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

9 LAMPIRAN

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA 6 7 C CC

Lampiran 1. Tabel Crosstabs

AAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA 6 7 C CC

Lampiran 2. Hasil Uji Regresi Logistic

AAAAAA AAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA 6 6 C

DA E F G DH IJ D

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA 6 6 C KA L DM CG DN H DN

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA 6 6 C 7 OA E F M DP IQ C

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA 6 6 7 C C RA SDP DT UDM C AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA 6 6 6

(15)

cd e df dg

1.1

h di dj fj fk li lg dm dk ln oddgpdqdrZfj ni ds j g

2005 ...

1.2

u Zmn dv ZnZ vlg

(

wlvlg iu ZmndiZxg

)

ynxY Zgv ZpdqdrZf j nids jg

1

z {

0-2005 ...

{

4.1

|lnk lf}dgmdg|hw~dgylgdydi dgylnk dy Zi dflgj n j i

s dnmdkxgvi dg

2000,

pdq drZfj n

2001-2005 (

p j i dw y

) ...

44

4.2

in j k ij n|hw~f lg j n j ie dydgmdgjvdsd}lndvdn k dg

s dnmdkxgvi dg

2000,

pdq drZfj n

2001-2005 (

p j i dw y

) ...

45

4.3

|lnk lf}dgmdgylgjj kg xglv Zddgpdq drZfj n

i ds j g

1 2005 ...

4

4.4 L

dojyln ij f}j s dgylgjj kg xg lvZddgpdqdrZf j n

i ds j g

1 2005 ...

4

4.5

rnlgr

F

,

~dgc

L,

pdq drZf jn

1 2005 ...

4

{

4.

u Zmn dv ZnZ vlgfdvj kpdq drZf jn}lndvdnk dgynx y ZgvZ

ilfydiiZg m mdeeZfdids j ge dej

,

ids j g

2000

2005 ...

50

4.

t u Zmn dv ZnZ vlgk l ej dnpdqdrZfj n}lndvdnk dgynx y Zgv Z

dln dsi j oj dg

,

idsj g

2000

2005 ………...

52

5.1

ZedZlviZf dv Zn lmn lv ZexmZviZ

………

{

5.2

hZ vi nZ }jv Zij oj dgfZmn dvZnZ vlgk l ej dnpdqdrZf j nf lgj n j i

j fj n

(

2005) ...

{

0

5.3

hZ vi nZ }jv Zij oj dgfZmn dvZnZ vlgk l ej dnpdq drZfj nf lg j n j i

ylg Z Zk dg

(

2005) ...

{

1

5.4

hZ vi nZ }jv Zij oj dgfZmn dvZnZ vlgk l ej dnpdq drZfj nf lg j n j i

olgZvk l edfZg

(

2005) ...

{

3

5.5

hZ vi nZ }jv Zij oj dgfZmn dvZnZ vlgk l ej dnpdq drZfj nf lg j n ji

(16)

¡ ¢ £ ¤¥¦§ ¨ ¨ © £¨ ªªªªªª ªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªª

« ¢¬ ¨ ¥® ¤¯ ¤¨§¯ ¨©° ªªªªªªªªªª ªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªª

ª ± ²³´µ

ªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªª ªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªª ¶ª · ³

ªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªª ¸ª ± ² ¹´º

ªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªª »ª ¼¹½¾ ªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªª ªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªªª

(17)

xviii

ÁÈÉÊË ÌÈÍÎÏÐÈÑÒÓÔ ÌÕ ÖÖ ×ÈÑÖ

a. Case Processing Summary

Cases

Valid Missing Total

N Percent N Percent N Percent

Umur * Tujuan 3937 100.0% 0 .0% 3937 100.0%

Jenis Kelamin * Tujuan ₃₉₃₇ _100.0% ₀ _.0% ₃₉₃₇ _100.0%

Pendidkan * Tujuan 3937 100.0% 0 .0% 3937 100.0%

Status Perkawinan *

Tujuan 3937 100.0% 0 .0% 3937 100.0%

b. Umur * Tujuan Crosstabulation

Tujuan

Total

Sumatera

Kalimantan

Sulawesi

Jawa

Papua

Sumatera

Umur

Pra Angkatan

Kerja

Count

5

6

1

273

4

289 % within Umur

1.7%

2.1%

.3%

94.5%

1.4%

100.0%

% within

Tujuan

3.1%

4.4%

4.5%

7.7%

7.4%

7.3%

Angkatan Kerja

Count

154

130

21 3293

50 3648

% within Umur

4.2%

3.6%

.6%

90.3%

1.4%

100.0%

% within

Tujuan

96.9%

95.6%

95.5%

92.3%

92.6%

92.7%

Total

Count

159

136

22 3566

54 3937

% within Umur

4.0%

3.5%

.6%

90.6%

1.4%

100.0%

% within

(18)

xix

c. Jenis Kelamin * Tujuan Crosstabulation

Tujuan Total

Sumatera Kalimantan Sulawesi Jawa Papua Sumatera

Jenis Kelamin Perempuan Count ₁₀₁ ₉₅ ₁₁ ₁₉₀₆ ₂₉ ₂₁₄₂

% within Jenis Kelamin 4.7% 4.4% .5% 89.0% 1.4% 100.0%

% within Tujuan _63.5% _69.9% _50.0% _53.4% _53.7% _54.4%

Laki-Laki Count 58 41 11 1660 25 1795

% within Jenis Kelamin _3.2% _2.3% _.6% _92.5% _1.4% _100.0%

% within Tujuan 36.5% 30.1% 50.0% 46.6% 46.3% 45.6%

Total Count 159 136 22 3566 54 3937

% within Jenis Kelamin _4.0% _3.5% _.6% _90.6% _1.4% _100.0% % within Tujuan _100.0% _100.0% _100.0% _100.0% _100.0% _100.0%

d. Status Perkawinan * Tujuan Crosstabulation

Tujuan Total

Sumatera Kalimantan Sulawesi Jawa Papua Sumatera

Status Perkawinan Belum Pernah Menikah Count 29 29 5 864 9 936

% within Status

Perkawinan 3.1% 3.1% .5% 92.3% 1.0% 100.0%

% within Tujuan 18.2% 21.3% 22.7% 24.2% 16.7% 23.8%

Pernah Menikah Count ₁₃₀ ₁₀₇ ₁₇ ₂₇₀₂ ₄₅ ₃₀₀₁

% within Status

Perkawinan 4.3% 3.6% .6% 90.0% 1.5% 100.0%

% within Tujuan 81.8% 78.7% 77.3% 75.8% 83.3% 76.2%

Total Count ₁₅₉ ₁₃₆ ₂₂ ₃₅₆₆ ₅₄ ₃₉₃₇

% within Status

Perkawinan 4.0% 3.5% .6% 90.6% 1.4% 100.0%

(19)

xx

e. Pendidkan * Tujuan Crosstabulation

Tujuan Total

Sumatera Kalimantan Sulawesi Jawa Papua Sumatera

Pendidkan TDK TAMAT SD Count 8 10 2 189 2 211

% within Pendidkan _3.8% _4.7% _.9% _89.6% _.9% _100.0%

% within Tujuan 5.0% 7.4% 9.1% 5.3% 3.7% 5.4%

SD Count ₅ ₄ ₀ ₁₄₀ ₁ ₁₅₀

% within Pendidkan 3.3% 2.7% .0% 93.3% .7% 100.0%

% within Tujuan _3.1% _2.9% _.0% _3.9% _1.9% _3.8%

SMP Count 10 8 2 182 3 205

% within Pendidkan 4.9% 3.9% 1.0% 88.8% 1.5% 100.0%

% within Tujuan 6.3% 5.9% 9.1% 5.1% 5.6% 5.2%

SMU Count ₉ ₂ ₁ ₁₇₅ ₃ ₁₉₀

% within Pendidkan 4.7% 1.1% .5% 92.1% 1.6% 100.0%

% within Tujuan 5.7% 1.5% 4.5% 4.9% 5.6% 4.8%

SMK Count ₇ ₁₀ ₀ ₇₈ ₂ ₉₇

% within Pendidkan 7.2% 10.3% .0% 80.4% 2.1% 100.0%

% within Tujuan 4.4% 7.4% .0% 2.2% 3.7% 2.5%

D I/ II Count 6 3 2 103 1 115

% within Pendidkan _5.2% _2.6% _1.7% _89.6% _.9% _100.0%

% within Tujuan 3.8% 2.2% 9.1% 2.9% 1.9% 2.9%

D III/ SARJANA MUDA

Count ₂ ₃ ₀ ₃₁ ₁ ₃₇

% within Pendidkan 5.4% 8.1% .0% 83.8% 2.7% 100.0%

% within Tujuan _1.3% _2.2% _.0% _.9% _1.9% _.9%

S1 Count 112 96 15 2668 41 2932

% within Pendidkan _3.8% _3.3% _.5% _91.0% _1.4% _100.0%

% within Tujuan 70.4% 70.6% 68.2% 74.8% 75.9% 74.5%

Total Count ₁₅₉ ₁₃₆ ₂₂ ₃₅₆₆ ₅₄ ₃₉₃₇

% within Pendidkan 4.0% 3.5% .6% 90.6% 1.4% 100.0%

(20)

Ø Ø Ù Ú Û ÜÝ ÞßÛ àá

.

âÛ ãÞäåæ Þç èé ß èãÞÚ ê é Þã ë Þì Û

.

í îÜÛ ë èßÛ

vs Propinsi Lain

3937 100,0

0 ,0

3937 100,0

Unweighted Casesa

Included in Analysis Missing Cases Total Selected Cases Unselected Cases Total N Percent

If weight is in effect, see classification table for the total number of cases.

Dependent Variable Encoding

0 1 Original Value prop lain sumatera Internal Value

Categorical Variables Codings

936 1,000 3001 ,000 1795 1,000 2142 ,000 belum kawin kawin status perempuan laki-laki sex Frequency (1) Parameter coding

Block 0: Beginning Block

Classification Tablea,b

3778 0 100,0

159 0 ,0

96,0 Observed prop lain sumatera migrasi Overall Percentage Step 0

prop lain sumatera

migrasi _Percentage

Correct Predicted

Constant is included in the model. a.

The cut value is ,500 b.

(21)

ð ð ñ ñ

Variables in the Equation

-3,168 ,081 1531,357 1 ,000 ,042

Constant Step 0

B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)

Variables not in the Equation

4,289 1 ,038

5,550 1 ,018

,456 1 ,499

2,802 1 ,094

15,308 4 ,004

age JK(1) educ mariage(1) Variables

Overall Statistics Step

Score df Sig.

ò ó ô õö÷

: Method = Enter

Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients

16,248 4 ,003

Step Block Model Step 1

Chi-square df Sig.

Model Summary

1315,790a ,004 ,014

Step 1

-2 Log likelihood

Cox & Snell R Square

Nagelkerke R Square

Estimation terminated at iteration number 7 because parameter estimates changed by less than ,001. a.

Hosmer and Lemeshow Test

4,296 5 ,508

Step 1

(22)

ø ø ùùù

Contingency Table for Hosmer and Lemeshow Test

434 434,261 9 8,739 443

39 39,725 2 1,275 41

1120 1118,140 35 36,860 1155

422 427,042 22 16,958 444

48 46,700 1 2,300 49

1311 1304,037 59 65,963 1370

404 408,093 31 26,907 435

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Step 1 Observed Expected

migrasi = prop lain

Observed Expected

migrasi = sumatera

Total

Classification Tablea

3778 0 100,0

159 0 ,0

96,0 Observed prop lain sumatera migrasi Overall Percentage Step 1

prop lain sumatera

migrasi _Percentage

Correct Predicted

The cut value is ,500 a.

Variables in the Equation

1,019 ,510 3,994 1 ,046 2,769

-,428 ,169 6,425 1 ,011 ,652

-,254 ,116 4,833 1 ,028 ,775

-,281 ,232 1,477 1 ,224 ,755

-3,494 ,518 45,577 1 ,000 ,030

age JK(1) educ mariage(1) Constant Step 1a

B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)

Variable(s) entered on step 1: age, JK, educ, mariage. a.

(23)

ú ú ûü ý

.

þÿ ÿ ÿ

vs Propinsi Lain

Case Processing Summary

3937 100,0

0 ,0

3937 100,0

0 ,0

3937 100,0

Unweighted Casesa

Included in Analysis Missing Cases Total

Selected Cases

Unselected Cases Total

N Percent

If weight is in effect, see classification table for the total number of cases.

Dependent Variable Encoding

0 1 Original Value

prop lain kalimantan

Internal Value

Categorical Variables Codings

936 1,000

3001 ,000

1795 1,000

2142 ,000

belum kawin kawin status

perempuan laki-laki sex

Frequency (1)

Parameter coding

(24)

0: Beginning Block

Classification Tablea,b

3801 0 100,0

136 0 ,0

96,5 Observed

prop lain kalimantan migrasi

Overall Percentage Step 0

prop lain kalimantan

migrasi _Percentage

Correct Predicted

Constant is included in the model. a.

The cut value is ,500 b.

Variables in the Equation

-3,330 ,087 1456,314 1 ,000 ,036

Constant Step 0

B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)

Variables not in the Equation

1,777 1 ,183

13,548 1 ,000

,524 1 ,469

,467 1 ,494

18,564 4 ,001

age JK(1) educ mariage(1) Variables

Overall Statistics Step

Score df Sig.

Block 1: Method = Enter

Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients

19,231 4 ,001

Step Block Model Step 1

(25)

Model Summary

1163,438a _,005 _,019

Step 1

-2 Log likelihood

Cox & Snell R Square

Nagelkerke R Square

Estimation terminated at iteration number 7 because parameter estimates changed by less than ,001. a.

Hosmer and Lemeshow Test

7,202 4 ,126

Step 1

Chi-square df Sig.

Contingency Table for Hosmer and Lemeshow Test

289 288,123 4 4,877 293

1131 1129,526 24 25,474 1155

355 353,003 8 9,997 363

390 399,560 25 15,440 415

1313 1309,840 57 60,160 1370

323 320,948 18 20,052 341

1 2 3 4 5 6 Step 1 Observed Expected migrasi = prop lain

Observed Expected migrasi = kalimantan

Total

Classification Tablea

3801 0 100,0

136 0 ,0

96,5 Observed prop lain kalimantan migrasi Overall Percentage Step 1

prop lain kalimantan

migrasi _Percentage

Correct Predicted

The cut value is ,500 a.

(26)

Variables in the Equation

,752 ,481 2,440 1 ,118 2,121

-,711 ,191 13,928 1 ,000 ,491

-,229 ,126 3,285 1 ,070 ,795

-,133 ,240 ,308 1 ,579 ,876

-3,374 ,489 47,628 1 ,000 ,034

age JK(1) educ mariage(1) Constant Step 1a

B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)

Variable(s) entered on step 1: age, JK, educ, mariage. a.

.

vs Propinsi Lain

Dependent Variable Encoding

0 1 Original Value prop lain sulawesi Internal Value

Categorical Variables Codings

936 1,000 3001 ,000 1795 1,000 2142 ,000 belum kawin kawin status perempuan laki-laki sex Frequency (1) Parameter coding

Block 0: Beginning Block

Classification Tablea,b

3915 0 100,0

22 0 ,0

99,4 Observed prop lain sulawesi migrasi Overall Percentage Step 0

prop lain sulawesi

migrasi _Percentage

Correct Predicted

Constant is included in the model. a.

The cut value is ,500 b.

(27)

Variables in the Equation

-5,182 ,214 587,361 1 ,000 ,006

Constant Step 0

B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)

Variables not in the Equation

,254 1 ,614

,173 1 ,677

,513 1 ,474

,013 1 ,908

1,539 4 ,820

age JK(1) educ mariage(1) Variables

Overall Statistics Step

Score df Sig.

!"#

: Method = Enter

Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients

1,441 4 ,837

Step Block Model Step 1

Chi-square df Sig.

Model Summary

270,670a _,000 _,005

Step 1

-2 Log likelihood

Cox & Snell R Square

Nagelkerke R Square

Estimation terminated at iteration number 8 because parameter estimates changed by less than ,001. a.

Hosmer and Lemeshow Test

1,306 5 ,934

Step 1

(28)

$ $ %$

Contingency Table for Hosmer and Lemeshow Test

288 288,000 1 1,000 289

270 270,694 2 1,306 272

1363 1363,408 7 6,592 1370

154 153,139 0 ,861 154

1149 1148,528 6 6,472 1155

390 390,140 3 2,860 393

301 301,091 3 2,909 304

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Step 1 Observed Expected

migrasi = prop lain

Observed Expected

migrasi = sulawesi

Total

Classification Tablea

3915 0 100,0

22 0 ,0

99,4 Observed prop lain sulawesi migrasi Overall Percentage Step 1

prop lain sulawesi

migrasi _Percentage

Correct Predicted

The cut value is ,500 a.

Variables in the Equation

,883 1,152 ,588 1 ,443 2,419

,153 ,430 ,127 1 ,722 1,166

-,295 ,290 1,034 1 ,309 ,745

-,002 ,571 ,000 1 ,997 ,998

-5,626 1,193 22,234 1 ,000 ,004

age JK(1) educ mariage(1) Constant Step 1a

B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)

Variable(s) entered on step 1: age, JK, educ, mariage. a.

(29)

& & & '

.

( ) * )

-

+) ,-

vs Propinsi Lain

Case Processing Summary

3937 100,0

0 ,0

3937 100,0

0 ,0

3937 100,0

Unweighted Casesa

Included in Analysis Missing Cases Total Selected Cases Unselected Cases Total N Percent

If weight is in effect, see classification table for the total number of cases.

Dependent Variable Encoding

0 1 Original Value prop lain jawa-bali Internal Value

Categorical Variables Codings

936 1,000 3001 ,000 1795 1,000 2142 ,000 belum kawin kawin status perempuan laki-laki sex Frequency (1) Parameter coding

Block 0: Beginning Block

Classification Tablea,b

0 371 ,0

0 3566 100,0

90,6 Observed prop lain jawa-bali migrasi Overall Percentage Step 0

prop lain jawa-bali

migrasi _Percentage

Correct Predicted

Constant is included in the model. a.

The cut value is ,500 b.

(30)

. . . /

Variables in the Equation

2,263 ,055 1720,910 1 ,000 9,612

Constant Step 0

B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)

Variables not in the Equation

5,521 1 ,019

13,991 1 ,000

,742 1 ,389

4,311 1 ,038

28,263 4 ,000

age JK(1) educ mariage(1) Variables

Overall Statistics Step

Score df Sig.

0 1 2 345

: Method = Enter

Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients

29,161 4 ,000

Step Block Model Step 1

Chi-square df Sig.

Model Summary

2429,308a _,007 _,016

Step 1

-2 Log likelihood

Cox & Snell R Square

Nagelkerke R Square

Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than ,001. a.

Hosmer and Lemeshow Test

6,711 4 ,152

Step 1

(31)

6 6 6 7 7

Contingency Table for Hosmer and Lemeshow Test

43 42,241 249 249,759 292

143 153,903 1227 1216,097 1370

39 31,652 268 275,348 307

38 29,101 291 299,899 329

85 86,181 1070 1068,819 1155

23 27,922 461 456,078 484

1 2 3 4 5 6 Step 1 Observed Expected migrasi = prop lain

Observed Expected migrasi = jawa-bali

Total

Classification Tablea

0 371 ,0

0 3566 100,0

90,6 Observed prop lain jawa-bali migrasi Overall Percentage Step 1

prop lain jawa-bali

migrasi _Percentage

Correct Predicted

The cut value is ,500 a.

Variables in the Equation

-,681 ,304 5,015 1 ,025 ,506

,451 ,114 15,708 1 ,000 1,570

,219 ,081 7,361 1 ,007 1,244

,263 ,156 2,846 1 ,092 1,301

2,311 ,309 55,752 1 ,000 10,083

age JK(1) educ mariage(1) Constant Step 1a

B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)

Variable(s) entered on step 1: age, JK, educ, mariage. a.

.

9: ; < :

vs Propinsi Lain

Dependent Variable Encoding

0 1 Original Value prop lain papua Internal Value

(32)

= = = >>>

Categorical Variables Codings

936 1,000 3001 ,000 1795 1,000 2142 ,000 belum kawin kawin status perempuan laki-laki sex Frequency (1) Parameter coding

? @ A BC

0: Beginning Block

Classification Tablea,b

3883 0 100,0

54 0 ,0

98,6 Observed prop lain papua migrasi Overall Percentage Step 0

prop lain papua

migrasi _Percentage

Correct Predicted

Constant is included in the model. a.

The cut value is ,500 b.

Variables in the Equation

-4,275 ,137 973,520 1 ,000 ,014

Constant Step 0

B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)

Variables not in the Equation

,000 1 ,985

,011 1 ,917

,330 1 ,565

1,526 1 ,217

2,252 4 ,689

age JK(1) educ mariage(1) Variables Overall Statistics Step 0

(33)

D D D EF G H I JKL

: Method = Enter

Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients

2,578 4 ,631

Step Block Model Step 1

Chi-square df Sig.

Model Summary

567,910a ,001 ,005

Step 1

-2 Log likelihood

Cox & Snell R Square

Nagelkerke R Square

Estimation terminated at iteration number 8 because parameter estimates changed by less than ,001. a.

Hosmer and Lemeshow Test

3,647 4 ,456

Step 1

Chi-square df Sig.

Contingency Table for Hosmer and Lemeshow Test

488 489,262 5 3,738 493

400 396,632 1 4,368 401

410 411,328 7 5,672 417

82 81,784 1 1,216 83

1350 1349,109 20 20,891 1370

1153 1154,885 20 18,115 1173

1 2 3 4 5 6 Step 1

Observed Expected migrasi = prop lain

Observed Expected migrasi = papua

(34)

M M M N

Classification Tablea

3883 0 100,0

54 0 ,0

98,6 Observed

prop lain papua migrasi

Overall Percentage Step 1

prop lain papua

migrasi _Percentage

Correct Predicted

The cut value is ,500 a.

Variables in the Equation

-,695 ,720 ,932 1 ,334 ,499

,012 ,276 ,002 1 ,965 1,012

,101 ,236 ,184 1 ,668 1,107

-,640 ,478 1,789 1 ,181 ,527

-3,675 ,729 25,417 1 ,000 ,025

age JK(1) educ mariage(1) Constant Step

B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)

Variable(s) entered on step 1: age, JK, educ, mariage. a.

(1)

.

( ) * )

-

+) ,-

vs Propinsi Lain

Case Processing Summary

3937 100,0

0 ,0

3937 100,0

0 ,0

3937 100,0 Unweighted Casesa

Included in Analysis Missing Cases Total

Selected Cases

Unselected Cases Total

N Percent

If weight is in effect, see classification table for the total number of cases.

Dependent Variable Encoding

0 1 Original Value

prop lain jawa-bali

Internal Value

Categorical Variables Codings

936 1,000

3001 ,000

1795 1,000

2142 ,000

belum kawin kawin status

perempuan laki-laki sex

Frequency (1) Parameter

coding

Block 0: Beginning Block

Classification Tablea,b

0 371 ,0

0 3566 100,0

90,6 Observed

prop lain jawa-bali migrasi

Overall Percentage Step 0

prop lain jawa-bali

migrasi _Percentage Correct Predicted

Constant is included in the model. a.

The cut value is ,500 b.

(2)

Variables in the Equation

2,263 ,055 1720,910 1 ,000 9,612

Constant Step 0

B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)

Variables not in the Equation

5,521 1 ,019

13,991 1 ,000

,742 1 ,389

4,311 1 ,038

28,263 4 ,000

age JK(1) educ mariage(1) Variables

Overall Statistics Step

Score df Sig.

0 1 2 345

: Method = Enter

Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients

29,161 4 ,000

Step Block Model Step 1

Chi-square df Sig.

Model Summary

2429,308a _,007 _,016

Step 1

-2 Log likelihood

Cox & Snell R Square

Nagelkerke R Square

Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than ,001. a.

Hosmer and Lemeshow Test

6,711 4 ,152

Step 1

(3)

Contingency Table for Hosmer and Lemeshow Test

43 42,241 249 249,759 292

143 153,903 1227 1216,097 1370

39 31,652 268 275,348 307

38 29,101 291 299,899 329

85 86,181 1070 1068,819 1155

23 27,922 461 456,078 484

1 2 3 4 5 6 Step 1

Observed Expected migrasi = prop lain

Observed Expected migrasi = jawa-bali

Total

Classification Tablea

0 371 ,0

0 3566 100,0

90,6 Observed

prop lain jawa-bali migrasi

Overall Percentage Step 1

prop lain jawa-bali

migrasi _Percentage Correct Predicted

The cut value is ,500 a.

Variables in the Equation

-,681 ,304 5,015 1 ,025 ,506

,451 ,114 15,708 1 ,000 1,570

,219 ,081 7,361 1 ,007 1,244

,263 ,156 2,846 1 ,092 1,301

2,311 ,309 55,752 1 ,000 10,083

age JK(1) educ mariage(1) Constant Step

B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)

Variable(s) entered on step 1: age, JK, educ, mariage. a.

.

9: ; < :

vs Propinsi Lain

Dependent Variable Encoding

0 1 Original Value

prop lain papua

(4)

Categorical Variables Codings

936 1,000

3001 ,000

1795 1,000

2142 ,000

belum kawin kawin status

perempuan laki-laki sex

Frequency (1) Parameter

coding

? @ A BC

0 : Beginning Block

Classification Tablea,b

3883 0 100,0

54 0 ,0

98,6 Observed

prop lain papua migrasi

Overall Percentage Step 0

prop lain papua

migrasi _Percentage Correct Predicted

Constant is included in the model. a.

The cut value is ,500 b.

Variables in the Equation

-4,275 ,137 973,520 1 ,000 ,014

Constant Step 0

B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)

Variables not in the Equation

,000 1 ,985

,011 1 ,917

,330 1 ,565

1,526 1 ,217

2,252 4 ,689

age JK(1) educ mariage(1) Variables

Overall Statistics Step

(5)

G H I JKL

: Method = Enter

Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients

2,578 4 ,631

Step Block Model Step 1

Chi-square df Sig.

Model Summary

567,910a ,001 ,005

Step 1

-2 Log likelihood

Cox & Snell R Square

Nagelkerke R Square

Estimation terminated at iteration number 8 because parameter estimates changed by less than ,001. a.

Hosmer and Lemeshow Test

3,647 4 ,456

Step 1

Chi-square df Sig.

Contingency Table for Hosmer and Lemeshow Test

488 489,262 5 3,738 493

400 396,632 1 4,368 401

410 411,328 7 5,672 417

82 81,784 1 1,216 83

1350 1349,109 20 20,891 1370 1153 1154,885 20 18,115 1173 1

2 3 4 5 6 Step 1

Observed Expected migrasi = prop lain

Observed Expected migrasi = papua

(6)

Classification Tablea

3883 0 100,0

54 0 ,0

98,6 Observed

prop lain papua migrasi

Overall Percentage Step 1

prop lain papua

migrasi _Percentage Correct Predicted

The cut value is ,500 a.

Variables in the Equation

-,695 ,720 ,932 1 ,334 ,499

,012 ,276 ,002 1 ,965 1,012

,101 ,236 ,184 1 ,668 1,107

-,640 ,478 1,789 1 ,181 ,527

-3,675 ,729 25,417 1 ,000 ,025

age JK(1) educ mariage(1) Constant Step

B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)

Variable(s) entered on step 1: age, JK, educ, mariage. a.