Greenhouse gas impact of phasing out nuclear power

2.3.2 Greenhouse gas impact of phasing out nuclear power

Nuclear power plays a substantial role in Asia’s energy If the nuclear phaseout were compensated using only sector, especially in Armenia, the PRC, India, Japan,

one fossil fuel—coal, oil, or gas—the added emissions the Republic of Korea, Pakistan, and Taipei,China. The

would be as shown in Box Table 1.

continent had 116 nuclear power reactors in operation at the end of 2012 (IAEA 2012a). Furthermore, nuclear

1 power is expanding at a healthy pace throughout the Estimates of increased carbon dioxide emissions

(million tons of coal equivalent)

region, which has 44 of the 67 reactors now under construction worldwide.

But the disaster at Japan’s Fukushima nuclear power

plant in March 2011 has called into question the future

of nuclear expansion in Asia and elsewhere. It prompted

the authorities in Japan and elsewhere to reconsider new projects and to review the design and safety systems of all nuclear power reactors. This will likely delay

According to the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2012, nuclear expansion in Asia, affecting those plants already

the actual mix of fossil fuel-based power generation was commissioned for construction or in the approval pipeline. as follows in 2010: coal 78%, oil 4%, and gas 17.5%. This slowdown and a possible phasing out of nuclear

Based on this mix, the range of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) power programs in some countries could compromise the

emission from the three sources are 523.7–891.5 million adequacy of the region’s energy supply.

tons of coal equivalent (MTCE) in 2025, 711.2–1,210.5 In response, governments need to accelerate the use

MCTE in 2035, and 9,898.8–16,849.6 MTCE in of renewable sources, go back to fossil fuels, or both.

2010–2035. By comparison, power generation in 2010 However, renewable energy may not be an option in the

emitted 3,625 MTCE in the PRC and 872 MTCE in short run, as it requires huge investments before it is

India (IEA 2012a). Therefore, a nuclear phaseout in Asia ready for large-scale cost-competitive use. Issues regarding

from 2010 to 2035 would increase carbon emissions by resource intermittency have to be resolved as well. Using

220%–375% more than the combined emissions of the fossil fuels to make up the shortfall would exacerbate Asia’s PRC and India in 2010. high dependence on imported oil, force up Asian energy

It is worthwhile to look at the impact of a nuclear bills, and heighten Asia’s exposure to supply disruptions.

phaseout on CO 2 emissions from only the energy

A hypothetical phasing out of nuclear power over the sector. World CO 2 emissions from power generation in forecast period would cause a significant increase in fossil

2010 amounted to 12,495 MTCE. Asia emitted 6,084 fuel use for power generation. If no new nuclear plants

MTCE and thus accounted for 49% of the global total were built and existing plants were retired, the capacity

(Box Table 2). Based on the World Energy Outlook’s new lost by 2035 would be offset mostly by coal and gas.

policy scenario, phasing out nuclear would increase the Renewables would make at best a modest contribution.

world power sector’s CO2 emissions by 3.6%–6.1% in This phaseout is assumed to follow the pattern shown

2025 and by 4.8%–8.1% in 2035. And it would increase in the box figure.

the Asian power sector’s emissions by 8.6%–10.8% in 2025 and 7.8%–13.3% in 2035. The region’s ability to achieve

Projected phaseout of Asia’s nuclear capacity

sustainable growth with low GHG emissions would be

uncertain without nuclear power.

Phaseout scenario

Business-as-usual scenario Gigawatts of electrical output

2 Carbon dioxide emissions from power generation

(million tons of coal equivalent)

Sources: ADB estimates, IAEA 2012b,c.