INPUT DATA IMAMobs ANALISIS PENGARUH PRODUK DOMESTIK REGIONAL BRUTO PERKAPITA, TINGKAT EMPLOYMENT, PENGELUARAN PEMBANGUNAN DAN INVESTASI TERHADAP PENDAPATAN ASLI DAERAH JAWA TENGAH TAHUN 1979 – 2004.

INPUT DATA IMAM
obs
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997

1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004

PAD
12568.78
21544.71
28305.69
30580.6
32202.72
35415.93
41077.25
47227.1
55159.89
64154.85
75147.31

93898.98
106882.6
120639.1
143834.6
191102.5
261103.8
280768.7
331778.5
294647.1
281841.5
592237.6
832261
1241735
1494936
1865404

PDRB
2845575.69
3741066.57
4994942.21

5726662.68
6966615.22
8111093.46
9177171.71
11492261.66
13593745.27
16422805.51
18692151.22
21689283.14
25980442.64
30200680.97
33978909.16
39303565.04
46586032.91
52505360.63
60296426.87
84610222.51
101509193
117782925.2
136131480.2

156418300.5
173892798.1
193435263.1

EM
10546864
10759176
9545352
11179350
11371122
11566183
11351663
12573622
12571258
12982509
13106605
13424764
13544104
13611177
13632439

13765142
13462265
14262731
14128038
14186853
14621149
15764044
15456449
15154856
15124082
15528110

PPEM
12367.88
18386.34
27489.22
30016.06
28038.66
31016.09
40577.88

45275.19
51775.47
58533.22
60166.63
77521.25
105729.2
105732.2
106829.3
126693.4
164629.1
230044.2
251714.2
198586.9
224831.8
314330
367160
869916
1029687
1324033

Keterangan:
PAD

= Pendapatan Asli Daerah

PDRB = Produk Domestik Regional Bruto per kapita
EM

= Employment

PPEM = Pengeluaran Pembangunan
INV

= Investasi

INV
3706.09
4672.05
3021.23
305.5

-17752.1
6913.3
-14026.5
84311.71
53946.17
41728.52
3122015
216141
30725.7
89142.2
108901.1
4032207
1682953
7804594
10215769
24612842
21222750
29602062
1218985
641566.9

761257.7
31343971

INPUT DATA
obs
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993

1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004

D(PAD)
NA
8975.93
6760.98
2274.91
1622.12
3213.21
5661.32

6149.85
7932.79
8994.96
10992.46
18751.67
12983.59
13756.55
23195.43
47267.94
70001.34
19664.86
51009.77
-37131.4
-12805.6
310396.1
240023.4
409474.4
253200.5
370467.7

D(PDRB)
NA
895490.9
1253876
731720.5
1239953
1144478
1066078
2315090
2101484
2829060
2269346
2997132
4291160
4220238
3778228
5324656
7282468
5919328
7791066
24313796
16898970
16273732
18348555
20286820
17474498
19542465

D(EM)
NA
212312
-1213824
1633998
191772
195061
-214520
1221959
-2364
411251
124096
318159
119340
67073
21262
132703
-302877
800466
-134693
58815
434296
1142895
-307595
-301593
-30774
404028

D(PPEM)
NA
6018.46
9102.88
2526.84
-1977.4
2977.43
9561.79
4697.31
6500.28
6757.75
1633.41
17354.62
28207.97
3
1097.03
19864.16
37935.65
65415.13
21669.97
-53127.3
26244.84
89498.25
52830
502756
159771
294346.1

D(INV)
NA
965.96
-1650.82
-2715.73
-18057.6
24665.37
-20939.8
98338.17
-30365.5
-12217.7
3080286
-2905874
-185415
58416.5
19758.9
3923306
-2349254
6121641
2411175
14397073
-3390093
8379312
-2.8E+07
-577418
119690.8
30582713

INPUT DATA
obs
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004

PAD(-1)

PDRB(-1)

EM(-1)

12568.78
21544.71
28305.69
30580.6
32202.72
35415.93
41077.25
47227.1
55159.89
64154.85
75147.31
93898.98
106882.6
120639.1
143834.6
191102.5
261103.8
280768.7
331778.5
294647.1
281841.5
592237.6
832261
1241735
1494936

2845575.69
3741066.57
4994942.21
5726662.68
6966615.22
8111093.46
9177171.71
11492261.7
13593745.3
16422805.5
18692151.2
21689283.1
25980442.6
30200681
33978909.2
39303565
46586032.9
52505360.6
60296426.9
84610222.5
101509193
117782925
136131480
156418300
173892798

10546864
10759176
9545352
11179350
11371122
11566183
11351663
12573622
12571258
12982509
13106605
13424764
13544104
13611177
13632439
13765142
13462265
14262731
14128038
14186853
14621149
15764044
15456449
15154856
15124082

PPEM(-1)
12367.88
18386.34
27489.22
30016.06
28038.66
31016.09
40577.88
45275.19
51775.47
58533.22
60166.63
77521.25
105729.2
105732.2
106829.3
126693.4
164629.1
230044.2
251714.2
198586.9
224831.8
314330
367160
869916
1029687

INV(-1)

ECT

3706.09
4672.05
3021.23
305.5
-17752.1
6913.3
-14026.5
84311.71
53946.17
41728.52
3122015
216141
30725.7
89142.2
108901.1
4032207
1682953
7804594
10215769
24612842
21222750
29602062
1218985
641566.9
761257.7

13395944.88
14501756.25
14542498.97
16905753.64
18315821.09
19679789.92
20514308.88
24148243.46
26215565.02
29441421.4
34905790.06
35313810.41
39554118.99
43886093.27
47683243.96
57036504.86
61634776.54
74521961.13
84560169.77
123313857.8
137296081.9
162871123.5
152341813
171842903.9
189312888.9

Uji Stasionaritas ( Akar Unit / Unit Root Tests)
Variabel PAD
DF (Lag 0)
Model 1
ADF Test Statistic

8.569898

1% Critical Value*
5% Critical Value
10% Critical Value

-2.6603
-1.9552
-1.6228

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(PAD)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 06:46
Sample(adjusted): 1980 2004
Included observations: 25 after adjusting endpoints
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

PAD(-1)

0.274713

0.032056

8.569898

0.0000

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood

0.668949
0.668949
74192.29
1.32E+11
-315.3236

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Durbin-Watson stat

74113.39
128946.9
25.30589
25.35464
1.771240

Model 2
ADF Test Statistic

6.817500

1% Critical Value*
5% Critical Value
10% Critical Value

-3.7204
-2.9850
-2.6318

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(PAD)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 06:47
Sample(adjusted): 1980 2004
Included observations: 25 after adjusting endpoints
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

PAD(-1)
C

0.274017
555.7046

0.040193
18605.32

6.817500
0.029868

0.0000
0.9764

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.668961
0.654568
75786.53
1.32E+11
-315.3231
1.769879

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

74113.39
128946.9
25.38585
25.48336
46.47831
0.000001

Model 3
ADF Test Statistic

3.665934

1% Critical Value*
5% Critical Value
10% Critical Value

-4.3738
-3.6027
-3.2367

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(PAD)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 06:47
Sample(adjusted): 1980 2004
Included observations: 25 after adjusting endpoints
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

PAD(-1)
C
@TREND(1979)

0.232706
-24794.80
2803.087

0.063478
35381.60
3319.639

3.665934
-0.700782
0.844395

0.0014
0.4908
0.4075

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.679353
0.650204
76263.84
1.28E+11
-314.9244
1.745796

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

74113.39
128946.9
25.43395
25.58022
23.30568
0.000004

ADF (Lag 1)
Model 1
ADF Test Statistic

3.111031

1% Critical Value*
5% Critical Value
10% Critical Value

-2.6649
-1.9559
-1.6231

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(PAD)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 06:47
Sample(adjusted): 1981 2004
Included observations: 24 after adjusting endpoints
Variable
PAD(-1)
D(PAD(-1))
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

0.238140
0.148715

0.076547
0.280427

3.111031
0.530316

0.0051
0.6012

0.669543
0.654522
76991.82
1.30E+11
-303.0453
1.995963

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

76827.45
130988.9
25.42044
25.51861
44.57441
0.000001

Model 2
ADF Test Statistic

2.723637

1% Critical Value*
5% Critical Value
10% Critical Value

-3.7343
-2.9907
-2.6348

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(PAD)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 06:48
Sample(adjusted): 1981 2004
Included observations: 24 after adjusting endpoints
Variable
PAD(-1)
D(PAD(-1))
C
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

0.234835
0.152749
1849.536

0.086221
0.290319
20165.55

2.723637
0.526140
0.091718

0.0127
0.6043
0.9278

0.669675
0.638216
78787.87
1.30E+11
-303.0405
1.997987

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

76827.45
130988.9
25.50337
25.65063
21.28688
0.000009

Model 3
ADF Test Statistic

1.675304

1% Critical Value*
5% Critical Value
10% Critical Value

-4.3942
-3.6118
-3.2418

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(PAD)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 06:48
Sample(adjusted): 1981 2004
Included observations: 24 after adjusting endpoints
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

PAD(-1)
D(PAD(-1))
C
@TREND(1979)

0.176572
0.182430
-32116.12
3584.736

0.105397
0.292427
40599.51
3716.918

1.675304
0.623846
-0.791047
0.964438

0.1094
0.5398
0.4382
0.3463

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.684355
0.637008
78919.24
1.25E+11
-302.4950
2.033027

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

76827.45
130988.9
25.54125
25.73759
14.45409
0.000031

Variabel PDRB
DF (Lag 0)
Model 1
ADF Test Statistic

13.38988

1% Critical Value*
5% Critical Value
10% Critical Value

-2.6603
-1.9552
-1.6228

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(PDRB)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 06:54
Sample(adjusted): 1980 2004
Included observations: 25 after adjusting endpoints
Variable
PDRB(-1)
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

0.145103

0.010837

13.38988

0.0000

0.758579
0.758579
3739979.
3.36E+14
-413.3280

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Durbin-Watson stat

7623587.
7611707.
33.14624
33.19499
1.237210

Model 2
ADF Test Statistic

8.981284

1% Critical Value*
5% Critical Value
10% Critical Value

-3.7204
-2.9850
-2.6318

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(PDRB)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 06:55
Sample(adjusted): 1980 2004
Included observations: 25 after adjusting endpoints
Variable
PDRB(-1)
C
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

0.130885
1431934.

0.014573
1005890.

8.981284
1.423549

0.0000
0.1680

0.778128
0.768482
3662476.
3.09E+14
-412.2724
1.315618

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

7623587.
7611707.
33.14180
33.23931
80.66346
0.000000

Model 3
ADF Test Statistic

2.451167

1% Critical Value*
5% Critical Value
10% Critical Value

-4.3738
-3.6027
-3.2367

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(PDRB)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 06:55
Sample(adjusted): 1980 2004
Included observations: 25 after adjusting endpoints
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

PDRB(-1)
C
@TREND(1979)

0.074224
-1634732.
442083.3

0.030281
1739444.
211067.8

2.451167
-0.939802
2.094508

0.0227
0.3575
0.0480

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.815015
0.798199
3419354.
2.57E+14
-409.9996
1.467910

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

7623587.
7611707.
33.03997
33.18623
48.46444
0.000000

ADF (Lag 1)
Model 1
ADF Test Statistic

2.360470

1% Critical Value*
5% Critical Value
10% Critical Value

-2.6649
-1.9559
-1.6231

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(PDRB)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 06:55
Sample(adjusted): 1981 2004
Included observations: 24 after adjusting endpoints
Variable
PDRB(-1)
D(PDRB(-1))
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

0.083685
0.447414

0.035453
0.246601

2.360470
1.814321

0.0275
0.0833

0.782780
0.772907
3641955.
2.92E+14
-395.6031
1.945714

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

7903925.
7642446.
33.13359
33.23177
79.27994
0.000000

Model 2
ADF Test Statistic

2.218238

1% Critical Value*
5% Critical Value
10% Critical Value

-3.7343
-2.9907
-2.6348

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(PDRB)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 06:56
Sample(adjusted): 1981 2004
Included observations: 24 after adjusting endpoints
Variable
PDRB(-1)
D(PDRB(-1))
C
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

0.078645
0.396825
1209703.

0.035454
0.248618
1046392.

2.218238
1.596123
1.156071

0.0377
0.1254
0.2606

0.795778
0.776328
3614418.
2.74E+14
-394.8627
1.954446

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

7903925.
7642446.
33.15523
33.30249
40.91453
0.000000

Model 3
ADF Test Statistic

0.929163

1% Critical Value*
5% Critical Value
10% Critical Value

-4.3942
-3.6118
-3.2418

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(PDRB)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 06:56
Sample(adjusted): 1981 2004
Included observations: 24 after adjusting endpoints
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

PDRB(-1)
D(PDRB(-1))
C
@TREND(1979)

0.037499
0.299649
-1957900.
435767.7

0.040357
0.241440
1986579.
236815.5

0.929163
1.241087
-0.985563
1.840114

0.3639
0.2289
0.3361
0.0806

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.825347
0.799149
3425073.
2.35E+14
-392.9859
1.987400

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

7903925.
7642446.
33.08216
33.27850
31.50417
0.000000

Variabel Investasi Employment (EM)
DF ( Lag 0 )
Model 1
ADF Test Statistic

1.716018

1% Critical Value*
5% Critical Value
10% Critical Value

-2.6603
-1.9552
-1.6228

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(EM)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 06:57
Sample(adjusted): 1980 2004
Included observations: 25 after adjusting endpoints
Variable
EM(-1)
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

0.017836

0.010394

1.716018

0.0990

-0.028286
-0.028286
714330.5
1.22E+13
-371.9407

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Durbin-Watson stat

271253.7
704437.2
29.83526
29.88401
2.365693

Model 2
ADF Test Statistic

-0.988750

1% Critical Value*
5% Critical Value
10% Critical Value

-3.7204
-2.9850
-2.6318

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(EM)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 06:58
Sample(adjusted): 1980 2004
Included observations: 25 after adjusting endpoints
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

EM(-1)
C

-0.062731
1122166.

0.063445
872060.4

-0.988750
1.286798

0.3331
0.2110

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.040772
-0.000933
704765.8
1.14E+13
-371.0717
2.341778

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

271253.7
704437.2
29.84574
29.94325
0.977626
0.333074

Model 3
ADF Test Statistic

-3.156585

1% Critical Value*
5% Critical Value
10% Critical Value

-4.3738
-3.6027
-3.2367

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(EM)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 06:58
Sample(adjusted): 1980 2004
Included observations: 25 after adjusting endpoints
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

EM(-1)
C
@TREND(1979)

-0.639615
6547042.
184629.9

0.202629
1983289.
62427.48

-3.156585
3.301104
2.957509

0.0046
0.0033
0.0073

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.313653
0.251258
609548.6
8.17E+12
-366.8874
1.849402

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

271253.7
704437.2
29.59099
29.73726
5.026886
0.015921

ADF ( Lag 1 )
Model 1
ADF Test Statistic

1.889398

1% Critical Value*
5% Critical Value
10% Critical Value

-2.6649
-1.9559
-1.6231

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(EM)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 06:59
Sample(adjusted): 1981 2004
Included observations: 24 after adjusting endpoints
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

EM(-1)
D(EM(-1))

0.021770
-0.191595

0.011522
0.213805

1.889398
-0.896118

0.0721
0.3799

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.005137
-0.040084
732369.1
1.18E+13
-357.1073
2.011939

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

280254.7
718118.1
29.92561
30.02378
0.113607
0.739269

Model 2
ADF Test Statistic

-1.048681

1% Critical Value*
5% Critical Value
10% Critical Value

-3.7343
-2.9907
-2.6348

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(EM)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 06:59
Sample(adjusted): 1981 2004
Included observations: 24 after adjusting endpoints
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

EM(-1)
D(EM(-1))
C

-0.071872
-0.182418
1312900.

0.068536
0.209580
947774.9

-1.048681
-0.870399
1.385244

0.3062
0.3939
0.1805

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.088433
0.001617
717537.2
1.08E+13
-356.0581
2.017669

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

280254.7
718118.1
29.92151
30.06876
1.018627
0.378251

Model 3
ADF Test Statistic

-2.998231

1% Critical Value*
5% Critical Value
10% Critical Value

-4.3942
-3.6118
-3.2418

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(EM)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 06:59
Sample(adjusted): 1981 2004
Included observations: 24 after adjusting endpoints
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

EM(-1)
D(EM(-1))
C
@TREND(1979)

-0.785656
0.211542
7930727.
227177.8

0.262040
0.230193
2505130.
81218.58

-2.998231
0.918979
3.165795
2.797117

0.0071
0.3691
0.0049
0.0111

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.344759
0.246473
623369.3
7.77E+12
-352.0961
2.095176

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

280254.7
718118.1
29.67468
29.87102
3.507704
0.034252

Variabel Pengeluaran Pembangunan (PPEM)
DF (Lag 0)
Model 1
ADF Test Statistic

5.005632

1% Critical Value*
5% Critical Value
10% Critical Value

-2.6603
-1.9552
-1.6228

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(PPEM)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 07:01
Sample(adjusted): 1980 2004
Included observations: 25 after adjusting endpoints
Variable
PPEM(-1)
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

0.289683

0.057871

5.005632

0.0000

0.405040
0.405040
88849.81
1.89E+11
-319.8308

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Durbin-Watson stat

52466.61
115189.4
25.66646
25.71522
2.452133

Model 2
ADF Test Statistic

3.957349

1% Critical Value*
5% Critical Value
10% Critical Value

-3.7204
-2.9850
-2.6318

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(PPEM)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 07:01
Sample(adjusted): 1980 2004
Included observations: 25 after adjusting endpoints
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

PPEM(-1)
C

0.291398
-882.9994

0.073635
22610.18

3.957349
-0.039053

0.0006
0.9692

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.405079
0.379213
90757.77
1.89E+11
-319.8299
2.456352

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

52466.61
115189.4
25.74639
25.84390
15.66061
0.000625

Model 3
ADF Test Statistic

1.996588

1% Critical Value*
5% Critical Value
10% Critical Value

-4.3738
-3.6027
-3.2367

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(PPEM)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 07:02
Sample(adjusted): 1980 2004
Included observations: 25 after adjusting endpoints
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

PPEM(-1)
C
@TREND(1979)

0.223180
-28917.35
3117.211

0.111781
41227.99
3821.179

1.996588
-0.701401
0.815772

0.0584
0.4904
0.4234

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.422547
0.370051
91425.06
1.84E+11
-319.4574
2.370988

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

52466.61
115189.4
25.79659
25.94286
8.049163
0.002381

ADF (Lag 1)
Model 1
ADF Test Statistic

3.826356

1% Critical Value*
5% Critical Value
10% Critical Value

-2.6649
-1.9559
-1.6231

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(PPEM)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 07:02
Sample(adjusted): 1981 2004
Included observations: 24 after adjusting endpoints
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

PPEM(-1)
D(PPEM(-1))

0.381660
-0.318682

0.099745
0.279291

3.826356
-1.141037

0.0009
0.2661

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.434308
0.408595
90169.37
1.79E+11
-306.8371
2.010857

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

54401.95
117251.0
25.73642
25.83459
16.89041
0.000461

Model 2
ADF Test Statistic

3.303152

1% Critical Value*
5% Critical Value
10% Critical Value

-3.7343
-2.9907
-2.6348

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(PPEM)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 07:02
Sample(adjusted): 1981 2004
Included observations: 24 after adjusting endpoints
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

PPEM(-1)
D(PPEM(-1))
C

0.403411
-0.341319
-7856.812

0.122129
0.293661
24350.19

3.303152
-1.162286
-0.322659

0.0034
0.2582
0.7501

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.437098
0.383489
92063.37
1.78E+11
-306.7777
2.023297

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

54401.95
117251.0
25.81481
25.96207
8.153351
0.002396

Model 3
ADF Test Statistic

1.975070

1% Critical Value*
5% Critical Value
10% Critical Value

-4.3942
-3.6118
-3.2418

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(PPEM)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 07:03
Sample(adjusted): 1981 2004
Included observations: 24 after adjusting endpoints
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

PPEM(-1)
D(PPEM(-1))
C
@TREND(1979)

0.333947
-0.295536
-31788.42
2607.592

0.169081
0.307672
46681.47
4314.257

1.975070
-0.960552
-0.680965
0.604413

0.0622
0.3482
0.5037
0.5524

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.447196
0.364275
93486.94
1.75E+11
-306.5605
2.003474

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

54401.95
117251.0
25.88004
26.07639
5.393059
0.006948

Variabel Investasi (INV)
DF (Lag 0)
Model 1
ADF Test Statistic

-1.354051

1% Critical Value*
5% Critical Value
10% Critical Value

-2.6603
-1.9552
-1.6228

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(INV)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 07:04
Sample(adjusted): 1980 2004
Included observations: 25 after adjusting endpoints
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

INV(-1)

-0.265357

0.195973

-1.354051

0.1883

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood

0.053366
0.053366
9042700.
1.96E+15
-435.3999

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Durbin-Watson stat

1253611.
9294093.
34.91199
34.96075
1.607925

Model 2
ADF Test Statistic

-1.929283

1% Critical Value*
5% Critical Value
10% Critical Value

-3.7204
-2.9850
-2.6318

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(INV)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 07:04
Sample(adjusted): 1980 2004
Included observations: 25 after adjusting endpoints
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

INV(-1)
C

-0.414134
3001734.

0.214657
1980972.

-1.929283
1.515283

0.0661
0.1433

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.139290
0.101868
8807996.
1.78E+15
-434.2105
1.592554

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

1253611.
9294093.
34.89684
34.99435
3.722132
0.066123

Model 3
ADF Test Statistic

-2.985493

1% Critical Value*
5% Critical Value
10% Critical Value

-4.3738
-3.6027
-3.2367

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(INV)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 07:05
Sample(adjusted): 1980 2004
Included observations: 25 after adjusting endpoints
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

INV(-1)
C
@TREND(1979)

-0.681514
-3681661.
600926.3

0.228275
3412938.
259787.6

-2.985493
-1.078737
2.313144

0.0068
0.2924
0.0304

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.307672
0.244733
8077134.
1.44E+15
-431.4892
1.658149

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

1253611.
9294093.
34.75914
34.90540
4.888420
0.017516

ADF (Lag 1)
Model 1
ADF Test Statistic

-1.057282

1% Critical Value*
5% Critical Value
10% Critical Value

-2.6649
-1.9559
-1.6231

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(INV)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 07:05
Sample(adjusted): 1981 2004
Included observations: 24 after adjusting endpoints
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

INV(-1)
D(INV(-1))

-0.232275
-0.119616

0.219691
0.295465

-1.057282
-0.404841

0.3019
0.6895

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.059624
0.016880
9409806.
1.95E+15
-418.3847
1.473748

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

1305804.
9490246.
35.03206
35.13023
1.394910
0.250189

Model 2
ADF Test Statistic

-1.656199

1% Critical Value*
5% Critical Value
10% Critical Value

-3.7343
-2.9907
-2.6348

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(INV)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 07:07
Sample(adjusted): 1981 2004
Included observations: 24 after adjusting endpoints
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

INV(-1)
D(INV(-1))
C

-0.410660
-0.032383
3112450.

0.247954
0.294914
2167892.

-1.656199
-0.109805
1.435703

0.1125
0.9136
0.1658

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.143677
0.062122
9190744.
1.77E+15
-417.2611
1.555441

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

1305804.
9490246.
35.02176
35.16902
1.761721
0.196199

Model 3
ADF Test Statistic

-2.886481

1% Critical Value*
5% Critical Value
10% Critical Value

-4.3942
-3.6118
-3.2418

*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(INV)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 07:07
Sample(adjusted): 1981 2004
Included observations: 24 after adjusting endpoints
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

INV(-1)
D(INV(-1))
C
@TREND(1979)

-0.804838
0.223024
-4987038.
727746.3

0.278830
0.287558
3928089.
305811.3

-2.886481
0.775579
-1.269584
2.379723

0.0091
0.4471
0.2188
0.0274

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.332642
0.232538
8313921.
1.38E+15
-414.2693
1.994323

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

1305804.
9490246.
34.85577
35.05211
3.322971
0.040568

Uji Kointegrasi (Cointegration Tests)
DF ( Lag 0)
Model 1
Engle-Granger Cointegration Test: UROOT(N,0)
==============================================
--Cointegrating Vector-PAD
1.000000
PDRB
-0.003321
EM
0.012757
PPEM
-1.033165
INV
0.003180
-----------------------Dickey-Fuller t-statistic
-4.7426
MacKinnon critical values: 1%
-5.9459
5%
-5.0236
10%
-4.5855
==============================================

LS // Dependent Variable is D(RESID)
Date: 8-14-2006 / Time: 7:22
SMPL range: 1981 - 2004
Number of observations: 24
Engle-Granger Cointegration Test: UROOT(N,0)
========================================================================
VARIABLE
COEFFICIENT
STD. ERROR
T-STAT.
2-TAIL SIG.
========================================================================
RESID(-1)
-1.0229330
0.2156892
-4.7426255
0.0001
========================================================================
R-squared
0.493889
Mean of dependent var
2100.107
Adjusted R-squared
0.493889
S.D. of dependent var
66059.01
S.E. of regression
46995.36
Sum of squared resid
5.08E+10
Log likelihood
-291.7311
Durbin-Watson stat
1.961663
========================================================================

Model 2
Engle-Granger Cointegration Test: UROOT(C,0)
==============================================
--Cointegrating Vector-PAD
1.000000
PDRB
-0.003321
EM
0.012757
PPEM
-1.033165
INV
0.003180
-----------------------Dickey-Fuller t-statistic
-4.7426
MacKinnon critical values: 1%
-5.9459
5%
-5.0236
10%
-4.5855
==============================================

LS // Dependent Variable is D(RESID)
Date: 8-14-2006 / Time: 7:22
SMPL range: 1981 - 2004
Number of observations: 24
Engle-Granger Cointegration Test: UROOT(C,0)
========================================================================
VARIABLE
COEFFICIENT
STD. ERROR
T-STAT.
2-TAIL SIG.
========================================================================
RESID(-1)
-1.0229330
0.2156892
-4.7426255
0.0001
========================================================================
R-squared
0.493889
Mean of dependent var
2100.107
Adjusted R-squared
0.493889
S.D. of dependent var
66059.01
S.E. of regression
46995.36
Sum of squared resid
5.08E+10
Log likelihood
-291.7311
Durbin-Watson stat
1.961663
========================================================================

Model 3
Engle-Granger Cointegration Test: UROOT(T,0)
==============================================
--Cointegrating Vector-PAD
1.000000
PDRB
-0.003624
EM
-0.014628
PPEM
-1.027779
INV
0.002318
TREND
11036.56
-----------------------Dickey-Fuller t-statistic
-5.2591
MacKinnon critical values: 1%
-6.4443
5%
-5.4704
10%
-5.0134
==============================================

LS // Dependent Variable is D(RESID)
Date: 8-14-2006 / Time: 7:22
SMPL range: 1981 - 2004
Number of observations: 24
Engle-Granger Cointegration Test: UROOT(T,0)
========================================================================
VARIABLE
COEFFICIENT
STD. ERROR
T-STAT.
2-TAIL SIG.
========================================================================
RESID(-1)
-1.1241092
0.2137472
-5.2590584
0.0000
========================================================================
R-squared
0.545379
Mean of dependent var
2232.481
Adjusted R-squared
0.545379
S.D. of dependent var
63100.32
S.E. of regression
42545.75
Sum of squared resid
4.16E+10
Log likelihood
-289.3439
Durbin-Watson stat
2.092292
========================================================================

ADF (Lag 1)
Model 1
Engle-Granger Cointegration Test: UROOT(N,1)
==============================================
--Cointegrating Vector-PAD
1.000000
PDRB
-0.003321
EM
0.012757
PPEM
-1.033165
INV
0.003180
-----------------------Dickey-Fuller t-statistic
-6.3854
MacKinnon critical values: 1%
-5.9459
5%
-5.0236
10%
-4.5855
==============================================

LS // Dependent Variable is D(RESID)
Date: 8-14-2006 / Time: 7:23
SMPL range: 1981 - 2004
Number of observations: 24
Engle-Granger Cointegration Test: UROOT(N,1)
========================================================================
VARIABLE
COEFFICIENT
STD. ERROR
T-STAT.
2-TAIL SIG.
========================================================================
D(RESID(-1))
0.6134080
0.1843231
3.3278958
0.0031
RESID(-1)
-1.6137351
0.2527209
-6.3854432
0.0000
========================================================================
R-squared
0.663357
Mean of dependent var
2100.107
Adjusted R-squared
0.648055
S.D. of dependent var
66059.01
S.E. of regression
39189.50
Sum of squared resid
3.38E+10
Log likelihood
-286.8383
F-statistic
43.35105
Durbin-Watson stat
1.698920
Prob(F-statistic)
0.000001
========================================================================

Model 2
Engle-Granger Cointegration Test: UROOT(C,1)
==============================================
--Cointegrating Vector-PAD
1.000000
PDRB
-0.003321
EM
0.012757
PPEM
-1.033165
INV
0.003180
-----------------------Dickey-Fuller t-statistic
-6.3854
MacKinnon critical values: 1%
-5.9459
5%
-5.0236
10%
-4.5855
==============================================

LS // Dependent Variable is D(RESID)
Date: 8-14-2006 / Time: 7:23
SMPL range: 1981 - 2004
Number of observations: 24
Engle-Granger Cointegration Test: UROOT(C,1)
========================================================================
VARIABLE
COEFFICIENT
STD. ERROR
T-STAT.
2-TAIL SIG.
========================================================================
D(RESID(-1))
0.6134080
0.1843231
3.3278958
0.0031
RESID(-1)
-1.6137351
0.2527209
-6.3854432
0.0000
========================================================================
R-squared
0.663357
Mean of dependent var
2100.107
Adjusted R-squared
0.648055
S.D. of dependent var
66059.01
S.E. of regression
39189.50
Sum of squared resid
3.38E+10
Log likelihood
-286.8383
F-statistic
43.35105
Durbin-Watson stat
1.698920
Prob(F-statistic)
0.000001
========================================================================

Model 3
Engle-Granger Cointegration Test: UROOT(T,1)
==============================================
--Cointegrating Vector-PAD
1.000000
PDRB
-0.003624
EM
-0.014628
PPEM
-1.027779
INV
0.002318
TREND
11036.56
-----------------------Dickey-Fuller t-statistic
-7.1685
MacKinnon critical values: 1%
-6.4443
5%
-5.4704
10%
-5.0134
==============================================

LS // Dependent Variable is D(RESID)
Date: 8-14-2006 / Time: 7:23
SMPL range: 1981 - 2004
Number of observations: 24
Engle-Granger Cointegration Test: UROOT(T,1)
========================================================================
VARIABLE
COEFFICIENT
STD. ERROR
T-STAT.
2-TAIL SIG.
========================================================================
D(RESID(-1))
0.6426334
0.1724682
3.7260977
0.0012
RESID(-1)
-1.8298798
0.2552669
-7.1684954
0.0000
========================================================================
R-squared
0.721277
Mean of dependent var
2232.481
Adjusted R-squared
0.708607
S.D. of dependent var
63100.32
S.E. of regression
34062.06
Sum of squared resid
2.55E+10
Log likelihood
-283.4729
F-statistic
56.93129
Durbin-Watson stat
1.764269
Prob(F-statistic)
0.000000
========================================================================

Complete Regression Model (ECM)

Dependent Variable: D(PAD)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 07:30
Sample(adjusted): 1980 2004
Included observations: 25 after adjusting endpoints
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
D(PDRB)
D(EM)
D(PPEM)
D(INV)
PDRB(-1)
EM(-1)
PPEM(-1)
INV(-1)
ECT

134405.7
-0.003646
0.021644
0.471127
-0.002493
-0.538126
-0.558021
-0.134892
-0.547189
0.543030

134466.7
0.005220
0.019069
0.521469
0.002999
0.554250
0.555315
0.401430
0.553510
0.553449

0.999547
-0.698546
1.135060
0.903461
-0.831169
-0.970907
-1.004874
-0.336028
-0.988581
0.981174

0.3334
0.4955
0.2742
0.3806
0.4189
0.3470
0.3309
0.7415
0.3385
0.3421

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.921494
0.874391
45700.56
3.13E+10
-297.3348
2.586454

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

74113.39
128946.9
24.58678
25.07433
19.56323
0.000001

Estimation Command:
=====================
LS D(PAD) C D(PDRB) D(EM) D(PPEM) D(INV) PDRB(-1) EM(-1) PPEM(-1) INV(-1) ECT
Estimation Equation:
=====================
D(PAD) = C(1) + C(2)*D(PDRB) + C(3)*D(EM) + C(4)*D(PPEM) + C(5)*D(INV) +
C(6)*PDRB(-1) + C(7)*EM(-1) + C(8)*PPEM(-1) + C(9)*INV(-1) + C(10)*ECT
Substituted Coefficients:
=====================
D(PAD) = 134405.6955 - 0.00364619632*D(PDRB) + 0.02164426815*D(EM) +
0.4711268227*D(PPEM) - 0.002493038133*D(INV) - 0.5381255984*PDRB(-1) 0.5580214361*EM(-1) - 0.1348917881*PPEM(-1) - 0.5471890512*INV(-1) +
0.5430298149*ECT

Autocorrelation Tests
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared

6.129560
15.12790

Probability
Probability

0.009038
0.001711

Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 07:32
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
D(PDRB)
D(EM)
D(PPEM)
D(INV)
PDRB(-1)
EM(-1)
PPEM(-1)
INV(-1)
ECT
RESID(-1)
RESID(-2)
RESID(-3)

-1953.129
0.000257
-0.017523
0.339947
-0.000256
0.227227
0.230019
-0.104203
0.228151
-0.228082
-0.903807
-0.836459
0.433682

97706.67
0.003845
0.015146
0.462034
0.002526
0.617132
0.620048
0.326552
0.617905
0.617104
0.374584
0.402398
0.488016

-0.019990
0.066875
-1.156879
0.735762
-0.101188
0.368199
0.370969
-0.319101
0.369233
-0.369600
-2.412829
-2.078687
0.888663

0.9844
0.9478
0.2698
0.4760
0.9211
0.7191
0.7171
0.7551
0.7184
0.7181
0.0327
0.0598
0.3916

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.605116
0.210232
32107.85
1.24E+10
-285.7202
1.941840

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

1.36E-09
36129.46
23.89762
24.53143
1.532390
0.235331

Normality Test
12
Series: Residuals
Sample 1980 2004
Observations 25

10

Mean
Median
Maximum
Minimum
Std. Dev.
Skewness
Kurtosis

8
6
4
2

1.36E-09
-716.8945
63204.41
-121645.3
36129.46
-1.308817
6.569998

Jarque-Bera 20.41343
Probability 0.000037

0
-100000

-50000

0

50000

Stability Tests
Ramsey RESET Test:
F-statistic
Log likelihood ratio

9.680642
22.80034

Probability
Probability

0.002664
0.000011

Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: D(PAD)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 07:34
Sample: 1980 2004
Included observations: 25
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
D(PDRB)
D(EM)
D(PPEM)
D(INV)
PDRB(-1)
EM(-1)
PPEM(-1)
INV(-1)
ECT
FITTED^2
FITTED^3

-186118.3
-0.004970
0.022393
-0.244006
-0.000196
0.133499
0.152545
0.021194
0.136005
-0.134690
9.72E-06
-1.52E-11

118949.1
0.004804
0.013106
0.673130
0.002116
0.407050
0.411117
0.290705
0.407574
0.407064
3.12E-06
8.71E-12

-1.564688
-1.034404
1.708589
-0.362494
-0.092668
0.327966
0.371050
0.072906
0.333693
-0.330881
3.111650
-1.750093

0.1417
0.3198
0.1113
0.7228
0.9276
0.7482
0.7166
0.9430
0.7439
0.7460
0.0083
0.1037

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.968463
0.941778
31113.89
1.26E+10
-285.9346
2.070372

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

74113.39
128946.9
23.83477
24.41983
36.29236
0.000000

Heteroskedasticity Test
White Heteroskedasticity Test:
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared

52.68647
24.84283

Probability
Probability

0.000039
0.129307

Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 07:35
Sample: 1980 2004
Included observations: 25
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
D(PDRB)
(D(PDRB))^2
D(EM)
(D(EM))^2
D(PPEM)
(D(PPEM))^2
D(INV)
(D(INV))^2
PDRB(-1)
PDRB(-1)^2
EM(-1)
EM(-1)^2
PPEM(-1)
PPEM(-1)^2
INV(-1)
INV(-1)^2
ECT
ECT^2

-4.97E+10
-199.4733
1.04E-05
-1051.135
3.01E-05
27557.53
-0.126130
52.90643
-8.78E-06
18526.97
1.35E-05
27132.18
-0.000376
41599.75
-0.073021
18980.59
8.37E-05
-18329.33
-1.10E-05

2.69E+10
445.0279
1.74E-05
257.5275
0.000454
23192.16
0.081015
84.48677
6.28E-06
16230.60
9.39E-06
18667.68
0.000206
33565.10
0.074006
16111.25
2.52E-05
16276.21
6.48E-06

-1.848156
-0.448227
0.594015
-4.081642
0.066301
1.188226
-1.556867
0.626210
-1.398748
1.141484
1.436269
1.453431
-1.820593
1.239375
-0.986681
1.178096
3.316425
-1.126142
-1.704455

0.1141
0.6697
0.5742
0.0065
0.9493
0.2796
0.1705
0.5542
0.2114
0.2972
0.2009
0.1963
0.1185
0.2615
0.3619
0.2834
0.0161
0.3031
0.1392

0.993713
0.974852
4.79E+08
1.37E+18
-517.2976
2.809689

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

1.25E+09
3.02E+09
42.90381
43.83015
52.68647
0.000039

Multicolinearity Tests 1
Dependent Variable: D(PDRB)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 07:39
Sample(adjusted): 1980 2004
Included observations: 25 after adjusting endpoints
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
D(EM)
D(PPEM)
D(INV)
PDRB(-1)
EM(-1)
PPEM(-1)
INV(-1)
ECT

-2400371.
-0.948219
-63.33068
0.453311
77.27359
77.41927
-49.47897
77.10114
-77.05438

6412329.
0.882010
19.31652
0.088289
18.20700
18.24268
14.71921
18.20101
18.20915

-0.374337
-1.075066
-3.278576
5.134415
4.244170
4.243854
-3.361524
4.236092
-4.231630

0.7131
0.2983
0.0047
0.0001
0.0006
0.0006
0.0040
0.0006
0.0006

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.944871
0.917307
2188851.
7.67E+13
-394.8671
2.088429

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

7623587.
7611707.
32.30936
32.74816
34.27881
0.000000

Multicolinearity Tests 2
Dependent Variable: D(EM)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 07:39
Sample(adjusted): 1980 2004
Included observations: 25 after adjusting endpoints
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
D(PDRB)
D(PPEM)
D(INV)
PDRB(-1)
EM(-1)
PPEM(-1)
INV(-1)
ECT

1868456.
-0.071048
-2.616244
0.067105
7.476078
7.336892
-6.256158
7.504248
-7.456482

1699901.
0.066087
6.805308
0.035566
7.021963
7.045553
5.025134
7.010034
7.012397

1.099156
-1.075066
-0.384442
1.886789
1.064671
1.041351
-1.244973
1.070501
-1.063329

0.2880
0.2983
0.7057
0.0775
0.3028
0.3132
0.2311
0.3003
0.3034

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.517720
0.276580
599152.6
5.74E+12
-362.4767
2.253300

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

271253.7
704437.2
29.71813
30.15693
2.146971
0.092027

Multicolinearity Tests 3
Dependent Variable: D(PPEM)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 07:39
Sample(adjusted): 1980 2004
Included observations: 25 after adjusting endpoints
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
D(PDRB)
D(EM)
D(INV)
PDRB(-1)
EM(-1)
PPEM(-1)
INV(-1)
ECT

59607.85
-0.006345
-0.003498
0.003657
0.825360
0.816637
-0.705185
0.816590
-0.821490

62719.28
0.001935
0.009100
0.001110
0.167418
0.170866
0.077183
0.169529
0.167997

0.950391
-3.278576
-0.384442
3.294850
4.929945
4.779387
-9.136540
4.816804
-4.889900

0.3560
0.0047
0.7057
0.0046
0.0002
0.0002
0.0000
0.0002
0.0002

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.975882
0.963822
21909.53
7.68E+09
-279.7618
2.435374

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

52466.61
115189.4
23.10094
23.53974
80.92403
0.000000

Multicolinearity Tests 4
Dependent Variable: D(INV)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 07:40
Sample(adjusted): 1980 2004
Included observations: 25 after adjusting endpoints
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
D(PDRB)
D(EM)
D(PPEM)
PDRB(-1)
EM(-1)
PPEM(-1)
INV(-1)
ECT

4224774.
1.372800
2.712212
110.5359
-155.9973
-156.4019
90.60945
-155.9263
155.7195

11157781
0.267372
1.437475
33.54809
24.76171
24.76783
24.62439
24.67443
24.74647

0.378639
5.134415
1.886789
3.294850
-6.299941
-6.314721
3.679663
-6.319345
6.292596

0.7099
0.0001
0.0775
0.0046
0.0000
0.0000
0.0020
0.0000
0.0000

0.888021
0.832031
3809095.
2.32E+14
-408.7174
2.259970

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

1253611.
9294093.
33.41739
33.85619
15.86042
0.000003

Multicolinearity Tests 5
Dependent Variable: PDRB(-1)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 07:40
Sample(adjusted): 1980 2004
Included observations: 25 after adjusting endpoints
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
D(PDRB)
D(EM)
D(PPEM)
D(INV)
EM(-1)
PPEM(-1)
INV(-1)
ECT

15731.64
0.006853
0.008849
0.730615
-0.004569
-1.001620
0.508022
-0.998589
0.998545

60524.85
0.001615
0.008312
0.148199
0.000725
0.006132
0.129056
0.003047
0.001108

0.259920
4.244170
1.064671
4.929945
-6.299941
-163.3441
3.936434
-327.6844
901.4076

0.7982
0.0006
0.3028
0.0002
0.0000
0.0000
0.0012
0.0000
0.0000

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

1.000000
1.000000
20613.68
6.80E+09
-278.2376
2.514641

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

47305988
51299969
22.97901
23.41781
18579942
0.000000

Multicolinearity Tests 6
Dependent Variable: EM(-1)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 07:41
Sample(adjusted): 1980 2004
Included observations: 25 after adjusting endpoints
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
D(PDRB)
D(EM)
D(PPEM)
D(INV)
PDRB(-1)
PPEM(-1)
INV(-1)
ECT

21457.84
0.006840
0.008651
0.720125
-0.004563
-0.997784
0.498257
-0.996583
0.996414

60298.08
0.001612
0.008308
0.150673
0.000723
0.006108
0.130936
0.004555
0.005312

0.355863
4.243854
1.041351
4.779387
-6.314721
-163.3441
3.805362
-218.8095
187.5644

0.7266
0.0006
0.3132
0.0002
0.0000
0.0000
0.0016
0.0000
0.0000

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.999945
0.999918
20574.17
6.77E+09
-278.1897
2.512808

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

13564383
2267467.
22.97517
23.41397
36436.35
0.000000

Multicolinearity Tests 7
Dependent Variable: PPEM(-1)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/06 Time: 07:41
Sample(adjusted): 1980 2004
Included observations: 25 after adjusting endpoints
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
D(PDRB)
D(EM)
D(PPEM)
D(INV)
PDRB(-1)
EM(-1)
INV(-1)
ECT

113245.1
-0.008365
-0.014117
-1.189982
0.005059
0.968445
0.953482
0.956385
-0.962834

78811.44
0.002489
0.011339
0.130244
0.001375
0.246021
0.250563
0.248312
0.246697

1.436912
-3.361524
-1.244973
-9.136540
3.679663
3.936434
3.805362
3.851544
-3.902905

0.1700
0.0040
0.2311
0.0000
0.0020
0.0012
0.0016
0.0014
0.0013

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.991469
0.987203
28461.10
1.30E+10
-286.3022
2.138968

Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-st