Analisis Laporan Keuangan 03
8-1
A n a l i si s L a p or a n Keu a n ga n
BAB 8
“ Analisis Return
disampaikan oleh :
8-2
Return on Invested Capital
Pentingnya Joint Analysis
• Joint analysis adalah ketika suatu ukuran
yang dinilai memiliki hubungan dengan
ukuran lainnya.
• Return on invested capital (ROIC) atau
Return on Investment (ROI) adalah joint
analysis yang penting.
8-3
Return on Invested Capital
ROI Relation
• ROI berelasi dengan income, atau pengukur kinerja
lainnya untuk melihat level perusahaan dan sumber
pendanaan.
• ROI memungkinkan melakukan perbandingan terhadap
peluang-peluang alternatif investasi.
• Investasi yang lebih berisiko diekspektasikan to yield
akan memperoleh ROI yang lebih tinggi pula.
• ROI menggambarkan kemampuan perusahaan untuk
sukses, mendapatkan pendanaan, membayar kredit, dan
memberikan imbal hasil kepada pemilik.
8-4
Return on Invested Capital
Penggunaan ROI
ROI dapat digunakan untuk :
(1)
Mengukur
efektivitas
manajerial
(2)
(3)
(2)
(3)
measuring
Measure
Mengukur
Tolakfor
ukur saat
profitability
and
profitabilitas planning
melakukan
control
perencanaan
dan kontrol
8-5
Return on Invested Capital
Mengukur efektivitas manajerial
• Manajemen bertanggung jawab
terhadap seluruh aktivitas perusahaan.
• ROI adalah suatu pengukuran efektivitas
dalam aktivitas bisnis.
• Nilai ROI bergantung pada skill,
pendayagunaan sumber daya, dan motivasi
dari manajemen.
8-6
Return on Invested Capital
Mengukur Profitabilitas
• ROI merupakan
perusahaan
indikator
profitabilitas
• ROI menghubungkan ukuran-ukuran penting
: profit dengan pendanaan.
• ROI memperlihatkan return on invested
capital dari berbagai perspektif pendanaan.
8-7
Return on Invested Capital
Measuring for Planning and Control
ROI membantu manajer saat :
• Planning
• Budgeting
• Coordinating activities
• Evaluasi Peluang
• Kontrol
8-8
Komponen ROI
• Return on invested capital didefinisikan sbb:
Income
Invested Capital
8-9
Komponen ROI
Definisi Invested Capital
• Tidak ada pengukuran
universal atas invested
capital
• Pengukuran invested
capital yang berbeda,
merefleksikan
perspektif pengguna
yang berbeda pula.
8-10
Komponen ROI
Alternatif Pengukuran Invested Capital
Common Measures:
• Net Operating Assets
• Stockholders’ Equity
8-11
Komponen ROI
Net Operating Assets
• Perspektifnya adalah perusahaan
secara keseluruhan.
• Disebut re t ur n on ne t ope rat ing
a sse t s (RN OA)
RNOA:
Mengukur efisiensi/kinerja
operasional
Merefleksikan return on net
operating assets (diluar financial
assets/liabilities)
8-12
Komponen ROI
Common Equity Capital
• Perspektifnya adalah pemegang
modal
• Menampilkan efek dari penggunaan
hutang (leverage capital) terhadap return
pemegang modal
• Excludes all debt financing and
preferred equity
net income less preferred dividends
average common equity
8-13
Komponen ROI
Menghitung Invested Capital
• Biasanya
dihitung
menggunakan ave ra ge kapital
pada periode tersebut.
• Tipikal-nya
dengan
menambahkan jumlah invested
capital awal dan akhir periode
kemudian dibagi 2.
• Perhitungan yang lebih akurat
adalah dengan average interim
amount – kuartla atau bulanan.
8-14
Komponen ROI
Return on Net Operating Assets -- RNOA
NOPAT
(Beginning NOA + Ending NOA) / 2
Where
• NOPAT = Operating income x (1- tax rate)
• NOA
= net operating assets
8-15
Komponen ROI
Operating and nonoperating activities - Distinction
BALANCE SHEET
Operating assets ..................... OA Financial liabilities .................. FL
Less operating liabilities ........ (OL) Less financial assets ............. (FA)
Net financial obligations......... NFO
Stockholders’ equity................ SE
Net operating assets.............. NOA Net financing ................ NFO + SE
8-16
Komponen ROI
Return on Common Equity -- ROCE
Net income - Preferred dividends
(Beginning equity + Ending equity) / 2
Dimana:
• Equity adalah stockholder’s equity dikurangi
preferred stock
8-17
Menganalisis Return on Assets-ROA
Disaggregating RNOA
Return on operating assets =
Operating Profit margin x Operating Asset turnover
NOPAT
Avg. NOA
NOPAT
Sales
Sales Avg. NOA
Operating Profit margin: mengukur profitabilitas operasi terhadap
sales
Operating Asset turnover (utilization): mengukur efektivitas
Operating aset dalam menghasilkan sales.
8-18
Efek Operating Leverage dalam RNOA
OA
= operating assets
OLLEV = operating liabilities leverage ratio
(operating liabilities / NOA)
8-19
Profit Margin dan Asset Turnover
• Profit margin dan asset turnover adalah
interdependent
– Profit margin merupakan fungsi dari sales dan
operating expense.
• (selling price x units sold)
– Turnover juga merupakan funsi dari sales
• (sales/assets)
Analysis of Return on Net Operating Assets
Sales
$5,000,000 $10,000,000 $10,000,000
NOPAT
$500,000
$500,000
$100,000
NOA
$5,000,000 $5,000,000 $1,000,000
NOPAT margin
10%
5%
1%
NOA turnover
1
2
10
Return on net operating assets
10%
10%
10%
8-20
Profit Margin dan Asset Turnover
Relation between NOPAT Margin, NOA Turnover, and
Return on Net Operating Assets
8-21
Profit Margin dan Asset Turnover
Net operating Asset Turnover v/s
Net operating Profit Margin for Selected Industries
8-22
Analisis Return on Assets-ROA
8-23
Menganalisis Return on Assets-ROA
Disaggregating Profit Margin
Operating profit margin (OPM) =
NOPAT
Sales
Pretax PM = Pretax sales PM + Pretax other PM
8-24
Menganalisis Return on Assets-ROA
Disaggregating Profit Margin
• Gross Profit Margin : Merefleksikan persentase
gross profit terhadap sales
– Merefleksikan kemampuan perusahaan dalam
meningkatkan ataupun mempertahankan selling
price—nya.
– Penurunan margin dapat menindikasikan adanya
peningkatan persaingan atau produk perusahaan
kurang kompetitif dibandingkan pesaingnya.
• Selling Expenses
• General and Administrative Expenses
8-25
Menganalisis Return on Assets-ROA
Disaggregation of Asset Turnover
• Asset turnover mengukur intensitas
perusahaan mendayagunakan asetnya.
• Alat ukur yang relevan adalah seberapa
besar sales yang mampu dihasilkan.
Sales
average net operating assets
8-26
Menganalisis Return on Assets-ROA
Disaggregation of Asset Turnover
• Accounts Receivable turnover: Merefleksikan berapa
kali rata-rata A/R dibayarkan oleh konsumen dalam satu
periode.
– Accompanying ratio: Average collection period
• Inventories turnover: Merefleksikan berapa kali ratarata inventori terjual dalam satu periode
– Accompanying ratio: Average inventory days outstanding
• Long-term Operating Asset turnover: Merefleksikan
produktivitas long term operating assets.
• Accounts Payable turnover. Merefleksikan seberapa
cepat A/P dibayarkan.
– Accompanying ratio: Average payable days outstanding
8-27
Menganalisis Return on Assets-ROA
Disaggregation of Asset Turnover
Accounts receivable turnover = Sales/Average accounts receivable
Average collection period = Accounts receivable/Average daily sales
Inventory turnover = Cost of goods sold/Average inventory
Average inventory days outstanding = Inventory/Average daily cost of goods sold
Long-term operating asset turnover = Sales/Average long-term operating assets
Accounts payable turnover = Cost of goods sold/Average accounts payable
Average payable days outstanding = Accounts payable/Average daily cost of goods sold
Net operating working capital turnover = Net sales/Average net operating working capital
8-28
Menganalisis Return on Common EquityROCE
Perannya dalam Equity Valuation
Dapat ditulis kembali dalam fut ure ROCE:
Dimana ROCE sama dengan net income yang tersedia bagi
Common shareholders (setelah prefered dividend) dibagi dengan
Common equity di awal periode.
8-29
Menganalisis Return on Common EquityROCE
Disaggregating ROCE
8-30
Menganalisis Return on Common EquityROCE
Leverage dan ROCE
• Leverage refers to the extent of invested capital
from other than common shareholders. Leverage
merupakan tambahan invested capital dari sumber
lainnya diluar common shareholder.
• Jika capital suppliers (diluar common shareholder)
menerima kurang dari ROA, maka hal ini merupakan
benefit bagi common shareholder. Dan sebaliknya
terjadi jika capital suppliers menerima lebih dari
ROA.
• Semakin besar perbedaan return antara common
equity dan capital suppliers lainnya, maka hal ini
menunjukkan semakin sukses (tidak sukses)-nya
trading ekuitas.
8-31
Menganalisis Return on Common EquityROCE
Alternate View of ROCE Disaggregation
8-32
Menganalisis Return on Common EquityROCE
Menilai Pertumbuhan Ekuitas
Equity growth rate = Net income Preferred dividends Dividend payout
Average common stockholders’ equity
• Asumsi : % earnings retention
dan % dividend payout adalah
konstan.
• Mengukur pertumbuhan
common equity menggunakan
pertumbuhan earnings
retention
8-33
Menganalisis Return on Common EquityROCE
Menilai Pertumbuhan Ekuitas
Sustainable equity growth rate = ROCE (1 Payout rate)
Asumsikan bahwa internal
growth bergantung pada
earnings retention dan return
earned on the earnings retained.
8-34
Prospective Analysis
Pentingnya Prospective Analysis
Security Valuation - Model free cash flow dan
residual income membutuhkan estimasi laporan
keuangan di masa mendatang.
Management Assessment- Proyeksi kinerja
keuangan sangat dibutuhkan dalam menyusun
rencana strategis perusahaan.
Assessment of Solvency - Berguna bagi kreditur
untuk menilai kemampuan perusahaan dalam
memenuhi kewajibannya, baik jangka pendek maupun
jangka panjang.
8-35
Proses Proyeksi
Proyeksi Income Statement
Proyeksi sales adalah fungsi dari :
1) Tren di masa lalu
2) Ekspektasi tingkat aktivitas makroekonomi
3) Peta persaingan
4) New versus old store mix (strategic
initiatives)
8-36
Proses Proyeksi
Target Corporation Income Statements
(in millions)
Sales..........................................................................................
Cost of goods sold .....................................................................
Gross profit................................................................................
Selling, general and administrative expense .............................
Depreciation and amortization expense .....................................
Interest expense.........................................................................
Income before tax ......................................................................
Income tax expense....................................................................
Income (loss) from extraordinary items
and discontinued operations.................................................
Net income.................................................................................
Outstanding shares ...................................................................
Selected Ratios (in percent)
Sales growth............................................................................
Gross profit margin..................................................................
Selling, general and administrative expense/Sales .................
Depreciation expense/Gross prior-year PP&E ...........................
Interest expense/Prior-year long-term debt ..............................
Income tax expense/Pretax income...........................................
2005
$46,839
31,445
15,394
10,534
1,259
570
3,031
1,146
2004
$42,025
28,389
13,636
9,379
1,098
556
2,603
984
2003
$37,410
25,498
11,912
8,134
967
584
2,227
851
1,313
$ 3,198
891
190
$ 1,809
912
247
$ 1,623
910
11.455%
32.866
22.49
6.333
5.173
37.809
12.336%
32.447
22.318
5.245
4.982
37.803
8-37
Proses Proyeksi
Proyeksi Income Statement
Steps:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Proyeksikan sales
Proyeksikan cost of goods sold dan gross profit margins
berdasarkan historical averages dalam persentase
terhadap sales
Proyeksikan SG&A expenses berdasarkan historical
averages as a percent of sales.
Proyeksikan biaya depresiasi berdasarkan historical
average percentage dari nilai aset terdepresiasi di awal
tahun
Proyeksikan biaya bunga berdasarkan persentase interest
bearing debt di awal tahun dan tingkat bunga saat ini (jika
fixed) dan tingkat bunga proyeksi (jika tidak fixed).
Proyeksikan beban pajak berdasarkan rata-rata beban
pajak
terhadap
pre-tax
expense
di
tahuntahun
sebelumnya.
8-38
Proses Proyeksi
Target Corporation Projected Income Statement
Sales: $52,204 = $46,839 x 1.11455
Gross profit: $17,157 = $52,204 x 32.866%
Cost of goods sold: $35,047 = $52,204 - $17,157
Selling, general, and administrative: $11,741 = $52,204 x 22.49%
Depreciation and amortization: $1,410 =
$22,272 (beginning-period PP&E gross) x 6.333%
6. Interest: $493 = $9,538 (beginning-period interest-bearing debt) x 5.173%
7. Income before tax: $3,513 = $17,157 - $11,741 - $1,410 - $493
8. Tax expense: $1,328 = $3,513 x 37.809%
9. Extraordinary and discontinued items: none
10. Net income: $2,185 = $3,513 - $1,328
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
8-39
Proses Proyeksi
Target Corporation Projected Income Statement
(in millions)
Forecasting Step
Income statement
Total revenues.........................................................................................
1
Cost of goods sold ..................................................................................
3
Gross profit.............................................................................................
2
Selling, general, and administrative expense ............................................
4
Depreciation and amortization expense ..................................................
5
Interest expense......................................................................................
6
7
Income before tax ...................................................................................
8
Income tax expense.................................................................................
Income (loss) from extraordinary items and discontinued operations ......
9
Net income..............................................................................................
10
Outstanding shares .........................................................................
Forecasting Assumptions (in percent)
Sales growth...........................................................................................
Gross profit margin.................................................................................
Selling, general, and administrative expense/Sales ...............................
Depreciation expense/Gross prior-year PP&E ..........................................
Interest expense/Prior-year long-term debt.............................................
Income tax expense/Pretax income .........................................................
2006 Estimate
$52,204
35,047
17,157
11,741
1,410
493
3,513
1,328
0
$ 2,185
891
1
1
1
1
1
1
11.455%
32.866
22.49
6.333
5.173
37.809
8-40
Proses Proyeksi
Proyeksi Balance Sheet
Steps:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Proyeksikan current assets diluar kas, berdasarkan
proyeksi sales atau COGS dan rasio turnover yang
sesuai.
Proyeksikan naiknya PP&E (Fixed Assets) berdasarkan
estimasi historical trends capital expenditure (biaya
modal)
Proyeksikan current liabilities, berdasarkan sales atau
COGS dan gunakan juga rasio turnover yang sesuai.
Cari tahu jatuh tempo long-term debt dari catatan
laporan keuangan.
Asumsikan tidak ada perubahan nilai balance dari tahun
sebelumnya, kecuali short-term indebtedness dan jika
ada tren khusus yang dicatatkan (noticeable trends)
(continued)
8-41
Proses Proyeksi
Proyeksi Balance Sheet
Steps:
6.
Asumsikan initial long-term debt balance adalah sama dengan
long term debt di tahun sebelumnya dikurangi hutang yang jatuh
tempo pada tahun tersebut.
7. Asumsikan nilai balance dari kewajiban jangka panjang lainnya
adalah sama dengan nilai di tahun sebelumnya kecuali ada tren
khusus yang dicatatkan (noticeable trends)
8. Asumsikan estimasi initial common stock adalah sama dengan
tahun sebelumnya.
9. Asumsikan nilai retained earnings adalah sama dengan retained
earning tahun sebelumnya ditambah (dikurangi) net profit (loss)
dan dikurangi juga dengan ekspektasi dividen yang dibayarkan.
10. Assume other equity accounts are equal to the prior year’s
balance unless they have exhibited noticeable trends. jatuh
tempo pada tahun tersebut.
11. Asumsikan nilai balance dari equity lainnya adalah sama dengan
nilai di tahun sebelumnya kecuali ada tren khusus yang
dicatatkan (noticeable trends)
8-42
Proses Proyeksi
Target Corporation Balance Sheet
(in millions)
2005
Cash ......................................................................... $ 2,245
Receivables ...............................................................
5,069
Inventories ..............................................................
5,384
Other current assets ................................................
1,224
Total current assets...............................................
13,922
Property, plant, and equipment (PP&E).................... 22,272
Accumulated depreciation .....................................
5,412
Net property, plant, and equipment ............................ 16,860
Other assets ..........................................................
1,511
Total assets .............................................................. $32,293
Accounts payable..................................................... $ 5,779
Current portion of long-term debt................................
504
Accrued expenses ...................................................
1,633
Income taxes & other ...............................................
304
Total current liabilities ...............................................
8,220
Deferred income taxes and other liabilities............
2,010
Long-term debt.......................................................
9,034
Total liabilities .........................................................
19,264
Common stock ..........................................................
74
Additional paid-in capital............................................
1,810
Retained earnings ..................................................
11,145
Shareholders’ equity.................................................
13,029
Total liabilities and net worth ......................................
$32,293
2004
$ 708
4,621
4,531
3,092
12,952
19,880
4,727
15,153
3,311
$31,416
$ 4,956
863
1,288
1,207
8,314
1,815
10,155
20,284
76
1,530
9,526
11,132
$31,416
2003
$ 758
5,565
4,760
852
11,935
20,936
5,629
15,307
1,361
$28,603
$ 4,684
975
1,545
319
7,523
1,451
10,186
19,160
76
1,256
8,111
9,443
$28,603
Selected Ratios
Accounts receivable turnover rate.........................
9.240
Inventory turnover rate..............................................
5.840
Accounts payable turnover rate ...............................
5.441
Accrued expenses turnover rate ...........................
28.683
Taxes payable/Tax expense.................................. 26.527%
Dividends per share ................................................
$ 0.310
Capital expenditures (CAPEX)—in millions ...........
3,012
CAPEX/Sales .........................................................
6.431%
9.094
6.266
5.728
32.628
122.663%
$ 0.260
2,671
6.356%
6.722
5.357
5.444
24.214
37.485%
$ 0.240
3,189
8.524%
8-43
Proses Proyeksi
Steps in Projection (Target)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Receivables: $5,650 = $52,204 (Sales)/9.24 (Receivable turnover).
Inventories: $6,001 = $35,047 (Cost of goods sold)/5.84 (Inventory turnover).
Other current assets: no change.
PP&E: $25,629 = $22,272 (Prior year’s balance) + $3,357 (Capital expenditure
estimate: estimated sales of $52,204 = 6.431% CAPEX/sales percentage).
Accumulated depreciation: $6,822 = $5,412 (Prior balance) + $1,410 (Depreciation
estimate).
Net PP&E: $18,807 = $25,629 - $6,822.
Other long-term assets: no change.
Accounts payable: $6,441 = $35,047 (Cost of goods sold)/5.441 (Payable
turnover).
Current portion of long-term debt: amount reported in long-term debt footnote
as the current maturity for 2006.
Accrued expenses: $1,820 $52,204 (Sales)/28.683 (Accrued expense turnover).
Taxes payable: $352 = $1,328 (Tax expense) x 26.527% (Tax payable/Tax
expense).
Deferred income taxes and other liabilities: no change.
Long-term debt: $8,283 = $9,034 (Prior year’s long-term debt) - $751 (Scheduled
current maturities from step 9).
Common stock: no change.
Additional paid-in capital: no change.
Retained earnings: $13,054 = $11,145 (Prior year’s retained earnings) + $2,185
(Projected net income) - $276 (Estimated dividends of $0.31 per share x 891
million shares).
Cash: amount needed to balance total liabilities and equity less steps (1)–(7).
8-44
Proses Proyeksi
Target Corporation Balance Sheet
Forecasting
(in millions)
Step
17
Cash ........................................................................
1
Receivables ...............................................................
2
Inventories.................................................................
3
Other current assets ..................................................
Total current assets .....................................
4
Property, plant, and equipment..................................
5
Accumulated depreciation .........................................
6
Net property, plant, and equipment ...........................
7
Other assets ..............................................................
Total assets ................................................
8
Accounts payable.......................................................
9
Current portion of long-term debt..............................
Accrued expenses ...................................................... 10
11
Income taxes & other .................................................
Total current liabilities....................................
12
Deferred income taxes and other liabilities................
13
Long-term debt..........................................................
Total liabilities .............................................
14
Common stock ...........................................................
15
Additional paid-in capital..........................................
16
Retained earnings .....................................................
Shareholders’ equity ......................................
Total liabilities and net worth.........................
Selected Ratios
Accounts receivable turnover rate....................
Inventory turnover rate....................................
Accounts payable turnover rate .......................
Accrued expenses turnover rate ......................
Taxes payable/Tax expense.............................
Dividends per share.........................................
Capital expenditures (CAPEX)—in millions.........
CAPEX/Sales .................................................
2006
Estimate
$ 1,402
5,650
6,001
1,224
14,277
25,629
6,822
18,807
1,511
$34,595
$ 6,441
751
1,820
352
9,364
2,010
8,283
19,657
74
1,810
13,054
14,938
$34,595
2005
$ 2,245
5,069
5,384
1,224
13,922
22,272
5,412
16,860
1,511
$32,293
$ 5,779
504
1,633
304
8,220
2,010
9,034
19,264
74
1,810
11,145
13,029
$32,293
9.240
5.840
5.441
28.683
26.527%
$ 0.310
3,357
6.431%
9.240
5.840
5.441
28.683
26.527%
$ 0.310
3,012
6.431%
8-45
Proses Proyeksi
Proyeksi Balance Sheet
•
Jika estimasi cash balance lebih besar atau
lebih kecil, maka adjustment selanjutnya yang
harus dibuat adalah :
1. Investasikan excess cash ke dalam marketable
securities.
2. Kurangi nilai long term debt dan/atau ekuitas tetapi
secara proporsional untuk mempertahankan
persentase financial leverage dari tahun
sebelumnya
8-46
Proses Proyeksi
Target Corporation Projected Statement of Cash Flows
8-47
Proses Proyeksi
Sensitivity Analysis
• Untuk mencari tahun asumsi proyeksi yang
manakah yang memiliki efek terbesar
terhadap projected profits dan cash flows.
• Menguji variabel-variabel yang berpengaruh
• Mempersiapkan skenario ekspektasi,
optimistis, dan pesimistis untuk merancang
beragam kemungkinan hasil.
8-48
Mengaplikasikan Prospective Analysis dalam
Residual Income Valuation Model
Residual Income Valuation Model mendefinisikan nilai
ekuitas pada waktu t sebagai penjumlahan dari nilai
buku ekuitas saat ini dan pesent value expected
resdidual income di masa mendatang.
•
•
•
•
Dimana :
BVt adalah nilai buku di akhir periode t
RIt + n adalah residual income pada periode t + n
k = cost of capital
RIt = NIt - (k x BVt - 1).
8-49
Mengaplikasikan Prospective Analysis
dalam Residual Income Valuation Model
Dalam bentuk yang lebih sederhana, kita
dapat melakukan valuasi dengan
memproyeksikan parameter-parameter di
bawah ini :
-Sales growth.
-Net profit margin (Net income/Sales).
-Net working capital turnover (Sales/Net WC).
-Fixed-asset turnover (Sales/Fixed assets).
-Financial leverage (Operating assets/Equity).
-Cost of equity capital
9-50
8-50
8-51
Tren atas Value Drivers
The Residual Income valuation model mendefinikan residual
income sbb :
RIt
= NIt – (k X BVt-1)
= (ROEt – k) X BVt-1
Dimana,
ROE = NI/BVt-1
-
Stock price akan terpengaruh jika ROE k
Shareholder value dapat tercipta jika ROE > k
ROE dikendalikan (value driver) oleh komponen-komponennya,
yaitu :
- Net Profit Margin
- Asset Turnover
- Financial leverage
8-52
Tren atas Value Drivers
Reversion of ROE
8-53
Tren atas Value Drivers
Reversion of Net Profit Margin
8-54
Tren atas Value Drivers
Reversion of Total Asset Turnover
A n a l i si s L a p or a n Keu a n ga n
BAB 8
“ Analisis Return
disampaikan oleh :
8-2
Return on Invested Capital
Pentingnya Joint Analysis
• Joint analysis adalah ketika suatu ukuran
yang dinilai memiliki hubungan dengan
ukuran lainnya.
• Return on invested capital (ROIC) atau
Return on Investment (ROI) adalah joint
analysis yang penting.
8-3
Return on Invested Capital
ROI Relation
• ROI berelasi dengan income, atau pengukur kinerja
lainnya untuk melihat level perusahaan dan sumber
pendanaan.
• ROI memungkinkan melakukan perbandingan terhadap
peluang-peluang alternatif investasi.
• Investasi yang lebih berisiko diekspektasikan to yield
akan memperoleh ROI yang lebih tinggi pula.
• ROI menggambarkan kemampuan perusahaan untuk
sukses, mendapatkan pendanaan, membayar kredit, dan
memberikan imbal hasil kepada pemilik.
8-4
Return on Invested Capital
Penggunaan ROI
ROI dapat digunakan untuk :
(1)
Mengukur
efektivitas
manajerial
(2)
(3)
(2)
(3)
measuring
Measure
Mengukur
Tolakfor
ukur saat
profitability
and
profitabilitas planning
melakukan
control
perencanaan
dan kontrol
8-5
Return on Invested Capital
Mengukur efektivitas manajerial
• Manajemen bertanggung jawab
terhadap seluruh aktivitas perusahaan.
• ROI adalah suatu pengukuran efektivitas
dalam aktivitas bisnis.
• Nilai ROI bergantung pada skill,
pendayagunaan sumber daya, dan motivasi
dari manajemen.
8-6
Return on Invested Capital
Mengukur Profitabilitas
• ROI merupakan
perusahaan
indikator
profitabilitas
• ROI menghubungkan ukuran-ukuran penting
: profit dengan pendanaan.
• ROI memperlihatkan return on invested
capital dari berbagai perspektif pendanaan.
8-7
Return on Invested Capital
Measuring for Planning and Control
ROI membantu manajer saat :
• Planning
• Budgeting
• Coordinating activities
• Evaluasi Peluang
• Kontrol
8-8
Komponen ROI
• Return on invested capital didefinisikan sbb:
Income
Invested Capital
8-9
Komponen ROI
Definisi Invested Capital
• Tidak ada pengukuran
universal atas invested
capital
• Pengukuran invested
capital yang berbeda,
merefleksikan
perspektif pengguna
yang berbeda pula.
8-10
Komponen ROI
Alternatif Pengukuran Invested Capital
Common Measures:
• Net Operating Assets
• Stockholders’ Equity
8-11
Komponen ROI
Net Operating Assets
• Perspektifnya adalah perusahaan
secara keseluruhan.
• Disebut re t ur n on ne t ope rat ing
a sse t s (RN OA)
RNOA:
Mengukur efisiensi/kinerja
operasional
Merefleksikan return on net
operating assets (diluar financial
assets/liabilities)
8-12
Komponen ROI
Common Equity Capital
• Perspektifnya adalah pemegang
modal
• Menampilkan efek dari penggunaan
hutang (leverage capital) terhadap return
pemegang modal
• Excludes all debt financing and
preferred equity
net income less preferred dividends
average common equity
8-13
Komponen ROI
Menghitung Invested Capital
• Biasanya
dihitung
menggunakan ave ra ge kapital
pada periode tersebut.
• Tipikal-nya
dengan
menambahkan jumlah invested
capital awal dan akhir periode
kemudian dibagi 2.
• Perhitungan yang lebih akurat
adalah dengan average interim
amount – kuartla atau bulanan.
8-14
Komponen ROI
Return on Net Operating Assets -- RNOA
NOPAT
(Beginning NOA + Ending NOA) / 2
Where
• NOPAT = Operating income x (1- tax rate)
• NOA
= net operating assets
8-15
Komponen ROI
Operating and nonoperating activities - Distinction
BALANCE SHEET
Operating assets ..................... OA Financial liabilities .................. FL
Less operating liabilities ........ (OL) Less financial assets ............. (FA)
Net financial obligations......... NFO
Stockholders’ equity................ SE
Net operating assets.............. NOA Net financing ................ NFO + SE
8-16
Komponen ROI
Return on Common Equity -- ROCE
Net income - Preferred dividends
(Beginning equity + Ending equity) / 2
Dimana:
• Equity adalah stockholder’s equity dikurangi
preferred stock
8-17
Menganalisis Return on Assets-ROA
Disaggregating RNOA
Return on operating assets =
Operating Profit margin x Operating Asset turnover
NOPAT
Avg. NOA
NOPAT
Sales
Sales Avg. NOA
Operating Profit margin: mengukur profitabilitas operasi terhadap
sales
Operating Asset turnover (utilization): mengukur efektivitas
Operating aset dalam menghasilkan sales.
8-18
Efek Operating Leverage dalam RNOA
OA
= operating assets
OLLEV = operating liabilities leverage ratio
(operating liabilities / NOA)
8-19
Profit Margin dan Asset Turnover
• Profit margin dan asset turnover adalah
interdependent
– Profit margin merupakan fungsi dari sales dan
operating expense.
• (selling price x units sold)
– Turnover juga merupakan funsi dari sales
• (sales/assets)
Analysis of Return on Net Operating Assets
Sales
$5,000,000 $10,000,000 $10,000,000
NOPAT
$500,000
$500,000
$100,000
NOA
$5,000,000 $5,000,000 $1,000,000
NOPAT margin
10%
5%
1%
NOA turnover
1
2
10
Return on net operating assets
10%
10%
10%
8-20
Profit Margin dan Asset Turnover
Relation between NOPAT Margin, NOA Turnover, and
Return on Net Operating Assets
8-21
Profit Margin dan Asset Turnover
Net operating Asset Turnover v/s
Net operating Profit Margin for Selected Industries
8-22
Analisis Return on Assets-ROA
8-23
Menganalisis Return on Assets-ROA
Disaggregating Profit Margin
Operating profit margin (OPM) =
NOPAT
Sales
Pretax PM = Pretax sales PM + Pretax other PM
8-24
Menganalisis Return on Assets-ROA
Disaggregating Profit Margin
• Gross Profit Margin : Merefleksikan persentase
gross profit terhadap sales
– Merefleksikan kemampuan perusahaan dalam
meningkatkan ataupun mempertahankan selling
price—nya.
– Penurunan margin dapat menindikasikan adanya
peningkatan persaingan atau produk perusahaan
kurang kompetitif dibandingkan pesaingnya.
• Selling Expenses
• General and Administrative Expenses
8-25
Menganalisis Return on Assets-ROA
Disaggregation of Asset Turnover
• Asset turnover mengukur intensitas
perusahaan mendayagunakan asetnya.
• Alat ukur yang relevan adalah seberapa
besar sales yang mampu dihasilkan.
Sales
average net operating assets
8-26
Menganalisis Return on Assets-ROA
Disaggregation of Asset Turnover
• Accounts Receivable turnover: Merefleksikan berapa
kali rata-rata A/R dibayarkan oleh konsumen dalam satu
periode.
– Accompanying ratio: Average collection period
• Inventories turnover: Merefleksikan berapa kali ratarata inventori terjual dalam satu periode
– Accompanying ratio: Average inventory days outstanding
• Long-term Operating Asset turnover: Merefleksikan
produktivitas long term operating assets.
• Accounts Payable turnover. Merefleksikan seberapa
cepat A/P dibayarkan.
– Accompanying ratio: Average payable days outstanding
8-27
Menganalisis Return on Assets-ROA
Disaggregation of Asset Turnover
Accounts receivable turnover = Sales/Average accounts receivable
Average collection period = Accounts receivable/Average daily sales
Inventory turnover = Cost of goods sold/Average inventory
Average inventory days outstanding = Inventory/Average daily cost of goods sold
Long-term operating asset turnover = Sales/Average long-term operating assets
Accounts payable turnover = Cost of goods sold/Average accounts payable
Average payable days outstanding = Accounts payable/Average daily cost of goods sold
Net operating working capital turnover = Net sales/Average net operating working capital
8-28
Menganalisis Return on Common EquityROCE
Perannya dalam Equity Valuation
Dapat ditulis kembali dalam fut ure ROCE:
Dimana ROCE sama dengan net income yang tersedia bagi
Common shareholders (setelah prefered dividend) dibagi dengan
Common equity di awal periode.
8-29
Menganalisis Return on Common EquityROCE
Disaggregating ROCE
8-30
Menganalisis Return on Common EquityROCE
Leverage dan ROCE
• Leverage refers to the extent of invested capital
from other than common shareholders. Leverage
merupakan tambahan invested capital dari sumber
lainnya diluar common shareholder.
• Jika capital suppliers (diluar common shareholder)
menerima kurang dari ROA, maka hal ini merupakan
benefit bagi common shareholder. Dan sebaliknya
terjadi jika capital suppliers menerima lebih dari
ROA.
• Semakin besar perbedaan return antara common
equity dan capital suppliers lainnya, maka hal ini
menunjukkan semakin sukses (tidak sukses)-nya
trading ekuitas.
8-31
Menganalisis Return on Common EquityROCE
Alternate View of ROCE Disaggregation
8-32
Menganalisis Return on Common EquityROCE
Menilai Pertumbuhan Ekuitas
Equity growth rate = Net income Preferred dividends Dividend payout
Average common stockholders’ equity
• Asumsi : % earnings retention
dan % dividend payout adalah
konstan.
• Mengukur pertumbuhan
common equity menggunakan
pertumbuhan earnings
retention
8-33
Menganalisis Return on Common EquityROCE
Menilai Pertumbuhan Ekuitas
Sustainable equity growth rate = ROCE (1 Payout rate)
Asumsikan bahwa internal
growth bergantung pada
earnings retention dan return
earned on the earnings retained.
8-34
Prospective Analysis
Pentingnya Prospective Analysis
Security Valuation - Model free cash flow dan
residual income membutuhkan estimasi laporan
keuangan di masa mendatang.
Management Assessment- Proyeksi kinerja
keuangan sangat dibutuhkan dalam menyusun
rencana strategis perusahaan.
Assessment of Solvency - Berguna bagi kreditur
untuk menilai kemampuan perusahaan dalam
memenuhi kewajibannya, baik jangka pendek maupun
jangka panjang.
8-35
Proses Proyeksi
Proyeksi Income Statement
Proyeksi sales adalah fungsi dari :
1) Tren di masa lalu
2) Ekspektasi tingkat aktivitas makroekonomi
3) Peta persaingan
4) New versus old store mix (strategic
initiatives)
8-36
Proses Proyeksi
Target Corporation Income Statements
(in millions)
Sales..........................................................................................
Cost of goods sold .....................................................................
Gross profit................................................................................
Selling, general and administrative expense .............................
Depreciation and amortization expense .....................................
Interest expense.........................................................................
Income before tax ......................................................................
Income tax expense....................................................................
Income (loss) from extraordinary items
and discontinued operations.................................................
Net income.................................................................................
Outstanding shares ...................................................................
Selected Ratios (in percent)
Sales growth............................................................................
Gross profit margin..................................................................
Selling, general and administrative expense/Sales .................
Depreciation expense/Gross prior-year PP&E ...........................
Interest expense/Prior-year long-term debt ..............................
Income tax expense/Pretax income...........................................
2005
$46,839
31,445
15,394
10,534
1,259
570
3,031
1,146
2004
$42,025
28,389
13,636
9,379
1,098
556
2,603
984
2003
$37,410
25,498
11,912
8,134
967
584
2,227
851
1,313
$ 3,198
891
190
$ 1,809
912
247
$ 1,623
910
11.455%
32.866
22.49
6.333
5.173
37.809
12.336%
32.447
22.318
5.245
4.982
37.803
8-37
Proses Proyeksi
Proyeksi Income Statement
Steps:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Proyeksikan sales
Proyeksikan cost of goods sold dan gross profit margins
berdasarkan historical averages dalam persentase
terhadap sales
Proyeksikan SG&A expenses berdasarkan historical
averages as a percent of sales.
Proyeksikan biaya depresiasi berdasarkan historical
average percentage dari nilai aset terdepresiasi di awal
tahun
Proyeksikan biaya bunga berdasarkan persentase interest
bearing debt di awal tahun dan tingkat bunga saat ini (jika
fixed) dan tingkat bunga proyeksi (jika tidak fixed).
Proyeksikan beban pajak berdasarkan rata-rata beban
pajak
terhadap
pre-tax
expense
di
tahuntahun
sebelumnya.
8-38
Proses Proyeksi
Target Corporation Projected Income Statement
Sales: $52,204 = $46,839 x 1.11455
Gross profit: $17,157 = $52,204 x 32.866%
Cost of goods sold: $35,047 = $52,204 - $17,157
Selling, general, and administrative: $11,741 = $52,204 x 22.49%
Depreciation and amortization: $1,410 =
$22,272 (beginning-period PP&E gross) x 6.333%
6. Interest: $493 = $9,538 (beginning-period interest-bearing debt) x 5.173%
7. Income before tax: $3,513 = $17,157 - $11,741 - $1,410 - $493
8. Tax expense: $1,328 = $3,513 x 37.809%
9. Extraordinary and discontinued items: none
10. Net income: $2,185 = $3,513 - $1,328
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
8-39
Proses Proyeksi
Target Corporation Projected Income Statement
(in millions)
Forecasting Step
Income statement
Total revenues.........................................................................................
1
Cost of goods sold ..................................................................................
3
Gross profit.............................................................................................
2
Selling, general, and administrative expense ............................................
4
Depreciation and amortization expense ..................................................
5
Interest expense......................................................................................
6
7
Income before tax ...................................................................................
8
Income tax expense.................................................................................
Income (loss) from extraordinary items and discontinued operations ......
9
Net income..............................................................................................
10
Outstanding shares .........................................................................
Forecasting Assumptions (in percent)
Sales growth...........................................................................................
Gross profit margin.................................................................................
Selling, general, and administrative expense/Sales ...............................
Depreciation expense/Gross prior-year PP&E ..........................................
Interest expense/Prior-year long-term debt.............................................
Income tax expense/Pretax income .........................................................
2006 Estimate
$52,204
35,047
17,157
11,741
1,410
493
3,513
1,328
0
$ 2,185
891
1
1
1
1
1
1
11.455%
32.866
22.49
6.333
5.173
37.809
8-40
Proses Proyeksi
Proyeksi Balance Sheet
Steps:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Proyeksikan current assets diluar kas, berdasarkan
proyeksi sales atau COGS dan rasio turnover yang
sesuai.
Proyeksikan naiknya PP&E (Fixed Assets) berdasarkan
estimasi historical trends capital expenditure (biaya
modal)
Proyeksikan current liabilities, berdasarkan sales atau
COGS dan gunakan juga rasio turnover yang sesuai.
Cari tahu jatuh tempo long-term debt dari catatan
laporan keuangan.
Asumsikan tidak ada perubahan nilai balance dari tahun
sebelumnya, kecuali short-term indebtedness dan jika
ada tren khusus yang dicatatkan (noticeable trends)
(continued)
8-41
Proses Proyeksi
Proyeksi Balance Sheet
Steps:
6.
Asumsikan initial long-term debt balance adalah sama dengan
long term debt di tahun sebelumnya dikurangi hutang yang jatuh
tempo pada tahun tersebut.
7. Asumsikan nilai balance dari kewajiban jangka panjang lainnya
adalah sama dengan nilai di tahun sebelumnya kecuali ada tren
khusus yang dicatatkan (noticeable trends)
8. Asumsikan estimasi initial common stock adalah sama dengan
tahun sebelumnya.
9. Asumsikan nilai retained earnings adalah sama dengan retained
earning tahun sebelumnya ditambah (dikurangi) net profit (loss)
dan dikurangi juga dengan ekspektasi dividen yang dibayarkan.
10. Assume other equity accounts are equal to the prior year’s
balance unless they have exhibited noticeable trends. jatuh
tempo pada tahun tersebut.
11. Asumsikan nilai balance dari equity lainnya adalah sama dengan
nilai di tahun sebelumnya kecuali ada tren khusus yang
dicatatkan (noticeable trends)
8-42
Proses Proyeksi
Target Corporation Balance Sheet
(in millions)
2005
Cash ......................................................................... $ 2,245
Receivables ...............................................................
5,069
Inventories ..............................................................
5,384
Other current assets ................................................
1,224
Total current assets...............................................
13,922
Property, plant, and equipment (PP&E).................... 22,272
Accumulated depreciation .....................................
5,412
Net property, plant, and equipment ............................ 16,860
Other assets ..........................................................
1,511
Total assets .............................................................. $32,293
Accounts payable..................................................... $ 5,779
Current portion of long-term debt................................
504
Accrued expenses ...................................................
1,633
Income taxes & other ...............................................
304
Total current liabilities ...............................................
8,220
Deferred income taxes and other liabilities............
2,010
Long-term debt.......................................................
9,034
Total liabilities .........................................................
19,264
Common stock ..........................................................
74
Additional paid-in capital............................................
1,810
Retained earnings ..................................................
11,145
Shareholders’ equity.................................................
13,029
Total liabilities and net worth ......................................
$32,293
2004
$ 708
4,621
4,531
3,092
12,952
19,880
4,727
15,153
3,311
$31,416
$ 4,956
863
1,288
1,207
8,314
1,815
10,155
20,284
76
1,530
9,526
11,132
$31,416
2003
$ 758
5,565
4,760
852
11,935
20,936
5,629
15,307
1,361
$28,603
$ 4,684
975
1,545
319
7,523
1,451
10,186
19,160
76
1,256
8,111
9,443
$28,603
Selected Ratios
Accounts receivable turnover rate.........................
9.240
Inventory turnover rate..............................................
5.840
Accounts payable turnover rate ...............................
5.441
Accrued expenses turnover rate ...........................
28.683
Taxes payable/Tax expense.................................. 26.527%
Dividends per share ................................................
$ 0.310
Capital expenditures (CAPEX)—in millions ...........
3,012
CAPEX/Sales .........................................................
6.431%
9.094
6.266
5.728
32.628
122.663%
$ 0.260
2,671
6.356%
6.722
5.357
5.444
24.214
37.485%
$ 0.240
3,189
8.524%
8-43
Proses Proyeksi
Steps in Projection (Target)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Receivables: $5,650 = $52,204 (Sales)/9.24 (Receivable turnover).
Inventories: $6,001 = $35,047 (Cost of goods sold)/5.84 (Inventory turnover).
Other current assets: no change.
PP&E: $25,629 = $22,272 (Prior year’s balance) + $3,357 (Capital expenditure
estimate: estimated sales of $52,204 = 6.431% CAPEX/sales percentage).
Accumulated depreciation: $6,822 = $5,412 (Prior balance) + $1,410 (Depreciation
estimate).
Net PP&E: $18,807 = $25,629 - $6,822.
Other long-term assets: no change.
Accounts payable: $6,441 = $35,047 (Cost of goods sold)/5.441 (Payable
turnover).
Current portion of long-term debt: amount reported in long-term debt footnote
as the current maturity for 2006.
Accrued expenses: $1,820 $52,204 (Sales)/28.683 (Accrued expense turnover).
Taxes payable: $352 = $1,328 (Tax expense) x 26.527% (Tax payable/Tax
expense).
Deferred income taxes and other liabilities: no change.
Long-term debt: $8,283 = $9,034 (Prior year’s long-term debt) - $751 (Scheduled
current maturities from step 9).
Common stock: no change.
Additional paid-in capital: no change.
Retained earnings: $13,054 = $11,145 (Prior year’s retained earnings) + $2,185
(Projected net income) - $276 (Estimated dividends of $0.31 per share x 891
million shares).
Cash: amount needed to balance total liabilities and equity less steps (1)–(7).
8-44
Proses Proyeksi
Target Corporation Balance Sheet
Forecasting
(in millions)
Step
17
Cash ........................................................................
1
Receivables ...............................................................
2
Inventories.................................................................
3
Other current assets ..................................................
Total current assets .....................................
4
Property, plant, and equipment..................................
5
Accumulated depreciation .........................................
6
Net property, plant, and equipment ...........................
7
Other assets ..............................................................
Total assets ................................................
8
Accounts payable.......................................................
9
Current portion of long-term debt..............................
Accrued expenses ...................................................... 10
11
Income taxes & other .................................................
Total current liabilities....................................
12
Deferred income taxes and other liabilities................
13
Long-term debt..........................................................
Total liabilities .............................................
14
Common stock ...........................................................
15
Additional paid-in capital..........................................
16
Retained earnings .....................................................
Shareholders’ equity ......................................
Total liabilities and net worth.........................
Selected Ratios
Accounts receivable turnover rate....................
Inventory turnover rate....................................
Accounts payable turnover rate .......................
Accrued expenses turnover rate ......................
Taxes payable/Tax expense.............................
Dividends per share.........................................
Capital expenditures (CAPEX)—in millions.........
CAPEX/Sales .................................................
2006
Estimate
$ 1,402
5,650
6,001
1,224
14,277
25,629
6,822
18,807
1,511
$34,595
$ 6,441
751
1,820
352
9,364
2,010
8,283
19,657
74
1,810
13,054
14,938
$34,595
2005
$ 2,245
5,069
5,384
1,224
13,922
22,272
5,412
16,860
1,511
$32,293
$ 5,779
504
1,633
304
8,220
2,010
9,034
19,264
74
1,810
11,145
13,029
$32,293
9.240
5.840
5.441
28.683
26.527%
$ 0.310
3,357
6.431%
9.240
5.840
5.441
28.683
26.527%
$ 0.310
3,012
6.431%
8-45
Proses Proyeksi
Proyeksi Balance Sheet
•
Jika estimasi cash balance lebih besar atau
lebih kecil, maka adjustment selanjutnya yang
harus dibuat adalah :
1. Investasikan excess cash ke dalam marketable
securities.
2. Kurangi nilai long term debt dan/atau ekuitas tetapi
secara proporsional untuk mempertahankan
persentase financial leverage dari tahun
sebelumnya
8-46
Proses Proyeksi
Target Corporation Projected Statement of Cash Flows
8-47
Proses Proyeksi
Sensitivity Analysis
• Untuk mencari tahun asumsi proyeksi yang
manakah yang memiliki efek terbesar
terhadap projected profits dan cash flows.
• Menguji variabel-variabel yang berpengaruh
• Mempersiapkan skenario ekspektasi,
optimistis, dan pesimistis untuk merancang
beragam kemungkinan hasil.
8-48
Mengaplikasikan Prospective Analysis dalam
Residual Income Valuation Model
Residual Income Valuation Model mendefinisikan nilai
ekuitas pada waktu t sebagai penjumlahan dari nilai
buku ekuitas saat ini dan pesent value expected
resdidual income di masa mendatang.
•
•
•
•
Dimana :
BVt adalah nilai buku di akhir periode t
RIt + n adalah residual income pada periode t + n
k = cost of capital
RIt = NIt - (k x BVt - 1).
8-49
Mengaplikasikan Prospective Analysis
dalam Residual Income Valuation Model
Dalam bentuk yang lebih sederhana, kita
dapat melakukan valuasi dengan
memproyeksikan parameter-parameter di
bawah ini :
-Sales growth.
-Net profit margin (Net income/Sales).
-Net working capital turnover (Sales/Net WC).
-Fixed-asset turnover (Sales/Fixed assets).
-Financial leverage (Operating assets/Equity).
-Cost of equity capital
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8-50
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Tren atas Value Drivers
The Residual Income valuation model mendefinikan residual
income sbb :
RIt
= NIt – (k X BVt-1)
= (ROEt – k) X BVt-1
Dimana,
ROE = NI/BVt-1
-
Stock price akan terpengaruh jika ROE k
Shareholder value dapat tercipta jika ROE > k
ROE dikendalikan (value driver) oleh komponen-komponennya,
yaitu :
- Net Profit Margin
- Asset Turnover
- Financial leverage
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Tren atas Value Drivers
Reversion of ROE
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Tren atas Value Drivers
Reversion of Net Profit Margin
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Tren atas Value Drivers
Reversion of Total Asset Turnover