IMM presentation Indonesia workshop
FLEGT VPA Independent
Market Monitoring (IMM)
1
Presentation structure
• IMM background, role, progress
and outputs
• Draft baseline data
– Indonesia in international trade
– Indonesia in EU trade
• Concluding comments
2
IMM Background
•
•
•
•
•
IMM is a condition of some FLEGT VPAs
(including Indonesia)
Builds on IMM proposal by EFECA in EFIcommissioned report issued 2012
Funded by European Commission through
through DG International Cooperation and
Development
Budget: €4.4 million over 5 years (20142018)
Hosted by International Tropical Timber
Organisation (ITTO)
– Promotes expansion & diversification of trade in
tropical timber from sustainably managed and
legally harvested forests
– Membership = most producer & consumer
countries.
– Record of statistical capacity building, data 3
FLEGT VPA Partners
4
IMM Objectives
• Generate information that demonstrates changes in trade of
legally verified timber and timber products in the EU market
• Improve knowledge and understanding of the impacts of
VPAs on timber prices, trade and market trends globally
• Ensure VPA countries & EU provide reliable stats and info on
FLEGT timber trade and acceptance in their reporting
• Inform decisions by VPA Joint Implementation Committees
(JICs) by providing timely & accurate info on market impact
• Contribute to monitoring the impacts of the FLEGT Action
Plan and to inform its implementation
• Develop a long-term strategy for sustaining the IMM in
consultation with the EU and VPA partner countries
5
IMM Oversight & Guidance
• Project Steering Committee (PSC)
– Monitors IMM progress, review work plan and reports
– ITTO & EC representatives
– Observers e.g. EFI, Eurostat, interested government agencies
• Advisory Committee
– Advises on technical aspects, promotes coordination, facilitates
participation by stakeholders and communication of IMM activities.
– ITTO, FAO, UN-ECE, Eurostat, EFI, government agencies from EU & VPA
Partner countries, trade associations, other organisations interested in
timber market monitoring.
• Timber Market Monitoring Committee (TMMC)
– Facilitates info exchange, avoids duplication, improves market
monitoring practices & stats, common data protocols
– AC sub-group of organisations directly engaged in market monitoring
– ITTO, EFI, Eurostat, Indufor, ATIBT/IFIA, STTC, FAO, UNECE, Global
Timber Forum, Chatham House, WRI, & Forest Trends.
6
IMM Methodology
• Framework (currently in draft) of 52
indicators for quantitative
assessment of market impacts
7
33 EU-wide indicators
• Overall EU market for all FLEGT VPA timber
• Examples:
– market impact of EUTR implementation;
– scope and content of public sector procurement policies;
– timber procurement requirements established by EUTR
MOs, TTF’s & major retailers
– handling of VPA licenses in FSC and PEFC CoC standards
– perceptions of VPA licensed timber in design and
architectural community
– recognition of FLEGT VPAs in guidelines for assessment
of forest sector risk in the financial sector
8
19 VPA partner-specific
indicators
• Changing market for each VPA partner country
• Examples:
– monitoring of volume and value of trade flows
between the VPA partner country, the EU and other
markets;
– prices for specific indicator products from the partner
country;
– time to clear customs
– size and quality of investment in the VPA partner
country
– changing perceptions of timber from the partner
country resulting from VPA licensing.
9
Key operational issues
• Phased approach - progressively widen monitoring
against indicators as more licensed timber becomes
available & with rising awareness
• Close working relationship with JICs in VPA countries
• Network of IMM correspondents in VPA Partner
Countries & priority EU Member States reporting
regularly
• Additional surveys undertaken directly by IMM or by
other members of TMMC
• Linkage to trade associations in both producer and
consumer countries to encourage input from private
sector
10
IMM Progress
• Baseline report – 1st review draft end November 2014,
final report available Jan/February 2015
– VPA Partner Countries in international & EU trade 2004 to
2014
– Identify & preliminary review of factors driving change
• Liaison with VPA Partners – participation at Liberia
JIC & Ghana JMRM in May/June 2014, workshops
Indonesian Ministry of Forestry in November 2014,
Cameroon/Congo Republic 1st Qtr of 2015
• First Advisory Committee meeting planned 1st Qtr
2015 (likely Brussels)
• Preliminary negotiations with potential members of IMM
Correspondents Network
11
Improved access to
statistics
• Strengthen ITTO’s existing
capacity
• Responding to regular requests
from policy makers and private sector
• Supporting redevelopment of EFI
Forest Products Trade Flow
Database
– Based on global COMTRADE & EU
COMEXT data
– HS Chapters 44 (Wood), 47 (Pulp), 48
(Paper), 49 (Printed papers), 94
(Furniture)
– Validated - comparing unit values &
mirror export/import data
– Publicly available on ITTO and EFI
websites
– Data visualisation
12
Key IMM outputs
• Annual reports (First before end 2015)
– Current status of licensing in VPA Partner
countries
– Annual update of production and trade
data
– Overview major trade trends & issues
arising
– Systematic review against indicators
• Website
– www.itto.int/imm
– Quarterly e-news
– Production and
13
Draft baseline data:
Overview of tropical
timber trade
14
Source: IMM analysis of Global Trade Atlas & UN COMTRADE
15
Source: IMM analysis of Global Trade Atlas & UN COMTRADE
16
Source: IMM analysis of Global Trade Atlas & UN COMTRADE
17
Draft baseline data:
Indonesia in
International trade
18
Source: IMM analysis of Global Trade Atlas & UN COMTRADE
19
Source: IMM analysis of Global Trade Atlas & UN COMTRADE
20
Source: IMM analysis of Global Trade Atlas & UN COMTRADE
21
Source: IMM analysis of Global Trade Atlas & UN COMTRADE
22
Draft baseline data:
Indonesia
in EU trade
23
Source: IMM analysis of Eurostat COMEXT
24
Source: IMM analysis of Eurostat COMEXT
25
Eurostat construction production index
2010=100
26
Source: IMM analysis of Eurostat COMEXT
27
A Perfect Storm: drivers of tropical
hardwood market decline in Europe
28
Source: IMM analysis of Eurostat COMEXT
29
Source: IMM analysis of Eurostat COMEXT
30
Source: IMM analysis of Eurostat COMEXT
31
products
Monthly value (moving average) – March 2004 to
June 2014
€1 million (constant 2013 prices)
Red line = date of EUTR enforcement
32
Source: IMM analysis of Eurostat COMEXT
33
Concluding comments
•
Trade data yet to reveal direct EUTR impact
– Other commercial factors more in evidence
– Different interpretations – EUTR not yet effective? Tropical
forest regulation and/or trade due diligence already effective?
Data inadequate?
•
Significant gaps in information
– Limited availability & poor quality of production and trade
data
– Systematic assessments illegality risks for
countries/regions/products
– Data on flows of certified/verified legal timber
– Regular input from private sector - role for IMM
Correspondents network
•
Decline in relative role of EU in tropical trade (short
term?) reinforces:
– Importance of collective action on consumer side
34
– Need for more effective market development strategy in EU
Thank you!
IMM brochure available
www.itto.int/imm
Rupert
Oliver
[email protected]
35
Market Monitoring (IMM)
1
Presentation structure
• IMM background, role, progress
and outputs
• Draft baseline data
– Indonesia in international trade
– Indonesia in EU trade
• Concluding comments
2
IMM Background
•
•
•
•
•
IMM is a condition of some FLEGT VPAs
(including Indonesia)
Builds on IMM proposal by EFECA in EFIcommissioned report issued 2012
Funded by European Commission through
through DG International Cooperation and
Development
Budget: €4.4 million over 5 years (20142018)
Hosted by International Tropical Timber
Organisation (ITTO)
– Promotes expansion & diversification of trade in
tropical timber from sustainably managed and
legally harvested forests
– Membership = most producer & consumer
countries.
– Record of statistical capacity building, data 3
FLEGT VPA Partners
4
IMM Objectives
• Generate information that demonstrates changes in trade of
legally verified timber and timber products in the EU market
• Improve knowledge and understanding of the impacts of
VPAs on timber prices, trade and market trends globally
• Ensure VPA countries & EU provide reliable stats and info on
FLEGT timber trade and acceptance in their reporting
• Inform decisions by VPA Joint Implementation Committees
(JICs) by providing timely & accurate info on market impact
• Contribute to monitoring the impacts of the FLEGT Action
Plan and to inform its implementation
• Develop a long-term strategy for sustaining the IMM in
consultation with the EU and VPA partner countries
5
IMM Oversight & Guidance
• Project Steering Committee (PSC)
– Monitors IMM progress, review work plan and reports
– ITTO & EC representatives
– Observers e.g. EFI, Eurostat, interested government agencies
• Advisory Committee
– Advises on technical aspects, promotes coordination, facilitates
participation by stakeholders and communication of IMM activities.
– ITTO, FAO, UN-ECE, Eurostat, EFI, government agencies from EU & VPA
Partner countries, trade associations, other organisations interested in
timber market monitoring.
• Timber Market Monitoring Committee (TMMC)
– Facilitates info exchange, avoids duplication, improves market
monitoring practices & stats, common data protocols
– AC sub-group of organisations directly engaged in market monitoring
– ITTO, EFI, Eurostat, Indufor, ATIBT/IFIA, STTC, FAO, UNECE, Global
Timber Forum, Chatham House, WRI, & Forest Trends.
6
IMM Methodology
• Framework (currently in draft) of 52
indicators for quantitative
assessment of market impacts
7
33 EU-wide indicators
• Overall EU market for all FLEGT VPA timber
• Examples:
– market impact of EUTR implementation;
– scope and content of public sector procurement policies;
– timber procurement requirements established by EUTR
MOs, TTF’s & major retailers
– handling of VPA licenses in FSC and PEFC CoC standards
– perceptions of VPA licensed timber in design and
architectural community
– recognition of FLEGT VPAs in guidelines for assessment
of forest sector risk in the financial sector
8
19 VPA partner-specific
indicators
• Changing market for each VPA partner country
• Examples:
– monitoring of volume and value of trade flows
between the VPA partner country, the EU and other
markets;
– prices for specific indicator products from the partner
country;
– time to clear customs
– size and quality of investment in the VPA partner
country
– changing perceptions of timber from the partner
country resulting from VPA licensing.
9
Key operational issues
• Phased approach - progressively widen monitoring
against indicators as more licensed timber becomes
available & with rising awareness
• Close working relationship with JICs in VPA countries
• Network of IMM correspondents in VPA Partner
Countries & priority EU Member States reporting
regularly
• Additional surveys undertaken directly by IMM or by
other members of TMMC
• Linkage to trade associations in both producer and
consumer countries to encourage input from private
sector
10
IMM Progress
• Baseline report – 1st review draft end November 2014,
final report available Jan/February 2015
– VPA Partner Countries in international & EU trade 2004 to
2014
– Identify & preliminary review of factors driving change
• Liaison with VPA Partners – participation at Liberia
JIC & Ghana JMRM in May/June 2014, workshops
Indonesian Ministry of Forestry in November 2014,
Cameroon/Congo Republic 1st Qtr of 2015
• First Advisory Committee meeting planned 1st Qtr
2015 (likely Brussels)
• Preliminary negotiations with potential members of IMM
Correspondents Network
11
Improved access to
statistics
• Strengthen ITTO’s existing
capacity
• Responding to regular requests
from policy makers and private sector
• Supporting redevelopment of EFI
Forest Products Trade Flow
Database
– Based on global COMTRADE & EU
COMEXT data
– HS Chapters 44 (Wood), 47 (Pulp), 48
(Paper), 49 (Printed papers), 94
(Furniture)
– Validated - comparing unit values &
mirror export/import data
– Publicly available on ITTO and EFI
websites
– Data visualisation
12
Key IMM outputs
• Annual reports (First before end 2015)
– Current status of licensing in VPA Partner
countries
– Annual update of production and trade
data
– Overview major trade trends & issues
arising
– Systematic review against indicators
• Website
– www.itto.int/imm
– Quarterly e-news
– Production and
13
Draft baseline data:
Overview of tropical
timber trade
14
Source: IMM analysis of Global Trade Atlas & UN COMTRADE
15
Source: IMM analysis of Global Trade Atlas & UN COMTRADE
16
Source: IMM analysis of Global Trade Atlas & UN COMTRADE
17
Draft baseline data:
Indonesia in
International trade
18
Source: IMM analysis of Global Trade Atlas & UN COMTRADE
19
Source: IMM analysis of Global Trade Atlas & UN COMTRADE
20
Source: IMM analysis of Global Trade Atlas & UN COMTRADE
21
Source: IMM analysis of Global Trade Atlas & UN COMTRADE
22
Draft baseline data:
Indonesia
in EU trade
23
Source: IMM analysis of Eurostat COMEXT
24
Source: IMM analysis of Eurostat COMEXT
25
Eurostat construction production index
2010=100
26
Source: IMM analysis of Eurostat COMEXT
27
A Perfect Storm: drivers of tropical
hardwood market decline in Europe
28
Source: IMM analysis of Eurostat COMEXT
29
Source: IMM analysis of Eurostat COMEXT
30
Source: IMM analysis of Eurostat COMEXT
31
products
Monthly value (moving average) – March 2004 to
June 2014
€1 million (constant 2013 prices)
Red line = date of EUTR enforcement
32
Source: IMM analysis of Eurostat COMEXT
33
Concluding comments
•
Trade data yet to reveal direct EUTR impact
– Other commercial factors more in evidence
– Different interpretations – EUTR not yet effective? Tropical
forest regulation and/or trade due diligence already effective?
Data inadequate?
•
Significant gaps in information
– Limited availability & poor quality of production and trade
data
– Systematic assessments illegality risks for
countries/regions/products
– Data on flows of certified/verified legal timber
– Regular input from private sector - role for IMM
Correspondents network
•
Decline in relative role of EU in tropical trade (short
term?) reinforces:
– Importance of collective action on consumer side
34
– Need for more effective market development strategy in EU
Thank you!
IMM brochure available
www.itto.int/imm
Rupert
Oliver
[email protected]
35