Flood in Jakarta as Impact of Climate Change

10:3 Flood in Jakarta as Impact of Climate Change Dr. Armi Susandi, MT.

Head of Meteorology Department, ITB

Mini-Symposium: “Flood Risk and Adaptation in Jakarta” th OUTLINE 

Historical Data of Flood in Jakarta 

Vulnerable Areas of Flood in Jakarta 

Cause of Flood in Jakarta:

Tide Activity - Shipment Flood

 Accumulation of Floods in Jakarta

 Adaptation to impact of Climate Change in Jakarta

 Extended Area Research on West Java

Land Use Change and Climate Change in Citarum River - Sea Level Rise in Indramayu and Subang

7 1621 1654 1918 1942 1976 1996 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Historical Data of Flood in Jakarta Source : Flood Report of Department of Public Work, 2007 Year

F re q u e n c y

Banjir Jakarta Saat ini

78 Points of Inundated Area

Source : Department of Public Work, 2007

FLOW Source : Department of Public Work, 2007

Causes of Flood in Jakarta



Non Permanent (Short Term) - Flood in Jakarta is affected by tide activity.

Flood in Jakarta is caused by “Shipment Flood”.

 Permanent (Long Term) - Flood is caused by Sea Level Rise.

 Extremely event - Accumulation of floods from non permanent and permanent flood.

Flood in Jakarta as

Implication of Tide Activity

Penjaringan Pademangan Tanjung Priok Koja Cilincing Soekarno-Hatta Airport Monumen Nasional

Causes of Tidal Wave (ROB) Flood :

Map of Land Subsidence (1982-1997) PETA PENURUNAN MUKAN TANAH TAHUN 1982-1997

_N W E Penjaringan _S Koja

Pademangan Cilincing

4 Km Kalideres Tanjung Priok Taman Sari

Tambora Cengkareng Sawah Besar Kelapa Gading

Grogol Petamburan Kemayoran Gambir Cempaka Putih Senen

Cakung Kebon Jeruk Pulo Gadung Menteng

Kembangan Palmerah KETERANGAN :

Matraman Tanah Abang Administrasi Kecamatan Sungai

Setiabudi Penurunan Muka Tanah (Meter) : Jatinegara Kebayoran Baru Tebet

Duren Sawit 0.012 - 0.024 0.024 - 0.036 Pesanggrahan

Kebayoran BAru 0.036 - 0.048 Pancoran

Kebayoran Lama 0.048 - 0.06 Mampang Prapatan Makasar 0.06 - 0.072 0.072 - 0.084

Kramatjati 0.084 - 0.096 Pasar Minggu 0.096 - 0.108 Cilandak 0.108 - 0.12 Cipayung No Data Wilayah DKI Jakarta

Source : Dinas Pertambangan dan Energi Propinsi DKI Jakarta

Trend of Land Subsidence in Jakarta

Trend factor 

P en ur un an t an ah ( cm )

0.8 cm/year La nd S ub si de nc e (c m )

78 80

20 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Tahun

Year

Source : Priyambodo, 2005

Causes of Tidal Wave (ROB) Flood :

1. Land Subsidence

2. High Rainfall

Raifall in Jakarta will be increase caused by

a lot of water vapors . This situation is affected by warming over sea level.

Historical Data of Temperature

Change in Jakarta Region

Historical Data of Temperature Change in

Jakarta Region

00:00 GMT October 2008

01:00 GMT October 2008

02:00 GMT October 2008

03:00 GMT October 2008

04:00 GMT October 2008

05:00 GMT October 2008

06:00 GMT October 2008

07:00 GMT October 2008

08:00 GMT October 2008

09:00 GMT October 2008

10:00 GMT October 2008

11:00 GMT October 2008

12:00 GMT October 2008

13:00 GMT October 2008

14:00 GMT October 2008

15:00 GMT October 2008

16:00 GMT October 2008

17:00 GMT October 2008

18:00 GMT October 2008

19:00 GMT October 2008

20:00 GMT October 2008

21:00 GMT October 2008

22:00 GMT October 2008

23:00 GMT October 2008

Mean Rainfall Anomalies in Jakarta Region Rainfall Anomalies in Jakarta (1996-2005) 

Increase of rainfall is

occurred in rain season

( January ) over Jakarta

region during period of 1996-2005.

 The increase is range of 20-200 mm .

 The highest increase of the region is Pulogadung.

 Potency of flood occurrence will be high. Rainfall Anomalies in Jakarta (1996-2005) 

Period of Transition Season ( March ) will be increase of rainfall in high level over Jakarta and its surroundings.

 The increase will be range of 60-540 mm.

 South Jakarta to Bogor are region which have high increase of rainfall.

 Most of Shipment Flood come from Bogor. Projection of Rainfall Anomalies in Jakarta (1996-2035) 

The projection in rain season ( January ) from 1996 to 2035 shows increase of rainfall in North Jakarta Region .

 The increase is range of 10 – 110 mm .

 Potency of huge food will be occurred in North Jakarta. Projection of Rainfall Anomalies in Jakarta (1996-2035) 

There is increase of rainfall about 50 – 550 mm in South Jakarta region to Bogor .

(For transition period March ) -

 Potency of food in South Jakarta is “shipment food” from Bogor Region.

Flood in Jakarta as

“Shipment Flood”

Projection of

Rainfall over

Maximum Rainfall is 360 mm.

In South Region of

Jakarta

Jakarta (January 2015 )

Maximum Rainfall is

360 mm.

In South of Jakarta (Slowly spread towards North)

Projection of Rainfall over Jakarta

(January 2020 ) Maximum Rainfall is 370 mm.

In South of Jakarta

(Slowly spread towards North)

Projection of Rainfall over Jakarta (January 2025 )

Maximum Rainfall is 370 mm.

In South of Jakarta

(Slowly spread towards North)

Projection of Rainfall over Jakarta (January 2030 )

Maximum Rainfall is 380 mm.

In South of Jakarta

(Slowly spread towards North)

Projection of Rainfall over Jakarta (January 2035 )

Permanent Flood in Jakarta is Caused by Sea Level Rise Sea level rise caused by climate change is projected continues to increase.

Global Sea Level Rise 1880 – 2000 (IPCC, 2003)

in Jakarta Trend of Sea Level Rise Trend factor  cm/year

0.57 140

) 123.06 m

105 (c

108.69 el

94.31 ev L

79.94

70 ea S

65.56 n

51.19 ea

1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 Year

Source : Meliana, 2005

Dike as a sea water resistor

Sea level rise causes water to pass over dike.

If tidal wave occur, water will be overflow to land area.

200

5 North Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007

201 Tanjung Priok Cilincin g Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007

North

201

5 Pademang an Tanjung Priok Koj a Cilincin g Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007

North

202 Pademang an Tanjung Priok Koj a Cilincin g Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007

North

202

5 Penjaring an Pademang an Tanjung Priok Koj a Cilincin g Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007

North

203 Penjaring an Pademang an Tanjung Priok Koj a Cilincin g

Soekarno-Hatta Airport

Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007 North

203

5 Cilincin g Koj Tanjung a Priok Pademang an Penjaring an

Soekarno-Hatta Airport

North Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007

204 Penjaring an Pademang an Tanjung Priok Koj a Cilincin g

Soekarno-Hatta Airport

Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007 North

204

5 Penjaring an Pademang an Tanjung Priok Koj a Cilincin g

Soekarno-Hatta Airport

Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007 North

205 Penjaring an Pademang an Tanjung Priok Koj a Cilincin g

Soekarno-Hatta Airport

Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007 North

205

Monumen Nasional? (2080?)

Cilincin g Koj Tanjung Water will inundate a Priok Jakarta region as area Pademang

2 ± 160,4 km an ( 24,3% Area of Jakarta )

Penjaring in 2050 an

Soekarno-Hatta Airport

North Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007

It will occur accumulation of floods in Jakarta

by the year 2050.

Projection of Inundated Area in Jakarta ) 180 )

2 160.37 156.13

2 m m K (K ( n a

135 re ga A

91.35 an

79.28

76.83 ed en at

54.44

57.43 s

38.38 nu f I ua

63.64

46.81

45 o L

35.70

48.69

55.05 al

41.58 al

33.64 ot ot T T

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Tahun Year Mean Scenario Max. Scenario Min. Scenario

Skenario Min Skenario Rata-rata Skenario Max

Total Loss of Economic Sector in Jakarta Caused by Sea Level Rise

Min. Scenario Mean Scenario Max. Scenario Flood which is frequently occurred in Jakarta is caused by increasing of rainfall , sea level rise , and tidal wave .

SUMMARY

Adaptation to Climate Change in Jakarta Adaptation to be conducted 

Planting Mangrove 

Building Seawall (Water Resist Wall) 

Utilizing water abundant from South Area as main water resource in Jakarta 

Building Polder (Water Entrapment)

ILUSTRATION

Water Resource

Water Space

Water Flow Pipe

Polder

Mangrove Seawall

Extended Area to West Java

- Land Use Change and Climate Change in Citarum River

- Sea Level Rise in Subang and Indramayu

Land Use Change and Climate Change (Citarum River)

Flow Chart of The Research Satellite Image Landsat TM

8 Band Image Satellite Landsat TM

Ground Types Map Groundwater Calculation

NDVI Projection Land Use Map Map of Land use projection

NDVI Calculation Image Digitation

Image Classification PROJECTION MAP Direct Runoff, Baseflow, Temperature

& Rainfall Climate Data

Overlay of Land Use Map – Types of Ground

Climate Projection Land Use Map Curug

PURWAKARTA Jatiluhur Cikumpay Cibeurum

Cirata CIRANJANG Rajamandala Projection of Temperature over Citarum Region

Temperature

Temperature in January 2001 Temperature

Temperature in January 2010 Temperature

Temperature in January 2020 Temperature

Temperature in July 2001 Temperature

Temperature in July 2010 Temperature

Temperature in July 2020

Projection of Rainfall over Citarum Region Rainfall

Rainfall in January 2020 Rainfall

Rainfall in July 2020 Direct Runoff PURWAKARTA

Cibeurum Curug CIRANJANG Rajamandala Direct Runoff PURWAKARTA

Cibeurum Curug CIRANJANG Rajamandala Baseflow PURWAKARTA

Cibeurum Curug CIRANJANG Rajamandala Flood Vulnerable Region PURWAKARTA

Cibeurum Curug CIRANJANG Rajamandala Sea Level Rise in Subang and Indramayu

Indramayu Subang (Source: Susandi, 2008) Sea Level Rise in

Indramayu Region

2010 Indramayu Losarang

Kandanghaur

Sindang

(Source: Susandi, 2008)

2015 Indramayu Losarang

Kandanghaur

Sindang

(Source: Susandi, 2008)

2020 Indramayu Losarang

Kandanghaur

Sindang

(Source: Susandi, 2008)

2030 Indramayu Losarang

Kandanghaur

Sindang

(Source: Susandi, 2008)

2040 Indramayu Losarang

Kandanghaur

Sindang

(Source: Susandi, 2008)

2050 Indramayu Losarang

Kandanghaur

Sindang

(Source: Susandi, 2008)

2060 Indramayu Losarang

Kandanghaur

Sindang

(Source: Susandi, 2008)

2070 Indramayu Losarang

Kandanghaur

Sindang

(Source: Susandi, 2008)

2080 Indramayu Losarang

Kandanghaur

Sindang

(Source: Susandi, 2008)

2090 Indramayu

Losarang Kandanghaur

Sindang

(Source: Susandi, 2008)

2100 Indramayu

Losarang Kandanghaur Sindang

Inundated area = 1,63 km

2 (Source: Susandi, 2008) Sea Level Rise in Subang Region

2010

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