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Agro Ekonomi Vol. 28/No. 2, Desember 2017
309
THE DETERMINANTS OF PADDY FIELD CONVERSION
IN TIMOR ISLAND, EAST NUSA TENGGARA PROVINCE (NTT)
Faktor-Faktor Penentu Konversi Padi di Pulau Timor,
Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur (NTT)
1
Prischa Lulan1, Dwidjono Hadi Darwanto2, Slamet Hartono2
Student of Postgraduate Program of Faculty of Agriculture, Universitas Gadjah Mada
2
Professor of Faculty of Agriculture, Universitas Gadjah Mada
3
Lecturers of Faculty of Agriculture, Universitas Gadjah Mada
1,2,3
Department of Agriculture Socio Economic, Faculty of Agriculture,
Universitas Gadjah Mada
Jl. Flora, Bulaksumur, Kec. Depok, Kabupaten Sleman,
Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta, 55281
phika.lulan13@gmail.com
ABSTRACT
The objectives of this research are: (1) to investigate the trend of paddy ields on Timor Island
and (2) to know the determinants of the conversion of paddy ields on Timor Island. Timor
Island consists of several districts such as Kupang District, South Central Timor District
(TTS), North Central Timor District (TTU), Belu District and Kupang City. In fact, they
are the main rice-producing areas in the Timor Island, so they have an important role in the
supplying suficient for locals. However, the regions are slowly started to be converted to
non-paddy-ield use such as new settlements and other infrastructure development along with
the current economic development. The basic method used in this research was descriptive
analysis and the location of research was determined purposively because this location
was based on the consideration that there was a high growth of non-agricultural sectors in
Timor Island; making it vulnerable to the reduction of paddy ield area. The data used was
secondary data (2005-2014). The results showed that (1) the trend of rice ield in Timor Island
is not signiicant with time variable. (2) The analysis of determinants of paddy ield area in
Timor Island using multiple linear regression with Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method
indicated that the factors affecting the conversion of wetland in Timor Island signiicantly
are the variable of building area and the number of industries.
Keywords : ield conversion, multiple regression, trend
INTISARI
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk: (1) mengetahui trend luas lahan sawah di Pulau Timor dan
(2) mengetahui faktor-faktor penentu konversi lahan sawah di Pulau Timor. Pulau Timor
terdiri dari beberapa kabupaten seperti Kabupaten Kupang, Kabupaten Timor Tengah
Selatan (TTS), Kabupaten Timor Tengah Utara (TTU), Kabupaten Belu dan Kota Kupang
adalah beberapa kabupaten penghasil padi utama di kawasan Pulau Timor, sehingga
mempunyai peranan penting dalam pemenuhan kebutuhan pangan masyarakatnya.
Namun seiring dengan perkembangan ekonomi di beberapa kabupaten di Pulau Timor
perlahan mulai dikonversi menjadi penggunaan non-sawah seperti permukiman baru
dan pembangunan infrastruktur lainnya. Metode dasar yang digunakan dalam penelitian
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Agro Ekonomi Vol. 28/No. 2, Desember 2017
ini adalah metode deskriptif analisis dan lokasi penelitian ditentukan secara sengaja
atau purposive sampling disasarkan pada pertimbangn bahwa adanya pertumbuhan
yang tinggi dari sektor non-pertaniansehingga rentan terhadap pengurangan areal
sawah. Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder (2005-2014). Hasil penelitian
menunjukkan mengenai trend lahan sawah di Pulau Timor tidak dsigniikan dengan
variabel waktu. Untuk hasil analisis faktor – faktor penentu luas lahan sawah di Pulau
Timor menggunakan regresi linear berganda dengan metode Ordinary Least Square
(OLS). Berdasarkan hasil analisis regresi linear berganda tersebut, faktor-faktor yang
berpengaruh nyata terhadap konversi lahan sawah di Pulau Timor yaitu variabel luas
lahan bangunan dan jumlah industri.
Kata Kunci : konversi lahan, regresi berganda, tren
INTRODUCTION
food security and sovereignty. Maintaining
A plot of land can be used for variety
the balance, progress, and unity of the
of purposes that are often non-compatible.
national economy. Irawan et al (2002: 119)
Hence, it emerges competition in various
asserted that the conversion of agricultural
alternative uses and allocations in its
land in essence occurs as a result of
utilization (Anwar, 1993). In agriculture,
competition in land use between agriculture
land is the most important resource, both for
and non-agricultural sectors. The constant
farmers and for agricultural development.
availability of land in a region, faced with
It is based on the fact that in Indonesian
rapidly increasing demands, leads to an
agricultural activities are still based on
interaction between demand and supply
land. Indonesia as an agricultural country,
of land, then generating land-use patterns
which is set in Law No. 41 of 2009 on
that lead to proitable activities (Nasoetion
Sustainable Food-Crop Agricultural Land
& Winoto, 1996).
Protection, needs to ensure the sustainable
Agricultural land, especially rice
provision of agricultural land as a source of
ields, has economically high selling price
decent work and livelihood for humanity
because it is usually located in certain
by maintaining the balance, progress, and
developing location. However, for farmers
unity of the national economy.
and farm laborers, the conversion of paddy
However, with the economic and
ields is a problem because they cannot
industrial development as well as the
switch jobs. Farmers tend to be trapped
population growth in Indonesia have
by the limited employment opportunities
caused the conversion, fragmentation,
which could lead to further complicated
and degradation of agricultural land that
social problems.
threatens the territory’s carrying capacity
Rice is an important staple food of
nationally in maintaining self-reliance,
the Indonesian population whose role is
Agro Ekonomi Vol. 28/No. 2, Desember 2017
311
a major concern, given that the shrinking
rice production policy will remain as the
of paddy fields due to land conversion
core policy in agricultural development.
causes the area of rice harvest to fall by
Paddy ields in some areas of Timor
2.2% per year and the rate of growth of
Island such as Kupang District, South
paddy production in densely populated
Central Timor District (TTS), North
areas decreased by 1.1 % per year. This
Central Timor District, Belu District and
situation suggests that efforts to increase
Kupang City are slowly starting to be
rice production should be encouraged
converted to non-paddy-ield use such as
(Ken, 2010).
new settlements and other infrastructure
NTT Province is one of the
development (BPS NTT, 2015). According
archipelago provinces consisting of several
to Ransastra and Budhi (1997), conversion
islands, including Flores Island, Sumba
of agricultural land to non-agricultural use
Island, Palue Island, Alor Island, Lembata
can occur directly or indirectly. Conversion
Island, Rote Island, Sabu Island, Adonara
is directly due to the decision of the
Island, Solor Island, Komodo Island and
landowners to convert their agricultural
Timor Island. The Timor Island is an island
land to other uses such as industry, housing,
in the southern part of the archipelago,
advice and infrastructure.
divided between the independent state of
Land that was originally used for
East Timor and the West Timor Region, part
cultivating media, slowly began to change
of the Indonesian province of NTT.
into multi-use functions. Changes in
The largest contribution is dominated
agricultural land use to non-farming
by the agricultural sector with a contribution
are known as land conversion or land
to the PDRB of Timor Island in 2014 (NTT
conversion. Sumaryanto (1995) said the
dalam Angka, 2015). The agricultural
implications of uncontrolled conversion of
sector is dominant in Timor Island's
rice paddies could threaten the food supply
economy because it is the main livelihood
capacity, and even in the long term can
of some communities on Timor Island.
cause social harm.
Currently, the food consumption pattern
We t l a n d c o n v e rsi o n t o n o n -
in Timor Island that originally consumes
agricultural purposes is a choice taken by
non-rice food (local food such as maize and
farmersrationaay within a circumtances
tubers) is starting to shift to rice as a single
where the size of land holding is squeezing
staple food (Leki, 2010). It is in accordance
over time, and where farm activities could
with Mubyarto (1977), who stated that in
not give adequate returns (Ken, 2001).
the long run rice will remain as the staple
Some of the consequences of the rate
food of the Indonesian population, so that
of economic growth that is the increase
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Agro Ekonomi Vol. 28/No. 2, Desember 2017
in population concentration has a great
growth and negatively correlated with
consequence on the provision of facilities,
farmer exchange rate.
which in turn brings great consequences
The impact of the conversion
to the use of space or land serta housing
of paddy field to non-rice field is the
demand and economic center growth also
decreasing of agricultural productivity
accelerated as urban development began to
which can be seen from the decreasing of
reach the suburbs (Budi, 2015).
paddy production then the loss of paddy
The conversion of paddy ields in
and inally will affect the availability of
Timor Island is certainly closely related
rice. Knowing the impact of wet land
to local government policies that provide
conversion can be done anticipatory action
facilities to non-agricultural sectors to
or improvement of the impacts caused, one
encourage regional development. The
of them through controlling the conversion
development of the industrial sector and
of paddy ields. To perform such control, it
the service sector (education, tourism and
is necessary to know the factors that affect
other supporting infrastructure) are causing
the conversion of paddy ields. This study
land demand for these sectors to increase.
aims to determine the trends of paddy
I n a n e ff o r t t o i n c r e a s e r i c e
field area and the factors affecting the
production, one of the priority problems
conversion of paddy ields in Timor Island,
that occupied to be studied is the change
East Nusa Tenggara Province (NTT).
of the paddy area use to non-rice field.
The conversion of agricultural land to
METHODS
non-rice ield is in the form of land use
The basic method employed in
for housing, industrial estate and facilities
this research was descriptive analysis
and infrastructure to support economic
method, which is a method in examining
activities and transportation as an example
the status of a group of people, an object,
of a road that grew longer and longer.
a set of conditions, a system of thought,
Based on the research that has been
or a class of events in the present. The
done by Ilham et.al. (2004), economic
aim was to make a systematic, factual and
factors that affect the conversion of paddy
accurate description, image or painting of
ields in the micro scope are the price of
the facts, traits and relationships among
the land, economic activity of a region,
the phenomena investigated (Suharsimi,
the development of settlements and the
2005). The location of the research was
competitiveness of agricultural products.
determined purposively or using purposive
Besides that, the land conversion macro
sampling, which is a determination of
scope is positively correlated with GDRP
research areas that are deliberately selected
Agro Ekonomi Vol. 28/No. 2, Desember 2017
313
by considering certain things, according
analysis is an analysis used to observe
to the purpose of the research (Sugiyono,
data trends thoroughly over a fairly long
2012). The research sites were conducted
period of time. Trend can be used for a
in Timor Island. The determination of
method of analysis aimed at conducting a
research location was done intentionally
future forecast or forecast of the weather
(purposive).
(Subagyo, 1986). To do a good forecasting
The selection of this location was
it takes a lot of information (data) is quite a
based on the consideration that there is a
lot and observed in a relatively long period,
high growth of non-agricultural sectors in
so the results of the analysis can be known
Timor Island; making it vulnerable to paddy
until large fluctuations occur and what
field area reduction. The development
factors affect the change.
of supporting infrastructures that are
Theoretically, in time series analysis
continuing and growing bigger resulted in
the most decisive is the quality or accuracy
conversion of paddy ields as a source of
of the information or data obtained as well
rice production can not be avoided.
as the time or period of the data collected. If
The type of data used in this
the data collected is more numerous then the
study was secondary data which were
better the estimate or forecasting obtained.
quantitative data including time series
Conversely, if the data collected less then
data within the period from 2005 to 2014.
the result of estimation or forecasting will
The data obtained from the Regional
not good.
Land Agency of NTT Province, as well as
Trend or often called secular trend
related institutions such as: Agricultural
is the average change (usually every year)
Ofice of NTT Province, Central Bureau
in the long run based on time-series data
of Statistics of NTT Province. This study
(time series). If the indicated symptoms go
also explored information to clarify the
up then the trends possess show the average
existing data including other information
increase and vice versa.
related to the objectives of the research.
Trend estimation using linear trend
The determination of variables is based on
analysis with Ordinary Least Squares
the data availability.
Method (OLS) is formulated as follows
(Subagyo, 1986):
Analysis Method
To analyze the trend of paddy ield
area in Timor Island was calculated using
trend analysis. Trend analysis is a common
trend model for time series data. Trend
Ŷ = a + Bx
Where :
Ŷ
: The value of paddy ield area trend
a
: Constant numbers
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b
: Slope of line slant
TKP : Labor of agriculture sector (%)
X
: Time (year)
LLB : Building area (Ha)
JI
Meanwhile, the factors that inluence
: Number of industry (Unit)
PJLN : Length of road (Km)
paddy field conversion were analyzed
β0
: Constants
using multiple linear regression and
βI
: Regression Coeficient
estimated by using Ordinary Least Squares
εi
: Error
(OLS) method. Regression method is an
estimation method that studies how the
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
inluence of one variable independent (free)
Trend Analysis of Paddy Field Area in
to the dependent variable (not free). In the
Timor Island NTT
modern sense, regression is the study of
Trend analysis is an analysis that
how independent variables are inluenced
sees the long-term uptrend or downtrend
by one or more dependent variables with
movement obtained from the average
the aim of estimating and /or predicting the
changes over time and the value is smooth.
average value of dependent variables based
Periodic data trends can be in form of
on the value of the independent variables
trends that increase and decrease smoothly.
known (Gujarati, 2012).
An uptrend is called a positive trend and
The determinants of paddy field
a downtrend is called a negative trend.
conversion used in this study were Population
Trends show relatively long and stable
(X1), real GRDP of non-agricultural sector
time changes.
(X2), labour of agriculture sector (X3),
Trend analysis is used to know the
building area (X4), number of industry (X5)
development of paddy area from time to
and length of road (X6).
time based on time series data. The area of
paddy ields in Timor Island in the period
The estimated regression model is:
of 2005 to 2014 luctuated. Graphically, the
YK = β 0 + β 1 P D K K t + β 2 P D R B t + β
TKPt+β 4LLBt+ β 5JIt+β 6PJLN+ε
3
development of paddy ield area in Timor
Figure 1 shows that during the period
Where :
YK
Island can be described as follows:
: Area of paddy ields converted per
year (Ha)
PDKK : Population (People)
PDRB : Real GDRP of non Agricultural
Sector (Rp)
of 2005 - 2014 on Timor Island there was
widespread luctuation of wetland area
with decreasing tendency. In the periods
of 2005 was above the trend line and
then in 2006-2007 showed a declining
Agro Ekonomi Vol. 28/No. 2, Desember 2017
315
Paddy ield area (Hectare)
The trend of paddy ield in Timor Island
Year
Figure 1. The Development of Paddy Field Area in Timor Island in 2005-2014
Table 1. Result of Analysis of Linear Trend of Paddy ield Area in Timor Island 2005-2014
Parameters
Constanta
Time (X)
R2
F-count
Coeficient
47063,769***
- 60,615ns
t-count
29,442
-0,301
0,008
0,769
Source: Secondary Data Analysis, 2017
movement. The next period of 2008 was
From Tabel 1, it appears that the trend
a decline in wetlands accompanied by an
pattern of paddy ield area in Timor Island
increase in land for buildings for housing
followed a linear downtrend pattern with
and industry and other uses, and then
equation:
tended to move back above trend line in
Ŷ = 47063.769 – 60.615X
2009 due to new paddy ield printing and
luctuating up and down in 2010-2012.
Then in the period 2013-2014 back down
due to construction of new settlements
and other infrastructure facilities (NTT
dalam Angka, 2015).
Statistical analysis using linear trend
analysis to ind out the relationship between
paddy ield area in Timor Island until now
obtained the following results:
The equation of linear trend of
wetland area on Timor Island in 2004-2014
shows that time factor has no signiicant
effect on wetland area. Based on the
coeficient of this time factor has a negative
relationship to the area of wetland, indicated
by the value of the value coeficient (-).
The linear trend estimation of paddy
ield area in Timor Island has decreased due
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to the conversion of paddy ields that keep
to engage in socio-economic activities
happening since some of the districts in
(Wardani, 2009). One of the decisive
the island are located around Kupang City,
factors in planning the development of
the capital of NTT Province, which began
a region, namely as a key element that
developing the land use for settlements
determines everything then. Increased
and other physical development for the
socio-economic activity in a region shows
economic development. That condition
the better road infrastructure in the region.
is realistic considering the land owned by
This is because the relationship between
a region is ixed while the need for non-
regions will be easier in the mobilization
agricultural land sector is increasing so that
of production factors and distribution of
the conversion is inevitable. Therefore, it is
production output.
necessary to anticipate through regulation
or land intensiication efforts.
An area with better access will
inluence the decision on land use. Easy
The graph of the linear trend pattern
access to various facilities and facilities
of wetland area on Timor Island is shown
and infrastructure that support good socio-
in Figure 2. :
economic activities will be interesting to
use as a place of business or residence as
Determinants of Paddy Field Areas in
it will provide greater beneits. But unlike
Timor Island NTT
the areas that have poor road infrastructure,
Decisions on land use are strongly
inluenced by the accessibility of the land,
such as areas that are less dificult to reach,
often used for agricultural activities.
the more easily accessible and affordable
Ease of access to road infrastructure will
areas are relatively chosen as a place
affect land rental in the area will then affect
Figure 2. Estimated Land Trend in Timor Island Year 2005 - 2014
Agro Ekonomi Vol. 28/No. 2, Desember 2017
317
the conversion of land to non-agricultural
existing industry. The development of the
use. This is because the rate of land rent for
industry will increase the need for land so
non-agricultural use (in the presence of road
that there is an increase of land use change
networks) will be faster than for agricultural
to non agriculture.
use. Therefore, the conversion of paddy
Real GDP of non agricultural sector
ield land will also increase along with the
is the amount of added value that produced
improvement of road infrastructure. In this
or is the value of inal goods and services
case, the variable is measured by the length
produced by the non-agricultural sector
of road owned by a region.
within a region within a certain period. If
The development of facilities for
the GRDP of the non-agricultural sector,
socio-economic activities and settlement
the greater means the ability of non-
is the effect of population growth in a
agricultural sector in generating added
region. Increasing the number of people
value or produce a greater output, which
in a region will lead to pressure from
means also the competitiveness of the
increasing population density. It will trigger
agricultural sector is also greater.
an urge to expand the settlement area to
The economic structure of a wider
the surrounding area so that there will be a
region will affect the economic structure of
change in land use. The suitable topography
the region it covers. The economic structure
and natural conditions for residential areas
can be seen from the contribution of the
are rice fields so that land conversion
economic sector to the creation of GRDP
cannot be avoided.
in the region. The trend of transformation
A region in its urban growth process is
given economic sector from agriculture to
usually accompanied by increasing demand
non-agriculture causes the contribution of
for land for settlements. The demand
non-agricultural sector is greater to GRDP.
was met by the way the construction of
The large contribution of the agricultural
residential complexes in the formerly
sector in Timor Island will also affect
agricultural suburbs. Increased population
the economic structure of the districts /
will also impact on the increase of the
municipalities in the territorial of Timor
workforce.
Island. The greater the GDP will increase
In countries undergoing
the conversion of paddy ields as a result of
transformation from the primary to
the inluence of non-agricultural economic
secondary sectors will lead to industry,
structure.
which is one of the efforts to meet the needs
The analysis of land conversion
of employment with the opening of new
determinants on paddy field in Timor
factories or industries or by developing an
Island was conducted to see the factors
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Table 2. The Results of Multiple Linear Regression Analysis of Paddy Field Conversion
in Timor Island in 2017
Variable
Constanta
Population (X1)
GDP Rill Non-Farm Sector (X2)
Agricultural Sector Employment (X3)
Coeficient
-5386,868
0.000
0.001
- 17.384
t-count
- 1.139
- 0.138
1.104
- 0.372
0.304
116.692
-0.749
6.651
4.771
- 0.899
Building area (X4)
Number of Industries (X5)
Road Length (X6)
Adjusted R2
F count
Durbin Watson Test
Sig,
0.337 ns
0.899ns
0.350 ns
0.735ns
0,007***
0.018**
0.435 ns
0.915
17.193**
3.124
Source: Secondary Data Analysis, 2017
Description:
*** Signiicant effect on the level of 99 %
** Signiicant effect on the level of 95 %
* Signiicant effect on the level of 90 %
that determine the land conversion with
that independent variable of population,
the relationship between the response
real GRDP of agriculture sector, labor of
variables (dependent variable) and the
agriculture sector, building area, industry
explanatory variable (independent variable)
number and length of road can reach
and also to ind the relationship between the
91.5% from the total factors affecting
explanatory variables.
the conversion of paddy ields on Timor
The response variables are variables
Island. The remaining 8.5% is determined
of paddy ield area conversion whereas
by other variables not included in the
the explanatory variables are Population
model. The result of analysis with F
(X 1), GDP Rill Non-Farm Sector (X2),
test shows that the value of Fcount is
Agricultural Sector Employment (X 3),
17.193 and Ftabel is 4.95 which means
Building area (X4) and Length of Road
that Fcount> Ftable is signiicant at α =
(X5). Multiple linear regression analysis
0.05%. So that, the independent variables
in this study was conducted to determine
simultaneously signiicant effect on the
which factor among those 5 (Five) factors
dependent variable.
that mostly affected the conversion of
paddy ields in Timor Island NTT.
To know the inluence of independent
variable to dependent variable done by t test.
The overall test with ANOVA
T test is a partial test that aims to examine
table 2 shows the value of determination
the effect of certain independent variables
coeficient (adjusted R2) is 0.915, meaning
on the dependent variable. The t test is done
Agro Ekonomi Vol. 28/No. 2, Desember 2017
319
by comparing the t-sig (signiicance) at
rice ields by 0.172 hectare. This indicates
the error rate of each independent variable
that any development, especially physical
affecting the dependent variable. If the
development must require land. The
value of t-sig is smaller than α used, it can
more land area of a building in an area on
be concluded that independent variables
Timor Island to non-agricultural use so
individually have a signiicant inluence
the demand for building land is higher and
on the dependent variable.
what happens is the conversion of paddy
The t test is done by comparing the
ields to meet the demand.
t-sig (significance) at the error rate of
Variable of industrial number also
each independent variable that affects the
has a significant and positive effect to
dependent variable. If the value of t-sig
wetland area with 95% conidence level,
is smaller than the α used, then it can be
where if there is addition of industrial
concluded that the independent variable
amount equal to 1% it will decrease rice
individually has a signiicant effect on the
field area by 0.018 hectare. The most
dependent variable
developed industrial sector in Kupang
The t-test result to see the effect
city region. During the period of industry
of each independent variable on the
research is growing rapidly, especially
conversion of rice ield on Timor Island
small and medium industries. Wetland is
is signiicantly inluenced by the building
needed to meet the development of both
area and the number of industries.
small and medium-sized industries where
While real non-agricultural GRDP, the
more and more industries are increasingly
population, agricultural labor and long
wasted rice ields.
roads are not signiicant. Building area
The variable of industrial quantity
has signiicant effect to α = 0,01% while
also negatively inluence to wetland area
Number of industries have significant
with 95% conidence level, where if there
effect to α = 0,05%. The value of the
is addition of industrial amount equal to
alleged parameter used in the wet land
1% it will decrease wetland area equal to
conversion model is its elasticity value.
0.298%. The most developed industrial
The coeficient or elasticity values of the
sector in Kupang city region. During the
building area and the number of industries
period of industry research is growing
are 0.007 and 0.018, respectively
rapidly, especially small and medium
Building Area (X4) has a signiicant
industries. Wetland is needed to meet the
positive effect with the elasticity of 0.304.
development of both small and medium-
This shows that if the building area increased
sized industries where more and more
by 1% it will increase the conversion of
industries are increasingly wasted rice
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ields. Overall, multiple linear regression
model above is appropriate and it.
Suggestion
According to the results of the
In line with the results of Putri (2015)
research, it is necessary to make efforts to
study entitled Analysis of Causes of Land
conserve paddy ields through prevention of
Function Distribution to Agricultural Land
paddy ield conversion and optimization of
Regency / City In Central Java Province
potential land use so that the sustainability
2003-2013, wide of residential land and
of agriculture in Timor Island can be
number of industry has a significant
maintained. The building area and the
and positive effect to the conversion of
number of industry have a signiicant effect
agricultural land in the 6 povinces of
on the conversion of paddy ields in Timor
Central Java.
Island. Therefore, local governments should
arrange and design local regulations depends
CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTION
on UUD Lestari about the conversion of
Conclusion
agricultural land such as determining which
Based on the analysis results on the
land may or not be converted, or which
trend of the paddy fields area in Timor
land needs to be maintained, especially for
Island NTT, it was obtained the result that
high-yielding paddy ields. In addition, the
the trend of paddy ield was in the form
development of appropriate agricultural
of linear lat trend. The equation of linear
technology application and the improvement
trend of wetland area on Timor Island in
of irrigation network infrastructure are
2005-2014 shows that time factor has no
needed to increase the productivity of
signiicant effect on wetland area. Based
paddy ields in order to reduce the impact
on the coeficient of this time factor has
of paddy ield conversion resulting from
a negative relationship to the area of
land conversion.
wetland, indicated by the value of the value
coeficient (-).
REFERENCES
The analysis of determinants of
Anwar, A. 1993. Dampak Alih Fungsi Lahan
paddy field area in Timor Island used
sawah Menjadi Lahan Non Pertanian
multiple linear regression with Ordinary
di Sekitar Wilayah Perkotaan. Jurnal
Least Square (OLS) method. Based on
Perencanaan Wilayah dan Kota,
the results of multiple linear regression
Nomor: 10, triwulan IV/ 2003.
analysis, the factors that significantly
affected the conversion of paddy ields in
Timor Island by the building area and the
number of industry.
Budi, Rohani. 2015. Alih Fungsi Lahan
Di Perkotaan (Studi Kasus Di Kota
Bandung dan Yogyakarta). Jurnal
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Gu j a ra t i , D. 2012. Da sa r - Da sa r
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Ekonometrika. Penerbit Erlangga.
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Jakarta.
Pikul. Kupang.
Ilham, N. Y. dan Supeno, F. 2004.
Lestari, T. 2009. Dampak Konversi
Perkembangan dan Faktor-Faktor
Lahan Pertanian Bagi Taraf Hidup
Yang mempengaruhi Konversi Lahan
Petani. Makalah Kolokium. Institut
Sawah Serta Dampak ekonominya.
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Nasoetion, L. dan Winoto. J. 1996.
Badan Penelitian dan Pengembangan
Masalah Alih Fungsi Lahan
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Pertanian dan Dampaknya terhadap
Keberlangsungan Swasembada
Irawan, B. dan S. Friyatno. 2002. Dampak
Pangan. Prosiding Lokakarya
Konversi Lahan Sawah di Jawa
Persaingan Dalam Pemanfaatan
terhadap Produksi Beras dan
Sumberdaya Lahan dan Air: 64 - 82.
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Sosial – Ekonomi Pertanian dan
Agribisnis SOCA: 2(2): 79-95.
Putri, Zara. 2015. Analisis Penyebab
Alih Fungsi Lahan Pertanian ke
Lahan Pertanian Kabupaten/ Kota
Jamal, Erizal. 2001. Faktor-Faktor Yang
Mempengaruhi Pembentukan Harga
Lahan Sawah Pada Proses Alih Fungsi
Lahan Sawah Ke Penggunaan Non
Pertanian (Studi Kasusu di Beberapa
Desa, Kabupaten Karawang, Jawa
Barat). Jurnal Agro Ekonomi 19(1):
45-63.
Ken, S. 2010. Dampak Teknologi
Di Provinsi Jawa Tengah 2003-2013.
Jurnal Eko-Regional, 10(1).
Rusastra dan Budhi. 1997. Konversi Lahan
Pertanian dan Strategi Antisipatif
dalam Penanggulangannya. Jurnal
Litbang Pertanian 16(4): 107-113.
Subagyo, 1986. Forecasting, Konsep dan
Aplikasi. BPFE. Yogyakarta.
Agriculture Growth Promoting
Sumaryanto, N. Syafa’at, M. (1995).
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Lahan Sawah ke Penggunaan Non
Swastika, D. 2007. Analisis Kebijakan
Pertanian. Jurnal Sosial Ekonomi.
Peningkatan Produksi Padi Melalui
Pusat Penelitian Sosial Ekonomi
Efisiensi Pemanfaatan Lahan
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pertanian di Indonesia. Jurnal
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Pusat Analisis Sosial Ekonomi dan
Departemen Pertanian.
Kebijakan Pertanian.
309
THE DETERMINANTS OF PADDY FIELD CONVERSION
IN TIMOR ISLAND, EAST NUSA TENGGARA PROVINCE (NTT)
Faktor-Faktor Penentu Konversi Padi di Pulau Timor,
Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur (NTT)
1
Prischa Lulan1, Dwidjono Hadi Darwanto2, Slamet Hartono2
Student of Postgraduate Program of Faculty of Agriculture, Universitas Gadjah Mada
2
Professor of Faculty of Agriculture, Universitas Gadjah Mada
3
Lecturers of Faculty of Agriculture, Universitas Gadjah Mada
1,2,3
Department of Agriculture Socio Economic, Faculty of Agriculture,
Universitas Gadjah Mada
Jl. Flora, Bulaksumur, Kec. Depok, Kabupaten Sleman,
Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta, 55281
phika.lulan13@gmail.com
ABSTRACT
The objectives of this research are: (1) to investigate the trend of paddy ields on Timor Island
and (2) to know the determinants of the conversion of paddy ields on Timor Island. Timor
Island consists of several districts such as Kupang District, South Central Timor District
(TTS), North Central Timor District (TTU), Belu District and Kupang City. In fact, they
are the main rice-producing areas in the Timor Island, so they have an important role in the
supplying suficient for locals. However, the regions are slowly started to be converted to
non-paddy-ield use such as new settlements and other infrastructure development along with
the current economic development. The basic method used in this research was descriptive
analysis and the location of research was determined purposively because this location
was based on the consideration that there was a high growth of non-agricultural sectors in
Timor Island; making it vulnerable to the reduction of paddy ield area. The data used was
secondary data (2005-2014). The results showed that (1) the trend of rice ield in Timor Island
is not signiicant with time variable. (2) The analysis of determinants of paddy ield area in
Timor Island using multiple linear regression with Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method
indicated that the factors affecting the conversion of wetland in Timor Island signiicantly
are the variable of building area and the number of industries.
Keywords : ield conversion, multiple regression, trend
INTISARI
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk: (1) mengetahui trend luas lahan sawah di Pulau Timor dan
(2) mengetahui faktor-faktor penentu konversi lahan sawah di Pulau Timor. Pulau Timor
terdiri dari beberapa kabupaten seperti Kabupaten Kupang, Kabupaten Timor Tengah
Selatan (TTS), Kabupaten Timor Tengah Utara (TTU), Kabupaten Belu dan Kota Kupang
adalah beberapa kabupaten penghasil padi utama di kawasan Pulau Timor, sehingga
mempunyai peranan penting dalam pemenuhan kebutuhan pangan masyarakatnya.
Namun seiring dengan perkembangan ekonomi di beberapa kabupaten di Pulau Timor
perlahan mulai dikonversi menjadi penggunaan non-sawah seperti permukiman baru
dan pembangunan infrastruktur lainnya. Metode dasar yang digunakan dalam penelitian
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Agro Ekonomi Vol. 28/No. 2, Desember 2017
ini adalah metode deskriptif analisis dan lokasi penelitian ditentukan secara sengaja
atau purposive sampling disasarkan pada pertimbangn bahwa adanya pertumbuhan
yang tinggi dari sektor non-pertaniansehingga rentan terhadap pengurangan areal
sawah. Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder (2005-2014). Hasil penelitian
menunjukkan mengenai trend lahan sawah di Pulau Timor tidak dsigniikan dengan
variabel waktu. Untuk hasil analisis faktor – faktor penentu luas lahan sawah di Pulau
Timor menggunakan regresi linear berganda dengan metode Ordinary Least Square
(OLS). Berdasarkan hasil analisis regresi linear berganda tersebut, faktor-faktor yang
berpengaruh nyata terhadap konversi lahan sawah di Pulau Timor yaitu variabel luas
lahan bangunan dan jumlah industri.
Kata Kunci : konversi lahan, regresi berganda, tren
INTRODUCTION
food security and sovereignty. Maintaining
A plot of land can be used for variety
the balance, progress, and unity of the
of purposes that are often non-compatible.
national economy. Irawan et al (2002: 119)
Hence, it emerges competition in various
asserted that the conversion of agricultural
alternative uses and allocations in its
land in essence occurs as a result of
utilization (Anwar, 1993). In agriculture,
competition in land use between agriculture
land is the most important resource, both for
and non-agricultural sectors. The constant
farmers and for agricultural development.
availability of land in a region, faced with
It is based on the fact that in Indonesian
rapidly increasing demands, leads to an
agricultural activities are still based on
interaction between demand and supply
land. Indonesia as an agricultural country,
of land, then generating land-use patterns
which is set in Law No. 41 of 2009 on
that lead to proitable activities (Nasoetion
Sustainable Food-Crop Agricultural Land
& Winoto, 1996).
Protection, needs to ensure the sustainable
Agricultural land, especially rice
provision of agricultural land as a source of
ields, has economically high selling price
decent work and livelihood for humanity
because it is usually located in certain
by maintaining the balance, progress, and
developing location. However, for farmers
unity of the national economy.
and farm laborers, the conversion of paddy
However, with the economic and
ields is a problem because they cannot
industrial development as well as the
switch jobs. Farmers tend to be trapped
population growth in Indonesia have
by the limited employment opportunities
caused the conversion, fragmentation,
which could lead to further complicated
and degradation of agricultural land that
social problems.
threatens the territory’s carrying capacity
Rice is an important staple food of
nationally in maintaining self-reliance,
the Indonesian population whose role is
Agro Ekonomi Vol. 28/No. 2, Desember 2017
311
a major concern, given that the shrinking
rice production policy will remain as the
of paddy fields due to land conversion
core policy in agricultural development.
causes the area of rice harvest to fall by
Paddy ields in some areas of Timor
2.2% per year and the rate of growth of
Island such as Kupang District, South
paddy production in densely populated
Central Timor District (TTS), North
areas decreased by 1.1 % per year. This
Central Timor District, Belu District and
situation suggests that efforts to increase
Kupang City are slowly starting to be
rice production should be encouraged
converted to non-paddy-ield use such as
(Ken, 2010).
new settlements and other infrastructure
NTT Province is one of the
development (BPS NTT, 2015). According
archipelago provinces consisting of several
to Ransastra and Budhi (1997), conversion
islands, including Flores Island, Sumba
of agricultural land to non-agricultural use
Island, Palue Island, Alor Island, Lembata
can occur directly or indirectly. Conversion
Island, Rote Island, Sabu Island, Adonara
is directly due to the decision of the
Island, Solor Island, Komodo Island and
landowners to convert their agricultural
Timor Island. The Timor Island is an island
land to other uses such as industry, housing,
in the southern part of the archipelago,
advice and infrastructure.
divided between the independent state of
Land that was originally used for
East Timor and the West Timor Region, part
cultivating media, slowly began to change
of the Indonesian province of NTT.
into multi-use functions. Changes in
The largest contribution is dominated
agricultural land use to non-farming
by the agricultural sector with a contribution
are known as land conversion or land
to the PDRB of Timor Island in 2014 (NTT
conversion. Sumaryanto (1995) said the
dalam Angka, 2015). The agricultural
implications of uncontrolled conversion of
sector is dominant in Timor Island's
rice paddies could threaten the food supply
economy because it is the main livelihood
capacity, and even in the long term can
of some communities on Timor Island.
cause social harm.
Currently, the food consumption pattern
We t l a n d c o n v e rsi o n t o n o n -
in Timor Island that originally consumes
agricultural purposes is a choice taken by
non-rice food (local food such as maize and
farmersrationaay within a circumtances
tubers) is starting to shift to rice as a single
where the size of land holding is squeezing
staple food (Leki, 2010). It is in accordance
over time, and where farm activities could
with Mubyarto (1977), who stated that in
not give adequate returns (Ken, 2001).
the long run rice will remain as the staple
Some of the consequences of the rate
food of the Indonesian population, so that
of economic growth that is the increase
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Agro Ekonomi Vol. 28/No. 2, Desember 2017
in population concentration has a great
growth and negatively correlated with
consequence on the provision of facilities,
farmer exchange rate.
which in turn brings great consequences
The impact of the conversion
to the use of space or land serta housing
of paddy field to non-rice field is the
demand and economic center growth also
decreasing of agricultural productivity
accelerated as urban development began to
which can be seen from the decreasing of
reach the suburbs (Budi, 2015).
paddy production then the loss of paddy
The conversion of paddy ields in
and inally will affect the availability of
Timor Island is certainly closely related
rice. Knowing the impact of wet land
to local government policies that provide
conversion can be done anticipatory action
facilities to non-agricultural sectors to
or improvement of the impacts caused, one
encourage regional development. The
of them through controlling the conversion
development of the industrial sector and
of paddy ields. To perform such control, it
the service sector (education, tourism and
is necessary to know the factors that affect
other supporting infrastructure) are causing
the conversion of paddy ields. This study
land demand for these sectors to increase.
aims to determine the trends of paddy
I n a n e ff o r t t o i n c r e a s e r i c e
field area and the factors affecting the
production, one of the priority problems
conversion of paddy ields in Timor Island,
that occupied to be studied is the change
East Nusa Tenggara Province (NTT).
of the paddy area use to non-rice field.
The conversion of agricultural land to
METHODS
non-rice ield is in the form of land use
The basic method employed in
for housing, industrial estate and facilities
this research was descriptive analysis
and infrastructure to support economic
method, which is a method in examining
activities and transportation as an example
the status of a group of people, an object,
of a road that grew longer and longer.
a set of conditions, a system of thought,
Based on the research that has been
or a class of events in the present. The
done by Ilham et.al. (2004), economic
aim was to make a systematic, factual and
factors that affect the conversion of paddy
accurate description, image or painting of
ields in the micro scope are the price of
the facts, traits and relationships among
the land, economic activity of a region,
the phenomena investigated (Suharsimi,
the development of settlements and the
2005). The location of the research was
competitiveness of agricultural products.
determined purposively or using purposive
Besides that, the land conversion macro
sampling, which is a determination of
scope is positively correlated with GDRP
research areas that are deliberately selected
Agro Ekonomi Vol. 28/No. 2, Desember 2017
313
by considering certain things, according
analysis is an analysis used to observe
to the purpose of the research (Sugiyono,
data trends thoroughly over a fairly long
2012). The research sites were conducted
period of time. Trend can be used for a
in Timor Island. The determination of
method of analysis aimed at conducting a
research location was done intentionally
future forecast or forecast of the weather
(purposive).
(Subagyo, 1986). To do a good forecasting
The selection of this location was
it takes a lot of information (data) is quite a
based on the consideration that there is a
lot and observed in a relatively long period,
high growth of non-agricultural sectors in
so the results of the analysis can be known
Timor Island; making it vulnerable to paddy
until large fluctuations occur and what
field area reduction. The development
factors affect the change.
of supporting infrastructures that are
Theoretically, in time series analysis
continuing and growing bigger resulted in
the most decisive is the quality or accuracy
conversion of paddy ields as a source of
of the information or data obtained as well
rice production can not be avoided.
as the time or period of the data collected. If
The type of data used in this
the data collected is more numerous then the
study was secondary data which were
better the estimate or forecasting obtained.
quantitative data including time series
Conversely, if the data collected less then
data within the period from 2005 to 2014.
the result of estimation or forecasting will
The data obtained from the Regional
not good.
Land Agency of NTT Province, as well as
Trend or often called secular trend
related institutions such as: Agricultural
is the average change (usually every year)
Ofice of NTT Province, Central Bureau
in the long run based on time-series data
of Statistics of NTT Province. This study
(time series). If the indicated symptoms go
also explored information to clarify the
up then the trends possess show the average
existing data including other information
increase and vice versa.
related to the objectives of the research.
Trend estimation using linear trend
The determination of variables is based on
analysis with Ordinary Least Squares
the data availability.
Method (OLS) is formulated as follows
(Subagyo, 1986):
Analysis Method
To analyze the trend of paddy ield
area in Timor Island was calculated using
trend analysis. Trend analysis is a common
trend model for time series data. Trend
Ŷ = a + Bx
Where :
Ŷ
: The value of paddy ield area trend
a
: Constant numbers
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Agro Ekonomi Vol. 28/No. 2, Desember 2017
b
: Slope of line slant
TKP : Labor of agriculture sector (%)
X
: Time (year)
LLB : Building area (Ha)
JI
Meanwhile, the factors that inluence
: Number of industry (Unit)
PJLN : Length of road (Km)
paddy field conversion were analyzed
β0
: Constants
using multiple linear regression and
βI
: Regression Coeficient
estimated by using Ordinary Least Squares
εi
: Error
(OLS) method. Regression method is an
estimation method that studies how the
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
inluence of one variable independent (free)
Trend Analysis of Paddy Field Area in
to the dependent variable (not free). In the
Timor Island NTT
modern sense, regression is the study of
Trend analysis is an analysis that
how independent variables are inluenced
sees the long-term uptrend or downtrend
by one or more dependent variables with
movement obtained from the average
the aim of estimating and /or predicting the
changes over time and the value is smooth.
average value of dependent variables based
Periodic data trends can be in form of
on the value of the independent variables
trends that increase and decrease smoothly.
known (Gujarati, 2012).
An uptrend is called a positive trend and
The determinants of paddy field
a downtrend is called a negative trend.
conversion used in this study were Population
Trends show relatively long and stable
(X1), real GRDP of non-agricultural sector
time changes.
(X2), labour of agriculture sector (X3),
Trend analysis is used to know the
building area (X4), number of industry (X5)
development of paddy area from time to
and length of road (X6).
time based on time series data. The area of
paddy ields in Timor Island in the period
The estimated regression model is:
of 2005 to 2014 luctuated. Graphically, the
YK = β 0 + β 1 P D K K t + β 2 P D R B t + β
TKPt+β 4LLBt+ β 5JIt+β 6PJLN+ε
3
development of paddy ield area in Timor
Figure 1 shows that during the period
Where :
YK
Island can be described as follows:
: Area of paddy ields converted per
year (Ha)
PDKK : Population (People)
PDRB : Real GDRP of non Agricultural
Sector (Rp)
of 2005 - 2014 on Timor Island there was
widespread luctuation of wetland area
with decreasing tendency. In the periods
of 2005 was above the trend line and
then in 2006-2007 showed a declining
Agro Ekonomi Vol. 28/No. 2, Desember 2017
315
Paddy ield area (Hectare)
The trend of paddy ield in Timor Island
Year
Figure 1. The Development of Paddy Field Area in Timor Island in 2005-2014
Table 1. Result of Analysis of Linear Trend of Paddy ield Area in Timor Island 2005-2014
Parameters
Constanta
Time (X)
R2
F-count
Coeficient
47063,769***
- 60,615ns
t-count
29,442
-0,301
0,008
0,769
Source: Secondary Data Analysis, 2017
movement. The next period of 2008 was
From Tabel 1, it appears that the trend
a decline in wetlands accompanied by an
pattern of paddy ield area in Timor Island
increase in land for buildings for housing
followed a linear downtrend pattern with
and industry and other uses, and then
equation:
tended to move back above trend line in
Ŷ = 47063.769 – 60.615X
2009 due to new paddy ield printing and
luctuating up and down in 2010-2012.
Then in the period 2013-2014 back down
due to construction of new settlements
and other infrastructure facilities (NTT
dalam Angka, 2015).
Statistical analysis using linear trend
analysis to ind out the relationship between
paddy ield area in Timor Island until now
obtained the following results:
The equation of linear trend of
wetland area on Timor Island in 2004-2014
shows that time factor has no signiicant
effect on wetland area. Based on the
coeficient of this time factor has a negative
relationship to the area of wetland, indicated
by the value of the value coeficient (-).
The linear trend estimation of paddy
ield area in Timor Island has decreased due
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Agro Ekonomi Vol. 28/No. 2, Desember 2017
to the conversion of paddy ields that keep
to engage in socio-economic activities
happening since some of the districts in
(Wardani, 2009). One of the decisive
the island are located around Kupang City,
factors in planning the development of
the capital of NTT Province, which began
a region, namely as a key element that
developing the land use for settlements
determines everything then. Increased
and other physical development for the
socio-economic activity in a region shows
economic development. That condition
the better road infrastructure in the region.
is realistic considering the land owned by
This is because the relationship between
a region is ixed while the need for non-
regions will be easier in the mobilization
agricultural land sector is increasing so that
of production factors and distribution of
the conversion is inevitable. Therefore, it is
production output.
necessary to anticipate through regulation
or land intensiication efforts.
An area with better access will
inluence the decision on land use. Easy
The graph of the linear trend pattern
access to various facilities and facilities
of wetland area on Timor Island is shown
and infrastructure that support good socio-
in Figure 2. :
economic activities will be interesting to
use as a place of business or residence as
Determinants of Paddy Field Areas in
it will provide greater beneits. But unlike
Timor Island NTT
the areas that have poor road infrastructure,
Decisions on land use are strongly
inluenced by the accessibility of the land,
such as areas that are less dificult to reach,
often used for agricultural activities.
the more easily accessible and affordable
Ease of access to road infrastructure will
areas are relatively chosen as a place
affect land rental in the area will then affect
Figure 2. Estimated Land Trend in Timor Island Year 2005 - 2014
Agro Ekonomi Vol. 28/No. 2, Desember 2017
317
the conversion of land to non-agricultural
existing industry. The development of the
use. This is because the rate of land rent for
industry will increase the need for land so
non-agricultural use (in the presence of road
that there is an increase of land use change
networks) will be faster than for agricultural
to non agriculture.
use. Therefore, the conversion of paddy
Real GDP of non agricultural sector
ield land will also increase along with the
is the amount of added value that produced
improvement of road infrastructure. In this
or is the value of inal goods and services
case, the variable is measured by the length
produced by the non-agricultural sector
of road owned by a region.
within a region within a certain period. If
The development of facilities for
the GRDP of the non-agricultural sector,
socio-economic activities and settlement
the greater means the ability of non-
is the effect of population growth in a
agricultural sector in generating added
region. Increasing the number of people
value or produce a greater output, which
in a region will lead to pressure from
means also the competitiveness of the
increasing population density. It will trigger
agricultural sector is also greater.
an urge to expand the settlement area to
The economic structure of a wider
the surrounding area so that there will be a
region will affect the economic structure of
change in land use. The suitable topography
the region it covers. The economic structure
and natural conditions for residential areas
can be seen from the contribution of the
are rice fields so that land conversion
economic sector to the creation of GRDP
cannot be avoided.
in the region. The trend of transformation
A region in its urban growth process is
given economic sector from agriculture to
usually accompanied by increasing demand
non-agriculture causes the contribution of
for land for settlements. The demand
non-agricultural sector is greater to GRDP.
was met by the way the construction of
The large contribution of the agricultural
residential complexes in the formerly
sector in Timor Island will also affect
agricultural suburbs. Increased population
the economic structure of the districts /
will also impact on the increase of the
municipalities in the territorial of Timor
workforce.
Island. The greater the GDP will increase
In countries undergoing
the conversion of paddy ields as a result of
transformation from the primary to
the inluence of non-agricultural economic
secondary sectors will lead to industry,
structure.
which is one of the efforts to meet the needs
The analysis of land conversion
of employment with the opening of new
determinants on paddy field in Timor
factories or industries or by developing an
Island was conducted to see the factors
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Agro Ekonomi Vol. 28/No. 2, Desember 2017
Table 2. The Results of Multiple Linear Regression Analysis of Paddy Field Conversion
in Timor Island in 2017
Variable
Constanta
Population (X1)
GDP Rill Non-Farm Sector (X2)
Agricultural Sector Employment (X3)
Coeficient
-5386,868
0.000
0.001
- 17.384
t-count
- 1.139
- 0.138
1.104
- 0.372
0.304
116.692
-0.749
6.651
4.771
- 0.899
Building area (X4)
Number of Industries (X5)
Road Length (X6)
Adjusted R2
F count
Durbin Watson Test
Sig,
0.337 ns
0.899ns
0.350 ns
0.735ns
0,007***
0.018**
0.435 ns
0.915
17.193**
3.124
Source: Secondary Data Analysis, 2017
Description:
*** Signiicant effect on the level of 99 %
** Signiicant effect on the level of 95 %
* Signiicant effect on the level of 90 %
that determine the land conversion with
that independent variable of population,
the relationship between the response
real GRDP of agriculture sector, labor of
variables (dependent variable) and the
agriculture sector, building area, industry
explanatory variable (independent variable)
number and length of road can reach
and also to ind the relationship between the
91.5% from the total factors affecting
explanatory variables.
the conversion of paddy ields on Timor
The response variables are variables
Island. The remaining 8.5% is determined
of paddy ield area conversion whereas
by other variables not included in the
the explanatory variables are Population
model. The result of analysis with F
(X 1), GDP Rill Non-Farm Sector (X2),
test shows that the value of Fcount is
Agricultural Sector Employment (X 3),
17.193 and Ftabel is 4.95 which means
Building area (X4) and Length of Road
that Fcount> Ftable is signiicant at α =
(X5). Multiple linear regression analysis
0.05%. So that, the independent variables
in this study was conducted to determine
simultaneously signiicant effect on the
which factor among those 5 (Five) factors
dependent variable.
that mostly affected the conversion of
paddy ields in Timor Island NTT.
To know the inluence of independent
variable to dependent variable done by t test.
The overall test with ANOVA
T test is a partial test that aims to examine
table 2 shows the value of determination
the effect of certain independent variables
coeficient (adjusted R2) is 0.915, meaning
on the dependent variable. The t test is done
Agro Ekonomi Vol. 28/No. 2, Desember 2017
319
by comparing the t-sig (signiicance) at
rice ields by 0.172 hectare. This indicates
the error rate of each independent variable
that any development, especially physical
affecting the dependent variable. If the
development must require land. The
value of t-sig is smaller than α used, it can
more land area of a building in an area on
be concluded that independent variables
Timor Island to non-agricultural use so
individually have a signiicant inluence
the demand for building land is higher and
on the dependent variable.
what happens is the conversion of paddy
The t test is done by comparing the
ields to meet the demand.
t-sig (significance) at the error rate of
Variable of industrial number also
each independent variable that affects the
has a significant and positive effect to
dependent variable. If the value of t-sig
wetland area with 95% conidence level,
is smaller than the α used, then it can be
where if there is addition of industrial
concluded that the independent variable
amount equal to 1% it will decrease rice
individually has a signiicant effect on the
field area by 0.018 hectare. The most
dependent variable
developed industrial sector in Kupang
The t-test result to see the effect
city region. During the period of industry
of each independent variable on the
research is growing rapidly, especially
conversion of rice ield on Timor Island
small and medium industries. Wetland is
is signiicantly inluenced by the building
needed to meet the development of both
area and the number of industries.
small and medium-sized industries where
While real non-agricultural GRDP, the
more and more industries are increasingly
population, agricultural labor and long
wasted rice ields.
roads are not signiicant. Building area
The variable of industrial quantity
has signiicant effect to α = 0,01% while
also negatively inluence to wetland area
Number of industries have significant
with 95% conidence level, where if there
effect to α = 0,05%. The value of the
is addition of industrial amount equal to
alleged parameter used in the wet land
1% it will decrease wetland area equal to
conversion model is its elasticity value.
0.298%. The most developed industrial
The coeficient or elasticity values of the
sector in Kupang city region. During the
building area and the number of industries
period of industry research is growing
are 0.007 and 0.018, respectively
rapidly, especially small and medium
Building Area (X4) has a signiicant
industries. Wetland is needed to meet the
positive effect with the elasticity of 0.304.
development of both small and medium-
This shows that if the building area increased
sized industries where more and more
by 1% it will increase the conversion of
industries are increasingly wasted rice
320
Agro Ekonomi Vol. 28/No. 2, Desember 2017
ields. Overall, multiple linear regression
model above is appropriate and it.
Suggestion
According to the results of the
In line with the results of Putri (2015)
research, it is necessary to make efforts to
study entitled Analysis of Causes of Land
conserve paddy ields through prevention of
Function Distribution to Agricultural Land
paddy ield conversion and optimization of
Regency / City In Central Java Province
potential land use so that the sustainability
2003-2013, wide of residential land and
of agriculture in Timor Island can be
number of industry has a significant
maintained. The building area and the
and positive effect to the conversion of
number of industry have a signiicant effect
agricultural land in the 6 povinces of
on the conversion of paddy ields in Timor
Central Java.
Island. Therefore, local governments should
arrange and design local regulations depends
CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTION
on UUD Lestari about the conversion of
Conclusion
agricultural land such as determining which
Based on the analysis results on the
land may or not be converted, or which
trend of the paddy fields area in Timor
land needs to be maintained, especially for
Island NTT, it was obtained the result that
high-yielding paddy ields. In addition, the
the trend of paddy ield was in the form
development of appropriate agricultural
of linear lat trend. The equation of linear
technology application and the improvement
trend of wetland area on Timor Island in
of irrigation network infrastructure are
2005-2014 shows that time factor has no
needed to increase the productivity of
signiicant effect on wetland area. Based
paddy ields in order to reduce the impact
on the coeficient of this time factor has
of paddy ield conversion resulting from
a negative relationship to the area of
land conversion.
wetland, indicated by the value of the value
coeficient (-).
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