food crisis nuhfilweb
"The world's 200 wealthiest people have as much money
as about 40% of the global population, and yet 850
million people have to go
to bed hungry every night."
Source: United Nations World Food Programme
!
250
218.2
200
150
100
94.1
50
0
2002
2003
2004
Source: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization
2005
2006
2007
2008 / 1
2008 / 4
800
US$/ton
US
600
400
#
Corn
$
(As of Sept. 2008)
140
Wheat
120
Rice
100
Oil (right scale)
80
US$
S$/barrel
"
60
40
200
20
0
Since Jan. 2003, m
"#
"# $ "
0
&
!
"# $
"# $'
"
%
&
Source: Data from FAO 2008 and IMF 2008.
2008
%
'(( )'
!
$
(&
(
)
you
are
here
Source: Reproduced from Ronald Trostle, “Global Agricultural Supply and Demand: Factors Contributing to the Recent Increase in Food
Commodity Prices”, Outlook Report WRS-0801. Washington, DC: ERS/USDA, July 2008.
!
#
Monthly Prices of Select Commodities on World Markets, Jan. 1980 - July 2008
(Nominal U.S. dollars, indexed to January 2000 = 100)
500
Cotton
Maize
Wheat
Groundnut
Rice
Crude Oil
400
300
200
100
0
Source: Author's computation, from IMF data (www.imf.org/external/data.htm).
'
*
+
$
!
,
.
1
1
$
$
/
1 $
! !
-
+
+
0
+
2
/
'
*
+
!
$
+
$
Percent change in agricultural production due to climate change, 2008
This will have further price increasing effects
Source: Cline 2007
,
$
-
+
Total
Million tons
Million tons
1,200
2,000
900
1,600
600
1,200
300
0
800
1999
2000
Wheat
2001
2002
2003
Coarse grains
2004
2005
Rice
2006
2007*
Total (right)
Source: Data from FAO 2003, 20052005-07.
* Forecast.
3. Price rises happen when stocks are low
IMF
price
indexes
Total world
grain &
oilseeds
stocks
Source: Reproduced from Trostle (2008), from IMF data on prices and USDA estimates on stocks.
STOK PANGAN DUNIA
World Ending Stocks
160
140
120
Million 100
Metric 80
Tons 60
2005/6
2006/7
2007/8
40
20
0
Wheat
Corn
Rice
Soybean
13
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1970
1972
1973
1974
1975
1974
1971
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2007
2002
! +
1992
0
1982
/
#
1969
. +
$
0
Global Ending Stocks of Rice and Wheat 1960-2007
(kg per capita)
Kilograms per capita
4. Price rises happen when dollars are cheap
IMF
price
indexes
US dollars
per unit of
foreign
currency
(index of all
currencies,
weighted by
U.S. ag. trade
volumes)
Source: Reproduced from Trostle (2008), from IMF data on prices and USDA index of exchange rates.
5. Price rises happen when demand grows
Ethanol (mostly US)
Biodiesel (mostly EU)
Source: Reproduced from Trostle (2008), from USDA data and projections.
34
! 5 6 !+
!
!
…about the same share as increased feed use;
food use accounts for 44% of growth
Source: Reproduced from Trostle (2008), from USDA data and projections.
7 !
!
0 #
/
Source: Reproduced from Trostle (2008), from various estimates.
6. Price rises happen when Crude Oil Price increase
8
$
- '(( 9
*****************************
**
FAO, June 2008
US $/ton
$/to
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
rice
w heat
maize
soybean
+ +
sugarcane
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
The Balance of Food, 2025
,
!
(
-.-/
"
SOURCE: www.worldbank.org
$
0
("
-.-/
#
-.-/
#
-.-/
:
!
#
Trade
restriction
$
Trade
liberaliz.
$
Consumer
subsidy
Social
protection
Increase
supply
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Asia
Bangladesh
China
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Latin America
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Africa
Egypt
Ethiopia
Ghana
Kenya
Nigeria
Tanzania
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Source: IMF, FAO, and news reports, 20072007-08.
as about 40% of the global population, and yet 850
million people have to go
to bed hungry every night."
Source: United Nations World Food Programme
!
250
218.2
200
150
100
94.1
50
0
2002
2003
2004
Source: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization
2005
2006
2007
2008 / 1
2008 / 4
800
US$/ton
US
600
400
#
Corn
$
(As of Sept. 2008)
140
Wheat
120
Rice
100
Oil (right scale)
80
US$
S$/barrel
"
60
40
200
20
0
Since Jan. 2003, m
"#
"# $ "
0
&
!
"# $
"# $'
"
%
&
Source: Data from FAO 2008 and IMF 2008.
2008
%
'(( )'
!
$
(&
(
)
you
are
here
Source: Reproduced from Ronald Trostle, “Global Agricultural Supply and Demand: Factors Contributing to the Recent Increase in Food
Commodity Prices”, Outlook Report WRS-0801. Washington, DC: ERS/USDA, July 2008.
!
#
Monthly Prices of Select Commodities on World Markets, Jan. 1980 - July 2008
(Nominal U.S. dollars, indexed to January 2000 = 100)
500
Cotton
Maize
Wheat
Groundnut
Rice
Crude Oil
400
300
200
100
0
Source: Author's computation, from IMF data (www.imf.org/external/data.htm).
'
*
+
$
!
,
.
1
1
$
$
/
1 $
! !
-
+
+
0
+
2
/
'
*
+
!
$
+
$
Percent change in agricultural production due to climate change, 2008
This will have further price increasing effects
Source: Cline 2007
,
$
-
+
Total
Million tons
Million tons
1,200
2,000
900
1,600
600
1,200
300
0
800
1999
2000
Wheat
2001
2002
2003
Coarse grains
2004
2005
Rice
2006
2007*
Total (right)
Source: Data from FAO 2003, 20052005-07.
* Forecast.
3. Price rises happen when stocks are low
IMF
price
indexes
Total world
grain &
oilseeds
stocks
Source: Reproduced from Trostle (2008), from IMF data on prices and USDA estimates on stocks.
STOK PANGAN DUNIA
World Ending Stocks
160
140
120
Million 100
Metric 80
Tons 60
2005/6
2006/7
2007/8
40
20
0
Wheat
Corn
Rice
Soybean
13
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1970
1972
1973
1974
1975
1974
1971
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2007
2002
! +
1992
0
1982
/
#
1969
. +
$
0
Global Ending Stocks of Rice and Wheat 1960-2007
(kg per capita)
Kilograms per capita
4. Price rises happen when dollars are cheap
IMF
price
indexes
US dollars
per unit of
foreign
currency
(index of all
currencies,
weighted by
U.S. ag. trade
volumes)
Source: Reproduced from Trostle (2008), from IMF data on prices and USDA index of exchange rates.
5. Price rises happen when demand grows
Ethanol (mostly US)
Biodiesel (mostly EU)
Source: Reproduced from Trostle (2008), from USDA data and projections.
34
! 5 6 !+
!
!
…about the same share as increased feed use;
food use accounts for 44% of growth
Source: Reproduced from Trostle (2008), from USDA data and projections.
7 !
!
0 #
/
Source: Reproduced from Trostle (2008), from various estimates.
6. Price rises happen when Crude Oil Price increase
8
$
- '(( 9
*****************************
**
FAO, June 2008
US $/ton
$/to
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
rice
w heat
maize
soybean
+ +
sugarcane
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
The Balance of Food, 2025
,
!
(
-.-/
"
SOURCE: www.worldbank.org
$
0
("
-.-/
#
-.-/
#
-.-/
:
!
#
Trade
restriction
$
Trade
liberaliz.
$
Consumer
subsidy
Social
protection
Increase
supply
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Asia
Bangladesh
China
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Latin America
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Africa
Egypt
Ethiopia
Ghana
Kenya
Nigeria
Tanzania
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Source: IMF, FAO, and news reports, 20072007-08.