Analisis Kausalitas Antara Bi Rate Dan Capital Inflow Di Indonesia

LAMPIRAN
Lampiran 1
Hasil Uji Stasioneritas BI rate pada tingkat Second Difference
Null Hypothesis: D(BI_RATE,2) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5)

t-Statistic

Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic

-4.485869

0.0096

Test critical values:

1% level


-4.467895

5% level

-3.644963

10% level

-3.261452

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(BI_RATE,3)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/09/14 Time: 09:30
Sample (adjusted): 2008Q4 2013Q4
Included observations: 21 after adjustments

Variable


Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

D(BI_RATE(-1),2)

-1.040431

0.231935

-4.485869

0.0003

C


-0.002815

0.002554

-1.102267

0.2849

@TREND(2008Q1)

0.000212

0.000180

1.178382

0.2540

R-squared


0.527923

Mean dependent var

-0.000414

Adjusted R-squared

0.475470

S.D. dependent var

0.006693

S.E. of regression

0.004847

Akaike info criterion


-7.689213

Sum squared resid

0.000423

Schwarz criterion

-7.539995

Log likelihood

83.73673

Hannan-Quinn criter.

-7.656829

F-statistic


10.06470

Durbin-Watson stat

Prob(F-statistic)

0.001164

1.923929

Universitas Sumatera Utara

Lampiran 2
Hasil Uji Stasioneritas SBI pada tingkat Second Difference
Null Hypothesis: D(SBI,2) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5)

t-Statistic


Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic

-12.77804

0.0000

Test critical values:

1% level

-4.467895

5% level

-3.644963

10% level


-3.261452

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(SBI,3)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/09/14 Time: 09:36
Sample (adjusted): 2008Q4 2013Q4
Included observations: 21 after adjustments

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic


Prob.

D(SBI(-1),2)

-1.796131

0.140564

-12.77804

0.0000

C

418.2020

1365.519

0.306259


0.7629

@TREND(2008Q1)

-25.44550

95.21725

-0.267236

0.7923

R-squared

0.900743

Mean dependent var

83.47619


Adjusted R-squared

0.889715

S.D. dependent var

7956.137

S.E. of regression

2642.171

Akaike info criterion

18.72815

Sum squared resid

1.26E+08

Schwarz criterion

18.87737

Log likelihood

-193.6456

Hannan-Quinn criter.

18.76054

Durbin-Watson stat

2.364589

F-statistic

81.67395

Prob(F-statistic)

0.000000

Universitas Sumatera Utara

Lampiran 3
Hasil Uji Stasioneritas SUN pada tingkat Second Difference
Null Hypothesis: D(SUN) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5)

t-Statistic

Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic

-5.770420

0.0007

Test critical values:

1% level

-4.467895

5% level

-3.644963

10% level

-3.261452

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(SUN,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/09/14 Time: 12:27
Sample (adjusted): 2008Q4 2013Q4
Included observations: 21 after adjustments

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

D(SUN(-1))

-2.195285

0.380438

-5.770420

0.0000

D(SUN(-1),2)

0.438689

0.217446

2.017458

0.0597

C

-724.9021

2803.821

-0.258541

0.7991

@TREND(2008Q1)

62.65138

195.6700

0.320189

0.7527

R-squared

0.809211

Mean dependent var

80.71429

Adjusted R-squared

0.775543

S.D. dependent var

11416.81

S.E. of regression

5408.933

Akaike info criterion

20.19913

Sum squared resid

4.97E+08

Schwarz criterion

20.39809

Log likelihood

-208.0909

Hannan-Quinn criter.

20.24231

Durbin-Watson stat

2.227968

F-statistic

24.03459

Prob(F-statistic)

0.000002

Universitas Sumatera Utara

Lampiran 4
Pengujian Lag Lenght
VAR Lag Order Selection Criteria
Endogenous variables: SBI SUN BI_RATE
Exogenous variables: C
Date: 07/20/14 Time: 18:36
Sample: 2008Q1 2013Q4
Included observations: 21
Lag

LogL

LR

FPE

AIC

SC

HQ

0
1
2
3

-318.5458
-299.6135
-281.2641
-275.8662

NA
30.65244
24.46582*
5.654949

4.00e+09
1.58e+09
6.90e+08*
1.16e+09

30.62341
29.67747
28.78706*
29.13011

30.77263
30.27434
29.83158*
30.62229

30.65580
29.80701
29.01374*
29.45395

* indicates lag order selected by the criterion
LR: sequential modified LR test statistic (each test at 5% level)
FPE: Final prediction error
AIC: Akaike information criterion
SC: Schwarz information criterion
HQ: Hannan-Quinn information criterion

Universitas Sumatera Utara

Lampiran 5
Hasil Uji Kointegrasi
Date: 08/04/14 Time: 03:36
Sample (adjusted): 2008Q4 2013Q4
Included observations: 21 after adjustments
Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend (restricted)
Series: BI_RATE SBI SUN
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 2
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Hypothesized
No. of CE(s)

Eigenvalue

Trace
Statistic

0.05
Critical Value

Prob.**

None
At most 1
At most 2

0.581369
0.464611
0.222693

36.69640
18.41034
5.290331

42.91525
25.87211
12.51798

0.1820
0.3170
0.5552

Trace test indicates no cointegration at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)
Hypothesized
No. of CE(s)

Eigenvalue

Max-Eigen
Statistic

0.05
Critical Value

Prob.**

None
At most 1
At most 2

0.581369
0.464611
0.222693

18.28606
13.12001
5.290331

25.82321
19.38704
12.51798

0.3557
0.3184
0.5552

Max-eigenvalue test indicates no cointegration at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):
BI_RATE
123.4707
-60.28552
7.806705

SBI
0.001334
0.000323
-0.000310

SUN
-0.000576
0.000514
-0.000223

@TREND(08Q2)
0.229979
0.036769
0.138396

Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):
D(BI_RATE)
D(SBI)
D(SUN)

1.57E-05
-502.0705
2062.831

1 Cointegrating Equation(s):

0.001790
-713.4690
705.8012

0.001020
528.3321
762.1931

Log likelihood

-282.6478

Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
BI_RATE
SBI
SUN
@TREND(08Q2)

Universitas Sumatera Utara

1.000000

1.08E-05
(2.6E-06)

-4.66E-06
(2.4E-06)

0.001863
(0.00035)

Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(BI_RATE)
0.001933
(0.11648)
D(SBI)
-61990.97
(54475.6)
D(SUN)
254699.1
(88937.2)

2 Cointegrating Equation(s):

Log likelihood

-276.0878

Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
BI_RATE
SBI
SUN
@TREND(08Q2)
1.000000
0.000000
-7.25E-06
0.000210
(3.5E-06)
(0.00061)
0.000000
1.000000
0.239329
153.0386
(0.33702)
(59.5728)
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(BI_RATE)
-0.105967
5.99E-07
(0.11023)
(1.1E-06)
D(SBI)
-18979.12
-0.899897
(54183.1)
(0.54107)
D(SUN)
212149.5
2.978797
(95247.3)
(0.95114)

Universitas Sumatera Utara

Lampiran 6
Hasil Uji Granger Causality

Date: 07/11/14 Time: 16:41
Sample: 2008Q1 2013Q4
Lags: 2

Null Hypothesis:

DSBI does not Granger Cause DBI_RATE

Obs

F-Statistic

Prob.

20

1.13102

0.3487

1.09031

0.3613

1.37295

0.2834

4.97981

0.0219

0.22796

0.7989

2.74496

0.0964

DBI_RATE does not Granger Cause DSBI

DSUN does not Granger Cause DBI_RATE

20

DBI_RATE does not Granger Cause DSUN

DSUN does not Granger Cause DSBI
DSBI does not Granger Cause DSUN

20

Universitas Sumatera Utara

Lampiran 7
Hasil Uji Estimasi VAR
Vector Autoregression Estimates
Date: 08/04/14 Time: 03:41
Sample (adjusted): 2009Q1 2013Q4
Included observations: 20 after adjustments
Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
DBI_RATE

DSBI

DSUN

DBI_RATE(-1)

1.355534
(0.20420)
[ 6.63837]

-132901.7
(103867.)
[-1.27954]

-611831.9
(156501.)
[-3.90945]

DBI_RATE(-2)

-0.482550
(0.20790)
[-2.32111]

127773.4
(105749.)
[ 1.20827]

538707.7
(159336.)
[ 3.38095]

DSBI(-1)

4.60E-07
(5.1E-07)
[ 0.90115]

-0.024447
(0.25949)
[-0.09421]

0.852366
(0.39098)
[ 2.18009]

DSBI(-2)

2.62E-07
(5.6E-07)
[ 0.47236]

0.288637
(0.28258)
[ 1.02145]

1.063850
(0.42577)
[ 2.49865]

DSUN(-1)

2.07E-07
(2.3E-07)
[ 0.89670]

-0.045637
(0.11739)
[-0.38875]

-0.491459
(0.17688)
[-2.77846]

DSUN(-2)

2.25E-07
(2.2E-07)
[ 1.01471]

-0.030671
(0.11300)
[-0.27142]

-0.178164
(0.17026)
[-1.04641]

C

0.007389
(0.00598)
[ 1.23661]

260.6698
(3039.50)
[ 0.08576]

6858.840
(4579.74)
[ 1.49765]

0.914682
0.875305
0.000179
0.003712
23.22855
87.85441
-8.085441
-7.736935
0.067000
0.010511

0.163786
-0.222159
46338611
1887.991
0.424377
-174.9363
18.19363
18.54214
-65.80000
1707.796

0.698407
0.559210
1.05E+08
2844.714
5.017402
-183.1353
19.01353
19.36204
1420.695
4284.723

R-squared
Adj. R-squared
Sum sq. resids
S.E. equation
F-statistic
Log likelihood
Akaike AIC
Schwarz SC
Mean dependent
S.D. dependent

Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.)
Determinant resid covariance
Log likelihood
Akaike information criterion
Schwarz criterion

2.17E+08
59596820
-264.1674
28.51674
29.56226

Universitas Sumatera Utara

Lampiran 8
Data Perkembangan Capital Inflow dari sektor SUN
Periode
2008 trwI
trwII
trwIII
trwIV
2009 trwI
trwII
trwIII
trwIV
2010 trwI
trwII
trwIII
trwIV
2011 trwI
trwII
trwIII
trwIV
2012 trwI
trwII
trwIII
trwIV
2013 trwI
trwII
trwIII
trwIV

BI rate
8.00%
8.25%
9.00%
9.42%
8.25%
7.25%
6.58%
6.50%
6.50%
6.50%
6.50%
6.50%
6.67%
6.75%
6.75%
6.17%
5.83%
5.75%
5.75%
5.75%
5.75%
5.83%
6.81%
7.42%

SUN (milion US$)
2,412
3,566
971
-3,170
-10,184
14,225
1,496
1,848
4,899
2,600
2,300
1,520
2,200
2,900
2,000
-3
300
407
2
2.9
1,000
3,100
3,500
2,600

Universitas Sumatera Utara

Lampiran 9
Data Perkembangan Capital Inflow dari sektor SBI
Periode
2008 trwI
2008 trwII
2008 trwIII
2008 trwIV
2009 trwI
2009 trwII
2009 trwIII
2009 trwIV
2010 trwI
2010 trwII
2010 trwIII
2010 trwIV
2011 trwI
2011 trwII
2011 trwIII
2011 trwIV
2012 trwI
2012 trwII
2012 trwIII
2012 trwIV
2013 trwI
2013 trwII
2013 trwIII
2013 trwIV

SBI (milion US$)

BI rate
8.00%
8.25%
9.00%
9.42%
8.25%
7.25%
6.58%
6.50%
6.50%
6.50%
6.50%
6.50%
6.67%
6.75%
6.75%
6.17%
5.83%
5.75%
5.75%
5.75%
5.75%
5.83%
6.81%
7.42%

359
313
-1486
-1385
656
597
1747
926
2227
-2300
2600
-1100
2800
100
-2600
-3700
-399
1.30
0.40
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.10
0.30

Universitas Sumatera Utara