BBTN Pentingnya Konsistensi Pertumbuhan Kredit 20180809 NHKS Company Report (Bahasa)

• 0.9% vs. Last Price +25.2%

  Shares data

  Finance Bank Bloomberg

  41.98 Avg. Trd Val - 3M (bn) 108.02 Foreign Ownership 20.5%

  Pertumbuhan ini lebih rendah dibandingkan 15,1% pada 1Q18.

  Berharap pada Stabilnya Pertumbuhan KPR Pada 2Q18 BBTN masih mampu mencetak pertumbuhan kredit sebesar 19,1% y-y. Segmen KPR subsidi mampu tumbuh 30,3% dan menguasai 39,4% dari total portofolio kredit BBTN. Kami perkirakan bahwa pada akhir 2018 pertumbuhan kredit BBTN mencapai 18,1%, yang sedikit lebih rendah dibandingkan 21,0% pada 2017.

  Meskipun melambat, estimasi pertumbuhan 18,1% ini sudah mampu menstimulasi akselerasi pertumbuhan interest income sebesar 19,7% pada 2018 (vs. 12,4% pada 2017). Akselerasi ini akan ditopang oleh terhentinya tren penurunan suku bunga acuan sehingga diperkirakan loan yield BBTN akan stabil minimal di angka 10%.

  Pada 2018 kami perkirakan bahwa pertumbuhan laba bersih akan melambat karena kenaikan cost of deposit mulai 2H18 untuk memulihkan penurunan current account saving account (CASA). Namun laba bersih pada 2019 diperkirakan akan terakselerasi. Kecilnya resiko penurunan suku bunga yang didukung oleh stabilnya pertumbuhan kredit di atas 18% akan menghilangkan dampak kenaikan cost of deposit.

  40.0 Outstanding sh.(mn) 10,590 Market Cap (IDR bn) 29,440 Market Cap (USD mn) 2,043 Avg. Trd Vol - 3M (mn)

  Last Price (IDR) 2,620 Price date as of Aug 08, 2018 52 wk range (Hi/Lo) 3,890 / 2,110 Free float (%)

  Buy Dec 2018 TP (IDR) 3,280 Consensus Price (IDR) 3,311 TP to Consensus Price

BBTN IJ

• 62 21 797 6202, ext:214

  Bank Tabungan Negara Tbk | Summary (IDR bn) Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, NHKS Research

  ROE

  Rel. Ret. -22.5% 7.5% -11.3%

  Abs. Ret. -26.6% 12.4%

  12M

  3M

  1M

  Dividend yield 3.7% 1.6% 2.4% 2.9% Share Price Performance YTD

  49 57 63 76

  ROIC 8.0% 7.6% 6.8% 6.9% P/E 5.4x 12.5x 8.3x 6.9x P/BV 0.7x 1.7x 1.1x 1.0x DPS (IDR)

  1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2%

  ROA

  15.9% 14.8% 14.6% 15.5%

  2.8% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3%

  Target Harga Rp3.280 Kami menggunakan asumsi forward P/B sebesar 1,3x (1SD di atas rata-rata 4 tahun terakhir) sebagai basis metode valuasi. Target harga ini mengimplikasikan P/B 2018E sebesar 1,4x (vs 1,1x saat ini).

  NPL

  100.5% 100.5% 105.5% 106.7%

  BVPS (IDR) 1,806 2,046 2,302 2,615 Net Interest Margin 4.4% 4.1% 3.9% 4.0% Loan/Deposits

  EPS growth 41.5% 15.6% 11.0% 19.8%

  Operating Revenue 9,446 10,945 12,414 14,612 Net profit 2,619 3,027 3,360 4,025 EPS (IDR) 247 286 317 380

  Interest Income 17,139 19,272 23,077 27,077

  2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E

  raphon@nhsec.co.id

  Reuters BBTN.JK Raphon Prima

• 5.8%
• 1.9%
• 6.8%

  Please consider the rating criteria & important disclaimer NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia Company Report | Aug 09, 2018 Bank Tabungan Negara Tbk (BBTN) Pentingnya Konsistensi Pertumbuhan Kredit Ulasan Kinerja 2Q18 BBTN mencetak interest income sebesar Rp5,1 triliun yang tumbuh 12,4% y-y, tetapi net interest income hanya tumbuh 8,5% y-y menjadi Rp2,9 triliun. Laba bersih tercatat sebesar Rp739 miliar yang tumbuh 9,3% y-y.

  growth 14.5% 12.4% 19.7% 17.3%

  BDO Unibank 10,698 53,371 6.4% 4.1% 9.5% 20.7x 1.9x 0.9% Metropolitan Bank 5,733 41,612 6.5% 3.8% 8.3% 12.9x 1.1x 1.3% Philippine Island Bank 8,234 38,084 3.2% 3.6% 10.5% 18.5x 1.8x 1.8%

  Singapore

  Philippine

  Bank of Ayudhya 9,254 64,128 7.5% 3.7% 10.7% 12.7x 1.3x 2.0%

  Bangkok Bank 11,964 94,446 6.7% 2.4% 8.9% 11.4x 1.0x 3.1% Siam Commercial 14,989 92,841

  Thailand

  CIMB 13,636 124,711 17.0% 2.4% 9.8% 11.7x 1.2x 4.2% Malayan Banking 26,569 188,433 9.5% 1.8% 10.7% 13.5x 1.5x 5.6% Hong Leong 5,134 50,939 4.3% 1.6% 10.0% 12.2x 1.2x 2.2%

  Malaysia

  DBS 48,884 387,334 11.1% 1.9% 10.3% 13.8x 1.4x 6.5% UOB 34,684 268,287 19.2% 1.8% 11.3% 12.5x 1.4x 3.5% OCBC 36,892 340,370 21.4% 1.7% 11.5% 11.5x 1.3x 3.1%

  BBTN 2,036 19,235 11.7% 4.4% 15.1% 9.2x 1.3x 2.1% BBRI 28,510 82,886 11.0% 7.9% 19.6% 13.4x 2.5x 3.2% BMRI 23,484 82,772 44.3% 5.5% 14.5% 14.5x 2.0x 2.7% BBCA 41,200 55,219 12.2% 6.5% 18.8% 24.5x 4.3x 1.1% BBNI 10,355 52,203 9.4% 5.7% 15.5% 10.2x 1.5x 3.2%

  Company Report

  Company Market Cap (USD mn) Total Asset (USD mn) Net Profit Growth (LTM) Net Interest Margin (LTM) ROE (LTM) P/E (LTM) P/BV (LTM) Dividend Yield

  Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research

  ASEAN Banks

  Bank di Indonesia masih mampu mempertahankan NIM di atas bank ASEAN lain meskipun sedang menghadapi tekanan penurunan suku bunga acuan oleh bank sentral. Keunggulan NIM ini mampu ditranslasikan menjadi ROE yang lebih tinggi. Bank di Indonesia mampu mencetak pertumbuhan laba bersih di kisaran 10%-20% yang mampu disaingi oleh beberapa bank di Malaysia dan Singapura, seperti OCBC, CIMB dan Malayan Banking. Namun, tiga bank tersebut memiliki aset yang jauh lebih besar dibandingkan dengan aset bank di Indonesia.

  Daya Saing Perbankan Indonesia di ASEAN Industri perbankan di Indonesia menjadi prioritas investasi utama di ASEAN karena menawarkan suku bunga kredit yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan suku bunga yang ditawarkan bank lain di ASEAN. Hal ini merupakan faktor utama keunggulan industri perbankan di Indonesia.

  BBTN juga merupakan mitra utama pemerintah dalam menyelenggarakan program KPR subsidi. KPR subsidi merupakan program pemerintah dalam mendukung visi penyediaan 1 juta rumah. Program ini menyasar masyarakat Indonesia dengan penghasilan rendah yakni di bawah Rp4 juta per bulan.

  Sekilas tentang BBTN BBTN merupakan bank milik negara yang memiliki fokus bisnis penyaluran kredit pemilikan rumah (KPR). BBTN pada 2Q18 menyalurkan KPR sebesar Rp155,4 triliun atau 74% dari total penyaluran kredit. Layanan KPR BBTN menyasar pembiayaan perumahan bagi golongan kelas menengah dan bawah.

  Aug 09, 2018

• 13.0% 3.2% 11.7% 11.9x 1.4x 3.8%

  Company Report

  Aug 09, 2018

  Performance Highlights Interest Income (IDR bn) | 3Q15 - 2Q18 Net Profit (IDR bn) | 3Q15 - 2Q18

  Source: Company, NHKS research Source: Company, NHKS research

  Outstanding Loan (IDR bn) | 3Q15 - 2Q18 Deposit (IDR bn) | 3Q15 - 2Q18

  Source: Company, NHKS research Source: Company, NHKS research

  Loan Composition | 2Q18 Loan Yield, Cost of Deposit, NIM | 3Q15 - 2Q18

  Source: Company, NHKS research Source: Company, NHKS research

  Company Report

  Aug 09, 2018

  Multiple Valuation Forward P/B band | Last 4 years Dynamic Forward P/B band | Last 4 years

  Source: NHKS research Source: NHKS research

  Rating and target price update Target Price Revision Date Rating Target Price Last Price Consensus vs Last Price vs Consensus

  03/08/2018 Hold 3,790 (Dec 2018) 3,770 3,825 +0.5% 0.9%

• 08/09/2018 Buy 3,280 (Dec 2018) 2,620 3,311 +25.2% 0.9%
• Source: NHKS research, Bloomberg

  Analyst Coverage Rating Closing and Target Price

  Source: Bloomberg Source: NHKS research

  NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia (NHKS) stock ratings

  1. Period: End of year target price

  2. Rating system based on a stock’s absolute return from the date of publication : Greater than +15%

   Buy : -15% to +15%  Hold : Less than -15%  Sell

  Company Report

  Aug 09, 2018

  Summary of Financials

DISCLAIMER

INCOME STATEMENT BALANCE SHEET

  

This report and any electronic access hereto are restricted and intended only for the clients and related entity of PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia. This

report is only for information and recipient use. It is not reproduced, copied, or made available for others. Under no circumstances is it considered as a selling

offer or solicitation of securities buying. Any recommendation contained herein may not suitable for all investors. Although the information here is obtained

from reliable sources, it accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies, respective employees,

and agents disclaim any responsibility and liability for claims, proceedings, action, losses, expenses, damages, or costs filed against or suffered by any person

as a result of acting pursuant to the contents hereof. Neither is PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies, employees, nor agents liable for

errors, omissions, misstatements, negligence, inaccuracy arising herefrom. All rights reserved by PT NH Korindo Securities Indonesia ^{BBTN Summary Last Price (IDR) 2,620}

^{Target Price (IDR) 3,280 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E}

^{Rating: Buy ROE 15.9% 14.8% 14.6% 15.5% ROA 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% ROIC 8.0% 7.6% 6.8% 6.9% Opera ti ng ROA 4.9% 4.6% 4.4% 4.5%}

^{in IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E Pre-Provi s i on ROA 2.1% 2.0% 1.8% 1.9%}

^{Interest Income 17,139 19,272 23,077 27,077 Non-Interes t Income/Op. Rev 13.6% 14.7% 15.2% 15.2%}

^{Growth (% y/y) 14.5% 12.4% 19.7% 17.3% Cos t/Income 57.0% 56.4% 58.5% 58.5%}

^{Interes t Expens es (8,975) (9,931) (12,556) (14,693) Ca s h Di vi dend (IDR bn) 524 605 672 805}

^{Net Interest Income 8,164 9,341 10,521 12,384 Di vi dend Yi el d (%) 3.7% 1.6% 2.4% 2.9%}

^{Net Interest Margin 4.4% 4.1% 3.9% 4.0% Pa yout Ra ti o (%) 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%}

^{Net Fee Income 591 750 850 1,000 Equi ty/As s ets 8.9% 8.3% 8.1% 8.0%}

^{Tra di ng Income 282 403 414 487 Loa n/Depos i ts 100.5% 100.5% 105.5% 106.7%}

^{Other Opera ti ng Income 409 451 630 741 Loa n/As s ets 76.8% 76.1% 78.3% 79.9%}

^{Operating Revenue 9,446 10,945 12,414 14,612 NPL 2.8% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3%}

^{Opera ti ng Expens es (5,387) (6,169) (7,262) (8,547) Loa n Los s Res erves /Loa ns 1.3% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0%}

^{Pre-provisioning OP (PPOP) 4,060 4,776 5,153 6,065 Depos i ts /Li a bi l i ti es 83.9% 82.6% 80.7% 81.4%}

^{Provi s i on for Impa i rment (708) (884) (882) (923) CASA/Depos i ts 49.3% 48.3% 47.6% 46.7%}

^{EBT 3,330 3,862 4,285 5,135 Ti me Depos i ts /Depos i ts 48.5% 48.9% 50.0% 50.6%}

^{Income Ta x (711) (834) (926) (1,109) Pa r Va l ue (IDR) 500 500 500 500}

^{Non-control l i ng Interes t - - - - Tota l Sha res (mn) 10,590 10,590 10,590 10,590}

^{Net Profit 2,619 3,027 3,360 4,025 Sha re Pri ce (IDR) 1,340 3,570 2,620 2,620}

^{Growth (% y/y) 41.5% 15.6% 11.0% 19.8% Ma rket Ca p (IDR tn) 14.2 37.8 27.7 27.7}

^{in IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E}

^{Ca s h 1,007 1,028 979 1,273 Pri ce /Ea rni ngs 5.4x 12.5x 8.3x 6.9x}

^{Pl a cement i n Ba nks 28,600 37,808 35,251 34,731 Pri ce /Book Va l ue 0.7x 1.7x 1.1x 1.0x}

^{Net Loa ns 162,330 196,635 232,600 275,219 Pri ce/Op. Revenue 1.5x 3.5x 2.2x 1.9x}

^{Inves tment 13,415 15,890 18,786 22,203 PE/EPS Growth 0.1x 0.8x 0.8x 0.3x}

^{Fi xed As s et 4,659 4,837 4,870 4,893 EV/Opera ti ng Revenue 2.5x 2.9x 3.2x 3.0x}

^{Other As s ets 4,157 5,167 7,812 9,235 EV/PPOP 5.7x 6.7x 7.7x 7.1x}

^{Total Assets 214,168 261,365 300,298 347,554 EV (IDR bn) 23,311 31,866 39,478 43,213}

^{Depos i ts 163,640 197,919 222,746 260,335 Op. Revenue CAGR (3-Yr) 13.8% 19.8% 16.2% 15.7%}

^{Debt 24,304 32,856 40,429 44,458 EPS CAGR (3-Yr) 18.8% 39.5% 22.0% 15.4%}

^{Other l i a bi l i ti es 7,094 8,927 12,745 15,068 Ba s i c EPS (IDR) 247 286 317 380}

^{Total Liabilities 195,038 239,702 275,919 319,860 Di l uted EPS (IDR) 247 286 317 380}

^{Ca pi ta l Stock 5,295 5,295 5,295 5,295 BVPS (IDR) 1,806 2,046 2,302 2,615}

^{Reta i ned Ea rni ngs 9,008 11,512 14,266 17,619 Op. Revenue PS (IDR) 892 1,034 1,172 1,380}

^{Shareholders' Equity 19,131 21,663 24,379 27,694 DPS (IDR) 49 57 63 Net Income 2,619 3,027 3,360 4,025 DCF (IDR bn) 76}

^{in IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E}

^{Deprec & Provi s i on 924 1,099 580 465 NOPAT 3,193 3,745 4,039 4,755}

^{Chg. In Worki ng Ca pi ta l 111 (2,875) (2,015) 899 +Depr./Amor. 924 1,099 580 465}

^{CFO 3,655 1,252 1,925 5,389 -Chg. i n Loa n (26,150) (35,210) (51,283) (42,320)}

^{Net Cha nges i n Loa n (26,150) (35,210) (51,283) (42,320) -Incr. (Decr.) i n Worki ng Ca p. 111 (2,875) (2,015) 899}

^{CFI (28,124) (34,377) (47,491) (46,003) (Unl evered) FCFF (21,921) (33,241) (48,679) (36,202)}

^{Di vi dends Pa i d (370) (524) (605) (672) WACC}

^{Net Cha nges i n Depos i t 32,279 32,859 21,420 37,589 Cos t of Debt (Ta x Adj.) 8.2% 5.7% 7.3% 7.4%}

^{CFF 33,867 42,355 31,856 40,908 Cos t of Equi ty (COE) 9.5% 10.3% 12.9% 13.0%}

^{Net Changes in Cash 9,398 9,229 (13,711) 294 WACC (%) 8.7% 8.2% 9.6% 9.5%}

^{RIM Sprea d (FROE-COE) (%) 9.4% 5.6% 2.6% 3.5% Res i dua l Income (IDR bn) 1,307 1,062 557 848}

^{By Geography % Shareholders % Equi ty Cha rge 1,312 1,965 2,802 3,178}

^{Indones i a 79.5 Republ i c of Indones i a 60.0 EVA Uni ted Sta tes 8.4 Di mens i ona l Fund 1.9 Inves ted Ca pi ta l (IDR bn) 36,214 43,434 54,519 64,808 Luxembourg 4.8 Va ngua rd 1.2 ROIC-WACC (%) 0.2% 0.5% -2.2% -2.2% Sweden 2.6 Svens ka Ha ndel s . 1.2 EVA (IDR bn) 54 196 (1,175) (1,428)}

  CASH FLOW STATEMENT DCF, RIM & EVA OWNERSHIP PROFITABILITY & STABILITY _{August 8, 2018 Dec 2018}

  ^{Analyst: Raphon Prima}