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developing region; that is a combination of domestic factors policy tightening and external ones lower demand from importers; lower commodity prices.
Table 2.3.1.1.1: Real Regional GDP Growth Rates
Country Actual
Projection 2010
2011 2012
2013 2014
China 10.4
9.3 7.8
8.0 8.2
Australia 2.6
2.4 3.6
3.0 3.3
Singapore 14.8
5.2 1.3
2.0 5.1
ASEAN-5 7.0
4.5 6.1
5.9 5.5
Indonesia 6.2
6.5 6.2
6.3 6.4
Vietnam 6.8
5.9 5.0
5.2 5.2
Philippines 7.6
3.9 6.6
6.0 5.5
Thailand 7.8
0.1 6.4
5.9 4.2
Malaysia 7.2
5.1 5.6
5.1 5.2
Timor-Leste 9.5
12.0 8.2
8.0 8.8
Source: National Directorate of Economic Policy, Ministry of Finance 2003 and IMF WEO April 2013 Timor-Leste GDP refers to the non-petroleum sector only
Preliminary forecast Target
2.3.1.2: Trends in International Prices
Global inflation has been subdued during 2012 and is expected to remain below 4 throughout 2013 and 2014. In 2012, the rate of increase of consumer prices in advanced
and emerging and developing economies has decreased to 2.0 and 6.1 respectively, from 2.7 and 7.1 in 2011. IMF projections
5
indicate that this rate is expected to further decline in emerging and developing economies in 2013 and 2014, reaching 5.5 in 2014, mainly
because of decreases in both food and energy prices. However, consumer prices are expected to start increasing in 2014 in advanced economies, pulled up by the expected rise
in prices in Japan due to increases in the consumption tax.
Oil Prices
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After increasing by 31.6 in 2011, oil prices rose by only 1.0 in 2012. Nevertheless, prices remained high, at 105.0, mostly because of geopolitical instability in the Middle East and
Northern Africa region as well as embargoes and sanctions from Western countries towards Iran and Syria. Prices in 2013 and 2014 are expected to moderate due to increased
production in non-OPEC countries and a reduction in demand from advanced economies. Futures markets indicate reductions of almost 5 for both 2013 and 2014. By 2014, oil
prices should therefore fall back below the 100 mark to 95.36.
5
IMF WEO April and July 2013
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For a description of how petroleum prices affect revenues in Timor-Leste see section 2.5.3 Petroleum Revenues and Investments
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Agricultural Commodity Prices After the June 2012 dip and the subsequent rise in July 2012 of international agricultural
commodity prices, which alerted markets worldwide to the possibility of a food price crisis, prices stabilized at the end of 2012 and at the start of 2013. After increasing in the months
of March and April 2013 because of increased dairy prices due to low production in New Zealand, the FAO food price index declined in May and June 2013 Figure 2.3.1.1.2,
reflecting lower prices of cereals such as maize and wheat. Global production of these commodities is forecast to be strong this year. Rice prices have been stable overall since the
beginning of the year, though prices have varied depending on the origin. By the end of 2013, global production, spurred by favourable weather conditions in key producing
countries in Asia, is forecasted to rise by 2.0. This should exert downward pressure on prices.
Figure 2.3.1.1.2: Food Price Index June 2009-June 2013
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization FAO
2.3.2: Domestic Economy
In May 2013, the 2000-2011 National Accounts for Timor-Leste were published
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. This publication reflects the strong effort by the Government, through the Ministry of Finance
and the General Directorate of Statistics DGE, to provide a consistent time series of data from 2000-2011. The 2000-2011 National Accounts present three important additions to the
previous publication in 2012. First, they extend the 2004-2010 series back to 2000, thus offering to the public four additional years of data for the three approaches to GDP
measurement production, expenditure and income. Second, the availability of new source statistics enabled DGE to update the 2004-2010 series and thus provide a more accurate
depiction of the economy during these years. Finally, the publication offers the first official
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General Directorate of Statistics DGE, 2013.
