3
It has also taken a lead in providing relief after disasters, in partnership with civil society organizations and the municipal council.
The city is highly regarded for its urban management, which includes a strong revenue base − the municipal corporation has an average annual
gross income of around three billion rupees around US 70 million. The city was also recognized as among the cleanest in India. It was
also the first municipal corporation in India to develop an information technology policy and all departments were computerized in 1998. Part of
the motivation behind the improvements in urban management was the plague epidemic that hit Surat in 1994 and that threatened its economic
success. Partly in response to the epidemic, the municipal corporation’s structure was amended from a vertical hierarchy to a more decentralized
structure within its 38 election wards and their grouping into seven administrative zones.
II. FLOOD RISKS
It is estimated that around 90 per cent of Surat’s geographical area is affected by some type of climate hazard, whether flooding, coastal storms
and cyclones or inundation associated with high tides and sea level rise. Much of the city and its surrounds are less than 10 metres above mean
sea level. These hazards have not all been experienced with the same intensity. Only two cyclones, for instance, have been reported passing
TA B L E 1 Land use in SUDA planning area 1978−2004
Land use Area
1978 km
2
Area 1995 km
2
Area 2004 km
2
Residential 27.0
40.0 61.9
46.8 98.1
57.5 Commercial
1.4 2.1
2.6 1.9
4.2 2.4
Industrial 10.1
14.9 27.8
21.0 30.2
17.7 Educational public purpose
5.4 8.0
7.4 5.6
5.8 3.4
Recreation, gardens and public space
0.2 0.3
0.6 0.4
1.1 0.6
Transport and communications
7.9 11.7
16.6 12.6
15.6 9.2
Agriculture 15.5
23.0 15.5
11.7 15.5
9.1 Total urbanized area
67.5 100.0
132.4 100.0
170.5 100.0
Non-urbanized area 654.5
− 589.6
− 551.5
−
Total 722.0
− 722.0
− 722.0
−
SOURCE: Surat Municipal Council 2006, Surat City Development Plan, page 17.
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through the Gulf of Khambhat in the last 140 years, the most recent in 1976. The highest tide, recorded in 2007, inundated some coastal areas
that had never previously been submerged by tides. Flooding has been a recurrent event, however. The city has records
of floods going back to 1869, and on average the city flooded every two and a half years between 1869 and 1884. Flood frequency fell between
1949 and 1979, when the average natural flood occurrence was once every four years. Since 1979, there have been five major floods 1979,
1990, 1994, 1998 and 2006, and the floods of 2006 inundated 75 per cent of the city area with a very high cost to the population, the city
economy and the municipal corporation running to several hundred billion rupees. Around 150 people are officially estimated to have lost
their lives; unofficial estimates suggest that the death toll may have been more than 500.
Many of the most serious floods have resulted from heavy rainfall in the Tapi River’s catchment area, which covers 65,145 square kilometres,
only six per cent of which is in Gujarat; 79 per cent is in the neighbouring state of Maharashtra and 15 per cent is in Madhya Pradesh where the
river originates. The monsoon generally starts in this area during the third week of June and there are occasional heavy rainstorms from
the beginning of August to the end of September. The catchment area receives around 90 per cent of its annual rainfall between June and
October and most floods occur in August. The Ukai multi-purpose dam, built 94 kilometres upstream of Surat
and completed in 1972, was intended to include flood control along with its primary tasks of providing water to irrigate the coastal plains of
Gujarat and generating electricity. Heavy rainfall in the dam’s catchment area especially in Maharashtra leads to heavy inflow into the dam’s
reservoir and often heavy discharges, which then flood Surat. One of the major constraints for flood prevention is the inability to manage the Ukai
dam around competing demands. For purposes of irrigation, for example, the reservoir ideally should be full by the end of the monsoon rains; it
can be difficult to coordinate this need with measures to prevent flooding in Surat.
Since the construction of the dam, Surat’s growth has expanded dramatically along both sides of the river, which has meant major
modifications in the hydrology in Surat and Hazira. Increases in the built-up area, construction in the floodplains, filling in of the riverbed
and floodplains at Hazira, silting up of the riverbed due to tides and to the construction of embankments, new bridges and the Singanpore weir
which prevents the ingress of tidal water and so protects the quality of the water from which city supplies are drawn have all contributed to reducing
both the capacity of the river and the open space that allows floodwaters to spread out. In addition, the Hazira industrial complex downstream
of Surat has grown by reclaiming sections of the floodplain, thereby narrowing the mouth of the Tapi River where it meets the sea. Raising the
ground level by more than three metres in Hazira, and the closure of tidal creeks that could potentially drain the water, further reduced the size of
the floodplain, and sea level rise is likely to further aggravate the free flow of floodwaters. The large-scale industrial development at the mouth of
the river also causes a rise in the water level immediately upstream.
The floods of 1998, 2004 and 2006 occurred following emergency discharges of the Ukai dam. While the river, within its embankments, can
5
safely discharge around 0.3 million cusecs cubic feet per second, inflows of up to 1.3 million cusecs over three to five days have to be managed in
order to control flooding, often at the end of the rainy season. The largest peak flow was in 1968, at 1.5 million cusecs; the flood in 1970 had a peak
flow of 1.3 cusecs.
In addition to the Tapi floods, Surat also faces local flooding called Khadi floods from two streams that pass through the southern part of the
city. These streams flood during heavy local rains and can cause serious damage to settlements located near their banks. This happened in 2004,
2005 and 2007. In the 2004 floods, nearly 400,000 people were affected; there was also a power failure lasting two days, water supply lines were
disrupted for a week and many city neighbourhoods were inaccessible for two days.
3
There are also new areas that have experienced unexpected flooding and waterlogging – perhaps because of the blocking of natural
water flow patterns by infrastructure and new developments.
4
The 2006 floods brought major disruption to the city’s economy, and industry took nearly a month to return to production. Some of the
industries located on the eastern edge of the city were not inundated – but they were affected by the absence of workers. Around 77 per cent of the
working population lost between 15 and 30 days’ work. Industrial losses totalled 160 billion rupees around U 3.5 billion, with around three-
fifths of this being direct losses and the rest from loss of production. Loss to public infrastructure, including the dam, flood embankments, electricity
and telephone lines totalled 25 billion rupees US 544 million.
III. SURAT’S VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE a. Climate change scenarios
