22 Figure 3.
Maps of Restricted Area
Table 8. Scenarios used in spatial modeling
Scenarios Land Requirement
Spatial Policies
First Baseline
Equal with the trend of the land use change in common
No Spatial Policy Second
Equal with the trend of the land use change in common
Forest area is restricted to be converted into other
land use area
Third The increasing growth of
population No Spatial Policy
Fourth The increasing growth of
population Forest area is restricted to
be converted into other land use area
2.3.3. Model Validation
An important stage in the development of any predictive change model is validation. Typically, one gauge means the understanding of the process and the
power of the model by using it to predict some periods of time when the land use conditions are known. This is then used as a test for validation.
The first is called ‘validate’, and it provides a comparative analysis on the
basis of the Kappa Index Analysis. Kappa is essentially a statement of proportional accuracy. Kappa is computed as:
23 =
� ∑ �
�� �
�=
− ∑ �
�+
, �
+� �
�=
� − ∑ �
�+
, �
+� �
�=
Where :
� = Total number of sites in the matrix, � = Number of rows in the matrix
�
��
=
Number in row i and column i �
�+
=
Total for row i, and �
+�
= Total for column i.
Kappa can be used to determine if the values contained in an error matrix represent a result significantly better than random Jensen 1996.
2.4. Result Discussion
This section will mainly discuss the results of overall analysis, including analysis of land use changes, examination of driving factors in logistic regression
and land use scenario development by using relevant variables in the CLUE-S model. The first section explains the result of identifying, quantifying and trend
analysis of land use change. The second section of this chapter mainly demonstrates the use of relevant variables logistic regression analysis in development scenarios
of future land use. The model used will depict the effect of land use change to the future land use. All of sections of this chapter will be directly followed by
discussion to provide clear explanation about all of the findings of this research.
2.4.1. Land Use Pattern
2.4.1.1. Land Use Maps Year 1991 and 2009
According to the classification processes, there are five land uses that could be identified from all of images: water, grassland, estate, settlement and forest.
Description of each land uses are explained in Table 4 and the location and distribution of land use could be seen in the figure below.
