Pengaruh Faktor Sosial Ekonomi dan Budaya terhadap Efektivitas Program Keluarga Berencana dalam Hubungan Penurunan Tingkat Fertilitas pada Masyarakat Jawa Timur Repository - UNAIR REPOSITORY

  

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J a w a T im u r s a la h s a t u p r o v in s i y a n g t e la h b e r h a s il d a la m u s a h a m e n g e n d a lik a n ju m la h p e n d u d u k .

  D is a d a r i a t a u t id a k ju m la h p e n d u d u k y a n g b e s a r le b ih m e r u p a k a n b e b a n d ib a n d in g s e b a g a i m o d a l p e m b a n g u n a n . P r o v in s i J a w a T im u r s e la m a 3 0 t a h u n t e r a k h ir t e la h b e r h a s il m e n u r u n k a n p e r t u m b u h a n p e n d u d u k , d a r i r a t a - r a t a 1 , 5 4 % p e r t a h u n ( S P - 1 9 7 1 ) m e n ja d i 0 , 6 3 % ( S P - 2 0 0 0 ) . P e n u r u n a n t a d i d iim b a n g i d e n g a n m e n u r u n n y a t in g k a t k e la h ir a n ( T F R ) , d a r i 4 , 7 2 m e n ja d i 2 , 0 0 p a d a k u r u n w a k t u y a n g s a m a . D e n g a n m e n u r u n n y a t in g k a t p e r t u m b u h a n p e n d u d u k d a n t in g k a t k e la h ir a n ( T F R ) d i J a w a T im u r s e la m a in i, a d a k a h p e n g a r u h d a r i fa k t o r s o s ia l, f a k t o r e k o n o m i, f a k t o r b u d a y a , f a k t o r p e la k s a n a a n K e lu a r g a B e r e n c a n a , f a k t o r e f e k t iv it a s p r o g r a m K e lu a r g a B e r e n c a n a , f a k t o r p e k e r ja a n ib u d a n t in g k a t p r o d u k t iv it a s ib u P a s a n g a n U s ia S u b u r ( P U S ) ? F a k t o r m a n a y a n g p a lin g b e r p e n g a r u h t e r h a d a p e f e k t iv it a s d a n t in g k a t f e r t ilit a s b a ik s e c a r a p o s it if m a u p u n s e c a r a n e g a t if ? J e n is p e n e lit ia n b e r s if a t k o r e la s io n a l, y a it u s u a t u u p a y a u n t u k m e n e lit i h u b u n g a n a n t a r v a r ia b e l d a n h u b u n g a n t e r s e b u t d a p a t b e r s if a t s im e t r is , a s im e t r is a t a u r e s ip r o k a l. D it in ja u d a r i s if a t p e r m a s a la h a n n y a , p e n e lit ia n in i d a p a t ju g a d ig o lo n g k a n s e b a g a i je n is p e n e lit ia n e k s p la n a t o r i, y a it u p e n e lit ia n y a n g d ila k u k a n d e n g a n c a r a m e n je la s k a n g e ja la y a n g d it im b u lk a n o le h s u a t u o b y e k p e n e lit ia n . D a la m p e n e lit ia n in i f a k t o r -f a k t o r y a n g b e r p e n g a r u h t e r h a d a p e f e k t iv it a s p e la k s a n a a n p r o g r a m K e lu a r g a B e r e n c a n a d a n t e r h a d a p t in g k a t f e r t ilit a s ( T F R ) d iu k u r m e la lu i f a k t o r s o s ia l, e k o n o m i d a n b u d a y a . M a s in g -m a s in g f a k t o r m e m ilik i in d ik a t o r s e b a g a i b e r ik u t : - F a k t o r s o s ia l, d e n g a n t ig a in d ik a t o r y a it u t in g k a t p e n d id ik a n P U S , t in g k a t p e n d id ik a n s u a m i d a n p e k e r ja a n s u a m i. - F a k t o r e k o n o m i, d iu k u r d e n g a n e m p a t in d ik a t o r y a it u b e s a r n y a p e n g e lu a r a n k e lu a r g a u n t u k m a k a n d a n n o n m a k a n , s t a t u s t e m p a t t in g g a l, la n t a i r u m a h d a n s a r a n a t r a n s p o r t a s i. - F a k t o r b u d a y a , d iu k u r d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n 9 in d ik a t o r y a it u n o r m a a n a k ju m la h a n a k / s u m b e r r e je k i, je n is k e la m in , f u n g s i a n a k s e b a g a i p e n y a m b u n g g e n e r a s i, f u n g s i s e b a g a i t e m p a t b e r lin d u n g h a r i t u a d a n s e b a g a i s u m b e r r e z e k i, k e p a t u h a n t o k o h fo r m a l d a n n o n f o r m a l, p e m ilik a n s a r a n a h ib u r a n , p e m ilik a n s a r a n a in f o r m a s i. . - F a k t o r p e la k s a n a a n p r o g r a m K B , d iu k u r d e n g a n t u ju h in d ik a t o r y a it u f r e k u e n s i p e n y u lu h a n d a r i D in a s , t o k o h m a s y a r a k a t , t o k o h a g a m a , p e n g e t a h u a n a s e p to r t e n t a n g K B , k e m u d a h a n u n tu k m e m p e r o le h a la t d a n p e la y a n a n K B , s e r t a b e s a r n y a b ia y a . M e t o d e p e n e lit ia n d ila k u k a n d e n g a n c a r a s u r v e i, d e n g a n p e n d e k a t a n k u a n t it a t if - m e t o d e p e n g u m p u la n d a t a m e n g g u n a k a n k u e s io n e r s e b a g a i in s t r u m e n p e n e lit ia n le w a t w a w a n c a r a . Ju m la h s a m p e l k u r a n g le b ih 6 4 3 r e s p o n d e n d a r i p a s a n g a n u s ia s u b u r . P e n a r ik a n s a m p e l d a r i p o p u la s i d ila k u k a n s e c a r a m u lt is t a g e s a m p lin g , r e s p o n d e n t e r s e b a r d i t ig a w ila y a h b u d a y a , u n t u k w ila y a h b u d a y a M a t a r a m a n d iw a k ili 2 1 0 r e s o p o n d e n , P e s is ir A r e k d iw a k ili 2 1 2 r e s p o n d e n d a n M a d u r a d iw a k ili 2 2 1 r e s p o n d e n . D a t a h a s il p e n e lit ia n d ia n a lis is m e n g g u n a k a n S t r u c t u r a l E q u it a t io n M o d e lin g ( S E M ) d e n g a n s o f t w a r e A M O S 4 . 0 1 .

  P r o f il R e s p o n d e n y a n g D it e lit i J u m la h R e s p o n d e n y a n g d it e lit i s e b a n y a k 6 4 3 P U S , t e r s e b a r d i 3 w ila y a h b u d a y a y a n g a d a d i J a w a T im u r , d a r i m e r e k a s e b a n y a k 7 6 , 7 % s e b a g a i a s e p t o r a k t if d a n 2 2 , 7 % b u k a n s e b a g a i a s e p t o r . D a r i ju m la h t e r s e b u t h a n y a 4 , 8 % r e s p o n d e n m e n y a t a k a n t id a k p e r n a h s a m a s e k a li ik u t K e lu a r g a B e r e n c a n a . T in g k a t p e n d id ik a n r e s p o n d e n s e b a n y a k 1 0 , 0 % t id a k t a m a t , 2 9 , 9 % t a m a t S D , 1 9 , 8 % t a m a t S M P , 2 7 , 7 % t a m a t S L T A d a n 1 2 , 8 % t a m a t P e r g u r u a n T in g g i. J e n is p e k e r ja a n 4 2 , 9 % t id a k b e k e r ja s e b a g a i ib u r u m a h t a n g g a , 2 4 , 4 % s e b a g a i p e d a g a n g d a n 1 6 , 2 % s e b a g a i p e g a w a i. K o n d is i e k o n o m i d a r i ju m la h 6 4 3 P U S 3 4 , 6 9 % t e r m a s u k k e lo m p o k m is k in , 5 5 , 6 6 % k e lo m p o k m e n e n g a h d a n 9 , 6 5 % t e r m a s u k k e lo m p o k m a m p u . J u m la h a n a k y a n g d ila h ir k a n ( T F R ) d a r i k e lo m p o k m is k in ( 7 8 , 8 0 % ) d a n k e lo m p o k m e n e n g a h ( 7 1 , 2 0 % ) m e m ilik i a n a k # 8 8 0 4 ; 2 d a n k e lo m p o k m a m p u ( 5 7 . 0 0 % ) m e m ilik i a n a k : 2 : 2 . K e lo m p o k m a m p u r a t a - r a t a m e m ilik i a n a k le b ih b a n y a k d ib a n d in g k a n k e lo m p o k m is k in . U n tu k m e n g u k u r e f e k t iv it a s p e la k s a n a a n p r o g r a m K B d ig u n a k a n a la t a n a lis is d e n g a n u ji s t a t is t ik t - t e s t c la n F - t e s t ( A N O V A ) . H a s il t e m u a n d a r i p e n e lit ia n in i m e n u n ju k k a n b a h w a p e la k s a n a a n p r o g r a m K B d i J a w a T im u r s e la m a 3 0 t a h u n s u d a h e f e k t if ( T F R d a r i 4 . 7 2 t u r u n m e n ja d i 2 . 1 5 ) , d e n g a n u r u t a n k e b e r h a s ila n s e b a g a i b e r ik u t ; w ila y a h b u d a y a P e s is ir A r e k p a lin g b e r h a s il T F R ( 2 . 0 6 ) , k e m u d ia n d iik u t i w ila y a h b u d a y a M a t a r a m a n T F R ( 2 . 1 0 ) d a n t e r a k h ir w ila y a h b u d a y a M a d u r a T F R ( 2 . 2 9 ) . D a r i a n a lis is S E M , d ik e t a h u i b a h w a f a k t o r e k o n o m i, fa k t o r s o s ia l, d a n fa k t o r b u d a y a s e r t a f a k t o r p e la k s a n a a n p r o g r a m K B , f a k t o r p e k e r ja a n P U S d a n f a k t o r p r o d u k t iv it a s ib u P U S b e r p e n g a r u h t e r h a d a p e f e k t iv it a s K B d a n t in g k a t d a r i f a k t o r - f a k t o r t e r s e b u t a k a n b e r d a m p a k a d a n y a k e n a ik a n t e r h a d a p e f e k t iv it a s d a n t in g k a t t e r t il it a s .

  M is a ln y a d e n g a n a d a n y a p e r b a ik a n e k o n o m i P U S b e r p e n g a r u h t e r h a d a p m e n in g k a tn y a ju m la h a n a k y a n g d ila h ir k a n , d a n s e b a lik n y a b ila t e r ja d i p e r b a ik a n e k o n o m i ju s t r u b e r d a m p a k m e n u r u n n y a t in g k a t f e r t ilit a s d e m ik ia n ju g a p e n g a r u h fa k t o r - f a k t o r la in ( s o s ia l, b u d a y a , p e la k s a n a a n K e lu a r g a B e r e n c a n a , e f e k t iv it a s K e lu a r g a B e r e n c a n a , p e k e r ja a n ib u s e r t a p r o d u k t iv it a s P U S ) . K u a t n y a p e n g a r u h d a r i m a s in g - m a s in g f a k t o r s a n g a t d ip e n g a r u h i o le h m a ju t id a k n y a p e m b a n g u n a n s o s ia l, e k o n o m i d a n b u d a y a / m o d e r n is a s i d i m a s in g - m a s in g w ila y a h . I . W ila y a h J a w a T im u r 1 . F a k t o r e k o n o m i-b e r p e n g a r u h p o s it if t e r h a d a p e f e k t iv it a s d a n t in g k a t f e r t ilit a s d e n g a n b e s a r a n a n g k a k o e f is ie n p a t h ( 6 . 8 5 4 ) d a n ( 7 . 5 9 5 ) . S e m a k in b e s a r a n g k a k o e f is ie n p a t h s e m a k in k u a t p e n g a r u h n y a t e r h a d a p e f e k t iv it a s d a n t in g k a t f e r t ilit a s . F a k t o r e k o n o m i p e n g a r u h n y a p a lin g k u a t d ib a n d in g f a k t o r s o s ia l d a n b u d a y a d e n g a n p e n g a r u h p o s it if t e r s e b u t b e r a r t i s e m a k in b a ik k o n d is i e k o n o m i P U S d i J a w a T im u r s e m a k in m e n g h a r a p k a n ju m la h a n a k id e a l m a u p u n a n a k y a n g d ila h ir k a n s e m a k in b e s a r . K o n d is i in i s e s u a i d e n g a n p e n d a p a t d a r i p a r a p e n y a ji t e o r i T r a n s is i D e m o g r a f i E a s t e r lin ( 1 9 7 5 ) , E k o n o m i F e r t ilit a s B e c k e r ( 1 9 6 0 ) , H o ff m a n W y a t t ( 1 9 6 0 ) , F r e e d m a n ( 1 9 7 5 ) d a n d a r i t e o r i E k o n o m i R u m a h T a n g g a C a ld w e ll ( 1 9 6 0 ) s e r t a b e b e r a p a h a s il p e n e lit ia n H u ll a n d H u ll ( 1 9 7 8 ) d a n S in g a r im b u n ( 1 9 7 6 ) . K o n d is i in i m e n g g a m b a r k a n k e a d a a n m a s y a r a k a t p a d a la h a p p r a -m o d e r n is a s i ( m a s y a r a k a t a g r a r is d i m a n a s e b a g ia n b e s a r p e n d u d u k n y a t e r g o lo n g m is k in , a n a k m a s ih d ia n g g a p s e b a g a i in v e s t a s i a t a u s e b a g a i f a k t o r p r o d u k s i) . 2 . F a k t o r S o s ia l- b e r p e n g a r u h n e g a t if t e r h a d a p e f e k t iv it a s K e lu a r g a B e r e n c a n a d a n t in g k a t f e r t ilis d e n g a n b e s a r a n a n g k a k o e f is ie n p a t h ( - 1 . 0 8 5 ) d a n ( - 1 . 2 0 2 ) . P e n g a r u h n e g a t if b e r a r t i s e m a k in b a lk t in g k a t s o s ia l ( p e n d id ik a n d a n p e k e r ja a n ) a n g g o t a m a s y a r a k a t s e m a k in m e n g h a r a p k a n ju m la h a n a k id e a l m a u p u n ju m la h a n a k y a n g d ila h ir k a n s e m a k in k e c il, k o n d is i in i d id u k u n g o le h t e a r i T r a n s is i D e m o g r a f i E a s t e r lin ( 1 9 7 5 ) , T e o r i E k o n o m i F e r t ilit a s H o f f m a n W y a t t ( 1 9 6 0 ) , K o n d is i in i m e n u n ju k k a n s e m a k in m a ju k e a d a a n s o s ia l m a s y a r a k a t m e n g a k ib a t k a n p e r u b a h a n p o la b e r f ik ir p e n d u d u k t e r h a d a p ju m la h a n a k y a n g d iin g in k a n y a it u p a d a ta h a p m o d e r n is a s i a w a l, ju m la h a n a k y a n g d iin g in k a n m a u p u n ju m la h a n a k y a n g d ila h ir k a n t e r u s m e n u r u n , 3 . P e n g a r u h f a k t o r b u d a y a b e r s if a t p o s it if d a n f ix t e r h a d a p e f e k t iv it a s p r o g r a m K e lu a r g a B e r e n c a n a d a n s ig n if ik a n t e r h a d a p t in g k a t f e r t ilit a s n a m u n p e n g a r u h n y a r e la t if le m a h d ib a n d in g d e n g a n p e n g a r u h f a k t o r s o s ia l m a u p u n f a k t o r e k o n o m i. M e n g in g a t p e n g a r u h n y a r e la t if le m a h b a ik t e r h a d a p e f e k t iv it a s m a u p u n t in g k a t f e r t ilit a s d i J a w a T im u r m e n a n d a k a n b a h w a p e r a n fa k t o r b u d a y a d a la m m e m p e n g a r u h i t in g k a t e f e k t iv it a s d a n f e r t il it a s s a n g a t s e d ik it ( 0 . 0 9 0 ) d a n ( 0 . 1 0 0 ) . H a l in i d a p a t d im a k lu m i b a h w a in d ik a t o r b u d a y a y a n g d ig u n a k a n u n t u k m e n g u k u r t in g k a t e f e k t iv it a s d a n f e r t ilit a s s a n g a t t e r b a t a s ( 9 in d ik a t o r ) y a n g r a t a - r a t a s e b a g ia n in d ik a t o r t e r s e b u t p a d a s a a t s e k a r a n g k u r a n g m e r u p a k a n b a g ia n d a r i k e h id u p a n m a s y a r a k a t ( s u d a h m e m b u d a y a ) in i s e s u a i d e n g a n p e n d a p a t K o t t a k ( 1 9 9 9 ) , a k ib a t m o d e r n is a s i t e r ja d i p e r u b a h a n - p e r u b a h a n t e r h a d a p p e r ila k u m a s y a r a k a t . 4 . F a k t o r P e la k s a n a a n K e lu a r g a B e r e n c a n a - F a k t o r in i b e r p e n g a r u h s e c a r a n e g a t if t e r h a d a p e f e k t iv it a s d a n t in g k a t f e r t ilit a s d e n g a n b e s a r a n a n g k a k o e f is ie n p a t h ( - 0 . 2 1 1 ) d a n ( - 0 . 2 3 4 ) in i b e r a r t i s e m a k in in t e n s if p e la k s a n a a n K e lu a r g a B e r e n c a n a s e m a k in s e d ik it t e r h a d a p ju m la h a n a k y a n g d iin g in k a n m a u p u n y a n g d ila h ir k a n . K o n d is i in i s e ja la n d e n g a n p e n d a p a t F r e e d m a n ( 1 9 8 3 ) t e n t a n g T e o r i P e n u r u n a n F e r t ilit a s - y a n g m e n y a t a k a n m o t iv a s i u n t u k f e r t ilit a s y a n g le b ih r e n d a h d ip e r o le h d a r i p e r s e p s i o r a n g t u a y a n g t u m b u h k a r e n a b e b e r a p a p e r u b a h a n k u a lit a s k e h id u p a n - in t in y a m e m ilik i a n a k y a n g le b ih s e d ik it le b ih m e n g u n t u n g k a n d ib a n d in g ju m la h a n a k y a n g le b ih b a n y a k . 5 . T in g k a t f e r t ilit a s b e r p e n g a r u h p o s it if t e r h a d a p p r o d u k t iv it a s P U S , d e n g a n b e s a r a n a n g k a k o e f is ie n p a th ( 7 . 7 2 7 ) , a r t in y a s e m a k in t in g g i t in g k a t f e r t ilit a s s e m a k in m e n g h a r a p k a n t in g k a t p r o d u k t iv it a s ib u m e n in g k a t, u n tu k m e n c u k u p i k e b u t u h a n k e lu a r g a . G a m b a r a n in i s e ja la n d e n g a n t e o r i t e n t a n g t e r ja d in y a p e m b e n t u k a n b u d a y a ( c u lt u r e p a t t e r n s ) a k ib a t a d a n y a m o d e r n is a s i p a d a b id a n g t e h n o lo g i. M is a ln y a b e r u b a h n y a p e r a n w a n it a a k ib a t a d a n y a p o la b a r u d a r i ib u r u n a h t a n g g a b e r u b a h s e b a g a i ib u k a r ir b e k e r ja d i lu a r r u m a h ( K o t t a k , 1 9 9 9 ) . 6 . F a k t o r

p e k e r ja a n ib u b e r p e n g a r u h p o s it if d a n la n g s u n g t e r h a d a p e f e k t iv it a s d e n g a n b e s a r a n a n g k a k o e f is ie n p a t h ( 2 . 6 3 0 ) , in i b e r a r t i ib u y a n g d a p a t b e k e r ja m e n g h a r a p k a n a n a k y a n g s e m a k in b a n y a k . F a k t o r p r o d u k t iv it a s ib u P U S - b e r p e n g a r u h n e g a t if t e r h a d a p e f e k t iv it a s d e n g a n b e s a r a n a n g k a k o e f is ie n p a th ( - 7 . 8 1 7 ) , in i b e r a r t i b a h w a s e m a k in t in g g i t in g k a t p r o d u k t iv it a s ib u s e m a k in m e n g h a r a p k a n ju m la h a n a k id e a l s e d ik it . I I. W ila y a h B u d a y a M a t a r a m a n , P e s is ir A r e k d a n M a d u r a . P e n g a r u h m a s in g - m a s in g f a k t o r y a n g b e r la k u d i J a w a T im u r t id a k s e m u a n y a b e r la k u s a m a d i m a s in g - m a s in g w ila y a h b u d a y a . P e n g a r u h m a s in g -m a s in g f a k t o r d a p a t d it e r im a d is u a t u w ila y a h d a n d it o la k d i w i la y a h la in . M a s in g - m a s in g f a k t o r t a d i a d a y a n g p e n g a r u h n y a b e r s if a t p o s it if d i s u a t u w ila y a h d a n d a p a t b e r s if a t n e g a t if d i w ila y a h la in t e r h a d a p fa k t o r y a n g s a m a . D a n h a s il a n a lis is d i 3 w ila y a h b u d a y a m e n u n ju k k a n a d a n y a k e s a m a a n b e r la k u n y a p e n g a r u h f a k t o r - f a k t o r t e r s e b u t p a d a w ila y a h b u d a y a M a t a r a m a n d a n M a d u r a d e n g a n w ila y a h J a w a T im u r s e c a r a m e n y e lu r u h , n a m u n u n t u k w ila y a h P e s is i r A r e k m e n u n ju k k a n c ir i- c ir i y a n g b e r b e d a d ib a n d in g k a n d e n g a n w ila y a h M a t a r a m a n d a n M a d u r a s e r t a w ila y a h J a w a T im u r . H a l in i d ik a r e n a k a n b a h w a w ila y a h b u d a y a P e s is ir A r e k m e r u p a k a n w ila y a h y a n g le b ih m a ju d ib a n d in g d e n g a n w ila y a h M a t a r a m a n d a n M a d u r a b a ik d a la m b id a n g p e m b a g u n a n e k o n o m i, s o s ia l, b u d a y a , m a u p u n p o lit ik , d a n w ila y a h in i s e c a r a h is t o r is s e ja k ja m a n M a ja p a h it s u d a h m e n ja d i p u s a t p e m e r in t a h a n , p e r d a g a n g a n , p e n d id ik a n b a h k a n b a g ia n p e s is ir u t a r a s u d a h m e r u p a k a n p in t u g e r b a n g in t e r n a s io n a l. m a s u k n y a b u d a y a d a r i lu a r ( T im u r T e n g a h / I s la m d a n B a r a t / m o d e r n ) k e w ila y a h J a w a T im u r le w a t u n t u k m a s in g - m a s in g w ila y a h b u d a y a , m a k a p e r lu d ik e m u k a k a n t e n t a n g b e s a r n y a p e n g a r u h m a s in g - m a s in g f a k t o r d i m a s in g - m a s in g w ila y a h b u d a y a s e b a g a i b e r ik u t : 1 . P e n g a r u h fa k t o r e k o n o m i u n tu k s e m u a w ila y a h b u d a y a b e r la k u n y a h a m p ir s a m a y a it u b e r s if a t p o s it if b a ik t e r h a d a p e f e k t iv it a s K B m a u p u n t e r h a d a p t in g k a t f e r t ilit a s , k e c u a li p a d a w ila y a h b u d a y a P e s is ir A r e k , p e n g a r u h f a k t o r e k o n o m i t e r h a d a p e f e k t iv it a s K e lu a r g a B e r e n c a n a b e r s if a t n e g a t if d e n g a n b e s a r a n a n g k a k o e f is ie n p a t h ( - 1 4 6 0 0 ) d a n p o s it if t e r h a d a p t in g k a t f e r t ilit a s d e n g a n b e s a r a n a n g k a k o e f is ie n p a th ( 1 9 6 . 1 5 1 ) . I n i b e r a r t i s e m a k in b a ik k o n d is i e k o n o m i m a s y a r a k a t m e n g h a r a p a k a n ju m la h a n a k id e a l s e m a k in b e s a r k e c u a li d i w ila y a h P e s is i r A r e k ju s t r u s e b a lik n y a , u n t u k t in g k a t f e r t ilit a s p e n g a r u h f a k t o r e k o n o m i b e r la k u s a m a d e n g a n w ila y a h la in ( p o s it if ) y a n g b e s a r n y a t id a k s a m a , in i b e r a r t i r a t a - r a t a m a s y a r a k a t J a w a T im u r a p a k a h d iw ila y a h b u d a y a M a t a r a m a n , P e s is ir A r e k d a n M a d u r a m e n u n ju k k a n b a h w a s e m a k in b a ik k o n d is i e k o n o m i s e m a k in m e n g h a r a p k a n ju m la h a n a k y a n g d ila h ir k a n le b ih b e s a r m e s k ip u n k e n y a t a a n n y a r a t a - r a t a T F R 2 . 1 5 . G a m b a r a n in i t id a k s e ja la n d e n g a n p e n d a p a t p a r a p e n y a ji T e o r i E k o n o m i F e r t ilit a s B e e k e r ( 1 9 6 0 ) , T r a n s is i D e m o g r a f i E a s t e r lin ( 1 9 7 7 ) , T e o r i E k o n o m i R u m a h T a n g g a N a r lo v e ( 1 9 7 4 ) d a n C a ld w e ll ( 1 9 7 8 ) . 2 . P e n g a r u h f a k t o r s o s ia l b e r la k u n y a u n t u k s e m u a w ila y a h b e r b e d a - b e d a , d i w ila y a h b u d a y a

  P e s is i r A r e k s a n g a t k u a t p e n g a r u h n y a d a n b e r s if a t p o s it if , d i w ila y a h M a t a r a m a n t id a k b e r p e n g a r u h s e d a n g d i w ila y a h M a d u r a b e r s if a t n e g a t if s e p e r t i y a n g b e r la k u d i w ila y a h J a w a T im u r ju g a b e r s if a t n e g a t if t e r h a d a p e f e k t iv it a s K e lu a r g a B e r e n c a n a d a n t in g k a t f e r t ilt a s . 3 . P e n g a r u h fa k t o r b u d a y a t e r h a d a p e f e k t iv it a s K e lu a r g a B e r e n c a n a d a n t in g k a t f e r t ilit a s d i w ila y a h P e s i s ir A r e k d it o la k ( t id a k m e m ilik i p e n g a r u h ) b a ik t e r h a d a p e f e k t if it a s m a u p u n t in g k a t f e r t ilit a s , s e d a n g d i w ila y a h M a ta r a m a n d a n M a d u r a b e r p e n g a r u h n e g a t if m e s k ip u n s if a t n y a le m a h , in i b e r a r t i b a h w a s e m a k in t in g g i t in g k a t b u d a y a m a s y a r a k a t n y a s e m a k in m e n g h a r a p k a n ju m la h a n a k y a n g d ila h ir k a n ( T F R ) s e m a k in k e c il s e s u a i d e n g a n p e n d a p a t K o t t a k ( 1 9 9 9 ) . L a in h a ln y a d i w ila y a h J a w a T im u r p e n g a r u h f a k t o r b u d a y a ju s t r u b e r s if a t p o s it if m e s k ip u n le m a h . W a la u p u n le m a h p e n g a r u h n y a t e r h a d a p e f e k t iv it a s p r o g r a m K e lu a r g a B e r e n c a n a d a n t in g k a t f e r t ilit a s d i w ila y a h M a t a r a m a n d a n M a d u r a , a k a n t e t a p i a d a p e r b e d a a n d e n g a n w il a y a h b u d a y a P e s is ir A r e k . D i P e s is i r A r e k f a k t o r b u d a y a t id a k b e r p e n g a r u h t e r h a d a p e f e k t iv it a s d a n f e r t ilit a s . H a l in i d ip e r k u a t h a s il u ji A N O V A , d i m a n a t e r d a p a t p e r b e d a a n y a n g n y a t a t e n t a n g n o r m a a n a k s e b a g a i k a r u n ia T u h a n , a n a k s u m b e r r e je k i d a n a n a k t e m p a t b e r lin d u n g p a d a h a r i t u a d i t ig a w ila y a h b u d a y a t e r s e b u t . 4 . P e n g a r u h f a k t o r p e la k s a n a a n K e lu a r g a B e r e n c a n a - p e la k s a n a a n K e lu a r g a B e r e n c a n a m e m p u n y a i p e n g a r u h n e g a t iv e u n t u k s e m u a w ila y a h b u d a y a d i J a w a T im u r k e c u a li P e s is ir A r e k , in i b e r a r t i b a h w a s e m a k in in t e n s if p e la y a n a n K e lu a r g a B e r e n c a n a , s e m a k in s e d ik it ju m la h a n a k y a n g d iin g in k a n d a n s e m a k in s e d ik it p u la ju m la h a n a k y a n g d ila h ir k a n . G a m b a r a n in i s e s u a i d e n g a n T e o n K e lu a r g a B e r e n c a n a t e r h a d a p e f e k t iv it a s d a n t in g k a t f e r t ilit a s d it o la k ( t id a k b e r p e n g a r u h ) . 5 . P e n g a r u h t in g k a t f e r t ilit a s d i s e m u a w ila y a h b u d a y a b e r s if a t p o s it if t e r h a d a p p r o d u k t iv it a s ib u P U S , in i m e n u n ju k k a n b a h w a s e m a k in b e s a r ju m la h a n a k , s e o r a n g ib u P U S h a r u s b e r u s a h a m e n in g k a t k a n p r o d u k t iv it a s k e r ja n y a g u n a m e m e n u h i k e b u t u h a n k e lu a r g a . D i w ila y a h b u d a y a M a d u r a f e r t ilit a s s e c a r a e k s p lis it t id a k b e r p e n g a r u h n y a t a t e r h a d a p t in g k a t p e k e r ja a n ib u P U S / d it o la k . S e d a n g k a n d i M a t a r a m a n d a n P e s is ir A r e k , f e r t ilit a s b e r p e n g a r u h p o s it if t e r h a d a p t in g k a t p e k e r ja a n ib u P U S . H a l in i m e n g in d ik a s ik a n b a h w a s e m a k in b a n y a k a n a k y a n g d im ilik i m e n u n tu t s e o r a n g ib u u n t u k b e k e r ja , g u n a m e n a m b a h p e n g h a s ila n u n tu k m e n c u k u p i k e b u t u h a n k e lu a r g a . 6 . P e n g a r u h p e k e r ja a n ib u P U S t e r h a d a p t in g k a t e f e k t iv it a s b e r s if a t p o s it if , k e c u a li d i w ila y a h P e s is ir A r e k t id a k a d a p e n g a r u h n y a . F a k t o r p r o d u k t iv it a s ib u P U S b e r p e n g a r u h n e g a t if t e r h a d a p e f e k t iv it a s K e lu a r g a B e r e n c a n a d i w ila y a h M a t a r a m a n ( - 4 0 9 8 ) d a n w ila y a h M a d u r a ( - 2 . 4 1 5 ) , in i b e r a r t i s e m a k in t in g g i t in g k a t p r o d u k t iv it a s ib u P U S t n e n g h a r a p k a n ju m la h a n a k id e a l s e m a k in k e c il. S e c a r a k e s e lu r u h a n d i w ila y a h Ja w a T im u r f a k t o r p r o d u k t iv it a s ib u P U S b e r p e n g a r u h n e g a t if ju g a ( - 7 . 8 1 7 ) t e r h a d a p e f e k t iv it a s . K e c u a li d i w ila y a h P e s is ir A r e k p e n g a r u h f a k t o r p r o d u k t iv it a s ib u P U S t e r h a d a p e f e k t iv it a s d it o la k / t id a k b e r p e n g a r u h .