Athena Scientific, Belmont, Massachusetts

Introduction to Probability

SECOND EDITION Dimitri P. Bertsekas and John N. Tsitsiklis

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

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Athena Scientific, Belmont, Massachusetts

Markov Chains

Contents

7. 1 . Discrete-Time Markov Chains

p. 340

7.2. Classification of States . . . .

p. 346

7.3. Steady-State Behavior . . . .

p. 352

7.4. Absorption Probabilities and Expected Time to Absorption · p. 362

7.5. Continuous-Time Markov Chains

p. 369

p. 378 Problems . . . . . . . . . . .

7.6. Summary and Discussion

p. 380

340 Markov Chains Chap. 7 The Bernoulli and Poisson processes studied in the preceding chapter are memo­

ryless, in the sense that the future does not depend on the past : the occurrences of new �:successes" or ':arrivals" do not depend on the past history of the process. In this chapter, we consider processes where the future depends on and can be predicted to some extent by what has happened in the past.

We emphasize models where the effect of the past on the future is sum­ marized by a state. which changes over time according to given probabilities. We restrict ourselves to models in which the state can only take a finite number values and can change according to probabilities that do not depend on the time of the change. We want to analyze the probabilistic properties of the sequence of state values.

The range of applications of the type of models described in this chapter is truly vast. It includes just about any dynamical system whose evolution over time involves uncertainty, provided the state of the system is suitably defined. Such systems arise in a broad variety of fields, such as. for example. commu­ nications. automatic control, signal processing. manufacturing, economics. and

operations research.

DISCRETE-TIME MARKOV CHAINS We will first consider discrete-time Markov chains, in which the state changes

at certain discrete time instants, indexed by an integer variable n. At each time step n, the state of the chain is denoted by Xn . and belongs to a finite set S of

possible states, called the state space. Without loss of generality, and unless there is a statement to the contrary. we will assume that S = { I, . . . . m } , for some

positive integer m. The Markov chain is described in terms of its transition probabilities Pij : whenever the state happens to be i, there is probability Pij that the next state is equal to j. :Mathematically.

Pij = P(Xn+l

= j I Xn i). i. j

E S.

The key assumption underlying Markov chains is that the transition probabilities Pij apply whenever state i is visited, no matter what happened in the past, and

no matter how state i was reached. J\lathematically, we assume the Markov property, which requires that

P(Xn+l = j I Xn = i. Xn- 1 = in- I . . . . . Xo = io ) = P(Xn+ l = j I Xn = i)

= Pi) .

for all times n, all states i. j E S. and all possible sequences io . .. . , in- 1 of earlier states. Thus. the probability law of the next state Xn+1 depends on the past only through the value of the present state Xn .

The transition probabilities Pij must be of course nonnegative, and sum to one:

Pij = 1,

for all i.

Sec.

Discrete-Time Markov Chains 341

We will generally allow the probabilities Pii to be positive, in which case it is possible for the next state to be the same as the current one. Even though the

state does not change, we still view this as a state transition of a special type (a "self-transition" ) .

Specification of Markov Models

A Markov chain model is specified by identifying: (a) the set of states S = {I, . . .

, m},

(b) the set of possible transitions, namely, those pairs (i, j) for which

Pij > 0, and, (c) the numerical values of those Pij that are positive.

The Markov chain specified by this model is a sequence of random variables XO, X1 , X2, . .. , that take values in S, and which satisfy

P(Xn+1 = j I Xn = i, Xn-l = in-I , . . . , Xo = io) = Pij , for all times n, all states i, j E S, and all possible sequences io, .. . , in- l

of earlier states.

All of the elements of a Markov chain model can be encoded in a transition probability matrix, which is simply a two-dimensional array whose element at the ith row and jth column is Pij :

Pl l Pl2

Plm

P21 P22

P2m

Pml pm2

Pmm

It is also helpful to lay out the model in the so-called transition probability graph, whose nodes are the states and whose arcs are the possible transitions. By recording the numerical values of Pij near the corresponding arcs, one can visualize the entire model in a way that can make some of its major properties readily apparent.

Example 7.1 . Alice is taking a probability class and in each week, she can be either up-to-date or she may have fallen behind. If she is up-to-date in a given week, the probability that she will be up-to-date (or behind) in the next week is

0.8 (or 0.2, respectively) . If she is behind in the given week, the probability that she will be up-to-date (or behind) in the next week is

0.6 (or 0.4, respectively) . We assume that these probabilities do not depend on whether she was up-to-date or behind in previous weeks, so the problem has the typical Markov chain character (the future depends on the past only through the present) .

Pi l = 0.8. P12 =

P21 =

P22 = 0.4,

probability

is

[�:� 0.4] '

grap h is show n in

The transition

in

a line i n u nit

7.2. A fl y moves along

increments. At

t ime p e r i od , it m o v e s one unit to the left with p r o babi H t y

0.3, one unit to the right with probability 0.3, a n d stays i n p lace with probabiHty

i nd ep end e nt the

movements.

spiders are at

positions 1 and m: if it is captured by a and the terminates. We want to construct a Markov chain model, assuming that the fly starts in a position between 1

m.

with positions of the fly. The nonzero transition probabilities are

us

states 1 , 2 , .. . ,m,

Pu ::::::: 1,

pmm ::::::: I,

if j = i - l or j = i

for i ::::::: 2, .. . ,m - Pi] ::::::: 0.4, 1.

if j = i,

matrix are

in

7.2: The t ransi tion probability

and the transi tion

ma-

7.2, for the case where m = 4.

two states: State 1:

with

2: Machine is

is

in

[ 1-b b

1 'r

broken

7. 3: 1tansition

for

e.

i 1 , 2, , ,

7.4: Tr a ns i t i on probabi lity graph for t he second part of Exam ple 7.3. A

m ac h ine that has re m aine d broken for e = 4 days is replaced by a new, working

machine.

we have = io, Xl = il , ... I

models. In

To verify t his property, note that P(Xo = io ,

= il } ... � Xn == )

io, · . . I Xn- 1 == in - l

1 == in- l ) ,

apply same argument to the term P(Xo ==

- 1 ) and continue similarly, we eventually

the

state Xo is

p (X 1 == i 1, ...• X n == IX 0 == io ) ==

a state sequence can be identified with a sequence of arcs in the transition probability

Graphically,

and the

such a

the

arcs traversed by the

P ( Xo = 2� Xl = 2. = 2,

= 3, X4 = =

is no conditioning on a fixed initial state. we need to specify a probability law for the

to

a of

initial state Xo.

Sec. 7. 1 Discrete-Time Markov Chains 345 n-Step Transition Probabilities Many Markov chain problems require the calculation of the probability law of

the state at some future time, conditioned on the current state. This probability law is captured by the n-step transition probabilities, defined by

Tij (n) = P (Xn j I Xo = i).

In words, Tij (n) is the probability that the state after n time periods will be j, given that the current state is i. It can be calculated using the following basic recursion, known as the Chapman-Kolmogorov equation.

Chapman-Kolmogorov Equation for the n-Step Transition Probabilities

The n-step transition probabilities can be generated. by the recursive formula

T i j ( n) = L Ti k(n - I)Pkj , for n > 1, and all i, j,

k=l

starting with

To verify the formula, we apply the total probability theorem as follows:

m.

P ( Xn = j I Xo = i) = L P(Xn-l = k I Xo = i) P (Xn = j I Xn- 1 = k, Xo = i)

k=l

m.

= L Tik(n - I)Pkj ;

k=l

see Fig. 7.5 for an illustration. We have used here the Markov property: once we condition on Xn- l = k, the conditioning on Xo = i does not affect the probability Pkj of reaching j at the next step.

We can view Tij (n) as the element at the ith row and jth column of a two­ dimensional array, called the n-step transition probability matrix. t Fig­

ures 7.6 and 7.7 give the n-step transition probabilities Tij (n) for the cases of

t Those readers familiar with matrix multiplication, may recognize that the Chapman-Kolmogorov equation can be expressed as follows: the matrix of n-step tran­ sition probabilities TtJ (n) is obtained by multiplying the matrix of (n - I)-step tran­

sition probabilities T ik (n -1), with the one-step transition probability matrix. Thus, the n-step transition probability matrix is the nth power of the transition probability matrix.

Chap. 7

7.5: Deriva.tion of the probability at state j at time n is the sum of the

T,k (n - l )Pkj of the different ways of

j.

7.6, we see this l imit does not depend on ity of being

Furthermore, the probability rij (n)

initial state i

is

but over time this

(but by no means all)

7.7, we see a qualitatively different behavior: (n)

zero for states. Here, we

on the initial

can

sense that they are infinitely once

that are "absorbing,"

are

states 1 4 to

capture of the fly by one of the two spiders. Given enough time: it is certain that some absorbing state will

Accordingly:

probability of being at the

we start to that These examples

are this is the subject of the

CLASSIFICATION

STATES

states particular 1

7.6: n-step transition probabi lities for the "up-to-date/behind" Exam-

ple 7. 1 . Observe that as n (n) converges to a limit that does not depend on the initial state i.

some

t o b e visited again, while some

once, are

not be the case. In this section, we focus on the which this occurs .

we wish to cl as sify

are As a

of a Markov chain with a focus o n t h e freq uency with which

a us

that a state j is

from a state i if for some

the n-step transition

probabi li ty Tij (n)

j, starting from i, a ft er some

, if

is positive p r obability of

of time periods. An

definition is

t hat

is a possible

1-, 1 1 1 . . . ,

h j,

starts at i

(i, id , (il ,

, in-l ), (in- l , j)

Let A( i)

be the set of

are accessible from i. We

if for

j that is

belong to A(i) we

to A(j).

i, we can only visit states j E

i and, given enough

to an infinite number

i r a is

it is

end-of-chapter problems for a more

times.

version of

argument . )

is

if i t is not recurrent . Thus, a st a te i is transient

n-step transit ion probabilities

7.2. These are the

of reach-

probabilit ies converge to a limit, hut the l i m i t

from state i. We observe t hat

on the

state. In this

note t hat the

Ti 2 (n) and Tz3 (n) of

2 or 3\ go to zero! as n i ncreases .

if

is a state j E AU)

t h a ti is

from j.

state i . there is positive that the state enters such a j . Given enough

this win happen, and

i cannot be

after that . Thus, a transient

state will only be visited a finite number

see

the

or r e c u r r e n ce is

arcs of t ran-

[ t h ose p a i r s (i,

w h i c h Pij > 0] a n d not

the

7.8 provides an e x a m p l e of a transition prob-

a recurrent state, the set

are

i) are all from

form a (or simply

that states in A (

no state

A ( i ) is

from t h em .

lvlathematically, for a recurrent state i, we have A ( i ) = A (j ) for all j that belong

to A( i) ! as can

In of

seen from

recurrence.

7.8, s t a t es 3 a class, and s t a t e 1 it self also forms a

I t can be seen

at

one recurrent state must be

from

7. 2

of

7.8: Classification of states given the t ransition probabi lity

S tart-

from s t a t e I, the

a c c es s i b l e state is itself. and so 1 is a recu rrent state.

States 1 . 3, and 4 are accessible from

2. but 2 is not accessihle from an:v' of t h e m ,

are both recurrent .

so state 2 i s transient . States 3 and 4 are accessible from each other . and

gIven probleIn . It follow::; that

must exist at

one recurrent

at

one elM!:).

the fonowing conclusion.

• A Markov can be decomposed into one or more recurrent classes, possibly some

states.

1S •

recurrent state is

states

is not

from a state.

possibly

recurrent states are

7.9 � , I arkov

provides a powerful concept ual tool for reasoning about I\.farkov chains

of

Hnmber of times:

For the purpose of

it is iIn- to analyze chains that consist of a

behavior of

recurrent class. For the

it is

to

par t icul a r class o f recu rr e n t states is entered

g ive n transient state. These two issues.

focus of Sections

into recurrent classes and transient states.

of l\·farkov chain

if k = 1. .... d 1. if 1-

if k =

is

Figure 7. 10: Structure of a periodic recurrent class. I n t his example . d = 3.

w e nl ov e throug h the sequence in order,

Thus. in a periodic recurrent

d in the same su b s e t . As an example,

recurrent

7.9 1 2) is the same is true of the class

third chain of Fig. All ot her

The

reason is that

from i.

n.

a way to verify aperiodicity of a recurrent

whether

there a special

i E R from which all s t at es in R can

1 and a special

consider the first chain in

(n) > 0 for an j E

an

from state II every state is possi ble at time

n = 3, SO

u ni q ue recurrent

of t ha t

is

A converse turns out to be true: if

a re c u rre n t n such Tij (n) > 0 for

'l

R.

be gro u p e d in d 1

to ( or to S 1 if k = d). • Th e class is

from

if and only if

t h at

352 Markov Chains Chap. 7

7.3 STEADY-STATE BEHAVIOR In Markov chain models, we are often interested in long-term state occupancy

behavior, that is, in the n-step transition probabilities Tij (n) when n is very large. We have seen in the example of Fig. 7.6 that the Tij (n) may converge to steady-state values that are independent of the initial state. We wish to understand the extent to which this behavior is typical.

If there are two or more classes of recurrent states, it is clear that the limiting values of the Tij (n) must depend on the initial state ( the possibility of visiting j far into the future depends on whether j is in the same class as the initial state i). We will, therefore, restrict attention to chains involving a single

recurrent class, plus possibly some transient states. This is not as restrictive as it may seem, since we know that once the state enters a particular recurrent

class, it will stay within that class. Thus, the asymptotic behavior of a multiclass chain can be understood in terms of the asymptotic behavior of a single-class

chain. Even for chains with a single recurrent class, the Tij (n) may fail to converge. To see this, consider a recurrent class with two states, 1 and 2, such that from state 1 we can only go to 2, and from 2 we can only go to 1 (P12 = P21 = 1 ). Then, starting at some state, we will be in that same state after any even number of transitions, and in the other state after any odd number of transitions. Formally,

1 n even,

Tii (n) =

n odd.

What is happening here is that the recurrent class is periodic, and for such a class, it can be seen that the Tij ( n ) generically oscillate.

We now assert that for every state j, the probability Tij (n) of being at state j approaches a limiting value that is independent of the initial state i, provided

we exclude the two situations discussed above ( multiple recurrent classes and / or

a periodic class ) . This limiting value, denoted by 7r j , has the interpretation

7rj � P(Xn = j),

when n is large,

and is called the steady-state probability of j. The following is an important theorem. Its proof is quite complicated and is outlined together with several other proofs in the end-of-chapter problems.

Steady-State Convergence Theorem Consider a Markov chain with a single recurrent class, which is aper i od ic .

Then, the states j are associated with steady-state probabilities 7rj that have the following properties.

Sec. 7.3 Steady-State Behavior 353

(a) For each j, we have

n-oo lim Tij (n) = 1r'j ,

for all i.

(b) The 1r'j are the unique solution to the system of equations below:

1C'j =

1r'kPkj ,

j = 1, ... , m,

k=l

1 = L 1l'k.

k=l

(c) We have

1l'j = 0,

for all transient states j ,

1r'j > 0,

for al l recurrent states j.

The steady-state probabilities 1l'j sum to 1 and form a probability distri­ bution on the state space, called the stationary distribution of the chain. The reason for the qualification "stationary" is that if the initial state is chosen according to this distribution, i.e.! if

P(Xo = j) 1l'j . j = 1, . .. , m,

then, using the total probability theorem, we have

P(XI = j) L P(Xo = k)Pkj = L 1l'kPkj = 1l'j ,

k=l

k=l

where the last equality follows from part (b) of the steady-state convergence

theorem. Similarly, we obtain P(Xn j) = 1l'j , for all n and j . Thus, if the

initial state is chosen according to the stationary distribution, the state at any future time will have the same distribution.

The equations

1l'j L 1l'kPkj , j = 1, ... , m,

k=l

are called the balance equations. They are a simple consequence of part (a) of the theorem and the Chapman-Kolmogorov equation. Indeed, once the con­ vergence of Tij (n) to some 1l' j is taken for granted, we can consider the equation,

L Tik(n - I)Pkj , k=l

Tij (n) =

354 Markov Chains Chap. 7

take the limit of both sides as n --+ 00, and recover the balance equations. t Together with the normalization equation

L 7r k = 1, k=l

the balance equations can be solved to obtain the 7rj . The following examples illustrate the solution process.

Example 7.5. Consider a two-state Markov chain with transition probabilities

PI I = 0.8,

PI2 = 0.2,

P21 = 0.6, P22 = 0.4.

(This is the same as the chain of Example 7. 1 and Fig. 7.1.) The balance equations take the form

7r2 = 7rl P12 + 7r2P22 ,

or

7rl = 0.8 . 7rl + 0.6 . 7r2, 7r2 = 0.2 . 7rl + 0.4 · 7r2 .

Note that the above two equations are dependent, since they are both equivalent to

This is a generic property, and in fact it can be shown that any one of the balance equations can always be derived from the remaining equations. However, we also know that the 7rj satisfy the normalization equation

7rl + 7r2 = 1,

which supplements the balance equations and suffices to determine the 7rj uniquely.

Indeed, by substituting the equation 7rl = 37r2 into the equation 7rl + 7r2 = 1 , we obtain 37r2 + 7r2 = 1 , or

7r2 = 0.25,

which using the equation 7rt + 7r2 = 1 , yields

7rl = 0.75.

This is consistent with what we found earlier by iterating the Chapman-Kolmogorov

equation (cf. Fig. 7.6). t According to a famous and important theorem from linear algebra (called the

Perron-Frob en ius theorem) , the balance equations always have a nonnegative solution, for any Markov chain. What is special about a chain that has a single recurrent class, which is aperiodic, is that given also the normalization equation, the solution is unique and is equal to the limit of the n-step transition probabilities Tij (n) .

wet states:

0 < p < 1)

so

are

1f) = (1

+ p1r2 , 1f2 = 1fo + ptrl .

1fo

1f t

= -- ,

7r2 = -- .

3-p

3-p

Door .J

7,,12: Transition

for the case of m = 5 d o o rs .

in

to see t hat an initial

that 0 < p < 11 it is n ot

every state j can be reached in and t herefore the

on some m states:

i,

i = 1, . . . , m.

is

7. case

I-p

p1f'i- l + (1

7T Tn. =

+ p1f'Tn. 1.

once we

Sec. 7.3 Steady-State Behavior 357 should have the same steady-state probability. This suggests the solution

j = 1, . . . , m.

Indeed, we see that these 'Trj satisfy the balance equations as well as the normal­ ization equation, so they must be the desired steady-state probabilities (by the uniqueness part of the steady-state convergence theorem) .

Note that i f either p = 0 or p = 1 , the chain still has a single recurrent class but is periodic. In this case, the n-step transition probabilities Tij (n) do not converge to a limit, because the doors are used in a cyclic order. Similarly, if m is even, the recurrent class of the chain is periodic, since the states can be grouped into two subsets, the even and the odd numbered states, such that from each subset one can only go to the other subset.

Long-Term Frequency Interpretations Probabilities are often interpreted as relative frequencies in an infinitely long

string of independent trials. The steady-state probabilities of a Markov chain admit a similar interpretation, despite the absence of independence.

Consider, for example, a Markov chain involving a machine, which at the end of any day can be in one of two states, working or broken down. Each time it breaks down, it is immediately repaired at a cost of $ 1 . How are we to model the long-term expected cost of repair per day? One possibility is to view it as the expected value of the repair cost on a randomly chosen day far into the future; this is just the steady-state probability of the broken down state. Alternatively, we can calculate the total expected repair cost in days, where is very large,

n.

and divide it by Intuition suggests that these two methods of calculation

should give the same result. Theory supports this intuition, and in general we have the following interpretation of steady-state probabilities (a justification is given in the end-of-chapter problems) .

Steady-State Probabilities as Expected State Frequencies

For a Markov chain with a single class which is aperiodic, the steady-state probabilities 7r j satisfy

1. 7rj = 1m Vij(n) ,

n--+oo

Vij

where (n) is the expected value of the number of visits to state j within

the first n transitions, starting from state i. Based on this interpretation, trj is the long-term expected fraction of time

that the state is equal to j. Each time that state j is visited, there is probability Pjk that the next transition takes us to state k. We conclude that 7rjpjk can

Chap. 7

move the from j

be as the long-term

fraction of transitions

Expected

of a Particu1ar Transition

with a single class which is

(n)

k.

n - oo lim

the frequency interpretation of 7r j equation

k= l

has an intuitive meaning. It expresses the fact that the expected frequency 7fj of

to j

sum the

1rkPkj of

In a very

of the balance

in terms of

nu mber of transitions, we expect a fraction 1TkPkj that bring t he state

from k to j. (This also

to transitions from j to

which occur with

.) The sum of the expected

of such transitions is the

of

at state j.

t I n fact , some stronger statements are also true, such as the following. Whenever we carry out a probabilistic experiment and

a trajectory of the Markov chain state j is

t he observed long-term

transitions Even though the trajectory is random,

which

a intro- duces some generic notation for the transition probab i l i t ie s . In particular,

l=i+ll ( "birth" pr ob a b i l i t y at

i) , l=i-ll

( probability at

i) .

7.14: Transition probability graph for a birth-death process.

1 can occur. Therefore, the

'i. to i

is 1ribi , to the expected frequency of transitions

from i i 1,

i + 1 to i, which is to

i == 0, . 1, . . ,m - 1.

Using the local ba] ance eq u at i ons , we

1, . . . , m.

from which , using

the normalization

probabilities tri are

computed.

t A more formal

at state 0 is 7To( 1 - bo) + 7TI d1 = 11"0 , which

as follows. The balance

= 7T}

11"1 . the local balance equation 11"obo == 11"1 d1 at the previous

is 11"obo + 11"1 ( 1 - - dJ ) +

this is rewritten as

+ 7Tl (1 - bi - ) +

7Tl , which simplifies to 7TIbl ==

We can then

at

states.

1 - b.

1\ 2\ . . . ,m, b u t if

i nstantly reftected back to p os i ti on 1 (or position m, respectively) . Equivalently, we may assume that when the person is in

will stay in t hat position

1 -b

b,

chain model whose states are the p os i t io ns I! ... ! m. The t r a nsi t io n probability

of the chain is give n in

7.8. The local balance equations are

7.15: Transition probability

for the random walk

. . i = l. . ,m-l.

1ri + l

p1r"

b p= I-b'

we can express

"ITj i n t e r m s

i = 1. .. . . m.

1rl ·

using the

I = 11"1 + . . . + 11" TTI. ' we

1 m-l

11' 1

( 1+ P +... + P

leads to

if P = 1 are equally likely) ,

then transmitted. The storage capacity of if m packets are already present,

in a buffer

newly

at most one e v e nt can

i n the node ( an arrival of a new i n the node ( an arrival of a new

we assume

at

( a) one new

a b > 0;

(b) one

o otherwise;

( c ) no new

no

happens with probability 1 -b-d if

an d with probability 1 b ot herwise.

We introduce a rvlarkov

with states 0, 1. .. . , m, corresponding to the

of

in the buffer. The

graph is in

The local balance equations are

0, 1 , ... , TIn

b p= ; 1'

and obt ai n 11"i+ 1 = P11"i , w h i c h leads to i = O, I , .. . ! m.

1 = 7ro + 7rl +'.. + 1i"m , we

- if p t- 1 ,

and

{ if p = 1. m+ I'

7ro =

Using the equation 1T'i = pl 7rO , t h e probabilities are

if P t- 1,

i = 0, 1, . . . : m.

362 Markov Chajns Chap. 7

It is interesting to consider what happens when the buffer size m is so large that it can be considered as practically infinite. We distinguish two cases.

( a ) Suppose that b < d, or p < 1. In this case, arrivals of new packets are less likely than departures of existing packets. This prevents the number of packets in the buffer from growing, and the steady-state probabilities 1i'i decrease with i, as in a ( truncated ) geometric PMF. We observe that as

we have 1 - pm+ l -t 1, and

m -t 00 ,

for all i.

We can view these as the steady-state probabilities in a system with an infinite buffer. [ As a check, note that we have 2::'0 pi( l - p) = 1 .]

p> d, or 1. In this case, arrivals of new packets are more likely than departures of existing packets. The number of packets in the buffer

( b ) Suppose that b >

tends to increase, and the steady-state probabilities 1i'i increase with i. As we consider larger and larger buffer sizes m, the steady-state probability of any

fixed state i decreases to zero:

for all i.

Were we to consider a system with an infinite buffer, we would have a Markov chain with a countably infinite number of states. Although we do not have the machinery to study such chains, the preceding calculation suggests that every state will have zero steady-state probability and will be "transient." The number of packets in queue will generally grow to infinity, and any particular state will be visited only a finite number of times.

The preceding analysis provides a glimpse into the character of Markov chains with an infinite number of states. In such chains, even if there is a single and aperiodic recurrent class, the chain may never reach steady-state and a steady­

state distribution may not exist.

7.4 ABSORPTION PROBABILITIES AND EXPECTED TIME TO ABSORPTION

In this section, we study the short-term behavior of Markov chains. We first consider the case where the Markov chain starts at a transient state. We are interested in the first recurrent state to be entered, as well as in the time until this happens.

When addressing such questions, the subsequent behavior of the Markov chain (after a recurrent state is encountered) is immaterial. We can therefore focus on the case where every recurrent state k is absorbing, Le. ,

Pkk = 1,

Pkj = 0 for all j i= k .

I f there is a unique absorbing state k, its steady-state probability is 1 (because all other states are transient and have zero steady-state probability), and will be

Sec. 7.4

Absorption Probabilities and Expected Time to Absorption

363

reached with probability 1, starting from any initial state. If there are multiple absorbing states, the probability that one of them will be eventually reached is still 1, but the identity of the absorbing state to be entered is random and the associated probabilities may depend on the starting state. In the sequel, we fix a particular absorbing state, denoted by s, and consider the absorption probability

ai that s is eventually reached, starting from i: eventually becomes equal to the absorbing state s I i).

ai = P(Xn Xo =

Absorption probabilities can be obtained by solving a system of linear equations, as indicated below.

Absorption Probability Equations

Consider a Markov chain where each state is either transient or absorb­ ing, and fix a particular absorbing state s. Then, the probabilities ai of

eventually reaching state s, starting from i, are the unique solution to the equations

for all absorbing i 1= s,

ai = L Pijaj ,

for all transient i.

j=1

1, and ai = 0, for all absorbing i 1= s, are evident from the definitions. To verify the remaining equations, we argue as follows. Let us consider a transient state i and let

The equations as =

be the event that state s is eventually

reached. We have

ai = P (A I X m =

0 i)

( total probability thm. = L P(A )

Xo = Xl = j)P(Xl = j I Xo =

l ( Markov property = LP(A IXI = j)Pij )

I i,

i)

j=l m

= L ajPij.

j=l The uniqueness property of the solution to the absorption probability equations

requires a separate argument, which is given in the end-of-chapter problems. The next example illustrates how we can use the preceding method to calculate the probability of entering a given recurrent class ( rather than a given absorbing state ) .

7. 1 7: ( a) Transition probabil i ty graph i n Exam ple 7 . 1 0 . ( b) A new graph in wh ich states 4 an d 5 have been lumped i nto t he absorbing state 6.

state

6, starting from t he t ra n si e nt

states 2

+ OAa3 + O. +

the facts a l = 0 and a6 = 1 , we

This is a system of two equations in the two unknowns a2 and a3 . which can be

readily solved to yield a2 =

a3 = 29/3 1 .

1 A $1 at round.

probability P, and

Different rounds are assumed Different rounds are assumed

Expected

the gambler's = m

corre s pond to An s ta t e s are

absorbi ng. Thus, the problem amounts to find i ng at each one of these two absorbing states. Of course, these absorption probabilities

1. 1 8 : Transition probability graph for t he gambler's ruin problem 7. 1 1). Here m = 4.

Let us s e t s = m i n which case the ab s orp t ion probability Q1 is th e probability

state i.

satisfy

ao = 0,

at =

(1 - p)ai-l + pai+l ,

i=l, . . )m-l,

am = 1.

These equat ions can be solved in a variety of ways. It turns out t here is an elegant

i=l, . .. ,m-l. Then, by denoting

the equations are

as

i=l,... ,m-l.

from which we obtain

i=l, . .. ,m-l.

366 Markov Chains Chap. 7

This, together with the equation 80 + 81 + . . . + 8m-1 = am - ao = 1, implies that

(1 + P + . . . + pm -I )80 = 1,

and

80 = 1 + P +...+

Since ao = 0 and ai+l = ai + 8i , the probability ai of winning starting from a fortune i is equal to

ai = 80 + 81 + . . . + 8i-1 = (1 + p + . . . + pi- l )80

1 + + P . .. +p i-I

1 + P + . . . + pm-I '

which simplifies to

{ 1 at m' = . -p

1-/ if P i= 1 ,

m -,

if P= 1.

The solution reveals that i f p > 1, which corresponds to p < 1 /2 and unfa­

vorable odds for the gambler, the probability of winning approaches 0 as m -+ 00 , for any fixed initial fortune. This suggests that if you aim for a large profit under unfavorable odds, financial ruin is almost certain.

Expected Time to Absorption We now turn our attention to the expected number of steps until a recurrent

state is entered (an event that we refer to as "absorption" ) , starting from a particular transient state. For any state i, we denote

J.Li = E[ number of transi tions until absorption, starting from i] = E[ min{n > 0 I Xn is recurrent} I Xo = i] .

Note that if i is recurrent, then J.Li = 0 according to this definition.

We can derive equations for the J.Li by using the total expectation theorem. We argue that the time to absorption starting from a transient state i is equal to

1 plus the expected time to absorption starting from the next state, which is j with probability Pij. We then obtain a system of linear equations, stated below, which is known to have a unique solution (see Problem 33 for the main idea).

J.L l , •.. , J.Lm , are

uniq ue solution to

the equations

for a l l transient states i.

This corresponds to the Ivlarkov chain shown in Fig. 7.

The states

to possible

positions,

the absorbing states 1 and m correspond

J..L2 =

J..L3 = 1 +

we can second equation and solve for J13 . We obtain J..L3 =

1 0/3 and by substitution again . J..L2 = 10/3.

Transition

in Example 7. 12.

The to

can

to calculate the expected time to reach a

state. starting

368 Markov Chains Chap. 7

from any other state. For simplicity, we consider a Markov chain with a single recurrent class. We focus on a special recurrent state s, and we denote by ti the mean first passage time from state i to state s, defined by

ti = E [ number of transitions to reach s for the first time, starting from i]

= E [ min {n > 0 I X n = s } I X 0 = i] .

The transitions out of state s are irrelevant to the calculation of the mean first passage times. We may thus consider a new Markov chain which is identical to the original, except that the special state s is converted into an absorbing

state (by setting pss = 1 , and P s j = 0 for all j f:. s ) . With this transformation, all states other than s become transient. We then compute ti as the expected number of steps to absorption starting from i, using the formulas given earlier in this section. We have

ti = 1 + L Pijtj ,

for all i f:. s,

j=1 ts = o.

This system of linear equations can be solved for the unknowns ti , and has a unique solution (see the end-of-chapter problems).

The above equations give the expected time to reach the special state s starting from any other state. We may also want to calculate the mean recur­ rence time of the special state s, which is defined as

t; = E[number of transitions up to the first return to s, starting from s ]

= E min {n � 1 I X n = s } I Xo = s ] .

We can obtain t; , once we have the first passage times ti , by using the equation

t; = 1 + L P Sjt j.

j=1

To justify this equation, we argue that the time to return to s, starting from s, is equal to 1 plus the expected time to reach s from the next state, which is j

with probability Psj . We then apply the total expectation theorem.

Example 7.13. Consider the "up-to-date" - "behind" model of Example 7.1. States

1 and 2 correspond to being up-to-date and being behind, respectively, and the transition probabilities are

Pu = 0.8, P12 = 0.2, P21 = 0.6, P22 = 0.4.

Sec. 7.5 Continuous-Time Markov Chains 369

Let us focus on state s = 1 and calculate the mean first passage time to state 1.

starting from state 2. We have tl = 0 and

t2 + 1 + + = P21it P22t2 1 0.4t2.

from which

1 = 5 - =-.

t2 0.6 3 The mean recurrence time to state 1 is given by

tl =

3 = l + Plltl + P12t2 = 1 + 0 + 0.2 · 3'

Equations for Mean First Passage and Recurrence Times

Consider a Markov chain with a single recurrent class, and let s be a par­ ticular recurrent state.

The mean first passage times ti to reach state s starting from i, are the unique solution to the system of equations

ts = 0,

ti = 1+ L Pijtj , for all i =1= s.

j=l

The mean recurrence time t; of state s is given by

t; = 1+ L Psjtj .

j=1

7.5 CONTINUOUS-TIME MARKOV CHAINS In the Markov chain models that we have con�idered so far. we have assumed

that the transitions between states take unit time. In this section. we consider a related class of models that evolve in continuous time and can be used to study systems involving continuous-time arrival proce�ses. Example� are distribution centers or nodes in communication networks where some event� of interest (e.g .. arrivals of orders or of new calls) are de�cribed in terms of Poi�son proce�se�.

As before, we will consider a proce�� that involves transition� from one state to the next, according to given transition probabilities, but we will model the times spent between transitions as continuous random variables. \Ve will still assume that the number of states is finite and. in the absence of a statement to the contrary, we will let the state �pacc be the �et S = {I .. . . . m}.

370 Markov Chains Chap. 7 To describe the process, we introduce certain random variables of interest:

Xn : the state right after the nth transition; Yn : the time of the nth transition: Tn : the time elapsed between the (n - l)st and the nth transition.

For completeness, we denote by Xo the initial state, and we let Yo = O. We also introduce some assumptions.

Continuous-Time Markov Chain Assumptions

If the current state is i, the time until the next transition is exponen­ tially distributed with a given parameter Vi , independent of the past history of the process and of the next state .

If the current state is i, the next state will be j with a given probability Pij , independent of the past history of the process and of the time until

the next transition.

The above assumptions are a complete description of the process and pro­ vide an unambiguous method for simulating it: given that we just entered state

i, we remain at state i for a time that is exponentially distributed with parameter Vi, and then move to a next state j according to the transition probabilities Pij . As an immediate consequence. the sequence of states Xn obtained after succes­

sive transitions is a discrete-time Markov chain, with transition probabilities Pij , called the embedded Markov chain. In mathematical terms, our assumptions can be formulated as follows. Let

A = {TI = tl , . . . , Tn = tn, Xo = io, . . . . Xn-l = in-I , Xn = i}

be an event that captures the history of the process until the nth transition. We then have

P(Xn+l = j, Tn+l � t I A) = P(Xn+1 = j, Tn+l � t I Xn = i) = P(Xn+1 = j I Xn = i) P(Tn+1 � t I Xn = i)

for all t � O.

The expected time to the next transition is

so we can interpret Vi as the average number of transitions out of state i, per unit time spent at state i. Consequently, the parameter Vi is called the transition

Sec.

Continuous-Time Markov Chains 371

rate out of state i. Since only a fraction Pij of the transitions out of state i will lead to state j, we may also view

qij = ViPij

as the average number of transitions from i to j, per unit time spent at i. Accordingly, we call qij the transition rate from i to j. Note that given the transition rates qij , one can obtain the transition rates Vi using the formula

Vi =

qij ,

j=l

and the transition probabilities using the formula

qij Pi} =-. Vi

Note that the model allows for self-transitions, from a state back to itself, which can indeed happen if a self-transition probability Pii is nonzero. However, such self-transitions have no observable effects: because of the memorylessness of the exponential distribution, the remaining time until the next transition is the same, irrespective of whether a self-transition just occurred or not. For this reason, we can ignore self-transitions and we will henceforth assume that

Pii = qii = 0,

for all i.

A machine, once in production mode, operates continuously until an alarm signal is generated. The time up to the alarm signal is an exponential random variable with parameter 1. Subsequent to the alarm signal, the machine is tested for an exponentially distributed amount of time with parameter 5. The test results are positive, with probability 1 /2, in which case the machine returns to pro­ duction mode, or negative, with probability 1 /2, in which case the machine is taken

Example 7.14.

for repair. The duration of the repair is exponentially distributed with parameter

3. We assume that the above mentioned random variables are all independent and also independent of the test results. Let states 1,

respectively. The transition rates are 3, VI = 1, V2 = 5, and V3 = The transition

probabilities and the transition rates are given by the following two matrices: 3.

2, and

correspond to production mode, testing, and repair,

P = 1/2 [0 Q = [0 5/2 5/2 . 01

See Fig. 7.20 for an illustration.

of the Ivlarkov chai n i n

7. 1 4 . The

indicated next to each arc are the transition rates qij '

We finally 1v1arkov p ro p e r t y of t he

(t) the state of a

p r e s e n t state

X ( T ) for T > t], is

process [the random

X for T < t] .

We now elaborate on the relation between a continuous-time Ivlarkov and

to an description of a continuous-time Markov chai n ,

a corresponding

Zn == X(n8),

n == O. l , . . ..

(the Ivlarkov property of

to describe the transition probabilities of Zn.

i s a probability

(n + 1 )8,

a transition

at time t,

notation X(t) is

A common

convention is to let X (t) refer to the state right after the transition , so that (Yn ) is same as

Sec. 7.5 Continuous-Time Markov Chains 373

further probability Pij that the next state is j. Therefore,

Pij = P(Zn+l = jI Zn = i) = ViPij6 + 0(6) = qij6 + 0(6), if j =1= i,

where 0(6) is a term that is negligible compared to 6, as 6 gets smaller. The probability of remaining at i [i.e. , no transition occurs between times n6 and (n + 1)6] is

iI

Pii = P(Zn+l = Zn = i) = 1 - L Pij·

j#i

This gives rise to the following alternative description. t Alternative Description of a Continuous-Time Markov Chain

Given the current state i of a continuous-time Markov chain, and for any

j =1= i, the state 6 time units later is equal to j with probability

independent of the past history of the process.

Example 7. 14 (continued) . Neglecting 0(8) terms, the transition probability matrix for the corresponding discrete-time Markov chain Zn is

[1- 58/2 58

38 1- o

Example 7.15. Queueing. Packets arrive at a node of a communication network according to a Poisson process with rate A. The packets are stored at a buffer with room for up to m packets, and are then transmitted one at a time. However, if a packet finds a full buffer upon arrival, it is discarded. The time required to transmit

a packet is exponentially distributed with parameter JJ. The transmission times of different packets are independent and are also independent from all the interarrival times.

We will model this system using a continuous-time Markov chain with state X(t) equal to the number of packets in the system at time t [if X (t) > 0, then

t Our argument so far shows that a continuous-time Markov chain satisfies this alternative description. Conversely, it can be shown that if we start with this alter­ native description, the time until a transition out of state i is an exponential random variable with parameter Vi = Ej qij . Furthermore, given that such a transition has

just occurred, the next state is j with probability qij / Vi = Pij. This establishes that

the alternative description is equivalent to the original one.

Markov Chains Chap. 7

X(t) - 1 packets are waiting in the queue and one packet is under transmission] .

state

by one

a new packet

by one

an existing packet departs. To s how that

X (t) i s i ndeed a Markov chain, we verify we have

rates qij .

Consider

X (t) is equal to O. A t r a n s iti o n out

the case where the

is empty,

the state

state 0 can only occur if there is a new which case

(X(t + 8) = 11 (t) = 0) = At5 +

{AI

and

if j = l ,

qOj = 0,

Consider next the case where t he system is fun, i . e . \ t he state X (t) is

to m. A transition out of state m will occur upon the completion of the c urr e n t

s t a t e m - l.

at

the

of a tra n s missi on is exponential (and in particular, memory less) , we

(t +

if j = m -1,

case

X (t) is

to some

state i,

with 0 <

i < m.

During next £5 time units, there is a p r o b a b i l i t y .x8 + 0(8) of a

new packet arrival, which will b r in g t he s t a te to i + 1 , and a probability J..L8 + 0(8)

state to i - l.

of [, is of the

probability of

an

of 62 case with other 0(8) terms.]

( X (t + 8) = i-I I X (t) = i) = JL8 + o(8) ! + 8) = i+ 11 (t) = i ) = +

if j = i + 1,

if j = i-I,

i = 1 , 2, . . . ,m-l;

see

7.21: Transition

in

Sec. 7.5 Continuous-Time Markov Chains 375

Steady-State Behavior

We now turn our attention to the long-term behavior of a continuous-time Markov chain and focus on the state occupancy probabilities P(X(t) = i), in the limit as t gets large. We approach this problem by studying the steady-state probabilities of the corresponding discrete-time chain Zn.

Since Zn = X(n8), it is clear that the limit 'Trj of P(Zn = j I Zo = i),

if it exists, is the same as the limit of P(X(t) = j I X(O) = i). It therefore

suffices to consider the steady-state probabilities associated with Zn. Reasoning as in the discrete-time case, we see that for the steady-state probabilities to be independent of the initial state, we need the chain Zn to have a single recurrent

class, which we will henceforth assume. We also note that the Markov chain Zn is automatically aperiodic. This is because the self-transition probabilities are

of the form

Pii = 1- 8 L qij + 0(8): j:j:.i

which is positive when 8 is small, and because chains with nonzero self-transition

probabilities are always aperiodic. The balance equations for the chain Zn are of the form

'Trj m

L 'Trk Pkj k=l

for all j,

= k:j:.j

or

'Trj 'TrjPjj + L 'TrkPkj

(1 - k:j:.j ) k:j:.j

'Trj

8 L qjk + 0(8) + L 'Trk(Qkj8 + 0(8)).

We cancel out the term 'Trj that appears on both sides of the equation, divide by

8, and take the limit as 8 decreases to zero, to obtain the balance equations

We can now invoke the Steady-State Convergence Theorem for the chain Zn to obtain the following.

Steady-State Convergence Theorem

Consider a continuous-time Markov chain with a single recurrent class. Then, the states j are associated with steady-state probabilities 'Tr j that

have the f ol l o w i ng properties.

376 Markov Chains Chap. 7

(a) For each j, we have

t-oo p(X(t) = j I X(O) = i)

lim

= 'lrj, for all i.

(b) The 'lrj are the unique solution to the system of equations below: j = 1, ... , m,

(c) We have

'lrj = 0, for all transient states j, 'lrj > 0, for all recurrent states j .

'lrj as the expected long-term fraction of time the process spends in state j. It follows that 'lrkqkj can be viewed as the expected frequency of transitions from k to j (expected number of transitions from k to j per unit time) . It is seen therefore that the balance equations express the intuitive fact that the frequency of transitions out of state

To interpret the balance equations, we view

j (the left-hand side term

'lrj Lk,cj qjk) is equal to the frequency of transitions into state j (the right-hand side term Lk,cj 7rkqkj).

Example 7.14 (continued) . The balance and normalization equations for this example are

As in the discrete-time case, one of these equations is redundant, e.g. , the third equation can be obtained from the first two. Still. there is a unique solution:

Thus, for example, if we let the process run for a long time, X{t) will be at state 1 with probability 30/41 , independent of the initial state.

The steady-state probabilities 7I"j are to be distinguished from the steady­ state probabilities 1fj of the embedded Markov chain Xn . Indeed, the balance and normalization equations for the embedded Markov chain are

Sec. 7.5 Continuous-Time Markov Chains 377

yielding the solution

11" 1 = 5'

11"2 = 5'

11"3 = 5'

To interpret the probabilities 1i' j, we can say, for example, that if we let the process run for a long time, the expected fraction of transitions that lead to state 1 is equal to 2/5.

Note that even though 1i'1 = 1i' 2 (that is, there are about as many transitions

into state 1 as there are transitions into state 2), we have 11" 1 > 11"2 . The reason is

that the process tends to spend more time during a typical visit to state 1 than during a typical visit to state 2. Hence, at a given time t, the process X(t) is more likely to be found at state 1. This situation is typical, and the two sets of