Pengaruh DAU, PAD, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, dan Jumlah Penduduk Terhadap Belanja Daerah Kabupaten Kota Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 1
HASIL REGRESSION MODEL GLS FIXED EFFECT MODEL (FEM)
VARIABEL TERIKAT : BELANJA DAERAH (Y1)
Dependent Variable: LBD?
Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section weights)
Date: 11/16/15 Time: 00:10
Sample: 2010 2013
Included observations: 4
Cross-sections included: 33
Total pool (balanced) observations: 132
Linear estimation after one-step weighting matrix
Variable
C
LDAU?
LPAD?
LPE?
LJP?
Fixed Effects (Cross)
_NIAS--C
_MADINA--C
_TAPSEL--C
_TAPTENG--C
_TAPUT--C
_TOBASAMOSIR--C
_LABUHANBATU--C
_ASAHAN--C
_SIMALUNGUN--C
_DAIRI--C
_KARO--C
_DELISERDANG--C
_LANGKAT--C
_NIASSELATAN--C
_HUMBAHAS--C
_PAKPAKBARAT--C
_SAMOSIR--C
_SERGE--C
_BATUBARA--C
_PALUTA--C
_PALAS--C
_LABUSEL--C
_LABURA--C
_NIASUTARA--C
_NIASBARAT--C
_SIBOLGA--C
_TANJUNGBALAI--C
_PAMATANGSIANTAR--C
_TEBINGTINGGI--C
_MEDAN--C
_BINJAI--C
_PADANGSIDIMPUAN—C
_GUNUNGSITOLI--C
Coefficient Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
-16 77797
0.723904
0.053141
-0.046644
3.615106
-3 835302
15.36187
3.839990
-1.663160
4.052300
0 0002
0.0000
0.0002
0.0996
0.0001
4 374616
0.047123
0.013839
0.028046
0.892112
1.088702
-0.640848
0.010077
-0.220133
-0.040521
0.724910
-0.654672
-1.371914
-1.681219
-0.040688
-0.430587
-2.890503
-1.942175
-0.109760
0.652048
2.885981
1.202318
-1.212292
-0.537940
0.235462
0.137746
-0.095552
-0.307436
1.075209
1.778679
1.731326
0.783101
0.210807
0.924551
-2.940949
0.123652
0.461636
1.090985
75
Universitas Sumatera Utara
(Lanjutan Lampiran 1)
Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
Weighted Statistics
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.993754
0.991387
0.045124
419.8668
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Sum squared resid
Durbin-Watson stat
25.95705
28.70101
0.193440
2.325747
Unweighted Statistics
R-squared
Sum squared resid
0.973989
0.204041
Mean dependent var
Durbin-Watson stat
11.75741
2.307852
76
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 2
HASIL REGRESSION MODEL GLS FIXED EFFECT MODEL (FEM)
VARIABEL TERIKAT : DAYA SERAP BELANJA DAERAH (Y2)
Dependent Variable: LDSBD?
Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section weights)
Date: 11/16/15 Time: 00:19
Sample: 2010 2013
Included observations: 4
Cross-sections included: 33
Total pool (balanced) observations: 132
Linear estimation after one-step weighting matrix
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
LDAU?
LPAD?
LPE?
LJP?
Fixed Effects (Cross)
_NIAS--C
_MADINA--C
_TAPSEL--C
_TAPTENG--C
_TAPUT--C
_TOBASAMOSIR--C
_LABUHANBATU--C
_ASAHAN--C
_SIMALUNGUN--C
_DAIRI--C
_KARO--C
_DELISERDANG--C
_LANGKAT--C
_NIASSELATAN--C
_HUMBAHAS--C
_PAKPAKBARAT--C
_SAMOSIR--C
_SERGE--C
_BATUBARA--C
_PALUTA--C
_PALAS--C
_LABUSEL--C
_LABURA--C
_NIASUTARA--C
_NIASBARAT--C
_SIBOLGA--C
_TANJUNGBALAI--C
_PAMATANGSIANTAR—C
_TEBINGTINGGI--C
_MEDAN--C
_BINJAI--C
_PADANGSIDIMPUAN—C
_GUNUNGSITOLI--C
23.55873
0.230268
-0.050536
0.084093
-4.378019
4.956364
0.043847
0.022956
0.071367
0.980002
4.753229
5.251677
-2.201449
1.178317
-4.467359
0.0000
0.0000
0.0301
0.2416
0.0000
-1.324075
0.814574
-0.032483
0.302571
0.114453
-0.790747
0.888528
1.777850
2.102400
0.035507
0.523402
3.562362
2.378494
0.137284
-0.841964
-3.547260
-1.527616
1.508431
0.659593
-0.463818
-0.328970
0.065587
0.464515
-1.426222
-2.272933
-2.167573
-1.025085
-0.241395
-1.051024
3.836169
-0.142908
-0.570953
-1.416694
77
Universitas Sumatera Utara
(Lanjutan Lampiran 2)
Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
Weighted Statistics
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.711653
0.602384
0.053031
6.512882
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Sum squared resid
Durbin-Watson stat
3.927316
2.343741
0.267167
2.331594
Unweighted Statistics
R-squared
Sum squared resid
0.471814
0.340703
Mean dependent var
Durbin-Watson stat
1.984674
1.955148
78
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 3
HASIL REGRESSION MODEL GLS RANDOM EFFECT MODEL (REM)
VARIABEL TERIKAT : BELANJA DAERAH (Y1)
Dependent Variable: LBD?
Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section random effects)
Date: 11/16/15 Time: 00:12
Sample: 2010 2013
Included observations: 4
Cross-sections included: 33
Total pool (balanced) observations: 132
Swamy and Arora estimator of component variances
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
LDAU?
LPAD?
LPE?
LJP?
Random Effects (Cross)
_NIAS--C
_MADINA--C
_TAPSEL--C
_TAPTENG--C
_TAPUT--C
_TOBASAMOSIR--C
_LABUHANBATU--C
_ASAHAN--C
_SIMALUNGUN--C
_DAIRI--C
_KARO--C
_DELISERDANG--C
_LANGKAT--C
_NIASSELATAN--C
_HUMBAHAS--C
_PAKPAKBARAT--C
_SAMOSIR--C
_SERGE--C
_BATUBARA--C
_PALUTA--C
_PALAS--C
_LABUSEL--C
_LABURA--C
_NIASUTARA--C
_NIASBARAT--C
_SIBOLGA--C
_TANJUNGBALAI--C
_PAMATANGSIANTAR—C
_TEBINGTINGGI--C
_MEDAN--C
_BINJAI--C
_PADANGSIDIMPUAN—C
_GUNUNGSITOLI--C
1.034161
0.774176
0.119042
0.064091
0.086782
0.419986
0.052896
0.023220
0.078294
0.025978
2.462369
14.63570
5.126628
0.818603
3.340557
0.0151
0.0000
0.0000
0.4145
0.0011
0.000265
-0.007180
-0.015582
0.016606
0.012708
0.043138
0.005751
0.009459
-0.001585
-0.009874
-0.012073
-0.029489
-0.008471
0.019880
-0.002158
0.031888
-0.007881
-0.002768
0.002731
0.001423
-0.046727
-0.005003
0.018076
-0.008187
0.021623
-0.011969
-0.023044
-0.004637
-0.010351
0.046264
-0.006735
-0.010380
-0.005715
79
Universitas Sumatera Utara
(Lanjutan Lampiran 3)
Effects Specification
S.D.
Cross-section random
Idiosyncratic random
0.026734
0.046012
Rho
0.2524
0.7476
Weighted Statistics
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.929783
0.927572
0.047618
420.4221
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Sum squared resid
Durbin-Watson stat
7.669096
0.176936
0.287966
1.743425
Unweighted Statistics
R-squared
Sum squared resid
0.952998
0.368706
Mean dependent var
Durbin-Watson stat
11.75741
1.361648
80
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 4
HASIL REGRESSION MODEL GLS RANDOM EFFECT MODEL (REM)
VARIABEL TERIKAT : DAYA SERAP BELANJA DAERAH (Y2)
Dependent Variable: LDSBD?
Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section random effects)
Date: 11/16/15 Time: 00:24
Sample: 2010 2013
Included observations: 4
Cross-sections included: 33
Total pool (balanced) observations: 132
Swamy and Arora estimator of component variances
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
LDAU?
LPAD?
LPE?
LJP?
Random Effects (Cross)
_NIAS--C
_MADINA--C
_TAPSEL--C
_TAPTENG--C
_TAPUT--C
_TOBASAMOSIR--C
_LABUHANBATU--C
_ASAHAN--C
_SIMALUNGUN--C
_DAIRI--C
_KARO--C
_DELISERDANG--C
_LANGKAT--C
_NIASSELATAN--C
_HUMBAHAS--C
_PAKPAKBARAT--C
_SAMOSIR--C
_SERGE--C
_BATUBARA--C
_PALUTA--C
_PALAS--C
_LABUSEL--C
_LABURA--C
_NIASUTARA--C
_NIASBARAT--C
_SIBOLGA--C
_TANJUNGBALAI--C
_PAMATANGSIANTAR—C
_TEBINGTINGGI--C
_MEDAN--C
_BINJAI--C
_PADANGSIDIMPUAN—C
_GUNUNGSITOLI--C
0.811368
0.148774
-0.046700
0.024108
-0.015191
0.517949
0.064712
0.027367
0.095811
0.031128
1.566502
2.299003
-1.706447
0.251618
-0.488003
0.1197
0.0231
0.0904
0.8017
0.6264
0.006332
0.018653
-0.004399
0.001359
0.016128
0.016051
0.020836
0.026078
0.002329
0.007680
0.002226
-0.013854
-0.013645
-0.011957
-0.005253
-0.001515
-0.005718
0.001936
0.004865
-0.071668
-0.016924
-0.014057
0.030048
-0.015395
-0.024936
0.000884
-0.002705
0.004886
0.044834
-0.014369
0.005337
0.011659
-0.005724
81
Universitas Sumatera Utara
(Lanjutan Lampiran 4)
Effects Specification
S.D.
Cross-section random
Idiosyncratic random
0.028296
0.058236
Rho
0.1910
0.8090
Weighted Statistics
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.035924
0.005559
0.063654
1.183083
0.321439
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Sum squared resid
Durbin-Watson stat
1.423329
0.063831
0.514578
1.427386
Unweighted Statistics
R-squared
Sum squared resid
0.042032
0.617932
Mean dependent var
Durbin-Watson stat
1.984674
1.188645
82
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 5
HASIL ESTIMASI HAUSMAN TEST
VARIABEL TERIKAT : BELANJA DAERAH (Y1)
Correlated Random Effects - Hausman Test
Pool: POOL1
Test cross-section random effects
Chi-Sq.
Statistic
Chi-Sq. d.f.
13.019127
4
Test Summary
Cross-section random
Prob.
0.0112
Cross-section random effects test comparisons:
Variable
LDAU?
LPAD?
LPE?
LJP?
Fixed
0.670199
0.070246
-0.022281
4.712859
Random
Var(Diff.)
Prob.
0.774176
0.119042
0.064091
0.086782
0.004116
0.001743
0.004153
1.686736
0.1051
0.2425
0.1802
0.0004
Cross-section random effects test equation:
Dependent Variable: LBD?
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 11/16/15 Time: 00:14
Sample: 2010 2013
Included observations: 4
Cross-sections included: 33
Total pool (balanced) observations: 132
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
LDAU?
LPAD?
LPE?
LJP?
-22.31523
0.670199
0.070246
-0.022281
4.712859
6.580598
0.083150
0.047772
0.101406
1.299004
-3.391063
8.060161
1.470460
-0.219725
3.628056
0.0010
0.0000
0.1447
0.8266
0.0005
Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.974361
0.964645
0.046012
0.201125
240.8178
100.2852
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
11.75741
0.244706
-3.088149
-2.280090
-2.759791
2.329392
83
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 6
HASIL ESTIMASI HAUSMAN TEST
VARIABEL TERIKAT : DAYA SERAP BELANJA DAERAH (Y2)
Correlated Random Effects - Hausman Test
Pool: POOL1
Test cross-section random effects
Chi-Sq.
Statistic
Chi-Sq. d.f.
28.727535
4
Test Summary
Cross-section random
Prob.
0.0000
Cross-section random effects test comparisons:
Variable
LDAU?
LPAD?
LPE?
LJP?
Fixed
0.410462
-0.080114
0.261768
-7.364046
Random
Var(Diff.)
Prob.
0.148774
-0.046700
0.024108
-0.015191
0.006888
0.002907
0.007293
2.702156
0.0016
0.5354
0.0054
0.0000
Cross-section random effects test equation:
Dependent Variable: LDSBD?
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 11/16/15 Time: 00:25
Sample: 2010 2013
Included observations: 4
Cross-sections included: 33
Total pool (balanced) observations: 132
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
LDAU?
LPAD?
LPE?
LJP?
37.86202
0.410462
-0.080114
0.261768
-7.364046
8.328906
0.105240
0.060463
0.128347
1.644118
4.545858
3.900232
-1.325003
2.039529
-4.479025
0.0000
0.0002
0.1883
0.0442
0.0000
Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.500516
0.311238
0.058236
0.322189
209.7177
2.644345
0.000090
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
1.984674
0.070171
-2.616936
-1.808877
-2.288578
2.057948
84
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 7
Data Anggaran Belanja Daerah Kabupaten/Kota Sumatera Utara
Pemerintah Daerah
Nias
Mandailing Natal
Tapanuli Selatan
Tapanuli Tengah
Tapanuli Utara
Toba Samosir
Labuhan Batu
Asahan
Simalungun
Dairi
Karo
Deli Serdang
Langkat
Nias Selatan
Humbang Hasundutan
Pakpak Barat
Samosir
Serdang Bedagai
Batu Bara
Padang Lawas Utara
Padang Lawas
Labuhanbatu Selatan
Labuhanbatu Utara
Nias Utara
Nias Barat
Sibolga
Tanjungbalai
Pematangsiantar
Tebing Tinggi
Medan
Binjai
Padangsidimpuan
Gunung Sitoli
Total/Jumlah
2010
350,671,955,956
2011
390,044,633,632
2012
2013
431,735,328,732
507,809,091,578
538,001,736,639
625,704,056,459
672,801,441,205
544,209,968,506
576,545,187,545
714,785,849,133
460,484,536,459
562,180,934,606
630,111,237,650
499,411,365,764
652,012,697,086
703,079,867,678
456,919,672,840
418,102,752,830
576,914,905,875
566,426,529,993
636,267,254,782
710,270,437,970
669,516,367,229
803,226,790,072
837,685,919,821
937,542,572,000 1,051,208,762,290 1,398,050,339,534
445,651,735,000
491,598,014,000
600,876,700,016
542,289,000,000
722,337,967,135
824,499,679,138
1,320,132,146,200 1,666,732,220,789 2,036,653,757,071
942,714,948,043 1,151,917,261,505 1,382,150,710,914
523,467,891,927
523,719,470,430
612,507,839,917
381,875,331,294
453,363,173,246
529,132,383,700
249,121,577,227
290,031,678,386
328,122,916,868
368,498,924,896
421,585,879,715
440,324,297,236
656,236,681,581
713,530,565,410
841,424,313,453
443,292,766,766
559,663,922,663
649,716,711,841
344,609,212,004
408,481,476,701
591,541,073,450
390,817,756,612
460,617,343,914
532,450,500,351
377,613,044,860
477,343,158,450
489,219,297,398
414,114,169,816
494,822,939,629
537,064,195,904
173,921,485,100
356,219,475,370
327,058,812,000
133,834,988,426
312,429,390,954
343,115,036,290
313,884,721,410
405,896,267,847
398,940,082,643
363,250,000,000
385,970,000,000
484,903,380,096
484,336,467,450
606,537,633,787
657,341,315,546
325,635,987,430
414,563,994,796
347,610,903,300
2,357,352,728,000 2,931,391,811,500 3,825,133,827,036
433,169,626,206
494,811,616,368
652,252,087,348
355,006,184,200
425,814,018,010
493,746,639,942
162,679,992,823
343,331,020,675
418,377,507,701
17,526,692,072,657 21,228,003,370,582 25,019,599,296,756
782,789,720,557
911,994,956,018
894,270,342,279
826,403,422,274
775,750,895,507
797,935,659,344
1,038,246,173,976
1,397,127,273,832
763,255,992,380
854,452,636,990
2,383,194,121,790
1,686,770,493,054
818,720,278,267
659,374,030,626
404,257,723,348
570,836,715,009
1,050,661,876,346
838,315,478,587
713,940,877,748
585,018,136,668
766,534,801,926
630,997,090,306
456,527,551,584
368,658,122,985
500,466,573,631
584,623,406,691
789,236,965,582
497,470,675,900
4,524,737,504,275
814,461,618,389
683,656,640,297
454,847,617,587
30,333,344,465,330
85
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 8
Data Realisasi Belanja Daerah Kabupaten/Kota Sumatera Utara 2010-2013
Pemerintah
Nias
Mandailing Natal
Tapanuli Selatan
Tapanuli Tengah
Tapanuli Utara
Toba Samosir
Labuhan Batu
Asahan
Simalungun
Dairi
Karo
Deli Serdang
Langkat
Nias Selatan
Humbang Hasundutan
Pakpak Barat
Samosir
Serdang Bedagai
Batu Bara
Padang Lawas Utara
Padang Lawas
Labuhanbatu Selatan
Labuhanbatu Utara
Nias Utara
Nias Barat
Sibolga
Tanjungbalai
Pematangsiantar
Tebing Tinggi
Medan
Binjai
Padangsidimpuan
Gunung Sitoli
Total/Jumlah
2010
306,518,683,000
602,563,533,412
472,067,567,732
434,505,432,625
548,166,791,560
462,560,212,959
599,477,429,000
713,231,010,914
988,749,208,531
487,883,816,872
585,246,911,000
1,295,341,239,837
967,881,060,777
465,293,748,000
382,999,693,787
231,573,004,143
355,950,547,569
666,468,396,241
500,027,119,000
304,464,356,527
380,114,868,000
315,584,167,118
422,942,320,000
141,185,351,000
107,260,738,000
291,699,218,350
338,243,925,602
499,631,564,449
315,430,692,624
2,235,195,758,724
418,220,391,835
356,260,243,037
137,137,485,000
2011
406,403,024,909
650,263,316,991
554,348,545,417
544,321,692,514
705,123,140,596
479,662,453,930
628,347,460,842
889,574,470,458
1,088,622,687,483
535,857,675,655
675,614,384,705
1,630,138,586,593
1,063,869,134,064
479,421,889,590
432,517,402,737
318,568,754,148
419,708,902,797
731,773,294,426
558,737,287,208
453,839,538,459
416,234,576,099
429,131,382,169
528,499,512,282
280,931,462,457
257,203,207,002
368,638,103,891
393,778,674,064
564,819,922,155
439,094,659,348
3,041,037,853,628
546,497,391,347
463,524,730,418
343,828,336,582
2012
404,093,407,445
765,109,821,478
676,127,862,414
680,016,226,474
737,700,051,049
619,897,003,865
756,081,998,796
1,037,633,546,451
1,378,042,599,884
593,188,127,145
750,398,279,123
1,801,286,859,347
1,329,229,102,793
621,171,485,818
511,537,853,879
296,703,054,552
400,830,597,210
830,317,734,084
641,952,160,817
571,471,637,184
439,833,949,611
438,876,267,201
665,840,020,299
335,400,739,586
275,441,231,743
414,040,749,412
446,140,831,521
639,607,159,845
479,585,196,048
3,021,172,391,042
650,087,241,200
527,246,070,030
401,324,408,976
2013
476,487,660,034
850,556,308,683
842,846,295,842
861,257,508,874
834,384,699,583
770,736,194,658
825,646,954,241
1,143,614,491,115
1,432,130,758,219
694,246,838,536
901,675,564,724
2,005,506,481,569
1,536,811,928,028
669,036,597,704
605,789,787,843
381,852,026,957
506,371,859,188
979,791,935,503
760,743,078,670
166,895,102,804
504,166,349,741
720,349,638,082
766,421,207,104
442,082,330,985
358,734,130,290
450,894,422,403
472,459,755,943
741,073,062,642
584,572,435,995
3,224,449,030,409
702,167,562,649
614,899,498,099
442,554,279,556
17,329,876,487,226 21,319,933,454,965 24,137,385,666,321 27,271,205,776,671
86
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 9
Data Realisasi DAU Kabupaten/Kota Sumatera Utara tahun 2010-2013
Pemerintah
Nias
Mandailing Natal
Tapanuli Selatan
Tapanuli Tengah
Tapanuli Utara
Toba Samosir
Labuhan Batu
Asahan
Simalungun
Dairi
Karo
Deli Serdang
Langkat
Nias Selatan
Humbang Hasundutan
Pakpak Barat
Samosir
Serdang Bedagai
Batu Bara
Padang Lawas Utara
Padang Lawas
Labuhanbatu Selatan
Labuhanbatu Utara
Nias Utara
Nias Barat
Sibolga
Tanjungbalai
Pematangsiantar
Tebing Tinggi
Medan
Binjai
Padangsidimpuan
Gunung Sitoli
Total Realisasi DAU
2010
2011
151,147,338,000
265,217,572,360
398,482,296,000
455,393,393,000
334,737,772,000
375,893,846,000
313,957,675,000
343,731,494,000
369,275,117,000
405,822,524,429
280,449,853,000
310,252,416,000
315,309,299,000
367,737,566,342
479,299,307,000
523,561,849,000
644,610,865,000
696,225,292,000
336,864,702,000
372,373,356,825
401,710,290,000
441,566,566,000
793,141,685,000
888,557,245,000
655,701,432,800
736,887,815,640
277,887,323,000
318,920,943,000
279,893,022,000
313,431,176,000
167,780,345,000
198,239,174,000
243,041,606,000
282,988,294,000
420,258,697,000
458,160,308,000
337,663,203,000
385,883,017,000
243,969,546,000
262,539,422,000
241,106,688,000
249,496,791,000
249,091,013,000
266,922,749,000
296,809,708,000
346,684,689,000
108,563,262,100
231,764,690,000
63,068,373,000
193,616,447,000
227,216,241,600
248,405,548,000
241,921,536,000
275,525,468,000
313,941,731,000
352,525,649,000
228,057,807,000
261,948,729,000
846,541,452,400 1,066,353,555,000
293,536,658,000
336,779,454,000
270,129,118,000
308,014,507,000
100,936,065,000
251,728,688,000
10,926,101,026,900 12,793,150,234,596
2012
2013
289,608,144,000
541,106,638,000
454,322,254,000
422,611,672,000
487,345,532,000
387,623,169,000
461,644,282,000
628,974,980,000
865,405,855,000
451,176,116,000
546,294,802,000
1,100,013,616,000
847,503,037,000
378,605,613,000
376,847,178,000
232,990,274,000
331,412,601,000
554,245,457,000
452,227,480,000
348,056,278,000
331,754,392,000
334,512,284,000
400,601,985,000
267,283,183,000
227,860,916,000
292,873,107,000
313,729,707,000
429,632,177,000
307,635,669,000
1,153,789,320,000
416,965,216,000
364,923,284,000
305,726,000,000
15,305,302,218,000
336,470,399,000
625,543,432,000
517,342,688,000
491,010,818,000
552,463,221,000
423,292,453,000
520,457,519,000
733,671,988,000
977,808,611,000
512,477,041,000
625,822,348,000
1,260,755,135,000
982,658,132,000
422,367,546,000
440,919,622,000
273,598,951,000
384,760,680,000
628,900,240,000
517,734,102,000
244,257,363,000
371,650,111,000
400,566,653,000
457,714,720,000
294,071,932,000
251,631,634,000
338,507,471,000
369,246,576,000
492,115,399,000
368,586,756,000
1,270,244,794,000
477,553,537,000
423,251,346,000
356,042,897,000
17,343,496,115,000
87
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 10
Data Realisasi PAD Pada Kabupaten/Kota Sumatera Utara Tahun 2010-2013
Pemerintah
Nias
Mandailing Natal
Tapanuli Selatan
Tapanuli Tengah
Tapanuli Utara
Toba Samosir
Labuhan Batu
Asahan
Simalungun
Dairi
Karo
Deli Serdang
Langkat
Nias Selatan
Humbang Hasundutan
Pakpak Barat
Samosir
Serdang Bedagai
Batu Bara
Padang Lawas Utara
Padang Lawas
Labuhanbatu Selatan
Labuhanbatu Utara
Nias Utara
Nias Barat
Sibolga
Tanjungbalai
Pematangsiantar
Tebing Tinggi
Medan
Binjai
Padangsidimpuan
Gunung Sitoli
Jumlah realisasi PAD
2010
17,629,575,000
11,825,857,864
30,496,787,002
13,371,779,335
15,433,009,546
11,988,553,566
38,532,205,000
25,982,186,358
45,255,604,122
19,835,722,474
27,685,562,000
120,537,227,592
31,357,008,435
10,276,243,000
10,007,220,641
4,533,364,577
11,813,219,103
22,093,187,209
20,616,744,000
5,317,205,098
12,528,138,000
8,371,926,408
10,657,251,000
1,905,121,000
958,747,000
15,118,409,482
24,126,011,466
25,910,942,909
26,272,468,556
588,941,453,692
18,832,884,481
14,602,383,887
2,663,494,000
2011
2012
2013
18,943,904,322
29,821,669,770
44,726,140,941
27,525,847,377
21,274,113,486
47,665,840,298
57,463,805,227
56,418,119,779
69,220,483,496
18,209,682,593
21,136,802,117
23,210,742,293
36,063,155,709
34,023,120,253
37,954,419,652
14,117,728,012
16,542,682,536
19,803,160,418
50,958,558,913
59,439,168,713
49,784,550,240
31,844,327,602
37,894,587,647
53,691,705,753
42,543,353,964
61,246,499,257
97,914,775,901
17,673,471,407
20,911,510,364
29,933,428,377
35,363,329,911
41,242,973,174
46,342,693,862
213,791,544,829
291,017,501,163
328,348,147,362
34,540,642,904
129,242,580,780
65,521,499,189
23,030,719,094
15,592,080,807
32,087,688,050
12,870,031,746
17,901,926,972
17,632,873,686
6,306,028,983
6,353,111,715
9,080,676,937
14,201,578,952
17,459,630,443
26,661,345,261
35,894,399,483
39,274,569,799
50,371,328,199
13,240,860,819
16,558,177,254
27,761,999,043
8,728,414,452
12,798,137,844
15,805,273,213
7,628,252,033
9,881,176,852
23,140,067,442
17,081,271,911
18,976,643,017
26,701,972,211
10,518,250,179
18,971,116,519
25,651,299,858
6,655,233,083
8,990,037,383
8,857,118,964
2,761,470,685
5,460,766,343
7,223,690,779
21,663,389,950
26,698,353,730
29,457,629,416
27,089,059,682
27,702,368,427
31,920,539,485
44,792,749,489
49,915,365,993
61,357,963,445
32,738,790,021
47,330,983,759
53,199,538,064
995,072,572,141 1,147,901,461,607 1,206,169,709,148
26,470,115,888
48,178,078,783
49,172,643,726
21,465,271,347
23,622,308,246
35,018,175,219
6,051,302,347
9,329,678,837
10,382,482,094
1,245,477,493,804 1,933,299,115,055 2,389,107,303,370 2,661,771,602,024
88
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 11
Data Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Pada Kabupaten/Kota Sumatera Utara
Tahun 2010-2013 (Persen)
Kabupaten/Kota
Nias
Mandailing Natal
Tapanuli Selatan
Tapanuli Tengah
Tapanuli Utara
Toba Samosir
Labuhan Batu
Asahan
Simalungun
Dairi
Karo
Deli Serdang
Langkat
Nias Selatan
Humbang Hasundutan
Pakpak Barat
Samosir
Serdang Bedagai
Batu Bara
Padang Lawas Utara
Padang Lawas
Labuhanbatu Selatan
Labuhanbatu Utara
Nias Utara
Nias Barat
Sibolga
Tanjungbalai
Pematangsiantar
Tebing Tinggi
Medan
Binjai
Padangsidimpuan
Gunung Sitoli
Sumatera Utara
2010
6.75
6.41
5.06
6.13
5.56
5.5
5.15
4.97
5.12
5.02
6.03
5.98
5.74
4.12
5.45
6.77
5.59
6.14
4.65
6.74
5.56
5.61
5.68
6.73
6.3
6.04
4.76
5.85
6.04
7.16
6.07
5.81
6.73
6.42
2011
6.81
6.43
5.26
6.27
5.54
5.26
5.72
5.37
5.81
5.28
6.59
6.01
5.78
4.46
5.94
5.98
5.96
5.98
5.11
6.81
6.39
6.13
6.21
6.68
6.76
5.06
5.11
6.02
6.67
7.69
6.28
5.99
6.56
6.53
2012
6.24
6.41
5.22
6.35
5.95
5.52
6.11
5.57
6.06
5.44
6.34
6.06
5.66
5.78
5.99
6.02
6.07
6
4.37
6.38
6.31
6.33
6.38
5.88
4.93
5.34
4.99
5.71
6.75
7.63
6.61
6.23
6.28
6.22
2013
6.43
6.41
5.21
6.85
6.05
5.14
6.00
5.83
4.48
5.46
4.72
12.79
5.97
5.16
6.03
5.86
6.46
5.97
3.35
6.13
6.12
6.05
6.33
6.25
5.81
5.8
4.52
5.16
6.91
4.3
6.48
6.2
6.35
6.01
89
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 12
Data Jumlah Penduduk Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Sumatera Utara
Tahun 2010-2013
Pemerintah
Nias
Mandailing Natal
Tapanuli Selatan
Tapanuli Tengah
Tapanuli Utara
Toba Samosir
Labuhan Batu
Asahan
Simalungun
Dairi
Karo
Deli Serdang
Langkat
Nias Selatan
Humbang Hasundutan
Pakpak Barat
Samosir
Serdang Bedagai
Batu Bara
Padang Lawas Utara
Padang Lawas
Labuhanbatu Selatan
Labuhanbatu Utara
Nias Utara
Nias Barat
Sibolga
Tanjungbalai
Pematangsiantar
Tebing Tinggi
Medan
Binjai
Padangsidimpuan
Gunung Sitoli
Total/Jumlah
2010
131,377
404,945
263,815
311,232
279,257
173,129
415,110
668,272
817,720
270,053
350,960
1,790,431
967,535
289,708
171,650
40,505
119,653
594,383
375,885
223,531
225,259
277,673
330,701
127,244
81,807
84,481
154,445
234,698
145,248
2,097,610
246,154
191,531
126,202
2011
132,605
408,731
266,282
314,142
281,868
174,748
418,992
674,521
825,366
272,578
354,242
1,807,173
976,582
292,417
173,255
40,884
120,772
599,941
379,400
225,621
227,365
280,269
333,793
128,434
82,572
85,271
155,889
236,893
146,606
2,117,224
248,456
193,322
127,382
2012
132,860
410,931
268,095
318,908
283,871
174,865
424,644
677,876
830,986
273,394
358,823
1,845,615
976,885
294,069
174,765
41,492
121,594
604,026
381,023
229,064
232,166
284,809
335,459
128,533
82,701
85,852
157,175
236,947
147,771
2,122,804
250,252
198,809
128,337
2013
133,388
413,475
268,824
324,006
286,118
175,069
430,718
681,794
833,251
276,238
363,755
1,886,388
978,734
295,968
176,429
42,144
121,924
605,583
382,960
232,746
237,259
289,655
337,404
129,053
82,854
85,981
158,599
237,434
149,065
2,123,210
252,263
204,615
129,403
12,982,204
13,103,596
13,215,401
13,326,307
90
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 13
Data Daya Serap Belanja Daerah Kabupaten/Kota Sumatera Utara
Tahun 2010-2013 (Persen)
Pemerintah
Kab. Nias
Kab. Mandailing Natal
Kab. Tapanuli Selatan
Kab.Tapanuli Tengah
Kab. Tapanuli Utara
Kab. Toba Samosir
Kab. Labuhan Batu
Kab. Asahan
Kab. Simalungun
Kab. Dairi
Kab. Karo
Kab. Deli Serdang
Kab. Langkat
Kab. Nias Selatan
Kab. Humbang Hasundutan
Kab. Pakpak Barat
Kab. Samosir
Kab.Serdang Bedagai
Kab. Batu Bara
Kab. Padang Lawas Utara
Kab. Padang Lawas
Kab. Labuhanbatu Selatan
Kab. Labuhanbatu Utara
Kab. Nias Utara
Kab.Nias Barat
Kota Sibolga
Kota Tanjungbalai
Kota Pematangsiantar
Kota Tebing Tinggi
Kota Medan
Kota Binjai
Kota Padangsidimpuan
Kota Gunung Sitoli
2010
87.41
112.00
86.74
94.36
109.76
101.23
105.83
106.53
105.46
109.48
107.92
98.12
102.67
88.89
100.29
92.96
96.59
101.56
112.80
88.35
97.26
83.57
102.13
81.18
80.14
92.93
93.12
103.16
96.87
94.82
96.55
100.35
84.30
2011
104.19
103.93
96.15
96.82
108.15
114.72
98.76
110.75
103.56
109.00
93.53
97.80
92.36
91.54
95.40
109.84
99.55
102.56
99.83
111.10
90.36
89.90
106.81
78.86
82.32
90.82
102.02
93.12
105.92
103.74
110.45
108.86
100.14
2012
93.60
113.72
94.59
107.92
104.92
107.45
106.45
123.87
98.57
98.72
91.01
88.44
96.17
101.41
96.67
90.42
91.03
98.68
98.80
96.61
82.61
89.71
123.98
102.55
80.28
103.79
92.01
97.30
137.97
78.98
99.67
106.78
95.92
2013
93.83
108.66
92.42
96.31
100.97
99.35
103.47
110.15
102.51
90.96
105.53
84.15
91.11
81.72
91.87
94.46
88.71
93.25
90.75
23.38
86.18
93.97
121.46
96.84
97.31
90.09
80.81
93.90
117.51
71.26
86.21
89.94
97.30
91
Universitas Sumatera Utara
HASIL REGRESSION MODEL GLS FIXED EFFECT MODEL (FEM)
VARIABEL TERIKAT : BELANJA DAERAH (Y1)
Dependent Variable: LBD?
Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section weights)
Date: 11/16/15 Time: 00:10
Sample: 2010 2013
Included observations: 4
Cross-sections included: 33
Total pool (balanced) observations: 132
Linear estimation after one-step weighting matrix
Variable
C
LDAU?
LPAD?
LPE?
LJP?
Fixed Effects (Cross)
_NIAS--C
_MADINA--C
_TAPSEL--C
_TAPTENG--C
_TAPUT--C
_TOBASAMOSIR--C
_LABUHANBATU--C
_ASAHAN--C
_SIMALUNGUN--C
_DAIRI--C
_KARO--C
_DELISERDANG--C
_LANGKAT--C
_NIASSELATAN--C
_HUMBAHAS--C
_PAKPAKBARAT--C
_SAMOSIR--C
_SERGE--C
_BATUBARA--C
_PALUTA--C
_PALAS--C
_LABUSEL--C
_LABURA--C
_NIASUTARA--C
_NIASBARAT--C
_SIBOLGA--C
_TANJUNGBALAI--C
_PAMATANGSIANTAR--C
_TEBINGTINGGI--C
_MEDAN--C
_BINJAI--C
_PADANGSIDIMPUAN—C
_GUNUNGSITOLI--C
Coefficient Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
-16 77797
0.723904
0.053141
-0.046644
3.615106
-3 835302
15.36187
3.839990
-1.663160
4.052300
0 0002
0.0000
0.0002
0.0996
0.0001
4 374616
0.047123
0.013839
0.028046
0.892112
1.088702
-0.640848
0.010077
-0.220133
-0.040521
0.724910
-0.654672
-1.371914
-1.681219
-0.040688
-0.430587
-2.890503
-1.942175
-0.109760
0.652048
2.885981
1.202318
-1.212292
-0.537940
0.235462
0.137746
-0.095552
-0.307436
1.075209
1.778679
1.731326
0.783101
0.210807
0.924551
-2.940949
0.123652
0.461636
1.090985
75
Universitas Sumatera Utara
(Lanjutan Lampiran 1)
Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
Weighted Statistics
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.993754
0.991387
0.045124
419.8668
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Sum squared resid
Durbin-Watson stat
25.95705
28.70101
0.193440
2.325747
Unweighted Statistics
R-squared
Sum squared resid
0.973989
0.204041
Mean dependent var
Durbin-Watson stat
11.75741
2.307852
76
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 2
HASIL REGRESSION MODEL GLS FIXED EFFECT MODEL (FEM)
VARIABEL TERIKAT : DAYA SERAP BELANJA DAERAH (Y2)
Dependent Variable: LDSBD?
Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section weights)
Date: 11/16/15 Time: 00:19
Sample: 2010 2013
Included observations: 4
Cross-sections included: 33
Total pool (balanced) observations: 132
Linear estimation after one-step weighting matrix
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
LDAU?
LPAD?
LPE?
LJP?
Fixed Effects (Cross)
_NIAS--C
_MADINA--C
_TAPSEL--C
_TAPTENG--C
_TAPUT--C
_TOBASAMOSIR--C
_LABUHANBATU--C
_ASAHAN--C
_SIMALUNGUN--C
_DAIRI--C
_KARO--C
_DELISERDANG--C
_LANGKAT--C
_NIASSELATAN--C
_HUMBAHAS--C
_PAKPAKBARAT--C
_SAMOSIR--C
_SERGE--C
_BATUBARA--C
_PALUTA--C
_PALAS--C
_LABUSEL--C
_LABURA--C
_NIASUTARA--C
_NIASBARAT--C
_SIBOLGA--C
_TANJUNGBALAI--C
_PAMATANGSIANTAR—C
_TEBINGTINGGI--C
_MEDAN--C
_BINJAI--C
_PADANGSIDIMPUAN—C
_GUNUNGSITOLI--C
23.55873
0.230268
-0.050536
0.084093
-4.378019
4.956364
0.043847
0.022956
0.071367
0.980002
4.753229
5.251677
-2.201449
1.178317
-4.467359
0.0000
0.0000
0.0301
0.2416
0.0000
-1.324075
0.814574
-0.032483
0.302571
0.114453
-0.790747
0.888528
1.777850
2.102400
0.035507
0.523402
3.562362
2.378494
0.137284
-0.841964
-3.547260
-1.527616
1.508431
0.659593
-0.463818
-0.328970
0.065587
0.464515
-1.426222
-2.272933
-2.167573
-1.025085
-0.241395
-1.051024
3.836169
-0.142908
-0.570953
-1.416694
77
Universitas Sumatera Utara
(Lanjutan Lampiran 2)
Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
Weighted Statistics
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.711653
0.602384
0.053031
6.512882
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Sum squared resid
Durbin-Watson stat
3.927316
2.343741
0.267167
2.331594
Unweighted Statistics
R-squared
Sum squared resid
0.471814
0.340703
Mean dependent var
Durbin-Watson stat
1.984674
1.955148
78
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 3
HASIL REGRESSION MODEL GLS RANDOM EFFECT MODEL (REM)
VARIABEL TERIKAT : BELANJA DAERAH (Y1)
Dependent Variable: LBD?
Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section random effects)
Date: 11/16/15 Time: 00:12
Sample: 2010 2013
Included observations: 4
Cross-sections included: 33
Total pool (balanced) observations: 132
Swamy and Arora estimator of component variances
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
LDAU?
LPAD?
LPE?
LJP?
Random Effects (Cross)
_NIAS--C
_MADINA--C
_TAPSEL--C
_TAPTENG--C
_TAPUT--C
_TOBASAMOSIR--C
_LABUHANBATU--C
_ASAHAN--C
_SIMALUNGUN--C
_DAIRI--C
_KARO--C
_DELISERDANG--C
_LANGKAT--C
_NIASSELATAN--C
_HUMBAHAS--C
_PAKPAKBARAT--C
_SAMOSIR--C
_SERGE--C
_BATUBARA--C
_PALUTA--C
_PALAS--C
_LABUSEL--C
_LABURA--C
_NIASUTARA--C
_NIASBARAT--C
_SIBOLGA--C
_TANJUNGBALAI--C
_PAMATANGSIANTAR—C
_TEBINGTINGGI--C
_MEDAN--C
_BINJAI--C
_PADANGSIDIMPUAN—C
_GUNUNGSITOLI--C
1.034161
0.774176
0.119042
0.064091
0.086782
0.419986
0.052896
0.023220
0.078294
0.025978
2.462369
14.63570
5.126628
0.818603
3.340557
0.0151
0.0000
0.0000
0.4145
0.0011
0.000265
-0.007180
-0.015582
0.016606
0.012708
0.043138
0.005751
0.009459
-0.001585
-0.009874
-0.012073
-0.029489
-0.008471
0.019880
-0.002158
0.031888
-0.007881
-0.002768
0.002731
0.001423
-0.046727
-0.005003
0.018076
-0.008187
0.021623
-0.011969
-0.023044
-0.004637
-0.010351
0.046264
-0.006735
-0.010380
-0.005715
79
Universitas Sumatera Utara
(Lanjutan Lampiran 3)
Effects Specification
S.D.
Cross-section random
Idiosyncratic random
0.026734
0.046012
Rho
0.2524
0.7476
Weighted Statistics
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.929783
0.927572
0.047618
420.4221
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Sum squared resid
Durbin-Watson stat
7.669096
0.176936
0.287966
1.743425
Unweighted Statistics
R-squared
Sum squared resid
0.952998
0.368706
Mean dependent var
Durbin-Watson stat
11.75741
1.361648
80
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 4
HASIL REGRESSION MODEL GLS RANDOM EFFECT MODEL (REM)
VARIABEL TERIKAT : DAYA SERAP BELANJA DAERAH (Y2)
Dependent Variable: LDSBD?
Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section random effects)
Date: 11/16/15 Time: 00:24
Sample: 2010 2013
Included observations: 4
Cross-sections included: 33
Total pool (balanced) observations: 132
Swamy and Arora estimator of component variances
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
LDAU?
LPAD?
LPE?
LJP?
Random Effects (Cross)
_NIAS--C
_MADINA--C
_TAPSEL--C
_TAPTENG--C
_TAPUT--C
_TOBASAMOSIR--C
_LABUHANBATU--C
_ASAHAN--C
_SIMALUNGUN--C
_DAIRI--C
_KARO--C
_DELISERDANG--C
_LANGKAT--C
_NIASSELATAN--C
_HUMBAHAS--C
_PAKPAKBARAT--C
_SAMOSIR--C
_SERGE--C
_BATUBARA--C
_PALUTA--C
_PALAS--C
_LABUSEL--C
_LABURA--C
_NIASUTARA--C
_NIASBARAT--C
_SIBOLGA--C
_TANJUNGBALAI--C
_PAMATANGSIANTAR—C
_TEBINGTINGGI--C
_MEDAN--C
_BINJAI--C
_PADANGSIDIMPUAN—C
_GUNUNGSITOLI--C
0.811368
0.148774
-0.046700
0.024108
-0.015191
0.517949
0.064712
0.027367
0.095811
0.031128
1.566502
2.299003
-1.706447
0.251618
-0.488003
0.1197
0.0231
0.0904
0.8017
0.6264
0.006332
0.018653
-0.004399
0.001359
0.016128
0.016051
0.020836
0.026078
0.002329
0.007680
0.002226
-0.013854
-0.013645
-0.011957
-0.005253
-0.001515
-0.005718
0.001936
0.004865
-0.071668
-0.016924
-0.014057
0.030048
-0.015395
-0.024936
0.000884
-0.002705
0.004886
0.044834
-0.014369
0.005337
0.011659
-0.005724
81
Universitas Sumatera Utara
(Lanjutan Lampiran 4)
Effects Specification
S.D.
Cross-section random
Idiosyncratic random
0.028296
0.058236
Rho
0.1910
0.8090
Weighted Statistics
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.035924
0.005559
0.063654
1.183083
0.321439
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Sum squared resid
Durbin-Watson stat
1.423329
0.063831
0.514578
1.427386
Unweighted Statistics
R-squared
Sum squared resid
0.042032
0.617932
Mean dependent var
Durbin-Watson stat
1.984674
1.188645
82
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 5
HASIL ESTIMASI HAUSMAN TEST
VARIABEL TERIKAT : BELANJA DAERAH (Y1)
Correlated Random Effects - Hausman Test
Pool: POOL1
Test cross-section random effects
Chi-Sq.
Statistic
Chi-Sq. d.f.
13.019127
4
Test Summary
Cross-section random
Prob.
0.0112
Cross-section random effects test comparisons:
Variable
LDAU?
LPAD?
LPE?
LJP?
Fixed
0.670199
0.070246
-0.022281
4.712859
Random
Var(Diff.)
Prob.
0.774176
0.119042
0.064091
0.086782
0.004116
0.001743
0.004153
1.686736
0.1051
0.2425
0.1802
0.0004
Cross-section random effects test equation:
Dependent Variable: LBD?
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 11/16/15 Time: 00:14
Sample: 2010 2013
Included observations: 4
Cross-sections included: 33
Total pool (balanced) observations: 132
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
LDAU?
LPAD?
LPE?
LJP?
-22.31523
0.670199
0.070246
-0.022281
4.712859
6.580598
0.083150
0.047772
0.101406
1.299004
-3.391063
8.060161
1.470460
-0.219725
3.628056
0.0010
0.0000
0.1447
0.8266
0.0005
Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.974361
0.964645
0.046012
0.201125
240.8178
100.2852
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
11.75741
0.244706
-3.088149
-2.280090
-2.759791
2.329392
83
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 6
HASIL ESTIMASI HAUSMAN TEST
VARIABEL TERIKAT : DAYA SERAP BELANJA DAERAH (Y2)
Correlated Random Effects - Hausman Test
Pool: POOL1
Test cross-section random effects
Chi-Sq.
Statistic
Chi-Sq. d.f.
28.727535
4
Test Summary
Cross-section random
Prob.
0.0000
Cross-section random effects test comparisons:
Variable
LDAU?
LPAD?
LPE?
LJP?
Fixed
0.410462
-0.080114
0.261768
-7.364046
Random
Var(Diff.)
Prob.
0.148774
-0.046700
0.024108
-0.015191
0.006888
0.002907
0.007293
2.702156
0.0016
0.5354
0.0054
0.0000
Cross-section random effects test equation:
Dependent Variable: LDSBD?
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 11/16/15 Time: 00:25
Sample: 2010 2013
Included observations: 4
Cross-sections included: 33
Total pool (balanced) observations: 132
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
LDAU?
LPAD?
LPE?
LJP?
37.86202
0.410462
-0.080114
0.261768
-7.364046
8.328906
0.105240
0.060463
0.128347
1.644118
4.545858
3.900232
-1.325003
2.039529
-4.479025
0.0000
0.0002
0.1883
0.0442
0.0000
Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.500516
0.311238
0.058236
0.322189
209.7177
2.644345
0.000090
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
1.984674
0.070171
-2.616936
-1.808877
-2.288578
2.057948
84
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 7
Data Anggaran Belanja Daerah Kabupaten/Kota Sumatera Utara
Pemerintah Daerah
Nias
Mandailing Natal
Tapanuli Selatan
Tapanuli Tengah
Tapanuli Utara
Toba Samosir
Labuhan Batu
Asahan
Simalungun
Dairi
Karo
Deli Serdang
Langkat
Nias Selatan
Humbang Hasundutan
Pakpak Barat
Samosir
Serdang Bedagai
Batu Bara
Padang Lawas Utara
Padang Lawas
Labuhanbatu Selatan
Labuhanbatu Utara
Nias Utara
Nias Barat
Sibolga
Tanjungbalai
Pematangsiantar
Tebing Tinggi
Medan
Binjai
Padangsidimpuan
Gunung Sitoli
Total/Jumlah
2010
350,671,955,956
2011
390,044,633,632
2012
2013
431,735,328,732
507,809,091,578
538,001,736,639
625,704,056,459
672,801,441,205
544,209,968,506
576,545,187,545
714,785,849,133
460,484,536,459
562,180,934,606
630,111,237,650
499,411,365,764
652,012,697,086
703,079,867,678
456,919,672,840
418,102,752,830
576,914,905,875
566,426,529,993
636,267,254,782
710,270,437,970
669,516,367,229
803,226,790,072
837,685,919,821
937,542,572,000 1,051,208,762,290 1,398,050,339,534
445,651,735,000
491,598,014,000
600,876,700,016
542,289,000,000
722,337,967,135
824,499,679,138
1,320,132,146,200 1,666,732,220,789 2,036,653,757,071
942,714,948,043 1,151,917,261,505 1,382,150,710,914
523,467,891,927
523,719,470,430
612,507,839,917
381,875,331,294
453,363,173,246
529,132,383,700
249,121,577,227
290,031,678,386
328,122,916,868
368,498,924,896
421,585,879,715
440,324,297,236
656,236,681,581
713,530,565,410
841,424,313,453
443,292,766,766
559,663,922,663
649,716,711,841
344,609,212,004
408,481,476,701
591,541,073,450
390,817,756,612
460,617,343,914
532,450,500,351
377,613,044,860
477,343,158,450
489,219,297,398
414,114,169,816
494,822,939,629
537,064,195,904
173,921,485,100
356,219,475,370
327,058,812,000
133,834,988,426
312,429,390,954
343,115,036,290
313,884,721,410
405,896,267,847
398,940,082,643
363,250,000,000
385,970,000,000
484,903,380,096
484,336,467,450
606,537,633,787
657,341,315,546
325,635,987,430
414,563,994,796
347,610,903,300
2,357,352,728,000 2,931,391,811,500 3,825,133,827,036
433,169,626,206
494,811,616,368
652,252,087,348
355,006,184,200
425,814,018,010
493,746,639,942
162,679,992,823
343,331,020,675
418,377,507,701
17,526,692,072,657 21,228,003,370,582 25,019,599,296,756
782,789,720,557
911,994,956,018
894,270,342,279
826,403,422,274
775,750,895,507
797,935,659,344
1,038,246,173,976
1,397,127,273,832
763,255,992,380
854,452,636,990
2,383,194,121,790
1,686,770,493,054
818,720,278,267
659,374,030,626
404,257,723,348
570,836,715,009
1,050,661,876,346
838,315,478,587
713,940,877,748
585,018,136,668
766,534,801,926
630,997,090,306
456,527,551,584
368,658,122,985
500,466,573,631
584,623,406,691
789,236,965,582
497,470,675,900
4,524,737,504,275
814,461,618,389
683,656,640,297
454,847,617,587
30,333,344,465,330
85
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 8
Data Realisasi Belanja Daerah Kabupaten/Kota Sumatera Utara 2010-2013
Pemerintah
Nias
Mandailing Natal
Tapanuli Selatan
Tapanuli Tengah
Tapanuli Utara
Toba Samosir
Labuhan Batu
Asahan
Simalungun
Dairi
Karo
Deli Serdang
Langkat
Nias Selatan
Humbang Hasundutan
Pakpak Barat
Samosir
Serdang Bedagai
Batu Bara
Padang Lawas Utara
Padang Lawas
Labuhanbatu Selatan
Labuhanbatu Utara
Nias Utara
Nias Barat
Sibolga
Tanjungbalai
Pematangsiantar
Tebing Tinggi
Medan
Binjai
Padangsidimpuan
Gunung Sitoli
Total/Jumlah
2010
306,518,683,000
602,563,533,412
472,067,567,732
434,505,432,625
548,166,791,560
462,560,212,959
599,477,429,000
713,231,010,914
988,749,208,531
487,883,816,872
585,246,911,000
1,295,341,239,837
967,881,060,777
465,293,748,000
382,999,693,787
231,573,004,143
355,950,547,569
666,468,396,241
500,027,119,000
304,464,356,527
380,114,868,000
315,584,167,118
422,942,320,000
141,185,351,000
107,260,738,000
291,699,218,350
338,243,925,602
499,631,564,449
315,430,692,624
2,235,195,758,724
418,220,391,835
356,260,243,037
137,137,485,000
2011
406,403,024,909
650,263,316,991
554,348,545,417
544,321,692,514
705,123,140,596
479,662,453,930
628,347,460,842
889,574,470,458
1,088,622,687,483
535,857,675,655
675,614,384,705
1,630,138,586,593
1,063,869,134,064
479,421,889,590
432,517,402,737
318,568,754,148
419,708,902,797
731,773,294,426
558,737,287,208
453,839,538,459
416,234,576,099
429,131,382,169
528,499,512,282
280,931,462,457
257,203,207,002
368,638,103,891
393,778,674,064
564,819,922,155
439,094,659,348
3,041,037,853,628
546,497,391,347
463,524,730,418
343,828,336,582
2012
404,093,407,445
765,109,821,478
676,127,862,414
680,016,226,474
737,700,051,049
619,897,003,865
756,081,998,796
1,037,633,546,451
1,378,042,599,884
593,188,127,145
750,398,279,123
1,801,286,859,347
1,329,229,102,793
621,171,485,818
511,537,853,879
296,703,054,552
400,830,597,210
830,317,734,084
641,952,160,817
571,471,637,184
439,833,949,611
438,876,267,201
665,840,020,299
335,400,739,586
275,441,231,743
414,040,749,412
446,140,831,521
639,607,159,845
479,585,196,048
3,021,172,391,042
650,087,241,200
527,246,070,030
401,324,408,976
2013
476,487,660,034
850,556,308,683
842,846,295,842
861,257,508,874
834,384,699,583
770,736,194,658
825,646,954,241
1,143,614,491,115
1,432,130,758,219
694,246,838,536
901,675,564,724
2,005,506,481,569
1,536,811,928,028
669,036,597,704
605,789,787,843
381,852,026,957
506,371,859,188
979,791,935,503
760,743,078,670
166,895,102,804
504,166,349,741
720,349,638,082
766,421,207,104
442,082,330,985
358,734,130,290
450,894,422,403
472,459,755,943
741,073,062,642
584,572,435,995
3,224,449,030,409
702,167,562,649
614,899,498,099
442,554,279,556
17,329,876,487,226 21,319,933,454,965 24,137,385,666,321 27,271,205,776,671
86
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 9
Data Realisasi DAU Kabupaten/Kota Sumatera Utara tahun 2010-2013
Pemerintah
Nias
Mandailing Natal
Tapanuli Selatan
Tapanuli Tengah
Tapanuli Utara
Toba Samosir
Labuhan Batu
Asahan
Simalungun
Dairi
Karo
Deli Serdang
Langkat
Nias Selatan
Humbang Hasundutan
Pakpak Barat
Samosir
Serdang Bedagai
Batu Bara
Padang Lawas Utara
Padang Lawas
Labuhanbatu Selatan
Labuhanbatu Utara
Nias Utara
Nias Barat
Sibolga
Tanjungbalai
Pematangsiantar
Tebing Tinggi
Medan
Binjai
Padangsidimpuan
Gunung Sitoli
Total Realisasi DAU
2010
2011
151,147,338,000
265,217,572,360
398,482,296,000
455,393,393,000
334,737,772,000
375,893,846,000
313,957,675,000
343,731,494,000
369,275,117,000
405,822,524,429
280,449,853,000
310,252,416,000
315,309,299,000
367,737,566,342
479,299,307,000
523,561,849,000
644,610,865,000
696,225,292,000
336,864,702,000
372,373,356,825
401,710,290,000
441,566,566,000
793,141,685,000
888,557,245,000
655,701,432,800
736,887,815,640
277,887,323,000
318,920,943,000
279,893,022,000
313,431,176,000
167,780,345,000
198,239,174,000
243,041,606,000
282,988,294,000
420,258,697,000
458,160,308,000
337,663,203,000
385,883,017,000
243,969,546,000
262,539,422,000
241,106,688,000
249,496,791,000
249,091,013,000
266,922,749,000
296,809,708,000
346,684,689,000
108,563,262,100
231,764,690,000
63,068,373,000
193,616,447,000
227,216,241,600
248,405,548,000
241,921,536,000
275,525,468,000
313,941,731,000
352,525,649,000
228,057,807,000
261,948,729,000
846,541,452,400 1,066,353,555,000
293,536,658,000
336,779,454,000
270,129,118,000
308,014,507,000
100,936,065,000
251,728,688,000
10,926,101,026,900 12,793,150,234,596
2012
2013
289,608,144,000
541,106,638,000
454,322,254,000
422,611,672,000
487,345,532,000
387,623,169,000
461,644,282,000
628,974,980,000
865,405,855,000
451,176,116,000
546,294,802,000
1,100,013,616,000
847,503,037,000
378,605,613,000
376,847,178,000
232,990,274,000
331,412,601,000
554,245,457,000
452,227,480,000
348,056,278,000
331,754,392,000
334,512,284,000
400,601,985,000
267,283,183,000
227,860,916,000
292,873,107,000
313,729,707,000
429,632,177,000
307,635,669,000
1,153,789,320,000
416,965,216,000
364,923,284,000
305,726,000,000
15,305,302,218,000
336,470,399,000
625,543,432,000
517,342,688,000
491,010,818,000
552,463,221,000
423,292,453,000
520,457,519,000
733,671,988,000
977,808,611,000
512,477,041,000
625,822,348,000
1,260,755,135,000
982,658,132,000
422,367,546,000
440,919,622,000
273,598,951,000
384,760,680,000
628,900,240,000
517,734,102,000
244,257,363,000
371,650,111,000
400,566,653,000
457,714,720,000
294,071,932,000
251,631,634,000
338,507,471,000
369,246,576,000
492,115,399,000
368,586,756,000
1,270,244,794,000
477,553,537,000
423,251,346,000
356,042,897,000
17,343,496,115,000
87
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 10
Data Realisasi PAD Pada Kabupaten/Kota Sumatera Utara Tahun 2010-2013
Pemerintah
Nias
Mandailing Natal
Tapanuli Selatan
Tapanuli Tengah
Tapanuli Utara
Toba Samosir
Labuhan Batu
Asahan
Simalungun
Dairi
Karo
Deli Serdang
Langkat
Nias Selatan
Humbang Hasundutan
Pakpak Barat
Samosir
Serdang Bedagai
Batu Bara
Padang Lawas Utara
Padang Lawas
Labuhanbatu Selatan
Labuhanbatu Utara
Nias Utara
Nias Barat
Sibolga
Tanjungbalai
Pematangsiantar
Tebing Tinggi
Medan
Binjai
Padangsidimpuan
Gunung Sitoli
Jumlah realisasi PAD
2010
17,629,575,000
11,825,857,864
30,496,787,002
13,371,779,335
15,433,009,546
11,988,553,566
38,532,205,000
25,982,186,358
45,255,604,122
19,835,722,474
27,685,562,000
120,537,227,592
31,357,008,435
10,276,243,000
10,007,220,641
4,533,364,577
11,813,219,103
22,093,187,209
20,616,744,000
5,317,205,098
12,528,138,000
8,371,926,408
10,657,251,000
1,905,121,000
958,747,000
15,118,409,482
24,126,011,466
25,910,942,909
26,272,468,556
588,941,453,692
18,832,884,481
14,602,383,887
2,663,494,000
2011
2012
2013
18,943,904,322
29,821,669,770
44,726,140,941
27,525,847,377
21,274,113,486
47,665,840,298
57,463,805,227
56,418,119,779
69,220,483,496
18,209,682,593
21,136,802,117
23,210,742,293
36,063,155,709
34,023,120,253
37,954,419,652
14,117,728,012
16,542,682,536
19,803,160,418
50,958,558,913
59,439,168,713
49,784,550,240
31,844,327,602
37,894,587,647
53,691,705,753
42,543,353,964
61,246,499,257
97,914,775,901
17,673,471,407
20,911,510,364
29,933,428,377
35,363,329,911
41,242,973,174
46,342,693,862
213,791,544,829
291,017,501,163
328,348,147,362
34,540,642,904
129,242,580,780
65,521,499,189
23,030,719,094
15,592,080,807
32,087,688,050
12,870,031,746
17,901,926,972
17,632,873,686
6,306,028,983
6,353,111,715
9,080,676,937
14,201,578,952
17,459,630,443
26,661,345,261
35,894,399,483
39,274,569,799
50,371,328,199
13,240,860,819
16,558,177,254
27,761,999,043
8,728,414,452
12,798,137,844
15,805,273,213
7,628,252,033
9,881,176,852
23,140,067,442
17,081,271,911
18,976,643,017
26,701,972,211
10,518,250,179
18,971,116,519
25,651,299,858
6,655,233,083
8,990,037,383
8,857,118,964
2,761,470,685
5,460,766,343
7,223,690,779
21,663,389,950
26,698,353,730
29,457,629,416
27,089,059,682
27,702,368,427
31,920,539,485
44,792,749,489
49,915,365,993
61,357,963,445
32,738,790,021
47,330,983,759
53,199,538,064
995,072,572,141 1,147,901,461,607 1,206,169,709,148
26,470,115,888
48,178,078,783
49,172,643,726
21,465,271,347
23,622,308,246
35,018,175,219
6,051,302,347
9,329,678,837
10,382,482,094
1,245,477,493,804 1,933,299,115,055 2,389,107,303,370 2,661,771,602,024
88
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 11
Data Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Pada Kabupaten/Kota Sumatera Utara
Tahun 2010-2013 (Persen)
Kabupaten/Kota
Nias
Mandailing Natal
Tapanuli Selatan
Tapanuli Tengah
Tapanuli Utara
Toba Samosir
Labuhan Batu
Asahan
Simalungun
Dairi
Karo
Deli Serdang
Langkat
Nias Selatan
Humbang Hasundutan
Pakpak Barat
Samosir
Serdang Bedagai
Batu Bara
Padang Lawas Utara
Padang Lawas
Labuhanbatu Selatan
Labuhanbatu Utara
Nias Utara
Nias Barat
Sibolga
Tanjungbalai
Pematangsiantar
Tebing Tinggi
Medan
Binjai
Padangsidimpuan
Gunung Sitoli
Sumatera Utara
2010
6.75
6.41
5.06
6.13
5.56
5.5
5.15
4.97
5.12
5.02
6.03
5.98
5.74
4.12
5.45
6.77
5.59
6.14
4.65
6.74
5.56
5.61
5.68
6.73
6.3
6.04
4.76
5.85
6.04
7.16
6.07
5.81
6.73
6.42
2011
6.81
6.43
5.26
6.27
5.54
5.26
5.72
5.37
5.81
5.28
6.59
6.01
5.78
4.46
5.94
5.98
5.96
5.98
5.11
6.81
6.39
6.13
6.21
6.68
6.76
5.06
5.11
6.02
6.67
7.69
6.28
5.99
6.56
6.53
2012
6.24
6.41
5.22
6.35
5.95
5.52
6.11
5.57
6.06
5.44
6.34
6.06
5.66
5.78
5.99
6.02
6.07
6
4.37
6.38
6.31
6.33
6.38
5.88
4.93
5.34
4.99
5.71
6.75
7.63
6.61
6.23
6.28
6.22
2013
6.43
6.41
5.21
6.85
6.05
5.14
6.00
5.83
4.48
5.46
4.72
12.79
5.97
5.16
6.03
5.86
6.46
5.97
3.35
6.13
6.12
6.05
6.33
6.25
5.81
5.8
4.52
5.16
6.91
4.3
6.48
6.2
6.35
6.01
89
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 12
Data Jumlah Penduduk Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Sumatera Utara
Tahun 2010-2013
Pemerintah
Nias
Mandailing Natal
Tapanuli Selatan
Tapanuli Tengah
Tapanuli Utara
Toba Samosir
Labuhan Batu
Asahan
Simalungun
Dairi
Karo
Deli Serdang
Langkat
Nias Selatan
Humbang Hasundutan
Pakpak Barat
Samosir
Serdang Bedagai
Batu Bara
Padang Lawas Utara
Padang Lawas
Labuhanbatu Selatan
Labuhanbatu Utara
Nias Utara
Nias Barat
Sibolga
Tanjungbalai
Pematangsiantar
Tebing Tinggi
Medan
Binjai
Padangsidimpuan
Gunung Sitoli
Total/Jumlah
2010
131,377
404,945
263,815
311,232
279,257
173,129
415,110
668,272
817,720
270,053
350,960
1,790,431
967,535
289,708
171,650
40,505
119,653
594,383
375,885
223,531
225,259
277,673
330,701
127,244
81,807
84,481
154,445
234,698
145,248
2,097,610
246,154
191,531
126,202
2011
132,605
408,731
266,282
314,142
281,868
174,748
418,992
674,521
825,366
272,578
354,242
1,807,173
976,582
292,417
173,255
40,884
120,772
599,941
379,400
225,621
227,365
280,269
333,793
128,434
82,572
85,271
155,889
236,893
146,606
2,117,224
248,456
193,322
127,382
2012
132,860
410,931
268,095
318,908
283,871
174,865
424,644
677,876
830,986
273,394
358,823
1,845,615
976,885
294,069
174,765
41,492
121,594
604,026
381,023
229,064
232,166
284,809
335,459
128,533
82,701
85,852
157,175
236,947
147,771
2,122,804
250,252
198,809
128,337
2013
133,388
413,475
268,824
324,006
286,118
175,069
430,718
681,794
833,251
276,238
363,755
1,886,388
978,734
295,968
176,429
42,144
121,924
605,583
382,960
232,746
237,259
289,655
337,404
129,053
82,854
85,981
158,599
237,434
149,065
2,123,210
252,263
204,615
129,403
12,982,204
13,103,596
13,215,401
13,326,307
90
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 13
Data Daya Serap Belanja Daerah Kabupaten/Kota Sumatera Utara
Tahun 2010-2013 (Persen)
Pemerintah
Kab. Nias
Kab. Mandailing Natal
Kab. Tapanuli Selatan
Kab.Tapanuli Tengah
Kab. Tapanuli Utara
Kab. Toba Samosir
Kab. Labuhan Batu
Kab. Asahan
Kab. Simalungun
Kab. Dairi
Kab. Karo
Kab. Deli Serdang
Kab. Langkat
Kab. Nias Selatan
Kab. Humbang Hasundutan
Kab. Pakpak Barat
Kab. Samosir
Kab.Serdang Bedagai
Kab. Batu Bara
Kab. Padang Lawas Utara
Kab. Padang Lawas
Kab. Labuhanbatu Selatan
Kab. Labuhanbatu Utara
Kab. Nias Utara
Kab.Nias Barat
Kota Sibolga
Kota Tanjungbalai
Kota Pematangsiantar
Kota Tebing Tinggi
Kota Medan
Kota Binjai
Kota Padangsidimpuan
Kota Gunung Sitoli
2010
87.41
112.00
86.74
94.36
109.76
101.23
105.83
106.53
105.46
109.48
107.92
98.12
102.67
88.89
100.29
92.96
96.59
101.56
112.80
88.35
97.26
83.57
102.13
81.18
80.14
92.93
93.12
103.16
96.87
94.82
96.55
100.35
84.30
2011
104.19
103.93
96.15
96.82
108.15
114.72
98.76
110.75
103.56
109.00
93.53
97.80
92.36
91.54
95.40
109.84
99.55
102.56
99.83
111.10
90.36
89.90
106.81
78.86
82.32
90.82
102.02
93.12
105.92
103.74
110.45
108.86
100.14
2012
93.60
113.72
94.59
107.92
104.92
107.45
106.45
123.87
98.57
98.72
91.01
88.44
96.17
101.41
96.67
90.42
91.03
98.68
98.80
96.61
82.61
89.71
123.98
102.55
80.28
103.79
92.01
97.30
137.97
78.98
99.67
106.78
95.92
2013
93.83
108.66
92.42
96.31
100.97
99.35
103.47
110.15
102.51
90.96
105.53
84.15
91.11
81.72
91.87
94.46
88.71
93.25
90.75
23.38
86.18
93.97
121.46
96.84
97.31
90.09
80.81
93.90
117.51
71.26
86.21
89.94
97.30
91
Universitas Sumatera Utara