Deteksi Ilusi Fiskal Kabupaten Kota di Provinsi Sumareta Utara (Pengujian Perilaku Asimetris Pemerintah Daerah Dalam Merespon Dana Perimbangan)
LAMPIRAN
Lampiran 1
Hasil Regression Model GLS FIXED EFFECT (FEM)
Dependent Variable: BD?
Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section weights)
Date: 01/01/11 Time: 05:56
Sample: 2010 2013
Included observations: 4
Cross-sections included: 31
Total pool (unbalanced) observations: 123
Linear estimation after one-step weighting matrix
Variable
Coefficient
C
PD?
DAU?
DBH?
HCT?
Fixed Effects
(Cross)
_NIAS—C
_MANDAILINGN
ATAL—C
_TAPANULISELA
TAN—C
_TAPANULITENG
AH—C
_TAPANULIUTAR
A—C
_TOBASAMOSIR
—C
_LABUHANBATU
—C
_ASAHAN—C
_SIMALUNGUN—
C
_KARO--C
_DELISERDANG
—C
_LANGKAT--C
_NIASSELATAN—
C
_HUMBANGHASU
2374930
0.000131
0.817756
0.000255
-0.000154
Std. Error t-Statistic
Prob.
502101.7
0.000221
0.043293
0.000325
0.000166
0.0000
0.5547
0.0000
0.4336
0.8180
4.729979
0.593043
18.88877
0.786636
0.550346
-171837.6
-101407.1
-94829.98
-83735.26
-75794.98
-89918.52
-42643.41
-43709.01
-38404.67
-109961.5
36377.45
-32776.77
-76305.28
2842841.
54
Universitas Sumatera Utara
NDUTAN—C
_PAKPAKBHARA
T--C
_SAMOSIR--C
_SERDANGBEDA
GAI--C
_BATUBARA--C
_PALUTA--C
_PADANGLAWAS
--C
_LABUSEL--C
_NIASUTARA--C
_NIASBARAT--C
_SIBOLGA--C
_TANJUNGBALAI
--C
_PEMATANGSIAN
TAR--C
_TEBINGTINGGI
—C
_MEDAN--C
_BINJAI--C
_PADANGSIDIMP
UAN--C
_GUNUNGSITOLI
—C
-173300.2
-140975.5
-55033.10
-112732.5
-146209.1
-124410.1
-118058.5
242348.8
90555.25
-161204.0
-144033.9
-80663.66
-105055.4
234656.3
-93385.98
-126108.6
-193574.3
Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
Weighted Statistics
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.837531
0.981222
84901.09
188.5028
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Sum squared resid
Durbin-Watson stat
26222912
13091070
6.3472411
1.280043
Unweighted Statistics
R-squared
Sum squared resid
0.837531
1.962512
Mean dependent var
Durbin-Watson stat
11858173
1.650102
55
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 2
Hasil Regression Model GLS RA
NDOM EFFECT (REM)
Dependent Variable: BD?
Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section random effects)
Date: 01/01/11 Time: 05:57
Sample: 2010 2013
Included observations: 4
Cross-sections included: 31
Total pool (unbalanced) observations: 123
Swamy and Arora estimator of component variances
Variable
Coefficient
C
PD?
DAU?
DBH?
HCT?
Random Effects
(Cross)
_NIAS--C
_MANDAILINGN
ATAL--C
_TAPANULISELA
TAN--C
_TAPANULITENG
AH--C
_TAPANULIUTAR
A--C
_TOBASAMOSIR-C
_LABUHANBATU
--C
_ASAHAN--C
_SIMALUNGUN-C
_KARO--C
_DELISERDANG-C
_LANGKAT--C
_NIASSELATAN-C
_HUMBANGHASU
NDUTAN--C
7626243.
0.000249
0.364733
0.001488
-0.986455
Std. Error
t-Statistic
1488222. 5.124400
0.000779 0.320349
0.127575 2.858961
0.000765 1.946003
0.000666 -0.230569
Prob.
0.0000
0.7493
0.0050
0.0540
0.5835
-267588.9
-63377.64
-92689.77
-100065.0
-59184.61
-126428.7
-48475.99
15704.55
89169.25
-153565.0
206031.6
95909.92
-102717.4
2720661.
56
Universitas Sumatera Utara
_PAKPAKBHARA
T--C
_SAMOSIR--C
_SERDANGBEDA
GAI--C
_BATUBARA--C
_PALUTA--C
_PADANGLAWAS
--C
_LABUSEL--C
_NIASUTARA--C
_NIASBARAT--C
_SIBOLGA--C
_TANJUNGBALAI
--C
_PEMATANGSIAN
TAR--C
_TEBINGTINGGI-C
_MEDAN--C
_BINJAI--C
_PADANGSIDIMP
UAN--C
_GUNUNGSITOLI-C
-290221.1
-190415.7
-9710.769
-116924.7
-194176.9
-181936.6
-168134.9
89987.65
-169048.3
-228913.8
-218936.4
-85959.94
-169179.7
415758.9
-105080.8
-162031.5
-328459.0
Effects Specification
S.D.
Cross-section random
Idiosyncratic random
475482.2
135478.2
Rho
0.9249
0.0751
Weighted Statistics
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.986455
0.052692
140002.0
2.696494
0.034094
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Sum squared resid
Durbin-Watson stat
1680071.
166729.1
2.314512
2.294726
Unweighted Statistics
R-squared
Sum squared resid
0.061503
2.893213
Mean dependent var
Durbin-Watson stat
11858173
0.102324
57
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 3
Uji Hausman Test
Correlated Random Effects - Hausman Test
Pool: JULI
Test cross-section random effects
Chi-Sq.
Statistic Chi-Sq. d.f.
Test Summary
Cross-section random
5.255495
Prob.
4
0.2621
Random Var(Diff.)
Prob.
Cross-section random effects test comparisons:
Variable
PD?
DAU?
DBH?
HCT?
Fixed
0.000472 0.000249
0.335622 0.364733
0.001600 0.001488
-0.000046 -0.986455
0.000000
0.001336
0.000000
0.000000
0.3359
0.4257
0.3625
0.2080
t-Statistic
Prob.
Cross-section random effects test equation:
Dependent Variable: BD?
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 01/01/11 Time: 05:58
Sample: 2010 2013
Included observations: 4
Cross-sections included: 31
Total pool (unbalanced) observations: 123
Variable
Coefficient
C
PD?
DAU?
DBH?
HCT?
7927723.
0.000472
0.335622
0.001600
-4.613205
Std. Error
1546083. 5.127618
0.000812 0.580813
0.132707 2.529036
0.000775 2.066215
0.000672 -0.068696
0.0000
0.5629
0.0132
0.0417
0.9454
Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
0.987609
0.927367
135478.2
Mean dependent var 11858173
S.D. dependent var
502693.3
Akaike info criterion 26.70527
58
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
1.622112
-1607.374
46.81418
0.000000
Schwarz criterion
27.50548
Hannan-Quinn criter. 27.03031
Durbin-Watson stat
2.284726
Lampiran 4
Data Realisasi Pendapatan Asli Daerah (PAD) Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi
(Milyar Rupiah)
Kabupaten/Kota
2010
2011
2012
2013
Nias
23,946,293,045
18,943,904,322
30,531,670,978
44,726,140,940
Mandailing natal
Tapanuli Selatan
Tapanuli Tengah
Tapanuli Utara
Toba Samosir
Labuhan Batu
Asahan
Simalungun
Dairi
Karo
Deli Serdang
Langkat
Nias Selatan
Humbang Hasundutan
Pakpak Bharat
Samosir
Serdang Bedagai
Batubara
Padang Lawas Utara
Padang Lawas
Labuhanbatu Selatan
Labuhanbatu Utara
Nias Utara
Nias Barat
Silboga
11,825,857,863
30,496,787,001
13,371,779,335
15,433,009,546
11,988,553,566
38,532,205,269
25,982,186,358
45,255,604,121
19,835,722,474
39,594,659,822
120,537,227,592
31,357,008,434
10,276,243,224
10,007,220,641
4,533,364,577
11,813,219,103
22,093,187,209
9,270,392,493
5,317,205,097
12,262,144,676
8,371,926,407
11,890,474,728
1,905,120,946
958,747,799
15,118,409,482
27,525,847,376
57,463,805,226
18,209,682,593
36,063,155,708
14,117,728,012
50,958,558,912
31,844,327,602
42,543,353,964
17,673,471,407
35,372,329,911
213,791,544,828
34,540,642,904
23,030,719,094
12,870,031,745
6,306,028,983
14,201,578,951
35,894,399,483
13,240,860,819
8,728,414,451
7,628,252,033
17,081,271,911
10,518,250,179
6,655,233,082
2,761,470,685
21,663,389,950
29,821,669,770
56,160,143,106
21,136,802,117
34,023,120,252
16,542,682,535
59,439,168,712
37,894,587,647
61,246,499,256
20,911,510,364
41,242,973,174
291,017,501,163
129,242,580,780
15,592,080,806
17,901,926,972
6,353,111,715
17,459,630,442
39,274,569,799
16,558,177,253
12,798,137,843
9,881,176,851
18,976,643,017
18,971,116,518
8,990,037,382
5,460,766,342
26,698,353,730
47,261,409,409
69,220,483,496
23,210,742,292
37,954,419,651
19,803,160,418
49,784,550,240
53,691,705,753
97,914,775,900
29,933,428,377
46,342,693,861
328,348,147,362
65,521,499,189
32,087,688,050
17,632,873,685
9,080,676,936
26,661,345,261
50,371,732,819
27,761,999,043
15,804,225,377
23,140,067,441
26,701,972,210
25,651,299,857
8,857,118,964
7,223,690,778
29,457,629,416
59
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Tanjung Balai
Pematang Siantar
Tebing Tinggi
Medan
Binjai
Padang Sidempuan
Gunung Sitoli
24,126,011,465
25,910,942,909
26,272,468,555
588,941,453,691
18,832,884,480
14,602,383,887
2,344,943,441
27,089,059,681
44,792,749,488
32,738,790,020
995,072,572,141
48,178,078,782
21,465,271,347
6,051,302,346
27,702,368,427
49,915,366,002
47,330,983,758
1,147,901,461,607
61,246,499,256
23,622,308,246
9,329,679,343
31,920,753,948
61,357,963,445
53,199,538,064
1,206,169,709,147
97,914,775,900
35,018,175,219
10,382,482,568
Lampiran 5
Data Realisasi Dana Alokasi Umum (DAU) Kabupaten/Kota
di Provinsi Sumatera UtaraTahun 2010-2013 (Milyar Rupiah)
Kabupaten/Kota
Nias
Mandailing natal
Tapanuli Selatan
Tapanuli Tengah
Tapanuli Utara
Toba Samosir
Labuhan Batu
Asahan
Simalungun
Dairi
Karo
Deli Serdang
Langkat
Nias Selatan
2010
265,217,573,360
398,482,296,000
334,737,772,000
313,957,675,000
369,275,117,000
280,449,853,000
315,309,299,000
479,299,307,000
644,610,865,000
336,864,702,000
441,302,317,000
793,141,685,000
655,701,432,800
277,887,323,000
2011
265,217,572,360
455,393,393,000
375,893,846,000
343,731,494,000
405,822,524,429
310,252,416,000
367,737,566,342
523,561,849,000
696,225,292,000
372,373,356,825
441,566,566,000
888,557,245,000
736,887,815,640
318,920,943,000
2012
289,608,144,000
541,106,638,000
454,322,254,000
422,611,672,000
487,345,532,000
387,623,169,000
461,644,282,000
628,974,980,000
865,405,855,000
451,176,116,000
546,294,802,000
1,100,013,616,000
847,503,037,000
378,605,613,000
2013
336,470,399,000
625,543,432,000
517,342,688,000
491,010,818,000
552,463,211,000
423,292,453,000
520,457,519,000
733,671,988,000
977,808,611,000
512,477,041,000
625,822,348,000
1,260,755,135,000
982,658,132,000
422,944,097,000
Humbang Hasundutan
279,893,022,000
313,431,176,000
376,847,178,000
440,919,622,000
Pakpak Bharat
Samosir
Serdang Bedagai
Batubara
Padang Lawas Utara
Padang Lawas
167,780,345,000
243,041,606,000
420,258,696,700
385,586,034,000
243,969,546,000
241,106,688,000
198,239,174,000
282,988,294,000
458,160,308,000
385,883,017,000
262,539,422,000
249,496,791,000
232,990,274,000
331,412,601,000
554,245,457,000
452,227,480,000
348,056,278,000
331,754,392,000
273,598,951,000
384,760,680,000
628,900,240,000
517,734,102,000
387,954,949,000
371,650,111,000
Labuhanbatu Selatan
249,091,013,000
266,922,749,000
334,512,284,000
400,566,653,000
60
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Labuhanbatu Utara
Nias Utara
Nias Barat
Silboga
Tanjung Balai
Pematang Siantar
Tebing Tinggi
Medan
Binjai
Padang Sidempuan
Gunung Sitoli
346,404,972,000
108,563,262,000
63,068,373,000
227,216,241,600
241,921,536,000
313,941,731,000
228,057,807,000
846,541,452,400
293,536,658,000
270,129,118,000
95,768,225,000
346,684,689,000
231,764,690,000
193,616,447,000
248,405,548,000
275,525,468,000
352,525,649,000
261,948,729,000
1,066,353,555,440
336,779,454,000
308,014,507,000
251,728,688,000
400,601,985,000
267,283,187,000
227,860,916,000
292,873,107,000
313,729,707,000
429,632,177,000
307,635,669,000
1,153,789,320,000
416,965,216,000
364,923,284,000
305,726,000,000
457,714,720,000
294,071,932,000
251,631,634,000
338,507,471,000
369,246,576,000
492,115,399,000
368,586,756,000
1,270,244,794,000
477,553,537,000
423,251,346,000
356,042,987,000
Lampiran 6
Data Realisasi Dana Bagi Hasil (DBH) Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi
Sumatera Utara Tahun 2010-2013
(Milyar Rupiah)
Kabupaten/Kota
Nias
Mandailing natal
Tapanuli Selatan
Tapanuli Tengah
Tapanuli Utara
Toba Samosir
Labuhan Batu
Asahan
Simalungun
Dairi
Karo
Deli Serdang
Langkat
Nias Selatan
Humbang Hasundutan
Pakpak Bharat
Samosir
Serdang Bedagai
2010
9,127,725,000
39,988,057,088
36,684,559,163
30,439,386,392
28,011,295,221
27,499,489,860
50,228,338,526
61,444,328,450
62,942,551,678
28,986,091,668
34,621,589,345
146,599,782,732
137,445,206,941
25,365,467,717
28,573,493,481
24,717,204,224
17,876,676,542
54,058,531,108
2011
11,547,453,198
35,651,324,849
30,544,942,672
25,666,732,395
25,788,562,258
18,543,976,862
46,785,533,114
54,953,826,235
58,432,376,141
27,204,216,088
31,448,670,465
108,270,209,250
137,812,564,561
26,600,297,158
29,155,800,194
23,524,648,198
15,653,056,028
48,610,349,587
2012
13,474,672,964
42,074,614,263
39,730,432,660
35,777,117,224
30,387,273,913
10,546,826,257
54,179,572,635
57,731,318,062
65,185,896,461
27,352,940,639
30,420,892,001
72,059,714,607
156,839,383,030
28,485,970,255
33,378,873,690
23,937,864,238
21,542,247,952
52,173,934,040
2013
13,934,683,321
38,094,758,481
39,793,149,268
29,538,847,747
29,306,489,918
29,934,067,111
50,834,309,647
65,080,516,468
60,525,757,122
26,543,641,065
30,126,517,887
305,271,905,329
169,455,342,253
25,297,106,389
27,314,424,449
23,253,685,387
22,829,863,294
45,267,322,786
61
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Batubara
507,735,000
27,290,973,742
28,100,566,189
37,134,469,460
Padang Lawas Utara
30,532,402,764
30,498,573,419
30,861,970,15
29,970,451,785
Padang Lawas
34,172,459,655
27,196,358,400
36,519,005,068
40,194,093,790
Labuhanbatu Selatan
51,794,131,671
48,172,886,285
53,049,624,339
56,839,085,263
Labuhanbatu Utara
29,878,410,374
36,821,724,925
38,012,918,270
35,305,107,809
Nias Utara
Nias Barat
Silboga
Tanjung Balai
Pematang Siantar
272,478,401.003
8,641,413,627
21,459,790,766
18,617,690,893
28,893,910,180
11,053,337,908
9,607,603,929
19,786,320,335
16,617,286,882
26,289,467,326
14,677,083,049
13,679,975,385
21,271,435,914
18,834,267,833
36,446,552,650
12,634,625,175
9,931,903,187
20,314,797,636
20,662,436,176
26,225,847,040
Tebing Tinggi
25,179,049,935
19,998,085,793
24,897,504,525
22,603,350,544
Medan
Binjai
Padang Sidempuan
Gunung Sitoli
374,026,589,767
334,604,231,426
26,428,984,994
12,694,065,859
274,493,581,754
39,788,887,998
23,994,089,924
10,622,292,350
197,098,179,192
41,334,651,724
32,822,219,830
4,435,726,739
174,054,636,586
33,599,444,362
25,797,109,529
13,248,308,888
Lampiran 7
Laju Perkembangan Belanja Daerah menurut Kabupaten/Kota dalam
(Miliyar Rupiah) di Provinsi Sumatera Utara pada tahun 2010-2013
Kabupaten/Kota
2010
2011
2012
2013
Nias
Mandailing natal
Tapanuli Selatan
Tapanuli Tengah
Tapanuli Utara
Toba Samosir
Labuhanbatu
Asahan
Simalungun
Dairi
Karo
315,353,839,011
602,563,533,412
472,067,567,732
434,505,432,624
548,166,791,560
462,560,212,959
599,477,429,268
713,231,010,913
1,016,394,859,467
487,883,816,871
628,890,802,454
406,403,024,909
650,263,316,991
554,348,545,417
544,321,692,514
705,123,140,595
479,662,453,929
632,347,460,841
889,574,470,458
1,088,622,687,483
535,857,675,655
675,614,384,795
404,093,407,445
765,109,821,478
676,023,654,714
680,016,226,473
737,700,051,049
619,897,003,865
760,581,998,796
1,037,633,546,450
1,378,042,599,884
492,052,242,441
750,398,279,122
476,487,660,034
850,556,308,683
842,846,295,842
861,257,508,873
834,384,699,583
645,159,251,733
827,146,775,327
1,143,614,491,115
1,432,130,758,218
694,246,838,536
901,675,564,724
Deli Serdang
1,333,248,401,822
1,654,873,747,938
1,826,070,426,059
2,034,622,488,868
967,881,060,777
1,063,869,134,063
1,329,229,102,792
1,536,811,928,028
Langkat
62
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Nias Selatan
465,251,237,439
479,421,889,590
621,171,486,118
669,036,597,703
Humbang Hasundutan
Pakpak Bharat
Samosir
393,014,475,016
231,573,004,143
367,805,497,569
432,517,402,736
318,568,754,148
431,142,832,097
511,537,853,879
296,781,857,912
415,012,206,460
605,789,787,843
381,852,026,957
522,227,935,549
Serdang Bedagai
666,468,396,241
731,773,294,426
833,559,067,726
982,962,075,740
Batubara
533,854,269,993
558,737,287,208
641,952,160,816
760,743,078,670
Padang Lawas Utara
304,464,356,527
416,234,576,099
571,471,637,184
588,852,483,907
Padang Lawas
380,148,424,392
416,234,576,099
439,833,949,611
504,166,349,741
Labuhanbatu Selatan
315,584,167,118
429,131,382,169
438,876,267,201
725,242,663,998
5,022,540,281
539,133,180,282
678,113,688,299
766,421,207,103
Nias Utara
1,396,620,675,600
1,749,848,684,724
335,400,739,586
Nias Barat
1,682,863,255,708
257,203,207,002
275,441,231,743
358,643,130,290
Silboga
291,699,218,349
368,638,103,891
414,040,749,412
450,894,422,402
Tanjungbalai
338,243,925,602
393,778,674,064
446,140,831,521
472,459,785,942
Pematangsiantar
499,631,564,449
564,819,922,154
639,607,159,845
741,073,062,641
Tebing Tinggi
315,430,692,624
439,094,659,348
479,585,196,047
584,572,435,995
2,235,195,758,724
3,041,037,853,628
3,021,172,391,041
3,224,449,048,408
418,220,391,835
356,260,243,037
136,058,576,418
546,497,391,346
463,524,730,418
343,828,336,582
650,087,241,200
527,246,070,030
401,324,408,976
702,167,562,649
614,899,498,099
442,554,279,556
Labuhanbatu Utara
Medan
Binjai
Padangsidimpuan
Gunungsitoli
442,082,330,985
Lampiran 8
Data Realisasi Harfhindal Consentration Taxes Kabupaten/kota di Provinsi
Sumatera Utara Tahun 2010-2013 (persen)
Kabupaten/Kota
Nias
Mandailing natal
Tapanuli Selatan
Tapanuli Tengah
Tapanuli Utara
Toba Samosir
Labuhanbatu
Asahan
HCT 2010
44.54
21.14
20.09
5.79
12.47
21.04
19.83
HCT 2011
9.53
20.01
8.23
15.58
65.11
16.08
31.48
21.71
HCT 2012
44.63
41.15
12.92
3.07
25.12
3.77
22.83
21.55
HCT 2013
101
30.29
13.42
2.29
24.18
5.5
5.1
14.4
63
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Simalungun
Dairi
Karo
Deli Serdang
Langkat
Nias Selatan
Humbang Hasundutan
Pakpak Bharat
Samosir
Serdang Bedagai
Batubara
Padang Lawas Utara
Padang Lawas
Labuhanbatu Selatan
Labuhanbatu Utara
Nias Utara
Nias Barat
Silboga
Tanjungbalai
Pematangsiantar
Tebing Tinggi
Medan
Binjai
Padangsidimpuan
Gunungsitoli
92.78
22.28
21.49
15.47
20.69
21.1
8.81
6.4
17.35
8.65
22.36
22.35
3.22
3.55
60.56
20.24
14.25
42.69
51.92
7.96
27.59
521
9.87
18.38
27.84
19.41
11.73
5.71
10.82
5.36
24.81
6.88
6.87
7.66
5.54
8.91
4.12
1.24
55.97
16.82
43.99
19.69
29.88
10.5
25.47
20.34
6.63
28.77
30.37
22.08
4.13
67.05
11.47
9.28
13.9
17.62
2.97
4.18
4.26
3.21
4.64
3.51
10.19
33.2
11.19
26.3
11.16
12.22
5.29
12.62
2.35
10.49
52.73
19.91
18.04
21.34
18.52
13.11
11.73
12.58
66.31
5.16
4.61
15.79
3.1
4.3
1.93
4.68
51.48
14.68
38.56
5.56
18.34
17.27
36.87
1.85
64
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 1
Hasil Regression Model GLS FIXED EFFECT (FEM)
Dependent Variable: BD?
Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section weights)
Date: 01/01/11 Time: 05:56
Sample: 2010 2013
Included observations: 4
Cross-sections included: 31
Total pool (unbalanced) observations: 123
Linear estimation after one-step weighting matrix
Variable
Coefficient
C
PD?
DAU?
DBH?
HCT?
Fixed Effects
(Cross)
_NIAS—C
_MANDAILINGN
ATAL—C
_TAPANULISELA
TAN—C
_TAPANULITENG
AH—C
_TAPANULIUTAR
A—C
_TOBASAMOSIR
—C
_LABUHANBATU
—C
_ASAHAN—C
_SIMALUNGUN—
C
_KARO--C
_DELISERDANG
—C
_LANGKAT--C
_NIASSELATAN—
C
_HUMBANGHASU
2374930
0.000131
0.817756
0.000255
-0.000154
Std. Error t-Statistic
Prob.
502101.7
0.000221
0.043293
0.000325
0.000166
0.0000
0.5547
0.0000
0.4336
0.8180
4.729979
0.593043
18.88877
0.786636
0.550346
-171837.6
-101407.1
-94829.98
-83735.26
-75794.98
-89918.52
-42643.41
-43709.01
-38404.67
-109961.5
36377.45
-32776.77
-76305.28
2842841.
54
Universitas Sumatera Utara
NDUTAN—C
_PAKPAKBHARA
T--C
_SAMOSIR--C
_SERDANGBEDA
GAI--C
_BATUBARA--C
_PALUTA--C
_PADANGLAWAS
--C
_LABUSEL--C
_NIASUTARA--C
_NIASBARAT--C
_SIBOLGA--C
_TANJUNGBALAI
--C
_PEMATANGSIAN
TAR--C
_TEBINGTINGGI
—C
_MEDAN--C
_BINJAI--C
_PADANGSIDIMP
UAN--C
_GUNUNGSITOLI
—C
-173300.2
-140975.5
-55033.10
-112732.5
-146209.1
-124410.1
-118058.5
242348.8
90555.25
-161204.0
-144033.9
-80663.66
-105055.4
234656.3
-93385.98
-126108.6
-193574.3
Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
Weighted Statistics
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.837531
0.981222
84901.09
188.5028
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Sum squared resid
Durbin-Watson stat
26222912
13091070
6.3472411
1.280043
Unweighted Statistics
R-squared
Sum squared resid
0.837531
1.962512
Mean dependent var
Durbin-Watson stat
11858173
1.650102
55
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 2
Hasil Regression Model GLS RA
NDOM EFFECT (REM)
Dependent Variable: BD?
Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section random effects)
Date: 01/01/11 Time: 05:57
Sample: 2010 2013
Included observations: 4
Cross-sections included: 31
Total pool (unbalanced) observations: 123
Swamy and Arora estimator of component variances
Variable
Coefficient
C
PD?
DAU?
DBH?
HCT?
Random Effects
(Cross)
_NIAS--C
_MANDAILINGN
ATAL--C
_TAPANULISELA
TAN--C
_TAPANULITENG
AH--C
_TAPANULIUTAR
A--C
_TOBASAMOSIR-C
_LABUHANBATU
--C
_ASAHAN--C
_SIMALUNGUN-C
_KARO--C
_DELISERDANG-C
_LANGKAT--C
_NIASSELATAN-C
_HUMBANGHASU
NDUTAN--C
7626243.
0.000249
0.364733
0.001488
-0.986455
Std. Error
t-Statistic
1488222. 5.124400
0.000779 0.320349
0.127575 2.858961
0.000765 1.946003
0.000666 -0.230569
Prob.
0.0000
0.7493
0.0050
0.0540
0.5835
-267588.9
-63377.64
-92689.77
-100065.0
-59184.61
-126428.7
-48475.99
15704.55
89169.25
-153565.0
206031.6
95909.92
-102717.4
2720661.
56
Universitas Sumatera Utara
_PAKPAKBHARA
T--C
_SAMOSIR--C
_SERDANGBEDA
GAI--C
_BATUBARA--C
_PALUTA--C
_PADANGLAWAS
--C
_LABUSEL--C
_NIASUTARA--C
_NIASBARAT--C
_SIBOLGA--C
_TANJUNGBALAI
--C
_PEMATANGSIAN
TAR--C
_TEBINGTINGGI-C
_MEDAN--C
_BINJAI--C
_PADANGSIDIMP
UAN--C
_GUNUNGSITOLI-C
-290221.1
-190415.7
-9710.769
-116924.7
-194176.9
-181936.6
-168134.9
89987.65
-169048.3
-228913.8
-218936.4
-85959.94
-169179.7
415758.9
-105080.8
-162031.5
-328459.0
Effects Specification
S.D.
Cross-section random
Idiosyncratic random
475482.2
135478.2
Rho
0.9249
0.0751
Weighted Statistics
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.986455
0.052692
140002.0
2.696494
0.034094
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Sum squared resid
Durbin-Watson stat
1680071.
166729.1
2.314512
2.294726
Unweighted Statistics
R-squared
Sum squared resid
0.061503
2.893213
Mean dependent var
Durbin-Watson stat
11858173
0.102324
57
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 3
Uji Hausman Test
Correlated Random Effects - Hausman Test
Pool: JULI
Test cross-section random effects
Chi-Sq.
Statistic Chi-Sq. d.f.
Test Summary
Cross-section random
5.255495
Prob.
4
0.2621
Random Var(Diff.)
Prob.
Cross-section random effects test comparisons:
Variable
PD?
DAU?
DBH?
HCT?
Fixed
0.000472 0.000249
0.335622 0.364733
0.001600 0.001488
-0.000046 -0.986455
0.000000
0.001336
0.000000
0.000000
0.3359
0.4257
0.3625
0.2080
t-Statistic
Prob.
Cross-section random effects test equation:
Dependent Variable: BD?
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 01/01/11 Time: 05:58
Sample: 2010 2013
Included observations: 4
Cross-sections included: 31
Total pool (unbalanced) observations: 123
Variable
Coefficient
C
PD?
DAU?
DBH?
HCT?
7927723.
0.000472
0.335622
0.001600
-4.613205
Std. Error
1546083. 5.127618
0.000812 0.580813
0.132707 2.529036
0.000775 2.066215
0.000672 -0.068696
0.0000
0.5629
0.0132
0.0417
0.9454
Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
0.987609
0.927367
135478.2
Mean dependent var 11858173
S.D. dependent var
502693.3
Akaike info criterion 26.70527
58
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
1.622112
-1607.374
46.81418
0.000000
Schwarz criterion
27.50548
Hannan-Quinn criter. 27.03031
Durbin-Watson stat
2.284726
Lampiran 4
Data Realisasi Pendapatan Asli Daerah (PAD) Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi
(Milyar Rupiah)
Kabupaten/Kota
2010
2011
2012
2013
Nias
23,946,293,045
18,943,904,322
30,531,670,978
44,726,140,940
Mandailing natal
Tapanuli Selatan
Tapanuli Tengah
Tapanuli Utara
Toba Samosir
Labuhan Batu
Asahan
Simalungun
Dairi
Karo
Deli Serdang
Langkat
Nias Selatan
Humbang Hasundutan
Pakpak Bharat
Samosir
Serdang Bedagai
Batubara
Padang Lawas Utara
Padang Lawas
Labuhanbatu Selatan
Labuhanbatu Utara
Nias Utara
Nias Barat
Silboga
11,825,857,863
30,496,787,001
13,371,779,335
15,433,009,546
11,988,553,566
38,532,205,269
25,982,186,358
45,255,604,121
19,835,722,474
39,594,659,822
120,537,227,592
31,357,008,434
10,276,243,224
10,007,220,641
4,533,364,577
11,813,219,103
22,093,187,209
9,270,392,493
5,317,205,097
12,262,144,676
8,371,926,407
11,890,474,728
1,905,120,946
958,747,799
15,118,409,482
27,525,847,376
57,463,805,226
18,209,682,593
36,063,155,708
14,117,728,012
50,958,558,912
31,844,327,602
42,543,353,964
17,673,471,407
35,372,329,911
213,791,544,828
34,540,642,904
23,030,719,094
12,870,031,745
6,306,028,983
14,201,578,951
35,894,399,483
13,240,860,819
8,728,414,451
7,628,252,033
17,081,271,911
10,518,250,179
6,655,233,082
2,761,470,685
21,663,389,950
29,821,669,770
56,160,143,106
21,136,802,117
34,023,120,252
16,542,682,535
59,439,168,712
37,894,587,647
61,246,499,256
20,911,510,364
41,242,973,174
291,017,501,163
129,242,580,780
15,592,080,806
17,901,926,972
6,353,111,715
17,459,630,442
39,274,569,799
16,558,177,253
12,798,137,843
9,881,176,851
18,976,643,017
18,971,116,518
8,990,037,382
5,460,766,342
26,698,353,730
47,261,409,409
69,220,483,496
23,210,742,292
37,954,419,651
19,803,160,418
49,784,550,240
53,691,705,753
97,914,775,900
29,933,428,377
46,342,693,861
328,348,147,362
65,521,499,189
32,087,688,050
17,632,873,685
9,080,676,936
26,661,345,261
50,371,732,819
27,761,999,043
15,804,225,377
23,140,067,441
26,701,972,210
25,651,299,857
8,857,118,964
7,223,690,778
29,457,629,416
59
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Tanjung Balai
Pematang Siantar
Tebing Tinggi
Medan
Binjai
Padang Sidempuan
Gunung Sitoli
24,126,011,465
25,910,942,909
26,272,468,555
588,941,453,691
18,832,884,480
14,602,383,887
2,344,943,441
27,089,059,681
44,792,749,488
32,738,790,020
995,072,572,141
48,178,078,782
21,465,271,347
6,051,302,346
27,702,368,427
49,915,366,002
47,330,983,758
1,147,901,461,607
61,246,499,256
23,622,308,246
9,329,679,343
31,920,753,948
61,357,963,445
53,199,538,064
1,206,169,709,147
97,914,775,900
35,018,175,219
10,382,482,568
Lampiran 5
Data Realisasi Dana Alokasi Umum (DAU) Kabupaten/Kota
di Provinsi Sumatera UtaraTahun 2010-2013 (Milyar Rupiah)
Kabupaten/Kota
Nias
Mandailing natal
Tapanuli Selatan
Tapanuli Tengah
Tapanuli Utara
Toba Samosir
Labuhan Batu
Asahan
Simalungun
Dairi
Karo
Deli Serdang
Langkat
Nias Selatan
2010
265,217,573,360
398,482,296,000
334,737,772,000
313,957,675,000
369,275,117,000
280,449,853,000
315,309,299,000
479,299,307,000
644,610,865,000
336,864,702,000
441,302,317,000
793,141,685,000
655,701,432,800
277,887,323,000
2011
265,217,572,360
455,393,393,000
375,893,846,000
343,731,494,000
405,822,524,429
310,252,416,000
367,737,566,342
523,561,849,000
696,225,292,000
372,373,356,825
441,566,566,000
888,557,245,000
736,887,815,640
318,920,943,000
2012
289,608,144,000
541,106,638,000
454,322,254,000
422,611,672,000
487,345,532,000
387,623,169,000
461,644,282,000
628,974,980,000
865,405,855,000
451,176,116,000
546,294,802,000
1,100,013,616,000
847,503,037,000
378,605,613,000
2013
336,470,399,000
625,543,432,000
517,342,688,000
491,010,818,000
552,463,211,000
423,292,453,000
520,457,519,000
733,671,988,000
977,808,611,000
512,477,041,000
625,822,348,000
1,260,755,135,000
982,658,132,000
422,944,097,000
Humbang Hasundutan
279,893,022,000
313,431,176,000
376,847,178,000
440,919,622,000
Pakpak Bharat
Samosir
Serdang Bedagai
Batubara
Padang Lawas Utara
Padang Lawas
167,780,345,000
243,041,606,000
420,258,696,700
385,586,034,000
243,969,546,000
241,106,688,000
198,239,174,000
282,988,294,000
458,160,308,000
385,883,017,000
262,539,422,000
249,496,791,000
232,990,274,000
331,412,601,000
554,245,457,000
452,227,480,000
348,056,278,000
331,754,392,000
273,598,951,000
384,760,680,000
628,900,240,000
517,734,102,000
387,954,949,000
371,650,111,000
Labuhanbatu Selatan
249,091,013,000
266,922,749,000
334,512,284,000
400,566,653,000
60
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Labuhanbatu Utara
Nias Utara
Nias Barat
Silboga
Tanjung Balai
Pematang Siantar
Tebing Tinggi
Medan
Binjai
Padang Sidempuan
Gunung Sitoli
346,404,972,000
108,563,262,000
63,068,373,000
227,216,241,600
241,921,536,000
313,941,731,000
228,057,807,000
846,541,452,400
293,536,658,000
270,129,118,000
95,768,225,000
346,684,689,000
231,764,690,000
193,616,447,000
248,405,548,000
275,525,468,000
352,525,649,000
261,948,729,000
1,066,353,555,440
336,779,454,000
308,014,507,000
251,728,688,000
400,601,985,000
267,283,187,000
227,860,916,000
292,873,107,000
313,729,707,000
429,632,177,000
307,635,669,000
1,153,789,320,000
416,965,216,000
364,923,284,000
305,726,000,000
457,714,720,000
294,071,932,000
251,631,634,000
338,507,471,000
369,246,576,000
492,115,399,000
368,586,756,000
1,270,244,794,000
477,553,537,000
423,251,346,000
356,042,987,000
Lampiran 6
Data Realisasi Dana Bagi Hasil (DBH) Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi
Sumatera Utara Tahun 2010-2013
(Milyar Rupiah)
Kabupaten/Kota
Nias
Mandailing natal
Tapanuli Selatan
Tapanuli Tengah
Tapanuli Utara
Toba Samosir
Labuhan Batu
Asahan
Simalungun
Dairi
Karo
Deli Serdang
Langkat
Nias Selatan
Humbang Hasundutan
Pakpak Bharat
Samosir
Serdang Bedagai
2010
9,127,725,000
39,988,057,088
36,684,559,163
30,439,386,392
28,011,295,221
27,499,489,860
50,228,338,526
61,444,328,450
62,942,551,678
28,986,091,668
34,621,589,345
146,599,782,732
137,445,206,941
25,365,467,717
28,573,493,481
24,717,204,224
17,876,676,542
54,058,531,108
2011
11,547,453,198
35,651,324,849
30,544,942,672
25,666,732,395
25,788,562,258
18,543,976,862
46,785,533,114
54,953,826,235
58,432,376,141
27,204,216,088
31,448,670,465
108,270,209,250
137,812,564,561
26,600,297,158
29,155,800,194
23,524,648,198
15,653,056,028
48,610,349,587
2012
13,474,672,964
42,074,614,263
39,730,432,660
35,777,117,224
30,387,273,913
10,546,826,257
54,179,572,635
57,731,318,062
65,185,896,461
27,352,940,639
30,420,892,001
72,059,714,607
156,839,383,030
28,485,970,255
33,378,873,690
23,937,864,238
21,542,247,952
52,173,934,040
2013
13,934,683,321
38,094,758,481
39,793,149,268
29,538,847,747
29,306,489,918
29,934,067,111
50,834,309,647
65,080,516,468
60,525,757,122
26,543,641,065
30,126,517,887
305,271,905,329
169,455,342,253
25,297,106,389
27,314,424,449
23,253,685,387
22,829,863,294
45,267,322,786
61
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Batubara
507,735,000
27,290,973,742
28,100,566,189
37,134,469,460
Padang Lawas Utara
30,532,402,764
30,498,573,419
30,861,970,15
29,970,451,785
Padang Lawas
34,172,459,655
27,196,358,400
36,519,005,068
40,194,093,790
Labuhanbatu Selatan
51,794,131,671
48,172,886,285
53,049,624,339
56,839,085,263
Labuhanbatu Utara
29,878,410,374
36,821,724,925
38,012,918,270
35,305,107,809
Nias Utara
Nias Barat
Silboga
Tanjung Balai
Pematang Siantar
272,478,401.003
8,641,413,627
21,459,790,766
18,617,690,893
28,893,910,180
11,053,337,908
9,607,603,929
19,786,320,335
16,617,286,882
26,289,467,326
14,677,083,049
13,679,975,385
21,271,435,914
18,834,267,833
36,446,552,650
12,634,625,175
9,931,903,187
20,314,797,636
20,662,436,176
26,225,847,040
Tebing Tinggi
25,179,049,935
19,998,085,793
24,897,504,525
22,603,350,544
Medan
Binjai
Padang Sidempuan
Gunung Sitoli
374,026,589,767
334,604,231,426
26,428,984,994
12,694,065,859
274,493,581,754
39,788,887,998
23,994,089,924
10,622,292,350
197,098,179,192
41,334,651,724
32,822,219,830
4,435,726,739
174,054,636,586
33,599,444,362
25,797,109,529
13,248,308,888
Lampiran 7
Laju Perkembangan Belanja Daerah menurut Kabupaten/Kota dalam
(Miliyar Rupiah) di Provinsi Sumatera Utara pada tahun 2010-2013
Kabupaten/Kota
2010
2011
2012
2013
Nias
Mandailing natal
Tapanuli Selatan
Tapanuli Tengah
Tapanuli Utara
Toba Samosir
Labuhanbatu
Asahan
Simalungun
Dairi
Karo
315,353,839,011
602,563,533,412
472,067,567,732
434,505,432,624
548,166,791,560
462,560,212,959
599,477,429,268
713,231,010,913
1,016,394,859,467
487,883,816,871
628,890,802,454
406,403,024,909
650,263,316,991
554,348,545,417
544,321,692,514
705,123,140,595
479,662,453,929
632,347,460,841
889,574,470,458
1,088,622,687,483
535,857,675,655
675,614,384,795
404,093,407,445
765,109,821,478
676,023,654,714
680,016,226,473
737,700,051,049
619,897,003,865
760,581,998,796
1,037,633,546,450
1,378,042,599,884
492,052,242,441
750,398,279,122
476,487,660,034
850,556,308,683
842,846,295,842
861,257,508,873
834,384,699,583
645,159,251,733
827,146,775,327
1,143,614,491,115
1,432,130,758,218
694,246,838,536
901,675,564,724
Deli Serdang
1,333,248,401,822
1,654,873,747,938
1,826,070,426,059
2,034,622,488,868
967,881,060,777
1,063,869,134,063
1,329,229,102,792
1,536,811,928,028
Langkat
62
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Nias Selatan
465,251,237,439
479,421,889,590
621,171,486,118
669,036,597,703
Humbang Hasundutan
Pakpak Bharat
Samosir
393,014,475,016
231,573,004,143
367,805,497,569
432,517,402,736
318,568,754,148
431,142,832,097
511,537,853,879
296,781,857,912
415,012,206,460
605,789,787,843
381,852,026,957
522,227,935,549
Serdang Bedagai
666,468,396,241
731,773,294,426
833,559,067,726
982,962,075,740
Batubara
533,854,269,993
558,737,287,208
641,952,160,816
760,743,078,670
Padang Lawas Utara
304,464,356,527
416,234,576,099
571,471,637,184
588,852,483,907
Padang Lawas
380,148,424,392
416,234,576,099
439,833,949,611
504,166,349,741
Labuhanbatu Selatan
315,584,167,118
429,131,382,169
438,876,267,201
725,242,663,998
5,022,540,281
539,133,180,282
678,113,688,299
766,421,207,103
Nias Utara
1,396,620,675,600
1,749,848,684,724
335,400,739,586
Nias Barat
1,682,863,255,708
257,203,207,002
275,441,231,743
358,643,130,290
Silboga
291,699,218,349
368,638,103,891
414,040,749,412
450,894,422,402
Tanjungbalai
338,243,925,602
393,778,674,064
446,140,831,521
472,459,785,942
Pematangsiantar
499,631,564,449
564,819,922,154
639,607,159,845
741,073,062,641
Tebing Tinggi
315,430,692,624
439,094,659,348
479,585,196,047
584,572,435,995
2,235,195,758,724
3,041,037,853,628
3,021,172,391,041
3,224,449,048,408
418,220,391,835
356,260,243,037
136,058,576,418
546,497,391,346
463,524,730,418
343,828,336,582
650,087,241,200
527,246,070,030
401,324,408,976
702,167,562,649
614,899,498,099
442,554,279,556
Labuhanbatu Utara
Medan
Binjai
Padangsidimpuan
Gunungsitoli
442,082,330,985
Lampiran 8
Data Realisasi Harfhindal Consentration Taxes Kabupaten/kota di Provinsi
Sumatera Utara Tahun 2010-2013 (persen)
Kabupaten/Kota
Nias
Mandailing natal
Tapanuli Selatan
Tapanuli Tengah
Tapanuli Utara
Toba Samosir
Labuhanbatu
Asahan
HCT 2010
44.54
21.14
20.09
5.79
12.47
21.04
19.83
HCT 2011
9.53
20.01
8.23
15.58
65.11
16.08
31.48
21.71
HCT 2012
44.63
41.15
12.92
3.07
25.12
3.77
22.83
21.55
HCT 2013
101
30.29
13.42
2.29
24.18
5.5
5.1
14.4
63
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Simalungun
Dairi
Karo
Deli Serdang
Langkat
Nias Selatan
Humbang Hasundutan
Pakpak Bharat
Samosir
Serdang Bedagai
Batubara
Padang Lawas Utara
Padang Lawas
Labuhanbatu Selatan
Labuhanbatu Utara
Nias Utara
Nias Barat
Silboga
Tanjungbalai
Pematangsiantar
Tebing Tinggi
Medan
Binjai
Padangsidimpuan
Gunungsitoli
92.78
22.28
21.49
15.47
20.69
21.1
8.81
6.4
17.35
8.65
22.36
22.35
3.22
3.55
60.56
20.24
14.25
42.69
51.92
7.96
27.59
521
9.87
18.38
27.84
19.41
11.73
5.71
10.82
5.36
24.81
6.88
6.87
7.66
5.54
8.91
4.12
1.24
55.97
16.82
43.99
19.69
29.88
10.5
25.47
20.34
6.63
28.77
30.37
22.08
4.13
67.05
11.47
9.28
13.9
17.62
2.97
4.18
4.26
3.21
4.64
3.51
10.19
33.2
11.19
26.3
11.16
12.22
5.29
12.62
2.35
10.49
52.73
19.91
18.04
21.34
18.52
13.11
11.73
12.58
66.31
5.16
4.61
15.79
3.1
4.3
1.93
4.68
51.48
14.68
38.56
5.56
18.34
17.27
36.87
1.85
64
Universitas Sumatera Utara