Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk (RALS)

  Dividend yield 3.0% 3.0% 2.8% 2.9%

  EPS growth 24.6%

  Walaupun penambahan ini akan mendongkrak kinerja penjualan pada saat Lebaran, dampak pada saat di luar Lebaran masih perlu pembuktian. Kami perkirakan bahwa konsistensi penambahan konsep lifestyle yang diusung oleh gerai baru RALS baru akan memberikan pengaruh signifikan bagi penjualan dalam jangka panjang.

  Target Harga Rp1.400 Kami menggunakan estimasi forward P/E sebesar 20,9x (1SD di atas rata- rata dua tahun terakhir) sebagai basis metode valuasi. Target harga ini mengimplikasikan P/E 2018E sebesar 21,4x (vs 21,1x saat ini).

  2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E

  Net sales 5,857 5,623 5,717 5,860

  Net sales growth 5.9%

  EBITDA 555 560 601 627 Net profit 409 407 440 451 EPS (IDR) 61 60 65 67

  BVPS (IDR) 496 520 550 579 EBITDA margin 9.5% 10.0% 10.5% 10.7% Net Profit Margin 7.0% 7.2% 7.7% 7.7% ROE

  Di sisi lain, turunnya porsi penjualan barang beli putus juga membuat kinerja margin kotor dan margin laba bersih meningkat masing-masing menjadi 39,6% dan 1,4%. Melihat rencana RALS untuk menaikkan porsi penjualan konsinyasi pada 2018, kami memprediksikan kinerja penjualan bersih tahun ini tidak akan mampu tumbuh signifikan.

  12.2% 11.9% 12.2% 11.9%

  ROA

  8.9% 8.5% 8.8% 8.6%

  ROIC

  9.7% 9.6% 10.1% 10.1%

  P/E 19.7x 19.8x 21.1x 20.6x P/BV 2.4x 2.3x 2.5x 2.4x EV/EBITDA 13.4x 13.1x 13.8x 13.1x DPS (IDR) 36 36 38 40

  Menggenjot Ekspansi Gerai sebelum Lebaran Untuk memasuki musim Lebaran, RALS telah membuka 3 gerai baru dengan konsep lifestyle pada April-Mei. Ketiga gerai tersebut berada di wilayah Jabodetabek, area yang memberikan kontribusi penjualan sebesar 37% dari total penjualan kotor RALS pada 1Q18.

  Peningkatan Porsi Segmen Konsinyasi Menekan Kinerja Penjualan Bersih RALS berhasil menutup 1Q18 dengan mencatatkan penjualan kotor dan laba bersih yang masing-masing sebesar Rp1,52 triliun (+2,5% y-y) dan Rp14,7 miliar (+411% y-y). Namun, porsi penjualan konsinyasi yang naik menjadi 41,2% membuat kinerja penjualan bersih menurun menjadi Rp1,05 triliun (-2,6% y-y).

• 1.4%

  Abs. Ret. 15.0% -4.2% 16.0% 0.7% Rel. Ret. 23.1% 3.0% 27.4%

  Please consider the rating criteria & important disclaimer Company Report | May 16, 2018 Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk (RALS) Ruang Pertumbuhan Terbatas dalam Jangka Pendek Hold Dec 2018 TP (IDR) 1,400 Consensus Price (IDR) 1,420 TP to Consensus Price

  vs. Last Price +1.4% Shares data

  Last Price (IDR) 1,380 Price date as of May 15, 2018 52 wk range (Hi/Lo) 1,500 / 860 Free float 35.0% Outstanding sh.(mn) 7,096 Market Cap (IDR bn) 9,792 Market Cap (USD mn) 693 Avg. Trd Vol - 3M (mn)

  7.8 Avg. Trd Val - 3M (bn)

  10.2 Foreign Ownership 25.2%

  Trade, Services & Investment Retail Bloomberg RALS.IJ Reuters RALS.JK Michael Tjahjadi

• 62 21 797 6202, ext:114 michael@nhsec.co.id

  Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk | Summary (IDR bn)

• -

  4.0% 1.7% 2.5%

• -

  0.5% 8.3% 2.6%

  Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, NHKS Research

  Share Price Performance YTD

  1M

  3M

  12M

• 1.9%

  Sekilas tentang RALS RALS merupakan perusahaan yang bergerak di bidang ritel dan beroperasi di segmen pakaian dan aksesoris melalui department store Ramayana dan segmen barang swalayan melalui supermarket Spar. RALS memiliki 116 gerai yang tersebar di seluruh Indonesia (76 gerai di Pulau Jawa dan 40 gerai di luar Pulau Jawa) dan mengincar konsumen segmen menengah-bawah.

  Untuk mengimbangi kondisi pasar yang lesu, RALS juga menawarkan konsep lifestyle melalui gerai Ramayana Prime dengan bekerjasama dengan F&B tenants, cinema dan specialty shop. Selain itu, RALS juga melakukan kerja sama dengan Lazada, Tokopedia dan Shopee untuk menjangkau segmen e-commerce.

  Industri Ritel Indonesia di ASEAN Indonesia merupakan negara dengan jumlah penduduk terbesar di ASEAN. Hal ini menjadikan Indonesia sebagai tempat yang menguntungkan bagi bisnis ritel. Pasar ritel Indonesia dikuasai oleh LPPF, RALS, MAPI dengan gerai yang tersebar di seluruh Indonesia. Pada 2018, Aprindo menargetkan pertumbuhan bisnis ritel sebesar 9%.

  Kebijakan pemerintah yang mengunci tarif listrik dan harga BBM hingga 2019 pun bisa menjadi katalis pulihnya daya beli masyarakat hingga tahun depan. Industri ritel di pasar ASEAN cenderung lesu, sebagai contoh angka pertumbuhan penjualan negatif di Singapura dan Thailand. Hal ini membuat para pelaku industri ritel di ASEAN harus lebih ketat menekan beban operasional untuk mengimbangi pasar. Namun pada 2017, mayoritas pelaku industri ritel tetap membukukan price-earnings ratio yang tinggi dan ROE dua digit. Di sisi margin, pelaku industri ritel di Indonesia mampu membukukan margin yang lebih tinggi dibanding kompetitornya di ASEAN.

  ASEAN Retailers Market Cap Total Asset Sales Gross Operating Dividend Company ROE P/E P/BV (USD mn) (USD mn) Growth Margin Margin Yield

  LPPF 1,901 399 1.28% 62.5% 23.7% 81.7% 14.0x 10.4x 5.0% RALS 693 360 4.00% 39% 6.7% 12.2% 22.2x 2.6x 2.6%

• MAPI 975 841 15.24% 48% 6.9% 16.4% 21.9x 3.1x 0.5%

  Singapore

• Metro Holdings 717 1,114 15.12% 7% 1% 13.6% 5.0x 0.7x 4.3%

  Malaysia

• Parkson Holdings Bhd 109 2,270 2.07% N/A 3% 7.7% N/A 0.2x N/A

  Thailand

• Robinson PCL 2,188 846 0.34% 25% 1% 16.9% 25.1x 4.1x 2.0%

  Philippines

  SM Investments Corp 21,474 19,205 8.63% 39% 16% 10.4% 33.5x 3.4x 0.9% Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research

  Operational Performance Gross Sales (IDR bn)| 1Q16 - 1Q18 Net Sales by Geography in First Quarters (IDR bn)

  Source: Company, NHKS research Source: Company, NHKS research

  Store Sales Growth (YTD) | 2016 - 2018 Net Profit (IDR bn)| 1Q16 - 1Q18

  Source: Company, NHKS research Source: Company, NHKS research

  Margin Ratios | 1Q17 - 1Q18 Gross Sales by Region | 1Q18

  Source: Company, NHKS research Source: Company, NHKS research

  Multiple Valuation Forward P/E band | Last 2 years Dynamic Forward P/E band | Last 2 years

  Source: NHKS research Source: NHKS research

  Rating and target price Date Rating Target Price Last Price Consensus vs Last Price vs Consensus

  04/04/2018 Hold 1,450 1,310 1,338 +10.7% +8.4% 05/15/2018 Hold 1,400 1,380 1,420 +1.4% 1.4%

• Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research

  Closing and Target Price Analyst Coverage Rating

  Source: Bloomberg Source: NHKS research

  NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia (NHKS) stock ratings

  1. Period: End of year target price

  2. Rating system based on a stock’s absolute return from the date of publication : Greater than +15%

   Buy : -15% to +15%  Hold : Less than -15%  Sell

  Summary of Financials

DISCLAIMER

INCOME STATEMENT BALANCE SHEET

  

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errors, omissions, misstatements, negligence, inaccuracy arising herefrom. All rights reserved by PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia ^{RALS Summary Last Price (IDR) 1,380}

^{Target Price (IDR) 1,400 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E}

^{Rating: Hold ROE 12.2% 11.9% 12.2% 11.9% ROA 8.9% 8.5% 8.8% 8.6% ROIC 9.7% 9.6% 10.1% 10.1% EBITDA/Equity 16.6% 16.4% 16.7% 16.5%}

^{In IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E EBITDA/Assets 12.0% 11.8% 12.0% 11.9%}

^{Net Sales 5,857 5,623 5,717 5,860 Cash Dividend (IDR bn) 242 240 257 269}

^{Growth (% y/y) 6% -4% 2% 3% Dividend Yield (%) 3.0% 3.0% 2.8% 2.9%}

^{COGS (3,655) (3,410) (3,413) (3,497) Payout Ratio (%) 59.2% 59.0% 58.4% 59.5%}

^{Gross Profit 2,203 2,212 2,303 2,363 DER 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x}

^{Gross Margin 38% 39% 40% 40% Net Gearing 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x}

^{Operating Expenses (1,834) (1,836) (1,883) (1,933) LT Debt to Equity 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x}

^{EBIT 368 377 420 430 Capitalization Ratio 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x}

^{EBIT Margin 6% 7% 7% 7% Equity Ratio 0.7x 0.7x 0.7x 0.7x}

^{Depreciation (187) (184) (181) (197) Debt Ratio 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x}

^{EBITDA 555 560 601 627 Financial Leverage 1.4x 1.4x 1.4x 1.4x}

^{EBITDA Margin 9% 10% 11% 11% Current Ratio 2.8x 3.0x 3.2x 3.3x}

^{Interest Cost - - - - Quick Ratio 2.0x 2.2x 2.4x 2.6x}

^{EBT 465 467 507 519 Cash Ratio 0.6x 0.7x 0.9x 0.9x Income Tax (57) (60) (67) (68) Par Value (IDR) 50 50 50}

^{Growth (% y/y) 22% 0% 8% 3% Share Price (IDR) 1,195 1,200 1,380 1,380}

^{50 Net Profit 409 407 440 451 Total Shares (mn) 6,723 6,723 6,723 6,723 Net Profit Margin 7% 7% 8% 8% Market Cap (IDR tn) 8.0 8.1 9.3 9.3 In IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E}

^{Cash 604 752 968 1,051 Price /Earnings 19.7x 19.8x 21.1x 20.6x}

^{Inventories 834 741 792 791 Price /Book Value 2.4x 2.3x 2.5x 2.4x}

^{Other Current Assets 1,341 1,543 1,628 1,830 Price/Sales 1.4x 1.4x 1.6x 1.6x}

^{Total Current Assets 2,831 3,093 3,446 3,729 PE/EPS Growth 0.8x -40.6x 2.5x 8.0x}

^{Net Fixed Assets 1,279 1,235 1,173 1,108 EV/EBITDA 13.4x 13.1x 13.8x 13.1x}

^{Other Non Current Assets 53 80 67 69 EV/EBIT 20.2x 19.4x 19.8x 19.1x}

^{Total Assets 1,816 1,798 1,692 1,637 EV (IDR bn) 7,430 7,315 8,310 8,227}

^{ST Bank loans - - - - Sales CAGR (3-Yr) -0.8% -1.4% 1.1% 0.0%}

^{Payables 904 956 995 1,025 EPS CAGR (3-Yr) 3.4% 6.5% 10.3% 3.4%}

^{Total Current Liabilities 1,009 1,049 1,093 1,121 Basic EPS (IDR) 61 60 65 67 LT Debt - - - - Diluted EPS (IDR) 61 60 65 67 Other Non Current Liab. 301 349 350 356 BVPS (IDR) 496 520 550 579}

^{Total Liabilities 1,310 1,398 1,443 1,477 Sales PS (IDR) 871 836 850 872}

^{Shareholders' Equity 3,337 3,494 3,695 3,889 DPS (IDR) 36.0 35.7 38.2 40.0 In IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E Net Income 409 407 440 451 DCF (IDR bn) Deprec & Amortization 187 184 181 197 NOPAT 323 328 364 374 Chg. In Working Capital 162 261 (92) (173) +Depr./Amor. 187 184 181 197 CFO 757 852 529 476 -CAPEX (135) (140) (122) (130) Capex (135) (140) (122) (130) -Incr. (Decr.) in Working Cap. 162 261 (92) (173) CFI (587) (461) (73) (136) (Unlevered) FCFF 537 633 331 268 Dividends Paid (207) (242) (240) (257) WACC Net Borrowing - - - - Cost of Debt (Tax Adj.) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% CFF (411) (242) (240) (257) Cost of Equity (COE) 10.2% 12.5% 10.0% 12.2% Net Changes in Cash (240) 148 216}

^{83 WACC (%)}

^{10.2% 12.5% 10.0% 12.2% RIM Spread (FROE-COE) (%) 2.1% -0.3% 2.6% 0.0% Residual Income (IDR) 69 (9) 89 Indonesia 1 By Geography % Shareholders % Equity Charge 339 416 351 451 74.8 Ramayana M 55.9 EVA Hong Kong 7.8 HSBC 5.6 Invested Capital (IDR bn) 3,334 3,337 3,494 3,695 United States 5.9 Paulus Tumewu 3.7 ROIC-WACC (%) -0.5% -2.6% 0.4% -2.1% Unknown 4.9 Norges Bank 2.2 EVA (IDR bn) (16) (88) 14 (77)}

  CASH FLOW STATEMENT DCF, RIM & EVA OWNERSHIP PROFITABILITY & STABILITY _{May 15, 2018 Dec 2018 Analyst: Michael Tjahjadi}