Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk (RALS)

Ramayana Lestari Sentosa (RALS) Tbk

  Masih Mengandalkan Cost Control Company Report | Nov 21, 2018 Terkerek oleh Kinerja SSSG September 2018

  Kinerja pendapatan RALS pada 3Q18 tercatat sebesar Rp1,50 triliun (+6,5% y- y), angka pertumbuhan tertinggi sepanjang 2018. Pada 9M18, penjualan kotor Hold RALS tercatat tumbuh menjadi Rp6,68 triliun (+4,5% y-y). Peningkatan top line Dec 2019 TP (IDR) 1,515

  

yang disertai penurunan COGS sebesar 6,5% y-y, mendorong margin laba Consensus Price (IDR) 1,601

  kotor menjadi 29,5% (vs. 26,8% pada 9M17). SSSG RALS pada September TP to Consensus Price -5.3%

  vs. Last Price +14.3%

  2018 terus meningkat menjadi 11%, didorong oleh SSSG Pulau Jawa non- Jabodetabek yang mencapai 12,2%.

  Shares data EBIT segmen

  Strategi pembenahan gerai-gerai swalayan pada 2017 membuat

  Last Price (IDR) 1,325 swalayan terus meningkat menjadi Rp23 miliar (+10,3% q-q). Kinerja ini turut

  Price date as of Nov 19, 2018

  membuat EBIT 3Q18 menjadi Rp2 miliar, berbalik dari posisi rugi Rp47,9 miliar

  52 wk range (Hi/Lo) 1,500 / 925 pada 3Q17. Laba bersih 3Q18 pun turut terkerek menjadi Rp41 miliar. Free float (%)

  36.7 Akan Menambah Dua Gerai pada 4Q18 Outstanding sh.(mn) 7,096

  Pada 4Q18, RALS berencana untuk menambah dua gerai baru di Pulau Jawa

  Market Cap (IDR bn) 9,402

  nonJabodetabek (SSSG September 2018: 12,2%), sekaligus melengkapi 3 gerai

  Market Cap (USD mn) 644

  baru yang dibuka pada 1H18. Di samping itu, RALS juga akan terus

  Avg. Trd Vol - 3M (mn)

  4.3

  meningkatkan margin dengan terus melakukan

  efisiensi beban serta terus Avg. Trd Val - 3M (bn)

  5.5 menjaga beban COGS. Foreign Ownership 31.0%

  Rencana pemerintah untuk meningkatan upah minimum regional (UMR) sebesar 8% pada 2019 disertai dengan beberapa program subsidi pemerintah pun dapat Trade, Services & Investment

  Retail

  memicu perbaikan daya beli konsumen RALS. Namun,

  kenaikan UMR ini juga Bloomberg RALS IJ dapat menekan margin EBIT pada 2019. Selain itu, tren penurunan harga

  Reuters RALS.JK komoditas juga menjadi tantangan RALS, khususnya di luar Pulau Jawa.

  Target Harga Rp1.515 Share Price Performance

  Kami menggunakan estimasi forward P/E sebesar 13,5x (0,3SD di bawah rata- rata 4 tahun terakhir). Target harga ini mengimplikasikan P/E 2019E sebesar 14,7x. Saat ini, RALS diperdagangkan pada P/E 2019E sebesar 12,8x.

  Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk | Summary (IDR bn) 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F

  Gross Sales 8,146 8,496 8,769 9,111

  Gross Sales growth 4.3% 3.2% 3.9%

• -1.1%

  EBITDA 560 768 862 928 Net Profit 407 596 695 759 EPS (IDR)

  60 89 103 113

  EPS growth 46.6% 16.6% 9.2%

• -0.5%

  YTD

  1M

  3M

  12M

  BVPS (IDR) 520 568 627 686

  Abs. Ret. 10.4% 10.9% 7.3% 38.0%

  EBITDA margin 6.9% 9.0% 9.8% 10.2%

  Rel. Ret. 15.9% 8.0% 5.4% 38.8%

  NPM 5.0% 7.0% 7.9% 8.3% ROE 11.9% 16.3% 17.3% 17.2% ROA 8.5% 11.6% 12.5% 12.6% ROIC 9.4% 12.9% 13.6% 13.7% P/E 19.8x 14.9x 12.8x 11.7x P/BV 2.3x 2.3x 2.1x 1.9x

Michael Tjahjadi

  EV/EBITDA 12.9x 9.4x 8.0x 7.1x

• 62 21 797 6202, ext:114

  DPS (IDR)

  40 44 54 59

  michael@nhsec.co.id Dividend yield 3.3% 3.3% 4.1% 4.5%

  Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, NHKS Research Please consider the rating criteria & important disclaimer

  Source: Company, NHKS Research RALS Quarterly Net Sales by Region (IDR bn)

  Source: Company, NHKS Research RALS Quarterly Gross Sales (IDR bn) | 3Q16 - 3Q18

  Margin Ratios | 3Q17 - 3Q18 Source: Company, NHKS Research

  Supermarket Segment’s EBIT (IDR bn) | 3Q16 - 3Q18 Source: Company, NHKS Research

  Performance Highlights RALS Quarterly Net Profit (IDR bn) | 3Q16 - 3Q18

  Source: Company, NHKS Research RALS’ Segment Contribution | 3Q16 - 3Q18

  Source: Company, NHKS Research

  3Q18 review (IDR bn)

  3Q18

  3Q17

  4Q17

  1Q18

  2Q18

  4Q18E Actual Estimate y-y q-q surprise

  Gross Sales 1,409 1,751 1,520 3,661 1,500 1,487 6.5% -59.0% 0.9% 1,815

  2.8% 525

  Gross Profit 388 480 416 1,138 451 439 16.1% -60.4%

  Gross Margin 27.6% 27.4% 27.3% 31.1% 30.1% 29.5% 2.5% 0.6% 28.9%

• 1.0% EBIT (48) 10 (7) 579 2 (5) N/A -99.7% N/A 19

  EBIT Margin -3.4% 0.6% -0.5% 15.8% 0.1% -0.3% 3.5% -15.7% 0.5% 1.0%

  EBITDA (3) 55 37 622 46 39 N/A -92.7% 16.9% 63

  EBITDA Margin -0.2% 3.1% 2.5% 17.0% 3.0% 2.6% 3.2% -13.9% 0.4% 3.5%

Net Profit (1) 39 15 471 41 50 N/A -91.3% -18.0% 69

  Net Margin -0.1% 2.2% 1.0% 12.9% 2.7% 3.4% 2.8% -10.1% -0.6% 3.8% Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research Earnings revision (IDR bn) 2018E 2019F 2020F

  8,496 8,769 9,111

• Revised Gross Sales
>Previous 8,469 8,701 8> -Change 0.3% 0.8% 1.3%

  2,530 2,650 2,748

• Revised Gross Profit
• Previous 2,533 2,605 2,709
• Change -0.1% 1.7% 1.5%
• Revised 29.8% 30.2% 30.2% Gross Margin

  29.9% 29.9% 30.1%

• Previous EBIT -Revised 592 694> -Previous 602 608
• Change -1.6% 14.0% 9.9%

  7.0% 7.9% 8.3%

  EBIT Margin -Revised

• Previous 7.1% 7.0% 7.7% EBITDA -Revised 768 862> -Previous 778 778
• Change -1.3% 10.8% 8.1%

  9.0% 9.8% 10.2%

  EBITDA Margin -Revised

• Previous 9.2% 8.9% 9.5%
• Revised

  Net Profit 596 695 759

• -Previous 632 651 707
• -Change -5.7% 6.7% 7.3%
• Revised 7.0% 7.9% 8.3% Net Margin

  7.5% 7.5% 7.9%

• Previous

  Source: NHKS research

  Sekilas tentang RALS

  RALS merupakan perusahaan yang bergerak di bidang ritel dan beroperasi di segmen pakaian dan aksesoris melalui department

  

store Ramayana dan segmen barang swalayan melalui supermarket Spar. RALS memiliki 119 gerai yang tersebar di seluruh

  Indonesia (79 gerai di Pulau Jawa dan 40 gerai di luar Pulau Jawa) dan mengincar konsumen segmen menengah-bawah. Untuk mengimbangi kondisi sektor ritel yang lesu, RALS juga menawarkan konsep lifestyle melalui gerai Ramayana Prime dengan bekerja sama dengan F&B tenants, cinema dan specialty shop. Selain itu, RALS juga melakukan kerja sama dengan Lazada, Tokopedia dan Shopee untuk menjangkau segmen e-commerce.

  Industri Ritel Indonesia di ASEAN

  Indonesia merupakan negara dengan jumlah penduduk terbesar di ASEAN. Hal ini menjadikan Indonesia sebagai tempat yang menguntungkan bagi bisnis ritel. Pasar ritel Indonesia dikuasai oleh LPPF, RALS, MAPI dengan gerai yang tersebar di seluruh Indonesia. Banyaknya jumlah penduduk segmen menengah-bawah yang tersebar di seluruh Indonesia pun dapat menjadi peluang yang potensial bagi peritel seperti RALS.

  Industri ritel di pasar ASEAN cenderung lesu, sebagai contoh angka pertumbuhan penjualan negatif di Singapura dan Thailand. Hal ini membuat para pelaku industri ritel di ASEAN harus lebih ketat menekan beban operasional untuk mengimbangi pasar. Di sisi margin, pelaku industri ritel di Indonesia mampu membukukan margin yang lebih tinggi dibanding kompetitornya di ASEAN.

  ASEAN Retailers Company Market Revenue Net Profit Net Profit Asset Net ROE P/E Company Cap LTM LTM Growth P/BV (USD mn) Margin LTM LTM (USD mn) (USD mn) (USD mn) LTM Indonesia

  LPPF 897 399 737 136 -0.86% 18.5% 85.6% 6.9x 5.3x RALS 644 360 411 41 36.52% 9.9% 15.7% 15.7x 2.4x MAPI 910 841 1,326 46 91.23% 3.5% 14.0% 22.9x 2.6x

  Singapore

  Metro Holdings 665 1,299 112 132 168.81% 118.4% 10.49% 5.1x 0.6x

  Malaysia

  90 2,219 978 (24) 17.75% N/A 0.2x

• 2.5% -4.30% Parkson Holdings Bhd

  Thailand

  Robinson PCL 2,205 846 823 91 0.33% 11.0% 17.88% 24.6x 4.2x

  Philippines

  SM Investments Corp 21,583 19,205 7,700 678 7.04% 8.8% 10.69% 32.1x 3.3x

  Source: Bloomberg

  Multiple Valuation Forward P/E band | Last 4 years Dynamic Forward P/E band | Last 4 years Source: NHKS research Source: NHKS research Rating and Target Price Update Target Price Revision Date Rating Target Price Last Price Consensus vs Last Price vs Consensus

  04/04/2018 Hold 1,450 (Dec 2018) 1,310 1,338 +10.7% +8.4% 05/15/2018 Hold 1,400 (Dec 2018) 1,380 1,420 +1.4% -1.4%

• 4.9% 09/21/2018 Hold 1,525 (Dec 2019) 1,350 1,306 +13.0% 11/19/2018 Hold 1,515 (Dec 2019) 1,325 1,601 +14.3% -5.3%

  Source: NHKS research, Bloomberg Analyst Coverage Rating Closing and Target Price Source: Bloomberg

  Source: NHKS research

NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia (NHKS) stock ratings

  1. Period: End of year target price

  2. Rating system based on a stock’s absolute return from the date of publication

   Buy : Greater than +15%

   Hold : -15% to +15%  Sell : Less than -15% Summary of Financials

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