PTPP Momen Menerapkan Strategi yang Efektif 20180412 NHKS Company Report (Bahasa)

• 3.1% vs. Last Price +39.0%

  12M

  Abs. Ret. 4.9% -5.8% -7.7%

  5.4% -4.1% -7.0% -21.0%

  Ulasan Kinerja 4Q17 Pada 4Q17, PTPP mencetak pendapatan sebesar Rp7,7 triliun (+37,9% y-y). Pertumbuhan pendapatan pada 4Q17 merupakan yang tertinggi sejak

  1Q14. Kenaikan ini terutama ditopang oleh tren kontrak baru yang melonjak tajam pada 2Q17 dan 3Q17 menjadi masing-masing Rp13,5 triliun dan Rp11,7 triliun. Namun, PTPP hanya mampu mencetak laba bersih sebesar Rp463 miliar (+2,2% y-y) yang dipengaruhi oleh tingginya beban bunga yang mencapai Rp415 miliar.

  Masih Terjaganya Pertumbuhan Kontrak Baru Pada 2017 PTPP berhasil meraih kontrak baru sebesar Rp40,9 triliun (+25,5%). Pertumbuhan ini lebih tinggi dibandingkan pertumbuhan sebesar 20,4% pada 2016. Pada 2018 manajemen menargetkan kontrak baru sebesar Rp49 triliun (+19,8%). Kami melihat bahwa target pertumbuhan kontrak baru di sekitar 20% sangat realistis dan mampu dipertahankan. Pada 1Q18, PTPP telah memperoleh kontrak baru sebesar Rp9,5 triliun yang melonjak 42,4% y-y.

  Mengatur Strategi yang Efektif PTPP menyatakan tidak akan lagi mengerjakan proyek yang bersifat turnkey serta hanya akan mencari kontrak bernilai di atas Rp300 miliar.

  Kami melihat strategi ini sangat tepat dalam mengatasi problem cash flow yang dihadapi konstruksi BUMN dalam mengerjakan proyek. Strategi ini akan memampukan PTPP menjaga ritme pertumbuhan margin.

  Target Harga Rp3.850 Kami menggunakan estimasi forward P/E sebesar 10,5x (rata-rata satu tahun terakhir) sebagai basis metode valuasi kami untuk memperoleh target harga pada Desember 2018. Target harga ini mengimplikasikan P/E 2018E sebesar 13,5x (Vs 9,7x saat ini).

  Shares data

  Buy Dec 2018 TP (IDR) 3,850 Consensus Price (IDR) 3,971 TP to Consensus Price

  Last Price (IDR) 2,770 Price date as of Apr 10, 2018 52 wk range (Hi/Lo) 3,510 / 2,250 Free float (%)

  48.9 Outstanding sh.(mn) 6,200 Market Cap (IDR bn) 17,422 Market Cap (USD mn) 1,265 Avg. Trd Vol - 3M (mn)

  15.12 Avg. Trd Val - 3M (bn)

  45.44 Foreign Ownership 26.3%

  Property Construction Bloomberg

PTPP IJ

  Reuters PTPP.JK Raphon Prima

• 62 21 797 6202, ext:214

  raphon@nhsec.co.id

  1M

  3M

  6.2% 6.8% 6.9% 7.4%

  Please consider the rating criteria & important disclaimer NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia Company Report | Apr 12, 2018 Pembangunan Perumahan Tbk (PTPP) Momen Menerapkan Strategi yang Efektif Pembangunan Perumahan, Tbk | Summary (IDR bn)

  2016/12A 2017/12E 2018/12E 2019/12E

  Revenue 16,459 21,502 25,526 30,785

  Revenue growth 15.8% 30.6% 18.7% 20.6%

  EBITDA 1,983 2,587 3,701 4,289 Net profit 1,020 1,453 1,762 2,264 EPS (IDR) 165 234 284 365

  EPS growth 37.8% 42.5% 21.2% 28.5%

  BVPS (IDR) 1,738 2,297 2,550 2,871 EBITDA margin 12.0% 12.0% 14.5% 13.9% NPM

  ROE

  Share Price Performance YTD

  12.8% 11.6% 11.7% 13.5%

  ROA

  4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.5%

  ROIC

  14.6% 11.3% 11.2% 12.3%

  P/E 23.2x 11.3x 9.7x 7.6x P/BV 2.2x 1.1x 1.1x 1.0x EV/EBITDA 10.9x 7.1x 5.3x 4.9x DPS (IDR)

  50 71 86 110

• 8.9% Rel. Ret.

  Dividend yield 1.3% 2.7% 3.1% 4.0% Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, NHKS Research

  IJM CORP BHD 2,583 4,721 24.4% 10.8% 55.2% 6.2% 17.4x 1.1x SUNWAY CONSTRUCTION 750 464 11.6% 6.6% 24.3% 26.3% 21.1x 5.3x

  Thailand

  GAMUDA BHD 3,268 3,683 8.6% 18.7% 66.8% 9.3% 18.3x 1.7x

  Malaysia

  COTECCONS CONSTR. 543 699 16.2% 6.1% 0.0% 23.2% 7.7x 1.7x HOA BINH CONSTRUCTION 270 616 51.5% 5.4% 187.0% 44.5% 7.1x 2.7x

  Vietnam

  MEGAWIDE CONSTRUCTION 884 1,030 12.7% 8.8% 158.9% 8.7% 40.0x 3.1x HOUSE OF INVESTMENTS 81 679

  Philippine

  UNIQUE ENGINEERING 444 846 0.8% 7.1% 107.8% 12.7% 15.5x 1.9x

  CH. KARNCHANG PUBLIC 1,309 2,434

  PTPP 1,265 3,075 42% 6.8% 62% 11.6% 9.7x 1.1x WSKT 2,465 7,205 127% 8.6% 188% 31.0% 6.0x 2.4x WIKA 1,111 3,362 14% 4.6% 62% 8.2% 12.8x 1.0x ADHI 553 2,085 64% 3.4% 142% 9.1% 14.8x 1.3x

  Company Market Cap (USD mn) Total Asset (USD mn) Net Profit Growth Net Profit Margin Debt to Equity ROE P/E P/BV

• 18.9% 1.6% 49.7% 6.2% 6.9x 0.4x

  Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research

  ASEAN Constructor

  Sektor Konstruksi Indonesia di ASEAN ASEAN merupakan wilayah yang cukup menjanjikan bagi bisnis konstruksi. Kondisi ekonomi yang sedang berkembang serta kondisi infrastruktur yang masih banyak kekurangan membuat pertumbuhan sektor konstruksi di ASEAN cukup menarik. Secara spesifik, perusahaan konstruksi Indonesia memiliki kecenderungan jumlah aset yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan perusahaan dari negara lain di ASEAN. Secara rata-rata pertumbuhan laba perusahaan konstruksi Indonesia dan Vietnam lebih tinggi dibandingkan kompetitornya di ASEAN.

  PTPP memiliki spesialisasi konstruksi dalam bidang gedung dan perumahan. Namun , seiring masifnya pembangunan infrastruktur di Indonesia, PTPP telah mendiversifikasikan kontrak kontruksi ke bidang lainnya seperti jalan tol, pembangkit listrik, bandara dan infrastruktur lainnya. PTPP membagi segmen pendapatannya ke dalam kategori berikut: segmen konstruksi, EPC (engineering, procurement-construction), property & realty, energy, precast, and equipment rental.

  Berdasarkan nilai kontrak yang dikerjakan, PTPP merupakan perusahaan BUMN konstruksi terbesar kedua setelah WSKT. Sekitar 55,5% kontrak yang dikerjakan oleh PTPP merupakan proyek milik perusahaan BUMN. Sisanya sekitar 37,5% merupakan

proyek swasta dan 7,0% merupakan proyek pemerintah.

  Sekilas tentang PTPP PTPP merupakan salah satu perusahaan BUMN yang bergerak di bidang jasa konstruksi.

  Apr 12, 2018

  Company Report

• 9.6% 5.0% 164.6% 8.1% 22.6x 1.7x

  Company Report

  Apr 12, 2018

  New Contracts (IDR bn)

  Source: Company, NHKS Research

  Revenue (IDR bn)

  Source: Company, NHKS Research

  Revenue Breakdown

  Source: Company, NHKS Research

  Net Profit (IDR bn)

  Source: Company, NHKS Research

  Margin Ratios

  Source: Company, NHKS Research

  Total Debt (IDR bn)

  Source: Company, NHKS Research

  Performance Highlights

  Company Report

  Apr 12, 2018

  Multiple Valuation Forward P/E band | Last 1 year Dynamic Forward P/E band | Last 1 year

  Source: NHKS research Source: NHKS research

  Rating and target price update Target Price Revision Date Rating Target Price Last Price Consensus vs Last Price vs Consensus

  04/13/2017 Buy 4,960 (Dec 2017) 3,380 4,846 +46.7% +2.4% 09/01/2017 Buy 4,060 (Dec 2018) 2,770 4,374 +46.6% 7.2%

• 11/15/2017 Buy 4,770 (Dec 2018) 2,750 4,131 +73.5% +15.5%

  1/23/2018 Buy 4,770 (Dec 2018) 2,960 4,002 +61.1% +19.2% 4/12/2018 Buy 3,850 (Dec 2018) 2,770 3,971 +39.0% 3.1%

• Source: NHKS research, Bloomberg

  Analyst Coverage Rating Closing and Target Price

  Source: Bloomberg Source: NHKS research

  NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia (NHKS) stock ratings

  1. Period: End of year target price

  2. Rating system based on a stock’s absolute return from the date of publication : Greater than +15%

   Buy : -15% to +15%  Hold : Less than -15%  Sell

  Company Report

  Apr 12, 2018

  Summary of Financials

DISCLAIMER

INCOME STATEMENT BALANCE SHEET

  

This report and any electronic access hereto are restricted and intended only for the clients and related entity of PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia. This

report is only for information and recipient use. It is not reproduced, copied, or made available for others. Under no circumstances is it considered as a selling

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as a result of acting pursuant to the contents hereof. Neither is PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies, employees, nor agents liable for

errors, omissions, misstatements, negligence, inaccuracy arising herefrom. All rights reserved by PT NH Korindo Securities Indonesia ^{PTPP Summary Last Price (IDR) 2,770}

^{Target Price (IDR) 3,850 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E}

^{Rating: Buy ROE 12.8% 11.6% 11.7% 13.5% ROA 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.5% ROIC 14.6% 11.3% 11.2% 12.3% EBITDA/Equi ty 24.9% 20.7% 24.6% 25.5%}

^{In IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E EBITDA/As s ets 7.9% 7.1% 8.5% 8.6%}

^{Revenue 16,459 21,502 25,526 30,785 Ca s h Di vi dend (IDR bn) 307 437 530 681}

^{Growth (% y/y) 15.8% 30.6% 18.7% 20.6% Di vi dend Yi el d (%) 1.3% 2.7% 3.1% 4.0%}

^{Cos t of Revenue (14,002) (18,251) (21,632) (25,934) Pa yout Ra ti o (%) 30% 30% 30% 30%}

^{Gross Profit 2,457 3,251 3,894 4,851 DER 58% 62% 61% 60%}

^{Gross Margin 14.9% 15.1% 15.3% 15.8% Net Gea ri ng 176% 188% 160% 138%}

^{Opera ti ng Expens es (571) (903) (1,072) (1,405) LT Debt to Equi ty 29% 38% 37% 37%}

^{EBIT 1,886 2,348 2,822 3,446 Ca pi ta l i za ti on Ra ti o 37% 38% 38% 37%}

^{EBIT Margin 11.5% 10.9% 11.1% 11.2% Equi ty Ra ti o 35% 34% 35% 33%}

^{Depreci a ti on 96 238 880 844 Debt Ra ti o 20% 21% 21% 20%}

^{EBITDA 1,983 2,587 3,701 4,289 Fi na nci a l Levera ge 316% 292% 290% 297%}

^{EBITDA Margin 12.0% 12.0% 14.5% 13.9% Current Ra ti o 155% 144% 146% 133%}

^{Interes t Expens es (409) (653) (829) (853) Qui ck Ra ti o 88% 78% 81% 69%}

^{EBT 1,166 1,792 2,108 2,716 Ca s h Ra ti o 59% 46% 46% 35%}

^{Income Ta x (17) (68) (80) (104) Ca s h Convers i on Cycl e (76.1) (100.3) (97.7) (100.9)}

^{Mi nori ty Interes t (128) (271) (266) (348) Pa r Va l ue (IDR) 100 100 100 100}

^{Net Profit 1,020 1,453 1,762 2,264 Tota l Sha res (mn) 6,200 6,200 6,200 6,200}

^{Growth (% y/y) 37.8% 42.5% 21.2% 28.5% Sha re Pri ce (IDR) 3,810 2,640 2,770 2,770}

^{Net Profit Margin 6.2% 6.8% 6.9% 7.4% Ma rket Ca p (IDR tn) 23.6 16.4 17.2 17.2 In IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E}

^{Ca s h 9,424 9,587 10,273 10,076 Pri ce /Ea rni ngs 23.2x 11.3x 9.7x 7.6x}

^{Recei va bl es 4,598 6,510 7,825 9,549 Pri ce /Book Va l ue 2.2x 1.1x 1.1x 1.0x}

^{Inventori es 3,030 2,421 3,719 3,257 Pri ce/Revenue 1.4x 0.8x 0.7x 0.6x}

^{Total Current Assets 24,526 29,908 32,606 37,775 PE/EPS Growth 0.6x 0.3x 0.5x 0.3x}

^{Net Fi xed As s ets 5,128 8,944 11,658 15,149 EV/EBITDA 10.9x 7.1x 5.3x 4.9x}

^{Other Non Current As s ets 1,562 2,931 1,236 1,321 EV/EBIT 11.4x 7.8x 6.9x 6.0x}

^{Total Assets 31,216 41,783 45,500 54,245 EV (IDR bn) 21,562 18,392 19,463 20,838}

^{Pa ya bl es 10,398 14,506 15,364 20,589 Revenue CAGR (3-Yr) 12.2% 21.7% 24.7% 26.1%}

^{ST Debt 3,155 3,403 3,716 4,114 EPS CAGR (3-Yr) 34.5% 48.9% 42.6% 36.6%}

^{Other Current Li a b. 2,312 2,790 3,269 3,748 Ba s i c EPS (IDR) 165 234 284 365}

^{LT Debt 3,083 5,419 5,917 6,550 Di l uted EPS (IDR) 206 234 284 365}

^{Other Non Current Li a b. 1,489 1,421 1,424 1,445 BVPS (IDR) 1,738 2,297 2,550 2,871}

^{Total Liabilities 20,438 27,540 29,689 36,447 Revenue PS (IDR) 2,655 3,468 4,117 4,965}

^{Shareholders' Equity 10,778 14,243 15,810 17,798 DPS (IDR) 50}

^{In IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E}

^{71 86 110 Net Income 1,020 1,453 1,762 2,264 DCF (IDR bn) Deprec & Amorti za ti on 96 238 880 844 NOPAT 1,858 2,259 2,714 3,314 Chg. In Worki ng Ca pi ta l (89) 12 (676) 338 +Depr./Amor. 96 238 880 844}

^{CFO 1,027 1,703 1,965 3,445 -CAPEX (1,305) (2,749) (3,594) (4,334)}

^{Ca pex (1,305) (2,749) (3,594) (4,334) -Incr. (Decr.) i n Worki ng Ca p. (89) 12 (676) 338}

^{CFI (1,867) (4,144) (1,896) (4,399) (Unl evered) FCFF 560 (240) (676) 161}

^{Di vi dends Pa i d (177) (377) (437) (530) WACC}

^{Net Borrowi ng (PMT) 2,707 1,483 811 1,032 Cos t of Debt (Ta x Adj.) 10.1% 7.8% 8.3% 8.7%}

^{CFF 6,899 2,696 616 756 Cos t of Equi ty (COE) 9.5% 10.2% 12.4% 12.7%}

^{Net Changes in Cash 6,060 255 686 (197) WACC (%) 9.6% 9.4% 10.9% 11.2%}

^{RIM Sprea d (FROE-COE) (%) 10.3% 3.3% 0.0% 1.6% Res i dua l Income (IDR bn) 532 356 (1) 254}

^{By Geography % Shareholders % Equi ty Cha rge (IDR bn) 488 1,097 1,763 2,009}

^{Indones i a 73.7 Republ i c of Indones i a 51.0 EVA Uni ted Sta tes 5.9 Norges Ba nk 3.9 Inves ted Ca pi ta l (IDR bn) 8,388 17,017 23,065 25,443 Norwa y 5.6 TT Interna ti ona l Funds 3.2 ROIC-WACC (%) 12.5% 3.9% 0.9% 1.9% Uni ted Ki ngdom 4.8 Va ngua rd 1.3 EVA (IDR bn) 1,051 666 200 472}

  CASH FLOW STATEMENT DCF, RIM & EVA OWNERSHIP PROFITABILITY & STABILITY _{April 10, 2018 Dec 2018 Analyst: Raphon Prima}